Tag: Netflix

August 22-24 Box Office Predictions

We’re in the dog days of August as Weapons seeks to three-peat at #1 this weekend though a fascinating challenger could emerge depending on Netflix’s reporting. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event looks to capitalize on its massively successful animated streaming numbers with a Saturday and Sunday engagement of theatrical screenings. We also have Ethan Coen’s dark comedy Honey Don’t! out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event Box Office Prediction
Honey Don’t! Box Office Prediction

KPop Demon Hunters is already the highest viewed Netflix animated picture in history. The streamer decided to give it the silver screen sing-along treatment this Saturday and Sunday only. Here’s the catch: Netflix usually doesn’t report their numbers. I think they could make an exception due to the unprecedented nature of this release. If they do, I believe low teens is doable and maybe even more. If it manages to post a 1st or 2nd place debut, I would think Netflix would want the bragging rights. We shall see what they decide.

As for Don’t!, my lowly $1.8 million projection won’t get it in the top five regardless of whether KPop unveils its grosses. After receiving middling reviews from Cannes and being put out on a meager 1200 screens, look for this to fade rapidly.

That leaves holdovers and Weapons may see a drop in the mid 30s to repeat at #1. In fact, the top five should remain the same quintet if KPop isn’t in the mix. However, I suspect Nobody 2 might have the largest percentage drop and that could result in a fall from third to fifth (or fourth to sixth). That would allow The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 to each rise a spot with Freakier Friday either remaining runner-up or being third.

Here’s my top 6 take with the caveat that KPop‘s placement might not occur:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

**2. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. Nobody

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

Weapons easily pummeled the competition yet again in its sophomore frame with $24.4 million, right in line with my $24.9 million call. Zach Cregger’s critically hailed horror thriller is up to $88 million after ten days.

Freakier Friday was second in weekend #2 with $14.2 million, slightly exceeding my forecast of $13 million. The Disney sequel has made $54 million.

Action sequel Nobody 2 with Bob Odenkirk opened at the lower end of expectations with $9.2 million, failing to catch my $11.3 million projection. While it managed to outdo its 2021 predecessor, the original faced COVID challenges.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was fourth with $9 million (I said $7.5 million). The MCU pic’s tally is $247 million after four weeks.

The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. The 29% decline meant it surpassed my $5.5 million take. The animated sequel has earned $53 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Night Always Comes

Currently on the big screen with The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Vanessa Kirby stars in Night Always Comes this weekend. Based on a 2021 bestseller by Willy Vlautin, the crime thriller is out on Netflix. The supporting cast includes Jennifer Jason Leigh, Zack Gottsagen, Stephen James, Randall Park, Julia Fox, Michael Kelly, and Eli Roth.

A previous Best Actress nominee for Pieces of a Woman (also a Netflix pickup), Kirby’s newest vehicle won’t drive awards talk. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 62 and that won’t cut it with voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event Box Office Prediction

Netflix is taking the rare step next weekend of capitalizing on already existing content when they release KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event. Released on the streamer in June, the musical fantasy has become a family friendly phenomenon on the service. Hunters will get the “sing-along” treatment (something usually reserved for Disney) with a two night only event on Saturday, August 23rd and Sunday, August 24th.

Already Netflix’s most viewed animated offering ever, Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans direct. Voiceover work is provided by Arden Cho, Ahn Hyo-seop, May Hong, Ji-young Yoo, Yunjin Kim, Daniel Dae Kim, Ken Jeong, and Lee Byung-hun. Angling for Oscar nominations in Animated Feature and Original Song (single “Golden” in particular), the question is how many kiddos will successfully drag their parents to material available in the living room and on the iPad.

I think this could reach $10M+ in its two days of release and my hunch is to go with an over performance in the low teens (even with the challenge of youngsters returning to school).

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Honey Don’t! prediction, click here:

Honey Don’t! Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Fixed

Netflix has put out Fixed this week and it marks the first R rated animation effort from Sony. Genndy Tartakovsky, best known for helming the Hotel Transylvania franchise, directs. The voice cast for the tale of a dog about to be neutered includes Adam DeVine, Idris Elba, Kathryn Hahn, Fred Armisen, Beck Bennett, and Bobby Moynihan.

Originally set for distribution by Warner Bros until they cut it loose, Netflix picked up the rights and reviews are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 63% with Metacritic at only 51. If Sausage Party couldn’t break into the Academy’s Animated Feature quintet with better marks, that leaves little hope for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Apocalypse in the Tropics

Apocalypse in the Tropics first screened last August in Venice before the playing the fest circuit over the fall. From Petra Costa, whose 2019 predecessor The Edge of Democracy was an Oscar nominee for Documentary Feature, the political doc about the rise of Brazilian President Bolsonaro is out in limited fashion this weekend. A Netflix bow follows on Monday, July 14th.

I would anticipate the streamer will mount a serious campaign for Costa’s work to generate her a second nomination. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 94% with a 79 on Metacritic. That’s certainly strong enough to keep Apocalypse in mind for your forecasts over the coming months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Left-Handed Girl

Anora was the belle of the Academy’s 97th ball last year. Sean Baker became the first person to win four Oscars in a single evening for Best Picture and his direction, screenplay, and editing. He could become a nominee at the 98th ceremony via Left-Handed Girl, a Taiwanese family drama that he co-wrote and produced. His frequent collaborator Shih-Ching Tsou shares screenplay duties and directs. It premiered at Cannes with Netflix handling streaming distribution domestically. The cast includes Janel Tsai, Shih-Yuan Ma, Nine Ye, Brando Huang, and Akio Chen.

The Rotten Tomatoes rating stands at 95% with Metacritic at 76. If Taiwan makes this the hopeful for International Feature Film, it stands a solid shot at nabbing one of the five slots. I have it 8th in my first predictions for IFF posted yesterday. If it were to make the quintet, Girl would be the fourth Taiwanese entry to be nominated and first since 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (which won). Scoring a victory likely isn’t in the cards for Tsou, Baker and company. A nod is doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: KPop Demon Hunters

KPop Demon Hunters hit Netflix a couple weeks back and the animated feature’s title is accurate. The musical fantasy finds an all-girl group moonlighting as crime fighters. Maggie Kang and Chris Applehans direct with a voice cast including Arden Cho, Ayn Hyo-seop, May Hong, Ji-young Yoo, Yunjin Kim, Daniel Dae Kim, Ken Jeong, and Lee Byung-hun.

Midway through 2025, we don’t have any slam dunks in the Animated Feature race. Pixar’s Elio is a box office disappointment with good but not great reviews. Potential heavy hitters like Zootopia 2 from the Mouse House and Little Amélie or The Character of Rain from GKIDS await.

However, Hunters has surprised with strong reviews and high viewing numbers on the streamer. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 97% with Metacritic at 77. That’s certainly solid enough for it to play in Animated Feature. It might come down to the campaign that Netflix mounts as their upcoming In Your Dreams will vie for the prize as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

May 30-June 1 Box Office Predictions

Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Karate Kid: Legends Box Office Prediction
Bring Her Back Box Office Prediction

The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.

Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.

I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.

Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $66.4 million

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $28.7 million

3. Karate Kid: Legends

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

4. Bring Her Back

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (May 23-26)

The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.

While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.

Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.

Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.

Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.

The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.

Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.

Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Karate Kid: Legends Box Office Prediction

Sony hopes that Karate Kid: Legends kicks into high gear at the box office when it debuts May 30th. The sixth overall feature in the series sees Ralph Macchio from the first three installments (1984-1989) and Jackie Chan from 2010’s version in mentorship mode. Ben Wang stars with a supporting cast including Joshua Jackson, Sadie Stanley, and Ming-Na Wen. Jonathan Entwistle directs.

The franchise has been dormant theatrically for 15 years after the Chan version grossed over $350 million worldwide and $176 million stateside. However, the property has been fresh in the minds of viewers courtesy of Netflix’s Cobra Kai. That popular show just ended its seven year run and featured Macchio as well as numerous other characters from the movies.

That exposure should mean a fairly decent start. I wouldn’t discount it reaching over $25 million though I’ll project low 20s.

Karate Kid: Legends opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million

For my Bring Her Back prediction, click here:

Bring Her Back Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Nonnas

Dramedy Nonnas is available for order on Netflix this weekend with Vince Vaughn as a new restauranteur attempting to honor the legacy of his mother. Susan Sarandon, Lorraine Bracco, Talia Shire, and Brenda Vaccaro are the title characters cooking the food. Linda Cardellini, Drea de Matteo, Joe Manganiello, Michael Rispoli, and Campbell Scott are also part of the ensemble. Stephen Chbosky, known for The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Wonder, directs.

Several critics are being kind and complimenting the Nonnas’ heart. Rotten Tomatoes (which probably aren’t available for consumption in the pic’s venue) is at 79% with a more lukewarm 57 Metacritic rating. So despite some reviews saying this is likable enough, this shouldn’t be on the menu for awards prognosticators. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…