Tag: Old

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.

After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction
Borderlands Box Office Prediction

It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.

I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.

Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.

Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.

Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Borderlands

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

6. Trap

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.

Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.

Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.

Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.

Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Trap

It has been a quarter century since The Sixth Sense was a box office phenomenon that turned writer/director M. Night Shyamalan into a household name. The Academy took notice and rewarded the suspense thriller with six nominations including Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It lost each of those races to American Beauty.

Since then, the sole Oscar nod for an M. Night joint is 2004’s The Village in Original Score (it fell short to Finding Neverland). In fact, his filmography has garnered more Razzie attention in the last two decades with Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender, and After Earth.

Trap is the filmmaker’s latest with Josh Hartnett as a serial killer boxed in at a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Costars include Saleka Shyamalan, Hayley Mills, and Alison Pill.

Like his most recent tales Old and Knock at the Cabin, critical reaction isn’t near strong enough for awards buzz. The RT rating for Trap is just 49%. On the flip side, the buzz probably isn’t poor enough for the Razzies to notice. Some reviews are going out of their way to applaud Josh Hartnett (similar to how they lauded James McAvoy’s work in Shyamalan’s Split). Don’t expect Academy voters to put him in the convo for Actor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Trap Box Office Prediction

M. Night Shyamalan and Warner Bros hope Trap fills movie houses on August 2nd. The thriller casts Josh Hartnett as a serial killer trying to thwart a manhunt while attending a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Mr. Shyamalan’s own daughter Saleka plays the artist at the venue. Hayley Mills (known for The Parent Trap some 63 years ago) and Alison Pill costar.

The writer/director experienced a mini career resurgence starting with 2017’s Split. His last two efforts haven’t generated huge numbers, but have been profitable due to low budgets. 2021’s Old started with $16 million and then grossed $48 million overall domestically. Last year’s Knock at the Cabin premiered to $14 million and $34 million total stateside. Both had reported price tags in the high teens to $20 million.

I haven’t seen the cost for Trap but its gimmick of a one place setting can’t be too expensive. Shyamalan’s pics do their business based on his name though there’s certainly limits compared to his early 2000s heyday. I doubt this will make much more than his aforementioned predecessors so let’s go high teens to low 20s.

Trap opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Harold and the Purple Crayon prediction, click here:

Harold and the Purple Crayon Box Office Prediction

February 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Channing Tatum sashays back into multiplexes in his star making role with threequel Magic Mike’s Last Dance while Titanic re-releases on the occasion of its 25th anniversary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Magic Mike’s Last Dance Box Office Prediction
Titanic 25th Anniversary Box Office Prediction

In what could be considered an upset, I have Titanic edging Mike for the top spot. Here’s why. There are reports that the latter is only releasing on approximately 1500 screens. If that holds true, it would significantly impact its earning power. When I assumed Mr. Tatum would arrive in the typical 3000 venues, I had it making just under $18 million. I now have it notably under that projection.

That may clear the way for the Titanic re-release to be #1 (giving James Cameron the first place picture in eight out of the past nine weekends). Valentine’s Day audiences and the nostalgia factor could get it there.

As for holdovers, M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin definitely came in at the lower end of its anticipated range (more on that below). I believe it could plummet from first to fifth with 80 for Brady and Avatar: The Way of Water each slipping only one spot. Cabin might even fall outside of the high five depending on the eighth frame dip for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Titanic 25th Anniversary

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

2. Magic Mike’s Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

3. 80 for Brady

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. Knock at the Cabin

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (February 3-5)

As mentioned, Knock at the Cabin had a fairly soft entry on the charts with $14.1 million. While it managed to knock Avatar from its seven-week reign on the throne, it fell far under my $23.6 million forecast. The glass half full? It cost a meager $20 million to make. The glass half empty? With a C Cinemascore grade, I foresee a sophomore plummet close to 60%. In the summer of 2021, Shyamalan’s predecessor Old managed to top Cabin with just under $17 million. Simply put, this should’ve done more considering it had less competition and better reviews.

80 for Brady had a respectable start in second with $12.7 million. Released a day after Tom Brady announced his retirement (again), the legend packed octogenarian comedy couldn’t match my $15.5 million take. It will hope for smallish declines in the weekends ahead.

Avatar: The Way of Water was third with $11.3 million, in line with my $11.8 million prediction. After its eighth outing, the gargantuan tally grew to $636 million.

Fourth place belonged to Puss in Boots: The Last Wish with $7.8 million (I said $8.9 million) for an impressive $151 million after seven weeks.

I incorrectly had the concert pic BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas outside of the top five with no projection. It was fifth with $5.1 million.

A Man Called Otto was sixth with $4.3 million compared to my $4.8 million. The gross is a solid $53 million.

Finally, while I’m in predictin’ mode – Eagles 38, Chiefs 24. That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Knock at the Cabin Review

Sunshine causes lingering pain and brief moments of delight in M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin, a dark and grim adaptation of Paul G. Tremblay’s 2018 novel. The filmmaker’s weakest tendencies are present but don’t arise as often in the mostly one space setting. Clunky dialogue and bizarre character choices associated with Shyamalan are kept to a minimum. There’s no rapper bafflingly named Mid-Sized Sedan like in his predecessor Old. The apocalyptic theme is hardly new though it generates a respectable amount of tension.

It also gets to the point in scene one. Leonard (Dave Bautista) may look like a bouncer, but he teaches second grade. We learn this as he introduces himself to seven-year-old Wen (Kristen Cui) while she’s catching grasshoppers outside a vacation property in remote Pennsylvania. Wen is the adopted daughter of her two Dads Eric (Jonathan Groff) and Andrew (Ben Aldridge). Leonard insists on forcefully entering the cabin with three associates all sporting old school weapons. They’re not your typical home invaders: nurse Sabrina (Nikki Amuka-Bird) and cook Adriane (Abby Quinn) have kind demeanors like Leonard. Only ill-tempered Redmond (Rupert Grint, all grown up from Harry Potter Weasley fame) seems comfortable breaking and entering.

Dad and Dad don’t welcome their presence and they’re tied up. Eric becomes concussed in the process (hence the sunlight hurting him). The quartet explains that the trio face a gut wrenching choice. They must sacrifice a family member in a short period of time. If they don’t, the world’s population will end in a series of catastrophes. Eric, Andrew, and Wen will survive and everyone else will perish. The hostages are understandably skeptical. Their detainers (who claim they’ve all experienced similar visions of devastation) aren’t afraid to display how serious they are. This includes news footage that shows they might be onto something.

The bulk of Cabin is reserved for us deciding whether Leonard and company are telling the truth. We do get flashbacks of Eric and Andrew’s relationship before and after they bring Wen into their lives. They feel somewhat superfluous yet they are fleeting interludes in the appreciatively brisk 100 minutes. Bautista is playing against type. You would think of him as a teacher in a silly comedy where he displays his bulk. This is far from that and his work is restrained in a positive way. All the performance are adequate. Shyamalan’s track record is spotty with child performances. He is responsible for guiding some great ones (think Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense or Spencer Treat Clark in Unbreakable). Cui’s is on the plus side.

I was a captive audience member for much of the stay. As it continued, I found this surprisingly anticlimactic (especially for something about the Earth maybe ending). Shyamalan has resurrected his career by self-financing his pictures and turning a tidy profit. While that’s admirable, he seems limited by the budget considering all that’s occurring outside the cabin. Like a mid-sized sedan, it’s dependable for awhile until it isn’t.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Knock at the Cabin

Nearly a quarter century ago, M. Night Shyamalan’s phenom The Sixth Sense scared up six Oscar nominations including Best Picture and Director. It didn’t win any, but it established the filmmaker as a force at the box office. His fortunes have certainly ebbed and flowed in the 21st century with financial hits and misses. As far as awards attention, only 2004’s The Village achieved another Academy nod for its score.

Shyamalan’s latest is the apocalyptic thriller Knock at the Cabin with Dave Bautista headlining the cast. Based on Paul G. Tremblay’s 2018 novel, Knock‘s embargo is up today ahead of its Friday release. The results are pretty encouraging with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score. At the low point in his filmography, he had a string of flops and critical bombs (Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender, After Earth) that racked up plenty of Golden Raspberry mentions.

Cabin is ahead of Shyamalan’s two predecessors Glass and Old as far as the RT meter. It isn’t as high (77%) as comeback vehicle Split from 2017. While Bautista is being complimented for his performance, I don’t see this being welcomed in any of the Academy races a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Knock at the Cabin Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures is counting on audiences to take a Knock at the Cabin when it debuts February 3rd. The latest film from M. Night Shyamalan, it’s based on the 2018 novel by Paul G. Tremblay. A thriller blending horror elements, Dave Bautista is a believer in the imminent apocalypse holding a family hostage. Costars include Jonathan Groff, Ben Aldridge, Nikki Amuka-Bird, Kristen Cui, Abby Quinn, and Rupert Grint.

This looks to be the picture to knock Avatar: The Way of Water off its lengthy perch at #1 and should do so with room to spare. Shyamalan, after a career resurgence that kicked into high gear with Split, is one of the few filmmakers whose name can sell tickets (especially in this genre). This is his first R rated title since 2008’s The Happening. His predecessor Old (2021) opened in the summer of 2021 with just under $17 million.

Cabin, with less competition than Old had, should exceed that starting gross. A take of over $20 million is doable.

Knock at the Cabin opening weekend prediction: $23.6 million

For my 80 for Brady prediction, click here:

80 for Brady Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Corsage

In 2017, Vicky Krieps drew critical praise for her work opposite Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, but she did not gather any Oscar attention. Recently seen in M. Night Shyamalan’s Old, the actress headlines the historical revisionist biopic Corsage. Krieps plays Empress Elisabeth of Austria circa the late 1870s. From director Marie Kreutzer, the pic is receiving pleasing notices from its Cannes screening. The result is  a 100% current Rotten Tomatoes score.

IFC Films has already picked distribution rights and I assume they’ll mount a campaign. The reviews are strong enough that Krieps could be at least on the radar screen for Best Actress. Production Design and Costume Design are possibilities as well.

The real question is whether this generates enough buzz to be in the mix a few months from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Old Review

M. Night Shyamalan’s latest is Old and it plays like a long Twilight Zone episode which rapidly puts its subjects in that time frame of their lives. If you’ve seen the trailer or TV spots, what you see is essentially what you get. The writer/director is responsible for putting this uninteresting group on a gorgeous beach. That’s in the figurative sense since he created them. It’s also in the literal way because Shyamalan casts himself as the driver who takes them there.

Guy (Gael Garcia Bernal) and Prisca Cappa (Vicky Krieps) are on the verge of splitting up and they take their 6-year-old boy and 11-year-old daughter on a tropical excursion before they break the news. They know this is meant to be a short-lived paradise, but they get more than they bargained for. You know how parents say their youngsters act like teenagers before they should? It happens here.

The Cappas are taken to a secluded area of the island for R & R. Joining them are a surgeon (Rufus Sewell) and his snotty wife (Abbey Lee) and their 6-year-old going on 11…13…15 (eventually played by Eliza Scanlen). There’s a nurse (Ken Leung) and his wife (Nikki Amuka-Bird) that’s prone to seizures. In the latest example of eye rolling character choices, we also have a hemophiliac rapper (Aaron Pierre) who goes by the name of Mid-Sized Sedan. This might an even more cringe worthy use of a hip hop reference than James McAvoy’s MC skills in Split. 

Once placed in the breathtaking locale, all the vacationers discover they’re aging approximately one year every half hour. This is, of course, first noticed with the children. The Cappa kids morph into Thomasin McKenzie and Alex Wolff. Their elders fall prey to the typical signs of advanced age – disease, Alzheimers, low calcium content. Poor Mid-Sized Sedan never gets the chance to trade in for a cooler sounding vehicle name.

In Shyamalan’s best features (The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, Signs), the auteur created pretty interesting characters to place in his twisty tales. That is just not the case with this group. Even a coasting Shyamalan is reliable for a few thrills, but they don’t roll in too often.

Too much of Old is filled with his clunky dialogue. The kids talk like adults before they actually are a few hours later. The surprise developments toward the end (which aren’t all that shocking) hint at a larger picture. They may have been engrossing had we not been subjected to an hour and a half of watching this dull lot waste away. This could have made a nifty Twilight Zone episode because that program ran 30 minutes. In Shyamalan’s labored production, it feels closer to a year.

** (out of four)

August 13-15 Box Office Predictions

After a weekend where The Suicide Squad majorly performed under expectations, there are three titles opening Friday and the studios are hoping this isn’t a trend. Ryan Reynolds stars in the video game inspired sci-fi comedy Free Guy and it should manage to top the charts. We also have horror sequel Don’t Breathe 2 and the Aretha Franklin biopic Respect with Jennifer Hudson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Free Guy Box Office Prediction

Don’t Breathe 2 Box Office Prediction

Respect Box Office Prediction

With Free Guy pegged in the low to mid 20s, there shouldn’t be much question that it kicks off in first. I have Breathe achieving less than half of what its 2016 predecessor accomplished and that should be good enough for second place.

The real battle could be for third. As mentioned, The Suicide Squad was a dud (more on that below). I’m assuming it drops about 60% which puts it just over $10 million. The third weekend of Jungle Cruise and premiere of Respect could be right behind that, but it could be close.

Here’s how I foresee the top five shaking out:

1. Free Guy

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

2. Don’t Breathe 2

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

3. The Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

4. Jungle Cruise

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Respect

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

Box Office Results (August 6-8)

The underperformance of The Suicide Squad generated plenty of attention this weekend. The reboot of the DCEU franchise earned just $26.2 million and that’s well below my projection of $40.8 million. I could go on, but I already did a separate blog post on it. You can find it here:

Squad Goals Thwarted

Disney’s Jungle Cruise didn’t fall quite as much as other pics in their sophomore frames in recent weeks. The Dwayne Johnson/Emily Blunt family adventure made $15.8 million (in line with my $15.5 million prediction) for a $65 million ten day take.

M. Night Shyamalan’s Old was third with $4.1 million in its third frame -a bit more than my $3.5 million projection for $38 million total.

Black Widow was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $3.7 million) as it stands at a COVID era best $174 million.

Stillwater rounded out the top five in its second outing with $2.8 million. I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It’s at a mere $9 million.

Finally, The Green Knight was sixth with $2.5 million (I went with $2.7 million) for $12 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…