Olympic sports tale Eddie the Eagle debuts next weekend, which recounts the true story of the first Brit to participate in the ski jump competition at the 1988 games. The inspirational pic features Taron Egerton in the title role with Hugh Jackman and Christopher Walken among the supporting cast.
Eagle has garnered mostly positive notices, as it currently stands at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes. Trailers and TV spots have been decent, but I’m not sure this subject matter will break through in any significant way for Lionsgate. It could, however, do more brisk business in the U.K. I believe this will just manage to debut in double digits, which will probably give it a bronze medal behind Deadpool and Gods of Egypt.
Eddie the Eagle opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
Saddled with a rather inexplicable reported $140 million price tag, action fantasy saga Gods of Egypt hits screens next weekend. It may be lucky to capture a third of its massive budget domestically and be one of the costliest flops of 2016’s first quarter.
Directed by Alex Proyas, who gave us Dark City and I, Robot, Gods features some recognizable faces including Gerard Butler, Geoffrey Rush, Rufus Sewell, and Chadwick Boseman. The Lionsgate release comes just a week after Risen and the week before London Has Fallen and with Deadpool still making a killing. In other words, there’s a lot of competition for the genre crowd.
I just don’t see Gods doing any significant business. Anything over $20 million would surprise me and I believe this will struggle to even reach $15M for a majorly disappointing start.
Gods of Egypt opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
Two years ago, the Berlin Film Festival premiered a pair of films that garnered a total of 15 Oscar nominations – Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel and Richard Linklater’s Boyhood. Both were nominated for Best Picture.
One of the hottest titles to emerge from 2016’s Festival that could potentially merit Academy Awards chatter is Jeff Nichols’ Midnight Special, a science fiction drama that received glowing reviews. Nichols is the director behind critical darlings Take Shelter and Mud. His pictures have yet to receive awards attention, but that may finally change. Special stars Michael Shannon, Joel Edgerton, Adam Driver, Kirsten Dunst, and Jaeden Lieberher (the child actor who costarred alongside Bill Murray in St. Vincent).
With an 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the film is said to be a throwback to 80s sci-fi efforts of Spielberg and John Carpenter. Reviews have especially made note of Shannon and Dunst’s work, who could be factors in the Actor and Supporting Actress races, respectively. Best Picture and Director could figure in, however I believe Special‘s best chance might be in Original Screenplay, penned by the director.
Obviously it’s early in 2016 to see how this will pan out. Yet if Special can manage solid box office grosses (a question mark) and remain in conversations over the remainder of the year, it could join Hotel and Boyhood as another Berlin success story.
**There are unavoidable spoilers in order to write a proper review of Room. You’ve been warned.
Emotionally gripping and powered by a pair of magnificent lead performances, Lenny Abrahamson’s Room is structured into two sections. Each is filled with fear and each is filled with love and in circumstances unimaginable.
“Room” is a garden shed where Joy (Brie Larson) has been held captive for seven years. Her kidnapper is called “Old Nick” (Sean Bridgers) and his repeated sexual assaults resulted in child (Jack), who turns 5 years old as we open. The first near half of the pic is set in Room and it’s all Jack has ever known. Joy has done her best to raise a smart young boy and had to be creative about explaining other people on their TV set, among many other things.
Jack’s advancing age allows Joy to begin telling him kernels of the truth and she soon enlists him to participate in a daring escape. The sequence in which this is pulled off is one of the more suspenseful I’ve seen recently as we grow attached to this mother and son. In a conventional thriller, this would be fade out. Yet once free, they must adjust to life outside that tiny shed that Jack believed was the universe. This is Room’s second act.
Joy is reunited with her parents, who bear their own scars from losing their teenage girl. Items like phones and stairs are foreign objects to their grandson. And while Jack eventually begins to conform to his seemingly alien world, it’s Ma (as he calls her) who struggles the most.
Room is told from the perspective of Jack, who’s narration pops up voicing over his views of what’s happening. Obviously he has no clue of the horrific situation he’s been raised in. Based on Emma Donoghue’s novel that she herself adapted here, the pic is often graced with subtle and moving moments. The dynamics of Joy and her family members aren’t over explained upon her return and don’t need to be.
While its screenplay and direction are impressive, it’s unquestionably the work of Larson and Tremblay that put this material on an even higher level. Larson has a challenging role and there’s a lot of subtext involved. Her journey after her escape isn’t an obvious one and the actress has us with her the whole way. Perhaps even more awe inspiring is Tremblay, who gives one of the most natural heart wrenching child actor performances I’ve ever seen.
Both inside and outside that shed, Room grabs us with its visions through the innocent eyes of a boy living in two vastly different worlds with one common bond.
Three new entries hit theaters this weekend to compete with the box office bonanza that is Deadpool. They are: Biblical drama Risen, Jesse Owens biopic Race, and critically lauded horror flick The Witch. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Not one of them has any realistic shot of overtaking Ryan Reynolds and his very R rated superhero as that pic left a pool of box office records in its wake over the long weekend (much more on that below).
Risen, which could bring in a faith based contigent, could well end up in the runner up position with Race battling both How to Be Single and Kung Fu Panda 3 for the three spot. I don’t look for The Witch to accomplish much, despite its solid reviews, and have it pegged for 6th place (in what could be a photo finish with Zoolander No. 2‘s sophomore weekend after its disappointing debut).
The second weekend of Deadpool could see it falling in the mid-high 50s percentage wise, which would be on par with other major comic book grossers. Still, I couldn’t have been more wrong with how big it was going to be (along with pretty much all other prognosticators), so who knows?
Nevertheless – we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:
Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $58.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. Risen
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
3. Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Race
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
5. How to Be Single
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)
6. The Witch
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
7. Zoolander No. 2
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
Box Office Results (February 12-14)
It’s only February, but there’s no question that the opening weekend of Deadpool will be one of the box office stories of the year. The well-reviewed R rated superhero pic grossed an absolutely astonishing $132.4 million over the traditional weekend – embarassing my meager $58.2M projection. The film’s four day President’s Day haul: $152.1M. Sometimes movies turn into phenomenons and that’s the case here. Expect to see plenty of Ryan Reynolds in this role into the future as this had the largest February and largest R rated debut of all time. Additionally, it had the 17th highest domestic premiere of all time.
Kung Fu Panda 3 dropped to second with $19.7 million in week #3, holding up considerably better my than $14 million estimate. The toon’s total stands at $100M.
Rom com How to Be Single had a respectable debut in third place with $17.8 million (on target with my $18.7M prediction) and its four day is $19.9M. Not a bad start and this certainly can claim a small victory for opening higher than the Zoolander sequel.
Speaking of, the news was not so good for Ben Stiller and company as Zoolander No. 2 stumbled out of the runway with just $13.8 million, well below my $20.9M prediction. This was expected to open in second place and certainly not fourth. Poor reviews didn’t help and neither did a good portion of its intended audience watching that filthy superhero instead. Its holiday four day total: $15.8M.
Oscar hopeful The Revenant was fifth with $6.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. Its total is at $159M.
Sixth place belonged to Hail, Caesar! in its second weekend with $6.3 million, in line with my $5.6M projection. Its total gross is at an OK $22M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
When it premiered last year at the Sundance Film Festival, horror pic The Witch received mostly raves (it sits at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes… frighteningly good for that genre). We’ll see how that translates to box office dollars when it opens wide next weekend.
The 17th Century set tale of witchcraft features a cast of relative unknowns and comes from first time director Robert Eggers, who also wrote this critically acclaimed effort. The film has received a rather modest marketing push and anything above double digits would be quite an accomplishment.
Considering its tiny reported $1 million budget, however, A24 Films is poised to see a tidy return on their investment. The Witch should earn anywhere from $4-8 million and I’ll go in the middle range of that spectrum.
The Witch opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million
A biopic focusing on the story of African American Olympian Jesse Owens, Race hits screens next weekend and hopes to inspire moviegoers into the multiplexes. Stephan James plays Owens with Jason Sudeikis, William Hurt, and Jeremy Irons in the supporting cast.
The chances of Race entering the stratosphere of Jackie Robinson biopic 42 three years ago seems unlikely. That pic made $27 million out of the gate. I believe Race may be lucky to reach half that number in its debut. Good reviews could help (they’re not out yet), but anything above $15 million would be surprising. I’ll predict this just manages double digits for a somewhat decent debut, though far from a runaway hit.
Biblical drama Risen graces theaters next weekend and it should continue the unpredictable nature of how faith based features perform. Directed by Kevin Reynolds (best known in the 90s for Kevin Costner pics Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves and Waterworld), Risen stars Joseph Fiennes (recently in the headlines for being cast as Michael Jackson in a film), Tom Felton, Peter Firth, and Cliff Curtis.
The film focuses on the uprising caused by the rumors of a risen Jesus Christ in Jerusalem. Columbia Pictures would be thrilled to see this approach the $25 million opening that Son of God managed two years ago.
I’m a bit skeptical that it will. As mentioned, these Bible themed features are often unpredictable when it comes to grosses because it’s tough to determine how much of the church crowd will turn out. If this approached $20 million, I certainly wouldn’t be shocked. I also wouldn’t be totally surprised if it struggle to get past double digits. I’ll say a gross in the mid teens is most feasible.
Far from a Christmas comedy classic nor a lump of coal, The Night Before gives us a drug fueled holiday happening from the team of Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg. They’ve penned better work in the form of Superbad, Pineapple Express, and This is the End and this is more on the level (though not tone) of the hit or miss humor of The Interview.
Before centers on three friends who have a Christmas Eve tradition of spending their time together after Ethan’s (Joseph Gordon Levitt) parents died. His supportive buddies are Isaac (Rogen) and Chris (Anthony Mackie) and they’ve agreed that their 14th year of buddying up will be their last. Isaac is married and ready to become a first time dad and Chris is a famous NFL player. Their lives are moving on while Ethan remains aimless, especially after a recent breakup with the lovely Lizzy Caplan. The boys make sure their final excursion is hopefully a memorable one when Ethan scores tickets to the Nutcracker Ball, an NYC kick ass bash they’ve only heard about in mythological terms.
Getting there is a challenge for many reasons. Isaac’s wife (Jillian Bell, who stole scenes in 22 Jump Street and does here) gives him a night to let his freak flag fly and that means lots of narcotics. Chris gets caught up with the wrong woman and is preoccupied with impressing his newer celebrity friends. Ethan is struggling with the knowledge that life’s traditions are changing.
While The Night Before is centered on these sometimes not so wise men, some supporting players shine. This holds especially true for Michael Shannon’s drug dealer character, who seems to possess powers even more potent than his weed. Mindy Kaling amusingly turns up and there’s some fairly effective (if obvious) celebrity cameos sprinkled in.
The proceedings don’t really pick up steam until close to the hour mark and what comes before it is often ho (ho) hum. Ethan and Chris’s storylines are just OK and the biggest guffaws come from Isaac on his pharmaceutically fueled journey. One wonders how good this could’ve been if it focused solely on him. The Night Before has its laughs to be sure, but it’s on the lower end of what these writers have accomplished before.
Three potential heavy hitters open this joint President’s/Valentine’s Day weekend: R rated superhero pic Deadpool, Ben Stiller comedy sequel Zoolander No. 2, and Dakota Johnson rom com How to Be Single. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
The new trio is likely to place 1-3 on the charts with current two week champ Kung Fu Panda 3 slipping to fourth and Hail, Caesar! probably rounding out the top five after a fairly lackluster debut.
Deadpool seems to be the one generating the most heat and it should dominate with Zoolander and Single in a close contest for second. With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
**Please note these predictions are for the three day weekend and do not include the Monday President’s Day…
Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $58.2 million
2. Zoolander No. 2
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. How to Be Single
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. Hail, Caesar!
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (February 5-7)
As expected, Dreamworks animated Kung Fu Panda 3 stayed atop the charts while all three newcomers came in below my estimates. Panda earned $21.2 million, right in line with my $21.6M projection for a two week total of $69 million.
The Coen Brothers star studded comedy Hail, Caesar! had a ho hum $11.3 million debut, under my $14.3M prediction. While critics were mostly happy with it, Cinemascore audiences only gave it a dismal C- grade – hence my projection that it will lose over half its audience next weekend.
Holdovers Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant essentially tied for third, with each earning $6.9 million. The Revenant (which was officially fourth) came in a bit below my $8.3M estimate and its total is at $149M. I incorrectly had Star Wars (officially third) outside of the top five and it has amassed $905M at press time.
The Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Choice had a limp debut in fifth with $6 million. I gave it too much credit with $9.6M. Same goes for newbie Pride and Prejudice and Zombies which placed sixth with only $5.3 million compared to my $8.1M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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