A franchise will be reborn next Friday when Mad Max: Fury Road is unveiled in theaters. It’s been an entire 30 years since the title character has appeared on the silver screen. The original trilogy of dystopian future action flicks made a little known Aussie actor named Mel Gibson a star.
This time around Tom Hardy (of Bane fame) is Max with Charlize Theron and Nicholas Hoult in the supporting cast. George Miller, director of the first trilogy which dates back to 1979 (like me), is behind the camera once again.
There is no doubt that a generation or more of younger moviegoers don’t have much of a connection to the Max character. Yet my suspicion is that Fury Road will open very solid and the absolutely terrific trailers only help. The return of Max could yield an opening gross in the mid 40s as I see it.
Mad Max: Fury Road opening weekend prediction: $45.4 million
Only one new film is daring to even challenge the second weekend of the Avengers squad and that would be Hot Pursuit, the cop comedy starring Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It will attempt to bring in the female crowd and you can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I have Pursuit getting off to a pretty decent start, nothing will stand in the way of Iron Man and company reigning supreme for two weeks in a row. The big question is how far Ultron falls in its second frame. Will it drop the 50% that its 2012 predecessor did or in the 58% range of Iron Man 3 in 2013? I’ve got it dropping somewhere in between, though closer to the former (more on Avengers opening weekend further down).
The rest of the top five should be littered with leftovers all making under $4 million. The Jack Black/James Marsden comedy The D Train is only opening on around 700 screens and I’ll predict $1.7 million for it, which would leave it outside the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Predicted Gross: $90.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Hot Pursuit
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
3. Furious 7
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. The Age of Adaline
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (May 1-3)
All prognosticators had one question when it came to Avengers: Age of Ultron: would it manage to have the largest domestic opening of all time and beat out the $207.4 million record of The Avengers? I predicted it would with an estimate of $212.7 million.
And I and many others were wrong and you probably have American Pharoah, Blake Griffin, Tim Duncan, Floyd Mayweather, and Manny Pacquiao to thank. Ultron still performed gangbusters with $191.2 million, posting the second all-time domestic debut. Yet the sports bonanza that took place all day and night Saturday likely kept it from setting the record. Still – don’t expect to hear much complaining from Disney or Marvel.
Holdovers populated the rest of the top five with all pictures dropping further than I thought they would, due to Avengers and all the weekend activity. Furious 7 was second with $6.6 million (I said $9.6M) and it lifted its cume to $331M. The Age of Adaline took third in its second weekend with $6.2 million ($8M predicted here) and its ten day total is $23M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 was fourth with $5.8 million (I said $8.7M) and it’s made $51M at press time. Finally, Home was fifth with $3.4 million (my projection: $5.8M) and its total is $158M.
I went into Fifty Shades of Grey with the same open minded attitude that its central character Anastasia Steele (Dakota Johnson) goes into with her unconventional relationship with Christian Grey (Jamie Dornan). I was completely unfamiliar with the source material, though certainly aware of the wild popularity of the E.L. James novel it’s based upon. And I knew the breathless anticipation of its fans due to their love of the book. I’ve heard some writers claim that this film adaptation improves on the novel and I’m skeptical. 1) That’s normally not the case and 2) It must be a really bad book.
Fifty Shades is essentially a soft core porn with higher production values and admittedly lovely cinematography. The soundtrack is decent too. This is where my praise ends. The picture is also a boring and overlong melodrama with subpar acting and a one note screenplay that utterly fails to generate any genuine interest in the leads.
Anastasia is an about to be college grad majoring in English literature who meets Christian, a wealthy business magnate. Sparks fly in short order and she soon learns that his sexual tastes lie in the world of sadomasochism and bondage. Not only is Anastastia not accustomed to that world, she’s still a virgin. This sets off a crisis of conscience for Ms. Steele that goes on and on and interminably on. One minute she’s into it. The next she isn’t. Christian does what he can to get her into it while yawningly explaining his troubled backstory. We meet both of their families who add nothing. The next crisis of conscience arrives. Tears flow. Beyoncé song. Sex scene. Repeat.
Even when certain films or novels become cultural phenomenons, which this is, and I don’t enjoy them – I can usually understand why they became so popular. I’m stumped with Fifty Shades of Grey. As mentioned, there’s little that separates it from a Cinemax flick that airs at two in the morning. At least those pics know they’re trash. Perhaps some roles will come Johnson and Dornan’s way to show their capabilities but we don’t see it here. For all the talk about punishment in the two hours of this movie, we the audience receive the lion’s share of it. Not in a good way either.
Looking to make the kind of loot that the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy entry made two summers ago, Hot Pursuit opens this Friday. The comedy stars Reese Witherspoon and Modern Family’s Sofia Vergara. Oscar winner Witherspoon is the bumbling cop protecting Vergara’s witness character.
Reviews have yet to surface and the trailers don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. There’s also the matter of Avengers: Age of Ultron’s sophomore weekend, in which it should continue to easily dominate. Still, Reese has had a pretty solid track record in this genre, with hits like Legally Blonde, Sweet Home Alabama and Four Christmases. Yet that luck didn’t extend to her last comedy, 2012’s This Means War, which opened to just $17 million and petered out at $54 million domestic.
Pursuit should manage to make more than that and I’ll estimate a fairly decent low 20s premiere.
Hot Pursuit opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million
The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off this Friday and there’s a rather big release to start things off: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Marvel’s sequel to the third highest grossing picture of all time. The event film stands a very legitimate shot at scoring the largest opening weekend in domestic box office history (breaking its predecessor’s record) and I’m predicting it will – barely. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
No other new release would dare stand in the way of Iron Man, Captain America, and their superhero compadres – so the rest of the top five will be populated by spring leftovers. Furious 7 will fall to the runner-up spot with Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, The Age of Adaline, and Home behind it.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Predicted Gross: $212.7 million
2. Furious 7
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. The Age of Adaline
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. Home
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 29%)
Box Office Results (April 24-26)
As expected, Furious 7 led the box office for the fourth weekend in a row with $17.8 million, a bit higher than my $15.6M estimate. The massive hit has taken in $320 million so far.
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 also managed to surpass my prediction in its second weekend with $14.7 million as compared to my $12M projection. The Kevin James sequel won’t reach the heights of the original, but it’s grossed a solid $43 million in ten days of release.
The romantic drama The Age of Adaline had a fairly decent roll out with $13.2 million, right on target with $13.3M prediction. It may hold up OK in subsequent weekends.
The animated Home took fourth with $8 million, outpacing my $6.5M estimate and its total is at $153M. #5 belonged to horror pic Unfriended in weekend two with $6.1 million, just under my $6.9M prediction and it stands at $25 million.
Critically acclaimed British sci-fi import Ex Machina opened sixth with $5.4 million (below my $7.1M projection, but still a pretty impressive start).
Finally, war drama Little Boy tanked in 13th place with just $2.7 million, just ahead of my $2.1M estimate.
Jennifer Kent’s The Babadook deals with the heaviness of a widowed mother raising her young son and throws in a horror flick to boot. This low budget Australian import announces a new director in Kent who holds tremendous premise. She knows her way about the genre and how to provide some spine tingling moments with her direction and in the screenplay.
Amelia (Essie Davis) has one 6 year old son Samuel (Noah Wiseman). On the date of his birth, her father was killed driving her to the hospital. To her relatives, neighbors and coworkers, she tries to pretend like everything’s fine. In reality, she can’t even speak her late husband’s name or have anything resembling a conversation about him. That’s not her only family issue. Samuel is a very troubled child whose disruptive behavior gets him kicked out of school. Quite literally, Samuel won’t let his mom have even a moment’s pleasure. He builds weapons to fight imaginary monsters. Yet as we all know in these types of films, maybe these darn kids know a little more about what’s really going on than the adults.
This is when Amelia comes across a graphic and ominous kids book called Mister Babadook, featuring a character who wishes to inflict harm on them. The concept is familiar – once you read about Babadook, you can’t get rid of him. From that moment on, The Babadook follows the playbook of the scores of demonic possession pics before it.
While there’s really nothing truly new going on here, there’s enough positives in Kent’s debut to satisfy horror enthusiasts. For starters, Davis gives a remarkable performance that must consistently shift between concerned and sleep deprived mother and, well, something else. Wiseman certainly acquits himself well and is highly believable as a freaked out youngster. The Babadook is as much about Amelia’s strange journey to confront her undealt with sorrow over her loss than anything else. It just takes a sinister children’s book psycho to deal with it.
The 2015 Summer Movie Season kicks off in grand fashion as Avengers: Age of Ultron debuts and looks to Hulk smash records. The mystery surrounding how it performs in its opening is centered on one question: will it have the biggest domestic debut in movie history? In order to do so, it’ll need to top the record currently held by its 2012 predecessor. That magic number is $207.4 million.
All the favorites are back, including director Joss Whedon with Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, Black Widow, Hulk, Hawkeye, and more returning. Newbies include James Spader voicing the title character villain and Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Elizabeth Olsen as Quicksilver and Scarlet Witch. There are two more Avengers features already planned for 2018 and 2019. While a number of reviews say it doesn’t quite match the original, its 80% Rotten Tomatoes rating is solid.
There is little doubt that Ultron is highly primed to become summer’s largest grosser. Whether or not it reaches the $623M eventual mark of The Avengers remains to be seen (that’s good for the 3rd biggest hit ever behind Avatar and Titanic).
Some prognosticators are estimating it may not quite reach the heights of 2012 in its opening. The floor would seem to be in the $180M range, which would be just fine but still $25M under the first. While that’s certainly possible, I do believe Ultron will debut with around the same number of its predecessor… and a bit higher. That means I’m predicting Ultron will set a new benchmark in the category of all-time record openings and Disney and Marvel will be popping the champagne corks come next weekend.
Avengers: Age of Ultron opening weekend prediction: $212.7 million
A legitimate wild card this weekend at the box office could be Ex Machina, a British science fiction tale that’s been on the receiving end of positive reviews and impressive per screen averages in limited release. It opens nationwide Friday, though I’ve yet to see a screen count which makes a prediction a little more complicated. Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac are among the cast in the directorial debut of Alex Garland, writer of 28 Days Later and Dredd.
The critically acclaimed feature (it sits at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes) made nearly $800,000 on just 39 screens last weekend for a sparkling $20k per screen average. That could bode well for filmgoers looking for a more serious sci fi offering before the summer onslaught begins with Avengers next weekend.
Again, without a screen count, it’s a tricky projection but I’ll estimate Ex Machina finds its way into the top five.
Ex Machina opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
The final weekend at the box office in 2015 will likely be memorable only as “the weekend before Avengers: Age of Ultron comes out” as that summer season kick off blockbuster may be poised for the largest domestic opening of all time.
As for this weekend, the romance The Age of Adaline with Blake Lively and Harrison Ford comes out. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
Adaline does have a shot at the top spot, but I’m projecting it will fall a bit short of Furious 7, allowing that enormous hit to have its fourth weekend at #1.
The real wild card this weekend is Ex Machina, a critically acclaimed British science entry starring Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac. My prediction post on it is here and I’m estimating it’ll land in fourth place:
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 got off to a healthy start last weekend and should lose about half its audience in its sophomore frame. Horror flick Unfriended should drop over 50%, as most pics of its genre in their second weekends do. Home, Dreamworks animated solid performer, should round out the top five.
There’s also Little Boy, a World War II comedic drama with Kevin James. Huh? I don’t expect much out of it as it should fall far outside of the top six:
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)
2. The Age of Adaline
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2
Predicted Gross: $12 million (representing a drop of 49%)
4. Ex Machina
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. Unfriended
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 56%)
6. Home
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)
Box Office Results (April 17-19)
In its third weekend, Furious 7 was tops again with $29.1 million, just under my $30.4M estimate. The Universal juggernaut stands at $294 million.
Kevin James surpassed most expectations as his critically drubbed Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 earned $23.7 million, a bit higher than my $21.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $31 million accomplished by the original, but it wasn’t expected to and this is a solid result.
Similarly, the low budget horror entry Unfriended had a commendable $15.8 million debut, outpacing my $12.6M projection.
In fourth, Home’s $10.6 million haul came in below my $12.3M estimate and its total is at $142 million. In its second weekend, romantic drama The Longest Ride was fifth with $7 million. My prediction? Exactly that! It’s made $23 million in its ten days of release.
Disney’s nature documentary Monkey Kingdom made just $4.5 million for a weak 8th place showing, not reaching my $5.9M guess. Even further down the chart and outside the top ten, the James Franco/Jonah Hill drama True Story opened on around 800 screens and managed a paltry $1.9 million (under my generous $3.7M prediction). Even worse, Child 44 with Tom Hardy premiered on just over 500 screens. I thought it would eek out a $2.1 million gross, yet it bombed badly with just $621,000 for a 17th place debut.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Let’s Be Cops has roughly the effect of probably watching a student film trying to mimic a decent buddy cop comedy/action flick. And that may be an unfair insult to the work of students and their films. It’s amateurish, poorly written, and gives its actors (some of them quite talented, but you don’t see it here) little to work with. Director/co-writer Luke Greenfield and Nicholas Thomas’s screenplay is mostly devoid of anything resembling originality and quite absent of many genuine laughs.
The concept is simple: two lifelong buddies have made a pact to leave Los Angeles by the time they’re 30 if they haven’t “made it”. Justin (Damon Wayans Jr.) is a struggling video game developer and Ryan (Jake Johnson) is a once promising college quarterback sidelined by a past injury. Clearly they haven’t made it and they’re prepared to return to Columbus, Ohio (I don’t know why my city had to be brought into this mess). A costume party interferes with their California split when they dress up as cops and – wouldn’t you know it! – they get mistaken for actual law enforcement. Suddenly women find them attractive! They can get into clubs easily! And they get caught up with some bad guy Albanians!
Let us count just some of the citations of mediocrity (to be kind) in this screenplay:
1) Jake’s past football glory days cause him to spend his days voluntarily teaching a bunch of young boys the game while cussing them out the majority of the time. It’s more creepy than funny.
2) Justin is supposed to be some genius video game developer whose bosses just don’t understand him, but his “genius” pitch for a game called Patrolman seems really familiar and dull.
3) The main baddie played by James D’Arcy is quite possibly the most cliched villain in a genre ripe with them.
4) Talented comic performers like Rob Riggle and Natasha Leggero are saddled with little to do.
I could go on and the same rule applies to Johnson and Wayans Jr., who can’t rise above the material despite their efforts. And there’s Andy Garcia as the time honored crooked cop (the true nature of his character is supposed to a big reveal, but you won’t care).
The screenwriters bank on this flimsy premise of watching these two play boy in blue providing consistent humor for 100 minutes. It would have been great if “Let’s Be Just A Little Original” would have made it into their game plan.
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