The animated Japanese superhero series My Hero Academia has made the bulk of its booty overseas, but performed admirably stateside. On October 11th comes the fourth feature You’re Next. Tensai Okamura takes over directorial duties with a voice cast including Daiki Yamashita, Nobuhiko Okamato, Yuki Kaji, Ayane Sakura, and Kaito Ishikawa.
Based on the manga series that kicked off in 2014, original cinematic franchise entry Two Heroes in 2018 had a limited theatrical release in the United States and Canada. In February 2020, sequel Heroes Rising earned $5.1 million for its start while October 2021’s World Heroes’ Mission upgraded a bit at $6.4 million.
We’ve had a longer layoff between parts three and four than any of the others. I doubt that will change the dynamic much and I foresee mid single digits as the best bet.
My Hero Academia: You’re Next opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million
A prequel to a popular Japanese animated manga series, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 arrives stateside March 18th. Directed by Sunghoo Park, the Toho produced action fantasy from creator Gege Akutami has already earned over $100 million internationally.
Toho, the studio that gave us Godzilla, has had domestic success with recent releases in the U.S. My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising took in just over $5 million in spring 2020 for its start. In October 2021, My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising generated a tad above $6 million. In lower and non My Hero Academia series comps, Monster Hunter from December 2020 took in $2.2 million out of the gate (at a time when theaters were operating at their most extreme levels of COVID incapacity). That north of $2 million tally actually made it #1. And then there’s Demon Slayer, which did incredible business in April 2021 with $21 million in its first weekend.
With The Batman poised to perch itself for a third frame at #1, Jujutsu should post a healthy second or third place showing (depending on how Uncharted holds). I don’t think it gets near Slayer numbers, but it could get to mid to high single digits or possibly more.
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Blogger’s Note (11/03): I’ve seen some unconfirmed data indicating Spencer will open on just under 1000 screens. If that holds true, I’m revising my estimate from $4.6M to $4.1M.
Blogger’s Update (11/02): Even though I don’t have a theater count at press time, I am factoring in the opening of Spencer to my estimates. My detailed prediction for it is here:
My $4.6M projection puts it in the top five so it’s now a top 6 for the weekend ahead!
The third of four 2021 Marvel Cinematic Universe titles hits this weekend (thanks to some COVID delays) with Chloe Zhao’s Eternals. It’s eagerly awaited, but it also faces some unusual challenges for the MCU. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The buzz for Eternals is mixed in a way that its studio isn’t accustomed to. Sitting at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes, the pic has the lowest RT score of the 26 MCU entries dating back to 2008. That has caused me to revise my estimate down just a touch, but I still believe mid to high 70s is the probable haul.
Unsurprisingly, Eternals is the only wide release as November dawns. Dune, after two weeks on top, may lose around 50-55% of its audience for second place with No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage providing a sequel heavy presence in the rest of the top five.
My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission, after being the top newcomer this past weekend, should drop precipitously around 70% (like its predecessor) and fall outside the high five flicks.
With that, here’s how I see it looking:
1. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $77.8 million
2. Dune
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
3. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Spencer
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
6. Halloween Kills
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (October 29-31)
I supersized my normal estimates with a top ten due to the prevalence of newbies over the Halloween frame. All but one, as I predicted, fell outside the top five.
As anticipated, Dune reigned supreme in its sophomore outing. However, it fell more than I figured. The $15.4 million take didn’t match my $18.5 million and the two-week tally is $69 million.
Other holdovers held a bit sturdier than I thought they would. Halloween Kills was second with $8.7 million compared to my $6.1 million projection and it’s up to $85 million with the century mark in view.
No Time to Die was third with $7.7 million (I said $6.3 million) and Mr. Bond has reached $133 million.
My Heroes Academia: World Heroes’ Mission was the best performing newbie at $6.4 million, on pace with my $6.1 million prediction.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage rounded out the top five with $5.7 million, on pace with my forecast of $5.6 million. Total is $190 million as it approaches double century territory.
Antlers debuted in sixth with a mediocre $4.2 million. It did surpass my take of $3.2 million.
Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho started out in seventh with just $4.1 million, not matching my $5.2 million estimate.
Ron’s Gone Wrong was eighth in weekend #2 at $3.7 million (I went with $4.1 million) as the animated feature has drawn in only $12 million.
The Addams Family 2 followed in ninth with $3 million and I was close at $3.3 million for $52 million overall.
Finally, Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch expanded to nearly 800 screens and took tenth at $2.6 million. I was more hopeful with $3.8 million.
Halloween weekend brings five (yes five) pictures either debuting or expanding nationally. Some of them may not treat theirselves to a top 5 finish. The contenders are Edgar Wright’s 60s set psychological horror pic Last Night in Soho, Scott Cooper’s creature feature Antlers, Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The French Dispatch, Japanese animated sequel My Heroes Academia: World Heroes’ Mission, and Amanda Seyfried in the drama A Mouthful of Air. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet at these links:
I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit. Mouthful is only opening in 800 theaters and has barely been advertised. My tiny $846,000 estimate leaves it outside of the top ten.
Of all the premieres, I suspect Academia could actually make the most and it might be the only one in the top 5. This is based on the assumption that Soho and Antlers will both struggle.
The French Dispatch is more of a question mark. It debuted in 52 venues this weekend and its $1.3 million take (good for ninth place) represents the highest per screen average in the COVID era. However, that could be misleading as it expands across the nation and non-Anderson fanatics may not turn out.
As for holdovers, Dune met expectations in its start (more on that below) and seemed to garner the audience stamp of approval with an A- Cinemascore. It should easily maintain the top spot and I’ll say a 50-55% dip is most feasible. Halloween Kills, No Time to Die, Academia, and maybe even Venom (or Soho or Antlers or Dispatch if they exceed my forecasts) could battle it out for the runner-up position.
With all the new product, my typical top 5 expands to a top 10 as we close out October. Here’s how I see it:
1. Dune
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
2. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
3. Halloween Kills
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
6. Last Night in Soho
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
7. Ron’s Gone Wrong
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
8. The French Dispatch
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
9. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
10. Antlers
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (October 22-24)
Despite its simultaneous availability on HBO Max, Denis Villeneuve’s long awaited sci-fi epic Dune performed in the range of anticipation with $41 million, just under my $42.8 million prediction. Considering its streaming dollars, that should certainly be enough for the expected part II.
Halloween Kills was slashed steeply in weekend #2 with $14.4 million. I was a tad higher at $15.4 million. The middle pic in the trilogy is up to a solid $73 million.
No Time to Die was third with $12.2 million, right on pace with my $12.1 million take. The 25th Bond adventure sits at $120 million.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage took fourth with $9.3 million (I said $9.5 million) for $182 million overall.
Finally, the animated Ron’s Gone Wrong didn’t connect with family audiences. Despite complimentary critical reaction, it opened in the five spot with $7.3 million (not matching my $8.4 million projection).
Just prior to the COVID era in February 2020, the second feature in the animated superhero franchise from Japan My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising took in $5.8 million at the domestic box office. From director Kenji Nagasaki, the Toho distributed pic placed fourth on the charts and ended its stateside run at $13.5 million.
On October 29th, the follow-up hits multiplexes. My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission debuted in its home country back in August. Earning $29 million, it became the highest grossing entry in the series thus far. Will American audiences turn out again?
I don’t see why not. This particular genre has a devoted fanbase that should show up in similar numbers to its predecessor. In fact, I suspect Heroes could outgross the competition (Last Night in Soho, Antlers) opening directly against it. I’ll give this third Mission a slight bump over what part II achieved.
My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million
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