Tag: movies

The Judge Box Office Prediction

For the past six and a half years, it’s been rare to see Robert Downey Jr. in any movie that’s not part of a franchise – whether Iron Man, The Avengers, or Sherlock Holmes. This Friday, audiences will have that opportunity with David Dobkin’s The Judge.

The courtroom drama finds Downey playing a hotshot attorney defending his dad/title character played by Robert Duvall. The supporting cast includes Billy Bob Thornton, Vera Farmiga, Vincent D’Onofrio, and Dax Shepard. For a short period of time, The Judge was thought of as a potential awards contender until it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last month. Critical reaction was mixed as it currently stands at a middling 52% on Rotten Tomatoes. The lack of positive buzz from that community could hinder the pic’s opening weekend potential and competition for adult audiences is strong with Gone Girl entering its second weekend and The Equalizer in its third.

The Judge‘s box office success pretty much rests squarely on the shoulders of Downey and his ability to open a non-franchise related title. If this manages to get past $20 million in its premiere, Warner Bros. should consider that a victory. I have my doubts and believe the audience will give it a verdict in the mid to high teens.

The Judge opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million

For my prediction on Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/alexander-and-the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-day-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Dracula Untold, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/dracula-untold-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Addicted, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/addicted-box-office-prediction/

Gone Girl Movie Review

For better or worse.

The sacred wedding vows that couples take are taken to glorious extremes in David Fincher’s Gone Girl, based on the bestselling phenomenon of a novel written by Gillian Flynn. She also wrote the screenplay and I am pleased to report she remained faithful to her work.

While author Flynn’s faithfulness to her novel will undoubtedly make her readers happy, unbridled devotion is not a trait the principal characters of Nick (Ben Affleck) and Amy Dunne (Rosamund Pike) share with one another. Their romance starts on a positive note, but the complications of life eventually wear their union down. Jealousies arise. The everyday boredom of an existence in the Midwest away from her native New York takes its toll on Amy.

And on their five-year anniversary… Amy becomes the title character. She’s gone. There are clues to what may have happened. Blood samples. Notes left by Amy that she always made for Nick as kind of a scavenger hunt to retrace the history of their relationship. In this case, they may serve as something more.

Nick quickly becomes a suspect as the husband in these instances usually do. The tabloid media feasts on the tale of the missing woman and her significant other who dares to smile at the missing persons press conference. Along the way, Flynn’s screenplay gradually reveals more and more about this couple. For those unfamiliar with the source material, it won’t be what you expect.

Writing a review of Gone Girl is complicated, to say the least. Just as you didn’t want to reveal the many twists to one about to read the book, the same holds true for its film adaptation. So I’ll put it this way – David Fincher was the right guy for this project. Through Seven and The Game and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, there is perhaps no director better at this kind of dark material. As you’d expect, Gone Girl‘s technical aspects are flawless, from the cinematography to the score (by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross) to the production design and so forth.

There are details about Amy and Nick’s personas that couldn’t possibly be fully explored in the way the book manages, but the picture come awfully close. The casting is key here and Affleck and Pike nail their roles. Nick is neither your typical panicked husband whose wife has vanished nor the sinister monster who may or may not have done the unthinkable. And Amy is far from just the victim. Pike’s performance in particular is something else with the range of emotions she must go through. Expect her to get a Best Actress nod come Oscar time.

Fincher has a habit of unconventional casting choices and there are two here worthy of special mention: Neil Patrick Harris as a former stalker of Amy’s and Tyler Perry as a brilliant criminal defense attorney. Both shine in their against type casting parts. Carrie Coon also merits a shout out for her strong work as Nick’s twin sister.

Gone Girl, more than anything, is about the facades people put on to get into their relationships, maintain them, and possibly lose them. It’s about asking the question of whether or not you ever truly know the individual you call your soul mate. For better or worse, Nick and Amy take a journey in Gone Girl to find out. The results are often shocking and consistently enthralling to the audience.

***1/2 (out of four)

Oscar History: 2008

The 2008 Oscars will likely go down as the final year when only five films would compete in the granddaddy category of them all, Best Picture. The following year, the Academy would change it to ten and a couple years after that, developed a formula where anywhere from 5-10 movies could be recognized.

Many believe the reason is 2008’s exclusion of the critically lauded superhero sequel The Dark Knight, which had become the year’s highest grossing feature and was considered a major milestone in the burgeoning genre. Yet with the exception of its acclaimed Joker, Knight was shut out in the major categories.

Best Picture instead went to a true “little movie that could” – Danny Boyle’s out of nowhere critical and audience pleaser Slumdog Millionaire.

It would win out over David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon, Gus Van Sant’s Milk, and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader. It is a bit surprising that Oscar voters left out Knight and I would put forth that a decent argument could also be made for Jon Favreau’s Iron Man, which also stands as a creative high point in the comic book canon of movies.

In the Best Director category, it was a rare example of the five nominated auteurs matching the Picture nominees and Boyle would take home the gold over Fincher, Daldry, Van Sant, and Howard. Once again, Christopher Nolan would be on the outside looking in for his Knight direction.

Sean Penn would win his second Best Actor statue (2003’s Mystic River being the first) for playing gay activist Harvey Milk in Milk.

Other nominees: Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon, Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button, and Mickey Rourke in a career comeback role as The Wrestler.

Certainly Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne/Batman and Robert Downey, Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man could have been considered along with Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road, Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino, and the Slumdog Millionaire himself Dev Patel.

After a number of nominations with no victories, Kate Winslet would win Best Actress for The Reader, beating out Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married). Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), and the omnipresent Meryl Streep (Doubt).

It was a bit surprising to see Cate Blanchett’s work in Benjamin Button go unrecognized.

The Dark Knight would win its Oscar with the late Heath Ledger taking Supporting Actor as the Joker. Other nominees: Josh Brolin (Milk), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), and Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road).

While it was refreshing to see the Academy nominate a comedic performance like Downey’s in Tropic Thunder, an equally good argument could have been made for Tom Cruise’s role in that picture. Same goes for James Franco’s exemplary work as a stoner in Pineapple Express.

Woody Allen has directed several actresses to Supporting Actress wins and he did it again with Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona.

She would be victorious over Amy Adams in Doubt, Viola Davis – also for Doubt, Taraji P. Henson in Benjamin Button, and Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler.

I might’ve found room for Frances McDormand in the Coen Brothers Burn After Reading.

And that’s all for now on the Oscar History front! I’ll be back with 2009 in the near future…

Box Office Predictions: October 3-5

The first box office weekend of October is bound to be a highly unpredictable one as three new pics enter the marketplace: David Fincher’s Gone Girl, the horror prequel Annabelle, and faith-based Nicolas Cage thriller Left Behind. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/28/gone-girl-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/28/annabelle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/29/left-behind-box-office-prediction/

Here’s where the unpredictability comes in and it applies to all three new films…

Gone Girl is riding a wave of favorable reviews and it’s based on a very well-known 2012 Gillian Flynn novel. Yet movies like this can sometimes open decently and develop sturdy legs in subsequent weekends. My prediction for Gone Girl is definitely on the high end of expectations.

Annabelle, the prequel/spinoff of last summer’s hit The Conjuring, could easily surpass my prediction, which is definitely on the low end of expectations. It’s conceivable that these two newcomers could fight it out for #1, though my estimates do not reflect that.

Left Behind is another wild card. It is based on a series of well-known novels and its Christian themes could certainly give it a better opening than I’m predicting.

Add all that up and it equals a weekend where surprises would not be surprising. As for holdovers, I anticipate current #1 The Equalizer should lose about half its audience, with smaller declines for the animated The Boxtrolls and YA flick The Maze Runner.

And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $39.6 million

2. Annabelle

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. The Equalizer

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. The Boxtrolls

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Maze Runner

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 44%)

6. Left Behind

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (September 26-28)

It was a terrific weekend for yours truly with newcomers, while I didn’t give a couple of holdovers enough credit and gave another a bit too much.

As expected, Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer easily topped the charts with a rock solid $34.1 million, right in line with my $34.8M projection. The action thriller managed the fourth best September debut ever and the third best for star Washington.

YA hit The Maze Runner slipped to second with $17.4 million, holding up quite better than my $14.6M estimate. The budding new franchise has earned $57 million in ten days and is definitely a treat to pass $100M when all is said and done.

The animated feature The Boxtrolls took third with $17.2 million. My prediction… $17.2M! I’ll give myself a pat on the back for that one and this represents a decent opening for the pic.

In fourth, ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You made $6.8 million in week two, outpacing my $5.8M projection. It’s made an OK $22 million in ten days.

Fifth place belonged to Dolphin Tale 2 in its third frame with $4.7 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because I had the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones earning $6.1 million in weekend #2, yet it only managed $4.1M. This major disappointment has grossed only $20 million so far and should top out with only about $30M.

That’s all for now, friends. ‘Till next time…

Left Behind Box Office Prediction

While much audience anticipation should be focused on Gone Girl and Annabelle this weekend, there is another title heading to theaters Friday. It’s the apocalyptic thriller Left Behind starring Nicolas Cage, based on a bestselling series of books catered to faith based readers.

This is not the first adaptation of the novels to the screen as a version starring Kirk Cameron (!) opened in 2005. This reboot costars Chad Michael Murray and former “American Idol” Jordin Sparks. As far as making a prediction for how this will perform, here’s the main challenge: there’s no current theater screen count at press time.

If this opens on 2000 screens, my predicted number will certainly be different than if it opens on 700. In other words, I’m in a guess work frame of mind here. I’ll say this: this will probably be the only time I wager an estimate on a Nicolas Cage flick where his role was originally played by Kirk Cameron.

This could potentially reach the Christian audience it’s going after, but I don’t see this doing much at all. I’ll reserve to right to change my prediction if the theater count forces me to do so, but for now…

Left Behind opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my Gone Girl prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/28/gone-girl-box-office-prediction/

For my Annabelle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/28/annabelle-box-office-prediction/

Runner Runner Movie Review

There is probably a fascinating motion picture to be made about the seedy underworld of online gambling (a thriving multi-billion dollar industry), but Brad Furman’s Runner Runner isn’t it. To add to the disappointment, we have two lead actors involved that clearly have better things to do and have spent the last several years doing them. Runner Runner isn’t worth their time or ours.

Justin Timberlake plays Richie, a poker whiz who’s going for his Master’s Degree at Princeton when his financial woes lead to him to Costa Rica to seek out Ivan Block (Ben Affleck), who runs the largest online gaming site in the world. They become friends and business partners, but Richie soon learns his new glamorous life is a lot more dangerous than he thought. In short, Ivan is Gordon Gekko. Richie is Charlie Sheen’s character. In the Daryl Hannah role of the girl who’s caught between both men is Gemma Arterton of Quantum of Solace and Hansel&Gretel: Witch Hunters fame. And there’s Anthony Mackie as a FBI agent hot on Ivan’s trail.

The most memorable item about the pic is its lovely scenery with Puerto Rico doubling for Costa Rica. That’s about where my praise ends. The performances aren’t bad, but the actors aren’t given much to work with. Affleck is essentially recreating his character from a stronger effort, 2000’s Boiler Room. Timberlake is serviceable, but we’ve seen him much better in The Social Network when he has a character that’s more fully developed. Arterton’s thinly written love triangle with the two principles is perfunctory.

Runner Runner‘s main failure is the director and writers utter failure to generate any suspense. Ivan Block is a bad guy, but the audience never feels that Richie’s life is truly in danger. As mentioned, the picture’s subject is ripe for examination but you won’t find it in this by the numbers and lazy effort. 2008’s 21, with Jim Sturgess and Kevin Spacey, focused more on blackjack and it’s nothing special either, but at least it was directed with energy.

The good news is that Mr. Timberlake and Mr. Affleck have been doing remarkable work over the last few years, in their respective musical and directorial careers. Runner Runner is the type of movie that they don’t need to waste their time with anymore, but unfortunately they did. My advice is just to ignore it and pop in Argo or look forward to Gone Girl or cue up “Mirrors” and “Suit and Tie” to appreciate what they’re capable of.

** (out of four)

Annabelle Box Office Prediction

When The Conjuring became one of summer 2013’s unexpected hits, one of its most memorable characters wasn’t a human one. Rather it was the creepiest and most demonic doll since Chucky named Annabelle. And now she’s got her own self-titled prequel/spinoff picture opening Friday.

Conjuring director James Wan serves as producer while that film’s cinematographer John R. Leonetti directs. Human stars include Annabelle Wallis, Ward Horton, and Alfre Woodard. Let’s face it, though: the real star is Annabelle the doll and this pic will succeed or fail based on whether audiences want to see her in her own self-contained flick.

My guess is that many horror fans may simply wait to get their Conjuring fix until the actual sequel opens in October 2015. Still, Annabelle should top $20 million in its debut while not reaching close to the $41 million The Conjuring earned out of the gate.

Annabelle opening weekend prediction: $21.2 million

For my Gone Girl prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/28/gone-girl-box-office-prediction/

For my Left Behind prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/29/left-behind-box-office-prediction/

Throwback Thursday Reviews: Cape Fear (1991)

Upon its release in 1991, Cape Fear had the unique and odd distinction of being both Martin Scorsese’s most conventional picture and his most experimental. Here the master filmmaker was working in the mainstream world of crafting an audience pleasing thriller. Yet Scorsese was most known for titles that weren’t developed for mass consumption and were made with a more personal touch. Some of them turned out to be masterpieces – Mean Street, Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, GoodFellas.

Cape Fear was a different animal. A remake of a 1962 B movie thriller that starred Gregory Peck and Robert Mitchum. This would allow Scorsese to pay homage to it and Hitchcock’s catalog while modernizing it. Robert De Niro stars as Max Cady, a recently released convict with plans to exact revenge on his defense attorney Sam Bowden (Nick Nolte), who hid evidence that could have exonerated him. Unlike the 1962 predecessor, Sam’s family is not near picture perfect. Far from it. His wife Leigh (Jessica Lange) is still scarred from her husband’s past infidelities. Danielle (Juliette Lewis) is their bored and sometimes rebellious teenage daughter. One of the things that makes the picture most interesting is that Max is not just going after Sam for vengeful purposes. He has designs to emotionally wound the family even more and he succeeds.

The film is filled with nods to genre pictures that Scorsese undoubtedly feasted on as a young man. Anyone who’s read about him knows he’s an encyclopedia of the trade he’s exceled in for nearly half a century. And Cape Fear‘s greatness is due to the infectious joy that we feel due to Scorsese’s joy in creating it.

Yes, it’s a mainstream thriller with all the conventions we’ve come to expect. A phone ringing unexpectedly during a tense moment. Cady disguising himself in a manner which I still recall had crowds understandably gasping in the theater. However, Cape Fear comes equipped with a brilliant director and first-rate actors participating. De Niro (Scorsese’s go to actor before DiCaprio) is often terrifying in the role of the Southern menace wreaking havoc on the Bowdens. The actor infuses his character with a demented religious fervor and a workout regiment that shows him in a way you’ve never seen him before or since. He received an Oscar nomination and deserved it.

Nolte’s work is worth lots of praise, too. He successfully strays away from making the character heroic and it’s a great twist to have the protagonist written and portrayed in that way. Lange is equally impressive as the frustrated wife and Lewis is a revelation as Danielle. The most famous sequence in the pic involves Max’s first encounter with her. It’s been noted that the scene is improvised and it isn’t your typical scary movie scene, but it might be the most chilling thing of all. For those who’ve yet to see it, I won’t spoil it. The subplot involving Sam’s law clerk (Ileanna Douglas) and her encounter with Max is unforgettable and horrific as well. Their pairing provides our first glimpse of what our main character is capable of.

In a nod to the ’62 original, its stars Robert Mitchum, Gregory Peck, and Martin Balsam all appear in welcome cameos. Joe Don Baker (one of the terrific characters actors of our time) provides some fine and often humorous moments as a P.I. trying to help Sam out.

As you’d expect in a Scorsese pic, the technical aspects from music to cinematography and so forth are impeccable. Cape Fear may not get mentioned in the same conversations as the director’s beloved group of classics. That’s OK, but it’s a remarkable viewing experience in its own right. And on this Throwback Thursday – it’s one you need to seek out if you haven’t watched it. Or watch it again for that matter to see one of cinema’s best directors put his delicious spin on a well-worn genre.

**** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: September 26-28

Two new releases should top the box office this weekend as the Denzel Washington action pic The Equalizer and animated flick The Boxtrolls make their debuts on Friday. For my individual prediction posts on each, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/21/the-equalizer-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/21/the-boxtrolls-box-office-prediction/

I fully expect Denzel to easily rule the weekend with a just OK opening for Boxtrolls. If that animated title fails to meet its somewhat meager expectations, this week’s champ The Maze Runner has a shot at staying #2. I expect holdovers A Walk Among the Tombstones and This Is Where I Leave You to both lose about half their audience in weekend two.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Equalizer

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million

2. The Boxtrolls

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

3. The Maze Runner

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. A Walk Among the Tombstones

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. This Is Where I Leave You

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results (September 19-21)

The YA adaptation The Maze Runner opened  #1 as expected with a stealthy $32.5 million, ahead of my $26.1M estimate. As predicted above, it should suffer a fairly significant drop in its second weekend but with a reported $30M budget, it’s off to a great start and a sequel is already scheduled for 2015.

Not a good weekend for Liam Neeson as his A Walk Among the Tombstones suffered a disappointing debut with only $12.7 million, well below my $21.4M projection. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, audiences clearly weren’t “taken” with it, so to speak.

The ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You had a middling opening with $11.5 million, just below my $12.3M prediction. The trailers and TV spots just weren’t successful in making it look like a must-see, despite the star power of Jason Bateman and Tina Fey.

Last weekend’s #1 No Good Deed, as expected, suffered a precipitous drop grossing $9.7 million – just below my $10.7M projection. Still, it’s earned a solid $39 million in ten days. In its sophomore frame, Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the top five with $8.8 million – under my $10.8M estimate. The sequel, which isn’t matching its predecessor, has made $26 million so far.

Finally, I predicted the Kevin Smith directed horror pic Tusk would make $2.3 million on its limited number of screens, but it didn’t come close. It earned a paltry $886,000 playing in 602 venues.

That’s all for now, folks!

The Fault in Our Stars Movie Review

When we are of a certain age such as 16-18 as the main characters in The Fault in Our Stars are, everything seems to be of a bigger consequence than perhaps it is. Your emotions are magnified. We experience feelings that are truly for the first time. Love is one of them. And there are lots of movies where we see teens go through that journey for the first time. Yet few of them get it right. Few of them manage to capture the almost indescribable significance of discovering love at an age when you’re just beginning to understand it. Cameron Crowe’s Say Anything achieved that rare feat. There are several moments in Josh Boone’s picture that do, too. That’s it greatest strength in a story that follows patterns we’ve seen before to be sure. That said, Fault finds ways to make them seem fresh with lots of credit going to the actors.

In The Fault in Our Stars, the consequences of first love are heightened due to the bond that Hazel Grace (Shailene Woodley) and Augustus (Ansel Elgort) share. They are both diagnosed with cancer and meet in a support group that Hazel’s parents make her go to. Unlike most teens who fall for one another and believe their time together will never end, they know their relationship will be different and not timeless. Upon their meeting, Hazel has Augustus read her favorite book which chronicles a little girl’s battle with their disease. Augustus is frustrated when the book ends with no clear cut conclusion and it leads him to seeking out the reclusive writer (Willem Dafoe) in Amsterdam to get some answers. Once overseas, Hazel and Augustus may not achieve the resolution they’re looking for with the alcoholic author. However, the trip brings them closer together and deeper in love – even though the filmmakers (and author apparently) choose a rather odd location for them to share a first kiss.

While I am not familiar with the picture’s source material, I’m well aware that the John Green novel is widely read and beloved by many. There’s no doubt the cancer themes certainly strike a chord with so many for obvious reasons, but I suspect the Fault phenomenon may lie with my first point. So few screenplays and written works get first love right.

Part of the film’s success in that manner is due to Woodley and Elgort. They’re quite good together and Woodley, especially, has proven herself to be one of the most exciting young actresses working today. Between The Descendants, The Spectacular Now and this – she’s put together quite a remarkable resume of performances in short order. This movie would crumble if the chemistry between the two stars didn’t work and luckily it does. As Hazel’s parents, Laura Dern and Sam Trammell are understated and effective and Nat Wolff provides some often needed comic relief as Augustus’s friend who’s been blinded by cancer.

The Fault in Our Stars could’ve easily veered into overt melodrama, but it mostly avoids it. Much of this is thanks to the wonderful casting, but also the writing which realizes Hazel Grace and Augustus as smart and thoughtful teenagers (something many screenwriters know nothing of). Yes it’s a tearjerker, but the actors and writers earn them by rarely pandering to the audience and capturing the young true love emotions of its two stars.

*** (out of four)