Tag: Nebraska

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Box Office Prediction

20th Century Studios hopes that Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere has a glorious first three days at the box office when it drops October 24th. Centered around the making of his 1982 album Nebraska, Jeremy Allen White plays the title character with Jeremy Strong as longtime manager Jon Landau. Scott Cooper directs the musical bio with a supporting cast including Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron and David Krumholtz.

Nowhere was first seen at the Telluride Film Festival where it managed to generate awards chatter, especially for White (who’s won multiple honors for his TV work on The Bear). Overall reviews were somewhat tempered in their praise with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic.

Last year, A Complete Unknown (from the 20th Century umbrella under Searchlight) struck a chord with viewers to tune of $75 million. That biopic of Bob Dylan with Timothée Chalamet seemed to have more buzz prior to its release. Some estimates have Nowhere reaching $20-25 million, but I’m thinking mid teens is where its ends up.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million

For my Regretting You prediction, click here:

Regretting You Box Office Prediction

For my Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc prediction, click here:

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Eleanor the Great

At age 95, June Squibb was at the Cannes Film Festival today as her starring vehicle Eleanor the Great debuted. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of Scarlett Johansson with a supporting cast including Chiwetel Ejiofor, Jessica Hecht, Erin Kellyman, and Rita Zohar.

It marks the second year in a row that Squibb is considered a factor in the awards conversation. Last year’s Thelma garnered impressive reviews. They ultimately did not translate into nominations for its star who was up for Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska.

As we await word of stateside distribution, Eleanor had a mixed reaction in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64% though Squibb is being heralded. She’ll need a strong campaign that exceeds Thelma‘s in what looks like a crowded Actress field. Her chances could be stronger at the Globes where the distributor will be faced with a choice of whether to slot her in Drama or Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered our first three pics with American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, and Barbie. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Behind door #4 is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers.

The Case for The Holdovers:

With a 97% rating, it is #1 on the Tomato-meter (just edging the 96% of Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall). The 70s set Christmas dramedy is Payne’s fourth feature to nab a BP nod after Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska and this might be his most appreciated work yet. It has scored BP nods at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Paul Giamatti is a threat to win Best Actor and Da’Vine Joy Randolph is absolutely the frontrunner in Supporting Actress. The Holdovers may also take Original Screenplay. If it emerges in all 3 of those races, that’s a nice little formula for a BP victory.

The Case Against The Holdovers:

It hasn’t won any of the aforementioned BP derbies (Globes, Critics) and it’s unlikely to take BAFTA. Payne missed the quintet in Director. In the 21st century, only 3 movies (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have been named BP without their maker being nominated. And then there’s the fact that Oppenheimer is simply a heavy favorite.

The Verdict:

An argument can be made that The Holdovers is #2 in the BP sweepstakes. However, Payne’s omission in Director sticks out and topping Oppenheimer is a potentially insurmountable challenge.

My Case Of posts will continue with Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie

Oscar Predictions: Thelma

Schwarzenegger. Stallone. Squibb. At the Sundance Film Festival, we have a new seasoned action hero via Josh Margolin’s Thelma. It casts June Squibb, 94 years young, seeking revenge on a phone scammer. Costars include Fred Hechinger, the late Richard Roundtree, Parker Posey, Clark Gregg, and Malcolm McDowell.

Ms. Squibb, nominated in Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska, is unsurprisingly drawing critical kudos for her work. The Sundance notices thus far have resulted in 100% Tomato meter. With the right amount of exposure, Thelma could be a sleeper.

Awards prospects are shakier. I’d say this is more of a Golden Globes post than an Academy Awards one. A shrewd marketing campaign might put Squibb in line for an Actress nod in Musical/Comedy at that show. It’s all about how visible (or not) this project becomes over the next few months and the level of competition that is TBD. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Toronto Gets Real About American Fiction

The Toronto Film Festival has wrapped and our friends up north have bestowed their People Choice’s Award along with the first and second runner-ups. Just how important is this prize in correlating to a Best Picture spot at the Oscars? Let’s go to the numbers and they’re telling.

Of the last 15 People’s Choice winners from TIFF, 14 received a BP nomination and 5 of them ultimately took the big prize: 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2018’s Green Book, and 2020’s Nomadland.

When it comes to the 1st and 2nd runners-up, 10 of them in the past 15 cycles have received BP attention. That includes three winners in 2012’s Argo, 2015’s Spotlight, and 2019’s Parasite.

So… it’s a key harbinger to Academy attention. And that’s why it’s a tad surprising that Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut American Fiction is the pick. That’s not because it didn’t get great reviews (it’s at 96% via 24 write-ups on RT). It just snuck up on prognosticators like myself with the TIFF love (there’s not even a trailer yet). The dramedy focused on race relations is now undeniably a factor in awards discussions as it moves towards its November 3rd debut. Jeffrey Wright’s lead performance and the Adapted Screenplay are also in the mix for attention.

The first runner-up, unsurprisingly, is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (which many were picking to receive People’s Choice). For Payne, it’s looked at as a return to form after his underwhelming predecessor Downsizing in 2017. This 1970s set Christmas tale appears poised for possible nods in BP (joining earlier Payne efforts Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska) and Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and certainly Original Screenplay.

The Boy and the Heron is Hayao Miyazaki’s latest acclaimed animated feature which opened TIFF. It’s pretty much a given that this will contend in Best Animated Feature though it could be a tall order to overcome frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Here are the facts: TIFF has boosted Fiction in a serious way. Keep an eye on the blog for further Oscar Predictions updates!

Oscar Predictions: The Holdovers

One of the most surprising 21st century Best Actor snubs at the Oscars was Paul Giamatti being left out in 2004 for Alexander Payne’s Sideways. The movie itself nabbed five nominations – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Virginia Madsen), Supporting Actor (Thomas Haden Church), and a win for its Adapted Screenplay. Somehow its star couldn’t make his final five.

Giamatti would receive his one and only nom in Supporting Actor the following year with Cinderella Man. Nearly two decades after the Sideways omission, his latest collaboration with Payne could get him the second and first in lead. Dramedy The Holdovers has premiered at Telluride prior to an October 27th limited release and November 10th wide bow.

Early reviews are hailing it as a return to form for Payne (100% right now on RT). His previous effort Downsizing in 2017 underwhelmed critics and crowds. It could be his fourth Best Picture nominee after Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska and if he gets in for his direction, that would also be #4. The original screenplay by David Hemingson seems like a shoo-in.

Could Giamatti miss again? Sure. We already have major contenders such as Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), and Barry Keoghan (Saltburn). Those are just the pics that have already screened. I’d look for Focus Features to make a strong push. They’ll do the same for his costars Da’vine Joy Randolph and newbie Dominic Sessa in their supporting fields. The former probably has the best shot, but don’t discount Sessa. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2013: The Final Five

My blog series continues with speculation on what a Best Picture lineup of five would have looked like in the years since the format changed to up to 10 nominees. That began in 2009 and if you missed my previous posts covering 2009-2012, you can peruse them here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

Best Picture 2012: The Final Five

In our year of 2013, the magic number was 9 contenders. We know that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave would have been included since a win in Best Picture was among its nine nominations. It also took Director, Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o), and Adapted Screenplay. So what else would’ve made the cut? Let’s speculate, shall we?

American Hustle

David O. Russell’s disco era crime pic tied for the most nods with 10, including Director and four acting mentions for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, and Jennifer Lawrence. Despite the double digit nomination haul, it ended the night with zero victories.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Even with the goose egg, the sheer number of nods indicates making the quintet.

Captain Phillips

With Tom Hanks as the title character in the true life Somali pirate drama, Paul Greengrass’s tense thriller scored 6 overall nods. In addition to Pic, Supporting Actor (Barkhad Abdi), Adapted Screenplay, both Sound races, and Film Editing were in the mix. Like Hustle, there were no wins.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. With no nods for directing or Hanks’s performance (which was a huge snub), I think this would’ve been on the outside looking in.

Dallas Buyers Club

While our first two selections went 0 for 16, this mid 80s set AIDS drama won half of its six nominations – Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Supporting Actor (Jared Leto), and Makeup and Hairstyling. The other two mentions were Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but it’s a close call. The three gold statues put it over the edge in my opinion despite not landing a directing slot for the late Jean-Marc Vallee.

Gravity

Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller tied Hustle with 10 nominations. Unlike Hustle, it won 70% of its possibilities: Director, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. Sandra Bullock was nominated for Best Actress and it got a Production Design nod.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Even without a screenplay nom, this would’ve been in contention and it was probably the runner-up to Slave considering the Cuaron win.

Her

Spike Jonze’s quirky romantic drama won Original Screenplay and was up for Score, Song, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No because it missed out on key precursors including Director, Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Film Editing.

Nebraska

Alexander Payne’s B&W road dramedy nabbed five other nods for direction, Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Original Screenplay, and Cinematography. It didn’t emerge victorious for any.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I struggled with this one (it’s sixth). Film Editing is often the biggest indicator of a BP nom and that’s part of the reason I gave Dallas Buyers Club a slight edge.

Philomena

Judi Dench received a Best Actress nod for this adoption drama. Adapted Screenplay and Score were the other mentions as its four overall are the least of the BP hopefuls.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. The Academy loves Dench. However, that wouldn’t have been enough for this to survive a cut to five.

The Wolf of Wall Street

Martin Scorsese’s raunchy tale of 80s excess landed Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill acting spots. The direction and Adapted Screenplay were up as well. It won none.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes though I will say I don’t think it’s automatic. Wolf‘s complete lack of nominations in the tech categories is a bit of a surprise, but ultimately I don’t think the voters would’ve ignored this.

So my quintet for 2013 would be:

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

The Wolf of Wall Street

2014 is up next and will be on the blog soon!

Oscar Watch: The Artist’s Wife

After premiering nearly a year ago at the Hamptons International Film Festival, Tom Dolby’s The Artist’s Wife has hit streaming services over the weekend. The drama finds Lena Olin as the wife of a famed artist (Bruce Dern) who is suffering from dementia. This is a common theme in the 2020 Oscar season. Florian Zeller’s The Father is a major contender in the big races including the work of its headliners Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman. Earlier today, I wrote my post for Supernova which features Colin Firth traveling with his partner Stanley Tucci – who is also suffering from the disease. I was less hopeful for its Academy prospects.

The same holds true here. Reviews are mixed with a current 59% Rotten Tomatoes score. Artist’s has drawn some comparisons to 2018’s The Wife which nearly won Glenn Close her first statue before being upset by the aforementioned Colman in The Favourite.  The bulk of the critical praise here has gone to Olin, a veteran actress with one nod to her credit in Supporting Actress for 1989’s Enemies, A Love Story. Dern was a Best Actor nominee seven years ago for Nebraska. 

Yet Best Actress is looking crowded already with plenty of legit possibilities on deck. The Artist’s Wife, with its so-so response thus far, appears bound to get lost in the shuffle.

Oscar History: 2013

Recapping the Oscar Season of 2013, a few things stick out. The big winners were 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, which cleaned up in the tech races. The big loser was American Hustle, which came away with zero victories despite 10 nominations (tying it for most nods with Gravity, which won 7 of them). Another take: it was a packed year for Best Actor with some deserving gents left out.

As I have done with previous years, let’s take a deeper dive in the 86th Academy Awards in the major races:

Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave unsurprisingly came away with the Best Picture prize in a field that yielded eight other films. They were David O. Russell’s American Hustle, Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips, Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyers Club, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, Spike Jonze’s Her, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, Philomena from Stephen Frears, and Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. 

That’s a solid grouping of pictures and there’s probably no obvious omissions from my end in 2013.. That said, many young girls may protest Frozen not making the cut though it did win Best Animated Feature. And certainly Inside Llewyn Davis from the Coen Brothers had its ardent admirers.

There was a Picture/Director split with Cuaron emerging victorious for Gravity. The filmmaker would achieve the same feat five years later when he won for Roma but Green Book took Best Picture. Other nominees were McQueen, Payne, Russell, and Scorsese.I would argue that Greengrass and Jonze could have made the final five.

In the aforementioned crowded Best Actor derby, Matthew McConaughey took gold for his work in Dallas Buyers Club. The four other contenders were Christian Bale for Hustle, Bruce Dern in Nebraska, Leonardo DiCaprio for Wall Street, and Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave. Note that all nominees came from Best Picture hopefuls.

Let’s start with Tom Hanks, who I absolutely feel should have gotten in for his remarkable performance in Captain Phillips. The clip I’ve included below proves it and then some. You could say the same for Joaquin Phoenix in Her. Others worth noting: Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis, Hugh Jackman in Prisoners, and Robert Redford for All Is Lost. 

Cate Blanchett was the latest actress to be honored for her work in a Woody Allen picture as she took Best Actress for Blue Jasmine. The other nominees were Amy Adams (American Hustle), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), and the ever present Meryl Streep (August: Osage County).

I’ll mention three others left out worthy of consideration: Brie Larson in Short Term 12, Julia-Louis Dreyfus for Enough Said, and Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks. For the latter, it was a bit unexpected that she was left out.

McConaughey’s Dallas Buyers costar Jared Leto won Supporting Actor over Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), and Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street). Again, all nominees stemmed from Picture contenders.

Some others that didn’t quite make it: Daniel Bruhl in Rush, Steve Coogan for Philomena, Paul Dano in Prisoners, and Will Forte in Nebraska.

Another big 12 Years victory was Lupita Nyong’o in Supporting Actress. She took the prize despite competition from Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), and June Squibb (Nebraska).

Despite it being a voice only performance, I would say Scarlett Johansson in Her deserved a spot and the same could be said for Margot Robbie in Wall Street.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLunpl8CfNM

And there you have it, folks! My look back at the Oscar landscape in 2013. I’ll have 2014 up in due time…

Downsizing Movie Review

Director Alexander Payne and his writing partner Jim Taylor enter new genre territory with Downsizing, but it’s filled with the themes found in their previous efforts. A central character searching for meaning in life, marital strife, and classism are on display. Unlike prior features, science fiction elements and a bigger budget are in the mix. This is a story loaded with intriguing prospects  that doesn’t lead to a totally rewarding whole.

A prologue shows the advent of a monumental discovery by Norwegian scientists – the ability to shrink humans to only five inches tall. The reasoning to do it is to save the Earth by significantly reducing pollution and overpopulation. Not all citizens who choose to go through the procedure are hardcore environmentalists. There’s also the added bonus that downsizing is a financial boon. Every dollar in big world translates to about a grand in the smaller one.

This is the primary reason why occupational therapist Paul (Matt Damon) and his wife Audrey (Kristin Wiig) choose their new path. The Omaha couple agree to downsize and populate the colony of Leisureland. In Nebraska, they’re scraping by. They will be millionaires post op. A surprise happens on the way to the procedure. Paul goes through with it, but Audrey backs out and leaves him.

Lonely Paul must adjust to his tiny new surroundings and life. His eventual divorce agreement causes him to trade his Leisureland mansion for an apartment (albeit a pretty nice one). Up to this point, Downsizing is pretty nifty. The leadup and explanations of how this new world works are fascinating. There’s some prejudice involved with the full size humans meeting those about to become small. Should they get full voting rights, for instance? We also discover there’s nefarious governments that forcibly shrink their dissidents.

Further exploration of themes like these could have made a potentially rich experience. Downsizing goes a different direction. Paul’s upstairs neighbor is a party animal played with expected gusto by Christoph Waltz. It’s through this freewheeling character that Paul meets Ngoc Lan (Hong Chau), a Vietnamese political activist who was punished by that government. She’s an amputee and cleaning lady with a heart of gold. Ngoc Lan takes Paul to the slums of Leisureland where he begins to medically assist its poor residents. He also begins to fall for his companion.

The picture, at this juncture, largely abandons its sci fi leanings and concentrates on issues of self-worth, love, and political themes. Of course, all these things have been present in many great science fiction efforts. However, the tone of Downsizing is a shifty one. There’s moments of satire that aren’t biting enough and an earnestness that can come off cloying. That latter description could sometimes apply to Damon’s work. Payne has directed a number of actors to Oscar nominations. His lead here displays the same syrupy conviction in which he once bought a zoo. Chau is a different story. She creates a character whose backstory might have been really rewarding if shown onscreen. Unfortunately, Ngoc Lan eventually becomes just the love interest to the blander protagonist.

Payne and Taylor deserve a degree of credit for crafting this odd concoction. There’s some original thoughts here and some sequences are truly impressive, especially the downsizing procedure itself. That said, the emotional payoff the filmmakers are reaching for never quite reached me. There are moments in About Schmidt, Sideways, The Descendants and Nebraska that did so more often and with an appreciated higher level of subtlety. So while I admire Downsizing for some big ideas, the overall impact is smaller.

**1/2 (out of four)