Blumhouse Productions specializes in low-budget horror flicks and they’ve got once teed up for early summer with The Darkness, out next weekend. Kevin Bacon and Radha Mitchell star in a tale of a Grand Canyon vacation bringing back a supernatural being. David Mazouz, Matt Walsh, and Jennifer Morrison costar. Greg McLean, who directed Wolf Creek, is behind the camera.
The studio has seen their share of genre successes, including the Paranormal Activity, Sinister, Insidious, and Purge franchises. There’s also been some relative disappointments, such as Dark Skies, Oculus, The Gallows, and The Green Inferno.
The Darkness doesn’t seem to have much buzz going for it and appears unlikely to light up the box office. I’ll predict this doesn’t reach double digits.
The Darkness opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
George Clooney and Julia Roberts headline Money Monster, out next weekend, as this Jodie Foster directed thriller attempts to lure in adults for some early summer counter programming. I’m not confident it’ll work out too well.
The TriStar release, budgeted at a reasonable $30 million, stars Clooney as a financial TV guru held hostage live on air with Roberts as his exec producer. Jack O’Connell and Dominic West costar.
This pic is a rather odd choice for the second weekend in May and might’ve been better suited for a spring or early fall release. If it doesn’t perform well, it won’t be for lack of marketing as the TV spots have been featured heavily on the money monsters we call cable news networks. It could struggle to reach the opening weekends of the two leads lesser performers such as Clooney’s The American ($13.1 million) or Julia’s Duplicity ($13.9 million). And even though Foster has received two Oscars for her acting, her directorial efforts Little Man Tate, Home for the Holidays, and The Beaver have yet to yield a dam hit (get it?).
I’ll predict Money Monster doesn’t reach the teens out of the gate.
Money Monster opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million
Disney and Marvel once again stake claim to the first weekend of May’s box office spot as they have for six of the last eight years when Captain America: Civil War invades theaters this weekend. It is the first summer movie of the year and it stands an excellent chance at being the biggest of them all. You can read my detailed prediction post on it right here:
My $205.6 million opening weekend prediction puts it at #4 all-time, just below 2012’s The Avengers at $207M and above last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron, which bowed to $191M. The company it finds itself in between is appropriate as Civil War is essentially a third Avengers pic, with Iron Man, Black Widow, Ant-Man, Spider-Man, and more joining Chris Evans’ title character.
As for holdovers, Disney should have no trouble at the #2 position as The Jungle Book will slip there after three weeks on top. Keanu, The Huntsman Winter’s War, Zootopia and Mother’s Day should make up the rest in a tightly bunched formation that I have with all around $5M.
And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
Captain America: Civil War
Predicted Gross: $205.6 million
2. The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)
3. Mother’sDay
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Keanu
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 48%)
5. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 14%)
6. The Huntsman Winter’s War
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (April 29-May 1)’
As expected, Disney’s The Jungle Book slayed its competitors for a third weekend on top with $43.7 million (higher than my $37.9M estimate) for a grand total of $253M. The Mouse Factory’s mega-hit will finally be replaced by another Mouse Factory mega-hit this weekend.
And now for the non mega-hits. The Huntsman Winter’s Way remained in second with $9.6 million for a tepid total of $34M. It did manage to top my $8.1M projection.
Newbies did not fare well. Despite mostly positive reviews, Key and Peele’s comedy Keanu managed just $9.4 million in third, well below my generous $17.6M prediction.
The news was even worse for Mother’s Day (which got scathing reviews) which debuted in fourth with only $8.3 million (I said $14.7M).
Barbershop: The Next Cut rounded out with top five with $6 million – in line with my $6.2M estimate for a three-week take of $44M.
The video game inspired Ratchet & Clank disappointed in seventh with only $4.8 million, just under my $5.2M prediction. That meant Disney’s Zootopia (in weekend #8) was sixth with $5.3 million ($323M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top six.
And that’ll for now, ladies and gentlemen! Until next time…
“Joy and pain. Like sunshine and rain.” – Rob Base & D.J. E-Z Rock
David O. Russell’s latest tells a fable grounded in reality of Joy Mangano, who invented a new way to clean floors in the early 90s with the Miracle Mop. It continues his habit during this decade of taking ordinary people and telling their extraordinary situations.
Our title character is portrayed by Russell’s muse Jennifer Lawrence. As a little girl, we see that she loves making inventions with her hands. This leads to the aforementioned mop, though selling it is no easy feat. Her quirky family includes her father Rudy (Robert De Niro, thankfully doing his best work nowadays with this director), who is restless in his love life and in a burgeoning relationship with a wealthy widow (Isabella Rossellini). That widow provides a pipeline to funding the Miracle operation, though not without serious reservations and Joy mortgaging her home twice. Joy’s mother (Virginia Madsen) is essentially an anti-social shut in who exists vicariously through the soap opera characters she watches all day. This allows for some interesting cameos. There’s Joy’s aspiring singer ex-husband (Edgar Ramirez), who still lives with her and serves as a trusted advisor. And Diane Ladd is her constantly supportive grandmother, who narrates these proceedings.
Joy is about the many pains that she must face to convince her family and the consuming public that she’s onto something. The journey eventually leads her to the upstart QVC, headed by a sturdy executive (Bradley Cooper) who conducts the network’s infomercials like an orchestra (her first segment is directed with the energy and enthusiasm we expect from this filmmaker). This allows for the fascinating of seeing Melissa Rivers play her late mother Joan. She soon learns the gloomy side of business, even when success comes. The picture is divided into two halves. The first is mostly about the pain of getting her venture started. The second has more joy and a little more sunshine, but pain is always around the corner. Rob Base and DJ E-Z Rock couldn’t have known these lyrics would apply here, but they do.
More than anything, Joy gives Lawrence another platform to shine and she takes advantage. The film never does reach the emotional, comedic, or dramatic heights of previous efforts like The Fighter and, in particular, Silver Linings Playbook. By the movie’s end, we are dealing with a central character who’s gone from sketching her designs in crayon to a multi-million dollar empire. Yet her saga never feels as fraught with nervous excitement as that regional Pennsylvania dance contest in Playbook. Still, Joy’s strange odyssey is one worth taking due to Russell’s exuberance and Lawrence’s talent.
Summer 2016 kicks off in grand Disney/Marvel fashion when Captain America: Civil War debuts next Friday. It is the first weekend of May’s only wide release, as no other studio would dare try counter programming against this surefire juggernaut. This is the third entry in the Captain America franchise, but it is essentially a third Avengers feature as Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man, Paul Rudd’s Ant-Man, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye, Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch, and the debuts of Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man all join Chris Evans’ Cap for this extravaganza. Sebastian Shaw, William Hurt, and Daniel Bruhl also appear. Essentially, only Thor and Hulk are missing here.
The Marvel Cinematic Universe has been a multi-billion dollar bonanza for Disney and Marvel Studios. This 13th picture in the MCU has been greeted with terrific buzz and trailers and its critical response stands at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics have gone as far to call it the best MCU movie thus far and this has led to expectations for its opening being understandably sky-high.
How high are we talking? Civil War seems primed to have at least the fifth largest domestic debut of all time. To do so, it would need to top Iron Man 3 and its $174 million opening and $175M seems to be on the lower end of expectations. The current #4 record belongs to summer 2015’s first flick, Avengers: Age of Ultron, which made $191 million. #3 is the original Avengers at $207 million with last summer’s Jurassic World second at $208 million.
The only record I don’t see this competing for is the big daddy – Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $247 million in December. I believe Civil War, with buzz hotter than Ultron, will manage have a larger start and I really wouldn’t be surprised if it does indeed top $200 million. I’m going to peg it at just below what 2012’s Avengers accomplished to make it the second largest MCU debut and fourth highest all-time opening.
Captain America: Civil War opening weekend prediction: $205.6 million
Three new entries populate the box office this weekend as the Key and Peele comedy Keanu, Jennifer Aniston/Julia Roberts dramedy Mother’s Day, and video game based animated pic Ratchet & Clank open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
None of them are likely to knock Disney’s The Jungle Book off its perch at #1, which will be the third weekend on top for Mowgli and friends.
Keanu and Mother’s Day should nab the #2 and #3 positions. I have The Huntsman Winter’s War dropping to fourth and it should have a pretty hefty decline after its disappointing opening (more on that below).
I’m not expecting much out of Ratchet & Clank and have it fighting for fifth with the third weekend of Barbershop: The Next Cut and slightly losing that battle.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $37.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)
2. Keanu
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. Mother’s Day
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
4. The Huntsman Winter’s War
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)
5. Barbershop: The Next Cut
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)
6. Ratchet & Clank
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (April 22-24)
Disney’s The Jungle Book kept swinging along in its sophomore frame with $61.5 million, just above my $59M projection for a two-week tally of $192M. As mentioned, it should easily retain its #1 status next weekend before another Mouse Factory entry – Captain America: Civil War – does its thing in a few days.
The weekend’s major newcomer was also quite a high-profile flop. The Huntsman Winter’s War, the sort of prequel/sequel to 2012’s hit Snow White and the Huntsman, earned just $19.4 million (lower than my $26.3M estimate). With a reported $115 million budget, War couldn’t overcome toxic reviews and the absence of Kristen Stewart (aka Snow White). The pic may struggle to even reach the $56 million that Snow White made in its opening weekend. Ouch.
Barbershop: The Next Cut was third in its second weekend with $10.5 million, in line with my $11.2M prediction for a total of $35M.
Zootopia was fourth with $6.5 million, higher than my estimate of $5M for a $316M total.
Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss rounded out the top five with $6.2 million, ahead of my $4.9M projection for a three-week take of $49M (pretty low for one of her comedies).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Next weekend, the video game based 3D animated feature Ratchet & Clank plays in theaters and will try to gain a fanboy audience and a family audience who may still be distracted by The Jungle Book. The pic features the voices of Paul Giamatti, John Goodman, Bella Thorne, Rosario Dawson, and Sylvester Stallone.
I’m not confident at all that this will manage to ratchet up any business. Films based on video games have a shoddy track record and the aforementioned competition (Disney’s Jungle juggernaut should still be #1) could hinder its potential.
I’ll predict this just clears $5 million and that Ratchet & Clank will be available for viewing on PlayStation consoles in short order.
Ratchet & Clank opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million
Director Garry Marshall is back in holiday themed comedy mode as Mother’s Day hits screens next weekend. This follows 2010’s Valentine’s Day, which took in an amazing $52 million out of the gate. The following year’s New Year’s Eve couldn’t keep up and its toxic reviews helped lead to a muted $13 million debut.
Mother’s Day doesn’t have the cavalcade of stars that the previous entries did, but it does feature Jennifer Aniston, Julia Roberts, Kate Hudson, and Jason Sudeikis. Open Road Films is hopeful this can attract a female crowd while the males could be tempted by Key and Peele’s Keanu, premiering on the same day.
I’ll predict Mother’s Day does manage to outpace New Year’s Eve by a bit, but it won’t come near the love audiences showed for Valentine’s Day.
Mother’s Day opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million
The comedic stylings of Key (Keegan-Michael Key) and Peele (Jordan Peele) come to the big screen with Keanu, out next weekend. The R rated laugher centers around a cat theft and our leads getting caught up with some violent criminals. Method Man, Gabrielle Union, Nia Long, Will Forte, Luis Guzman, and, yes, Keanu Reeves costar.
Keanu’s dynamic duo are known for their hit Comedy Central show, which just ended its run last year. Their first film vehicle premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival to solid buzz and its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 75%.
Will audiences follow Key and Peele to the multiplex? If this got to over $20 million in its premiere, Warner Bros would be over the moon. I believe a more likely result is in the mid to high teens.
Michael Dougherty’s Krampus begins with a stampede at a mall set to “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas”. These are the Black Friday throw downs we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. In some ways, it is scarier and more amusing that what follows for the rest of the film. That said, this anti-Christmas tale is not without its occasional charms and pleasingly out there moments.
For those unfamiliar, Krampus is a centuries old European legend (you can Google) of a ghoulish monster that preys on families who’ve lost their faith in Santa Claus. The yuppie suburbanite Engel family (led by parents Adam Scott and Toni Collette) has almost attained that status, with their young son Max (Emjay Anthony) being the holdout. That changes when their relatives come to visit – they’re a not so well to do clan that consists of David Koechner (think Cousin Eddie with more firearms), his wife and their four children. There’s also aunt Dorothy (Conchata Ferrell), whose solution to the non family fun consists of plenty of Schnapps to keep warm and slightly zoned out.
Speaking of warm, when an out of the blue blizzard hits, the house loses power and connection to the outside world. Adam Scott’s mother called Omi (an effectively creepy Krista Stadler) makes certain a constant hot fire is burning and it’s not just to keep the group comfrotable and aunt Dorothy even more toasted. She knows the story of Krampus first hand and that backstory is relayed in a nifty stop motion animation sequence and she’s trying to keep the anti-Claus from coming down the chimney for more than milk and cookies.
Krampus has his set of little helpers to wreak havoc on the family and this allows for gingerbread menaces and more. It also allows for some knowingly chintzy CG effects and some genuinely impressive ones, too. The title character does look pretty imposing. In fact, when we move into the third act, I really wanted to hang out with him a little more.
Dougherty is known most for his screenplays for superhero tales like X2 and Superman Returns. This is his second directorial feature after 2007’s Trick ‘r’ Treat, a Halloween themed horror anthology which became a cult favorite. That also had some demented and funny moments and was a little overrated in some circles. Krampus may attain that same status. The PG-13 vibe is actually welcome here and this does often feel like it could have been made 30 years ago when that rating was churning out similar genre titles like Gremlins or Critters. It’s a picture when a swear word (spoken by our kid protagonist) feels pleasingly well placed and kind of retro cool.
Yet I can’t deny that Krampus isn’t too frightening and that some of the hoped for laughs grow tiresome. It has plenty of spirit, but never attains the level of Xmas horror classic that it wishes to be. Dougherty has now done two fright fests built around the holidays to moderate success. Perhaps his Arbor or Columbus Day take will be that third charm.
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