Tag: Netflix

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Best Actor Race

My detailed look at six of the top Oscar categories – Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies – arrives at Best Actor. If you missed the posts covering the supporting races, you can find them here:

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actress Race
2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actor Race

At this late October/early November stage of forecasting in the previous three years, my picks in the lead acting competitions have been more accurate than the supporting ones.

In 2019 at this juncture, I managed to correctly identify four of the five eventual nominees: winner Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). The fifth was Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory and he was listed in Other Possibilities.

Three of five was the story in 2020 and 2021. Two years ago, I had The Father‘s Anthony Hopkins (who won), Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Gary Oldman (Mank) pegged with Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) and Steven Yeun (Minari) as possibles.

You may remember that Will Smith took gold last year for King Richard. I had him correctly called with two months remaining on the calendar. Same with Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog and Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) was mentioned in Other Possibilities. Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) had yet to enter my top ten.

Had a certain slap heard around the world not occurred, it’s totally possible that Will Smith (Emancipation) might be listed in my top 5. However, with his current ban from attending the ceremony, I question whether he could make a return to the ballot so quickly after the controversy. Therefore he’s not in my top 10. We’ll see if the reviews (coming soon) change the dynamic.

We do have a frontrunner and that’s Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Since its Venice and Toronto fest bows, he’s drawn raves. This is also a comeback narrative that the Academy should fall for. I’ve had Fraser listed in 1st for several weeks and I see no reason to change that.

There are two viable runners-up in Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Austin Butler (Elvis). I’ve been switching them in 2nd and 3rd place over the past few posts. Farrell is 2nd because I think Banshees stands a better shot at a BP nod. You have to go back to 2009 and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) where the Best Actor recipient’s movie didn’t achieve BP inclusion. If Elvis makes the big dance – an argument could be made that Butler is Fraser’s most serious competition to shake the race up.

After those three names, it could be a free for all for the final two slots. The only other performer I had listed in 1st place other than Fraser was Hugh Jackman for The Son. This was before it premiered at the festivals and garnered middling reviews. Now the question is whether Jackman gets in at all.

Someone who has fared well on the fest circuit is Bill Nighy for Living. Sony Pictures will need to mount a spirited campaign, but they’re good at that kinda thing. I’m starting to feel better about Nighy than Jackman.

Diego Calva is the biggest remaining question mark for Babylon. Screenings coming up in two weeks should help answer his viability. There’s a pair of indie performances that could bubble up if critics groups assist – Paul Mescal for Aftersun and Jeremy Pope in The Inspection. One possible hindrance for both of them is their movies are both A24 and that studio could be distracted with crowning Fraser. We could see foreign film leads Song Kang-ho (Broker) and Park Hae-il (Decision to Leave) make a play.

Netflix is apparently going in on a spirited campaign for Adam Sandler in Hustle. I have a hard time seeing that pan out (especially since he couldn’t get in for Uncut Gems). The streamer could also focus on Christian Bale (The Pale Blue Eye) or Adam Driver (White Noise). Bale also has Amsterdam, but it failed with critics and audiences.

Finally… there’s Tom Cruise. A three-time nominee, it’s been 23 years since he was in the mix. And a little pic called Top Gun: Maverick was easily the largest blockbuster of his career and the runaway hit of 2022. I’m not ready to put him in my five. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up there.

Here’s my current state of this race:

1 . Brendan Fraser, The Whale (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (E)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Song Kang-ho, Broker

Best Actress is up next!

The School for Good and Evil Review

The most prominent wicked force in The School for Good and Evil wants to eradicate the educational institution forever and all the characters that inhabit it. Once that was revealed, I found myself rooting for the villain’s plot to succeed. That would mean no sequels to this misguided and criminally long Netflix adaptation of Soman Chainani’s 2013 fantasy novel. There’s been several follow-ups to the written work. I won’t hold back my wish to see no more of the adventures that Cate Blanchett’s narration can’t even save.

A prologue hints at the convoluted and overstuffed plot and unimpressive CG to come. Brothers Rhian and Rafal (both played by Kit Young) have formed The School for Good and Evil (even the title could use some imagination). It’s essentially a training ground for youngsters to become players in well-known fairytales. Rafal soon double-crosses his sibling and wants all the unholy power to… be more evil? Change the happy endings of our celebrated books to tragic ones? The stakes were never clear to me or perhaps I just stopped caring.

Many moons later and away from the school in a small village, Sophie (Sophia Anne Caruso) is obsessed with princesses like Cinderella. Bored with her surroundings, she longs for acceptance to the fantastical academy. Her best friend is Agatha (Sofia Wylie) and the townspeople are convinced she’s a witch. Unlike Sophie, she has no designs on attending anywhere where Evil would likely be her team. Soon enough, they are transported there and (surprise!) Agatha is dropped off on the Good side with Sophie on the Evil one.

The friends are certain their assignments are a mistake. The School Master (Laurence Fishburne), Good School Professor Dovey (Kerry Washington), and Evil Department Head Leonora Lesso (Charlize Theron) aren’t so sure. Errors such as this don’t occur. Beyond their placements, there’s an Ivy League vibe happening with legacy admissions. Sons of Prince Charming and King Arthur are undergrads. The latter is Tedros (Jamie Flatters) and Sophie wants to prove her Princess bonafides by charming him. Yet he might have eyes for Agatha.

Much of the film is devoted to Sophie and Agatha figuring out their roles at the school. The nearly 150 minute runtime to do so is bloated. Paul Feig, director of Bridesmaids and A Simple Favor, knows how to keep comedies and satirical mysteries moving at a reasonably snappy pace. That’s a skill forgotten in this overstuffed and often garish looking experience. Only Wylie’s performance is worth a bit of praise. I know overacting is supposed to happen in this genre but with a poor screenplay, it’s not a good look for a lot of the cast (that includes Theron and Washington).

When the students achieve their magical abilities, their fingers illuminate. Kinda like E.T.! Unlike that 40-year-old alien’s pic, what’s missing is the sense of wonder. The third act culminates at a fancy ball where a campy vibe and halfway decent makeup effects hint at what could’ve been. In case you couldn’t tell, I didn’t have a ball at The School for Good and Evil.

*1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: The School for Good and Evil

Currently among the top streaming pictures on Netflix is The School for Good and Evil, Paul Feig’s adaptation of Soman Chainani’s 2013 fairytale fantasy novel. Hoping for a Potter like franchise, the jury is still out on whether that occurs. Sophia Anne Caruso and Sofia Wylie are the leads with a supporting cast of familiar faces including Charlize Theron, Kerry Washington, Laurence Fishburne, Michelle Yeoh, Rob Delaney, and Patti LuPone.

School was released in select theaters and that qualifies it for awards consideration. Given its setting and influences, categories like Costume Design or Production Design or Makeup and Hairstyling are feasible. However, the critical reception this has generated is troubling. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 35% and the Audience Score is a meh 69%.

My guess is voters will hold back including this for any races. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Curse of Bridge Hollow Review

Marlon Wayans is a frequent presence in comedic horror mashups and they’ve been of the R rated variety with Scary Movie and its first sequel and A Haunted House and its follow-up. On the Netflix circuit, The Curse of Bridge Hollow ditches the scatological humor for a family friendly concoction about a Halloween obsessed town where the decorations come to life. It’s not hard to envision Adam Sandler or Eddie Murphy in the Dad role that Wayans fills. In fact, Sandler mined similar territory recently with Hubie Halloween. This one isn’t exactly a treat, but I found it more tolerable than that one.

Howard Gordon (Wayans) is a science teacher transported from Brooklyn to Bridge Hollow, a small New England town that looks quaint but is far from it. The residents wear their Patriots jerseys loudly and talk even more thunderously about the town’s spooky history. It involves the tale of Stingy Jack, whose mythology gave us the Jack-o’-lantern. You don’t want to wake him and that’s precisely what Howard’s teenage daughter Sydney does when they settle into their haunted house. She’s played by Priah Ferguson, a consistent bright spot on Netflix’s Stranger Things. The father/daughter relationship is a cliched one with Howard as the overbearing holiday skeptic who just needs to listen more. Mom (Kelly Rowland) really gets the short shrift. Her defining character trait is that she bakes inedible vegan desserts. The screenplay could’ve done better than “the wife can’t cook” material for the former Destiny’s Child and Freddy vs. Jason star.

Priah and Dad must get over their differences as they battle a slew of creatures of the crawly and skeletal variety. The special effects aren’t half bad. Hollow is aimed squarely at delighting kids and placating the adult supervision. It’s an easy and breezy watch and Wayans seems committed to the part. That’s more than I could say for Murphy, who appeared downright bored in The Haunted Mansion. Ferguson, on the other hand, doesn’t quite get to display the personality that’s so winning on her smash hit role as Erica Sinclair. A few chuckles come from a supporting cast including Rob Riggle, John Michael Higgins, and Lauren Lapkus as Bridge Hollow’s very New England accented Mayor.

Jeff Wadlow, whose traditional scary movies Truth or Dare and Fantasy Island were subpar, directs. Bridge Hollow is better than either of them. I realize all of my compliments likely sound hollow. That’s not inaccurate, but youngsters could do worse than dialing this up and the more seasoned viewer shouldn’t curse themselves for having to watch it.

**1/2 (out of four)

Mr. Harrigan’s Phone Review

Mr. Harrigan’s Phone is the second best Blumhouse Production this year with a phone featured prominently in the plot and adapted from a work by Stephen King or someone in his immediate family. That might be praiseworthy if there were ten, but there’s just The Black Phone (stemming from a story by Stephen’s son Joe Hill) and this one from Dad.

In 2003, young Craig (Colin O’Brien) loses his mother and leads a lonely life in Maine with his father (Joe Tippett). The grieving is broken up when the wealthiest man in the state Mr. Harrigan (Donald Sutherland) gives him a job. Craig travels to his mansion three times a week to read thick novels to the elderly listener whose eyesight is weak – from Crime and Punishment to Lady Chatterly’s Lover and Heart of Darkness. These classic tales hold more meaning for Craig as five years pass and he grows into Jaeden Martell (from a far stronger King adaptation It). So does his friendship with Harrigan as they both are seeking meaningful companionship.

By 2008, a bad apple threatens to poison the bond. That would be Apple’s iPhone. The new device is all the rage and Craig eventually convinces his dad to get him one. This game of telephone continues when the teenager gifts one to his billionaire reading club compadre. The once uninterrupted reading sessions are briefly disrupted by the device’s easy ability to distract.

It takes an unnecessarily long time to reach this point, but (spoiler alert?) Harrigan dies (something revealed in the trailer). Craig makes the seemingly kind gesture of placing the departed’s Steve Jobs application in the casket. Saved under his contacts as The Pirate King (would’ve been a better title than this extremely generic one), Craig soon discovers a potentially supernatural connection with his late friend.

Phone comes from John Lee Hancock, whose biggest hits have been inspirational sports dramas like The Rookie and The Blind Side. This could’ve used a lot more pep as this is a frequently drab affair. There were creepier consistencies in his last picture The Little Things, which I found far more recommendable than this. In fact, this is about as frightening as The Rookie or The Blind Side. 

Sutherland and Martell are of no fault. Their chemistry makes the first half or so far more tolerable. The film’s concept probably better fit the short story format that the legendary author framed it in. When Harrigan is buried, this becomes a ho hum revenge saga with a boring high school bully (Cyrus Arnold) and then a kindly teacher (Kirby Howell-Baptiste) who is wronged. It also stumbles with its attempts to say something about our overuse of technology.

Despite the chemistry of the two leads, the screenplay from Hancock is a disservice to them. I took the novel approach with Mr. Harrigan’s Phone – meaning reading one by King or one of the ones Craig recites would have been a wiser use of my minutes.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2022 should be the year where Netflix makes significant waves in the Best Animated Feature category at the Oscars and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is its lead off hitter. The acclaimed filmmaker’s stop-motion passion project is out in select theaters next month with a streaming release on December 9th. Receiving a first look today at the London Film Festival, Pinocchio arrives a half decade after del Toro’s The Shape of Water took Best Picture (along with a directorial victory) and one year after his follow-up Nightmare Alley made the BP ten. Actors providing voiceovers include Ewan McGregor, David Bradley, Gregory Mann, Finn Wolfhard, Cate Blanchett, John Turturro, Ron Perlman, Tim Blake Nelson, Burn Gorman, Christoph Waltz, and Tilda Swinton.

Since I added Animated Feature in my predictions a few weeks back, I’ve had del Toro’s tale of the iconic puppet turned real boy listed in first place. Part of that is due to its maker’s track record. That’s not the only reason why. The other is that it might be a rare off year for Disney, who have taken the gold statue 15 out of 21 times. This summer’s Lightyear was a high profile flop that is likely to be omitted from the final five altogether. Turning Red from the spring achieved solid enough notices to make the cut, but I certainly don’t see it as an automatic winner. The Mouse Factory still has next month’s Strange World in their arsenal so we’ll see if that emerges as a major threat.

Several critics from the London screenings are proclaiming this Pinocchio to be great or near great. On the other hand, some reviews aren’t quite as effusive. I do think the early word-of-mouth is enough to take comfort in the #1 ranking. Yet I wouldn’t say it’s a slam dunk pick to take gold like, say, 2020’s Soul was. I would also keep an eye on Original Score with Alexandre Desplat composing. Visual Effects is also doable (if perhaps a stretch).

A nomination seems assured and Netflix could hold 60% of the nominees this year. Wendell and Wild, another upcoming stop-motion pic from Henry Selick, should get in. Either The Sea Beast or My Father’s Dragon could as well (though probably not both). The streamer got their first contender in 2019 with Klaus and then Over the Moon in 2020 and The Mitchells vs. the Machines last year. They’re 0 for 3 in wins. That may change with del Toro in the company mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Matilda the Musical

Based on the 1988 Roald Dahl book as well as the musical stage show that followed years later, the cinematic rendering of Matilda the Musical streams on Netflix December 9th. That’s about two weeks after the UK rollout. It already made its festival debut in London to harmonious praise and a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

Matthew Warchus is behind the camera, adapting from his own onstage direction in England and on Broadway (where Olivier and Tony Awards abounded). This is the second reworking of the Dahl book behind 1996’s version helmed by Danny DeVito. Alisha Weir plays the title character with a supporting cast including Lashana Lynch, Emma Thompson, Andrea Riseborough, and Stephen Graham.

Despite the praise, it’s a stretch to consider this an Academy contender. That is with the possible exception of Best Original Song where there are reported to be tunes separate from the stage version that could be eligible for consideration.

I wouldn’t sleep on Matilda‘s chances at the Golden Globes. The Musical/Comedy category could have room for a couple of surprises and this would fit the bill. Of the actors, Thompson is getting lots of love. However, I suspect Globes voters may honor her in lead Actress in Musical/Comedy for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (which premiered earlier this year). My Oscar (and Globe) Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: My Father’s Dragon

It could be time to admit that I’ve slept on My Father’s Dragon when it comes to Oscar consideration. Based on the 1948 children’s book by Ruth Stiles Gannett, the 2-D fantasy makes its way to Netflix on November 11th. It had its unveiling at the London Film Festival. Dragon is the fifth animated feature from Cartoon Saloon and their track record is, shall we say, fire.

The Irish outlet is 4 for 4 when it comes to getting their pics nominated for Best Animated Feature: 2010’s The Secret of Kells, 2014’s Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner from 2017, and 2020’s Wolfwalkers. Despite their success rate getting their product in the final quintet, they’ve yet to win.

Dragon is directed by Nora Twomey, who co-directed Kells and solo helmed The Breadwinner. The sprawling voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Gaten Matarazzo, Golshifteh Farahani, Jackie Earle Haley, Whoopi Goldberg, Dianne Wiest, Rita Moreno, Chris O’Dowd, Judy Greer, Alan Cumming, Yara Shahidi, Mary Kay Place, Leighton Meester, and Ian McShane.

Reviews are just beginning to trickle out of London and so far so good. The initial buzz indicates this should be a contender. Like its earlier efforts, I’d say it’s a viable film for nomination and not a victory. My last estimates had it ranked seventh… pretty low for a production company with the aforementioned history.

Yet there could be roadblocks on the Saloon’s road to five in a row. The main one is internal competition from Netflix itself. Most prognosticators (myself included) have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from the streamer listed in first place. Even though that’s sight unseen, the pedigree would suggest it’ll be Netflix’s biggest push for the gold statue. Others that the company could be focused on include this summer’s acclaimed The Sea Beast and Wendell and Wild from Jordan Peele, which debuts later this month and nabbed positive feedback at the Toronto Film Festival.

That’s four legit contenders from Netflix and Disney (for one) will have something to say about them achieving four nominations (they won’t). Something’s gotta give and we’ll see how the next few weeks play out to determine which movies from the quartet don’t make the dance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Luckiest Girl Alive Review

Luckiest Girl Alive tackles weighty subjects and reinforces its messages by eventually having Mila Kunis’s Ani look directly to camera to state them in case you weren’t listening. Based on a 2015 bestseller by Jessica Knoll, Mike Barker’s adaptation juggles two 1999 tragedies – the first is kept under wraps for some time. It leads to a school shooting in which Kunis’s younger self is suspected of participating. In the present day, one of the wounded parties confined to a wheelchair (Alex Barone) is monetizing such a narrative.

Ani is a talented writer penning witty relationship columns for a slightly trashy magazine. The work is noticed enough that she’s up for a gig at The New York Times. She’s engaged to Luke (Finn Wittrock), sweet and supportive and coming from money. We learn that status is important to Ani. Flashbacks (where Ani is played by Chiara Aurelia) show us a teenager attending a fancy private school. Unlike her peers, she’s not rich and her mom (Connie Britton) is constantly offering flawed advice on how to climb the societal ladder.

In addition to the story often shifting between the turn of the century and 2015, Kunis provides frequent voiceovers. Her biting inner monologue usually doesn’t match what she says out loud (expect in one humorous instance). Ani has learned to keep prior tragedies buried away. All of that is risked when a documentary filmmaker (Dalmar Abuzeid) finally convinces her to take part in his project. Its focus is to get to the bottom of everything that occurred when violence erupted in the halls. The acts of violation aren’t just unique to the shooters.

As mentioned, the screenplay (and book I assume) are told so that some crimes are slow rolled into big reveals. Perhaps it worked in novelistic form. It comes across as clunky in the adaptation and even a little cheap considering the seriousness of its themes. Characters are arbitrarily introduced like Ani’s kindly teacher (Scoot McNairy). He tends to pop up as the plot necessitates it.

Our lead strays far away from recent comedic roles and does a commendable job. Other players – like Britton as the boozy and conflicted mom – are saddled with one-note roles (that applies to Wittrock too). I wish the structure served its top actress and the others more smoothly. This meditation on trauma can feel too often like a rough draft.

** (out of four)

Emancipation Enters the Oscar Race

In an alternative universe, Emancipation might be in my top 10 predicted Best Picture nominees. I could potentially be discussing Will Smith’s chances of being the first back to back acting winner since Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994.

I didn’t think this alternative universe could be a potential reality in the 2022 awards season. In 2021, Apple TV beat Netflix and others to the punch as CODA was the inaugural streaming Best Picture winner. For a while, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon appeared to be Apple’s best shot at making it two years in a row. That’s until it got pushed to 2023. In recent weeks, there was speculation that Ridley Scott’s Napoleon starring Joaquin Phoenix could make a jump to 2022. It wasn’t to be.

This has left Apple without a legit across the board Oscar player… until maybe today. Why? The streamer announced that Antoine Fuqua’s historical drama Emancipation will hit theaters for an awards qualifying run on December 2nd and then be available for home viewing on December 9th. The trailer was unveiled this morning.

And in case you’re still wondering why I’m skeptical… two words: The Slap. Yes, the slap heard around the globe when Chris Rock presented Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards and cracked a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith. And, of course, slap provider Will Smith giving his acceptance speech a few minutes later when he was victorious in Best Actor for King Richard.

Since then, many of Smith’s planned projects have entered turnaround status. Emancipation, in which he plays a slave who joins the Union Army, was already filmed. And Apple made the surprising decision in early October to get it out two months later. This surely means Smith will be subject to interviews where he’ll address The Slap sooner than later.

So… the obvious question: can Smith get nominated? Can the film itself do so in other categories? Even though the star resigned from the Academy in the aftermath of the incident, he can still be nominated (and he can attend if invited by other members). So while the short answer is yes… the real answer is more complicated.

My gut is that Smith’s work in Emancipation would have to be undeniably awards worthy to make the final five. Even that could be a stretch. Time heals controversies and not much time has passed. As for the film itself, it could surely garner nods from Best Picture on down (I’m curious if Ben Foster gets any chatter for Supporting Actor). Yet it starts off at a unique disadvantage.

We won’t know until reviews start surfacing and that could be a few weeks. I can only assume Apple will give this a major push for consideration. It’s a campaign that is an uphill battle for reasons unfathomable just a few months ago.