As the weekend approaches, the burning box office questions are clear:
How will the animated Ferdinand open after Pixar’s Coco has dominated the charts for three weeks straight?
Could Wonder jump above Justice League as they enter their fifth respective weekends?
How well will The Disaster Artist hold after an impressive 800 theater expansion?
Oh… who am I kidding? We all know what this weekend is really about…
Star Wars: The Last Jedi freaking opens!!! After The Force Awakens crushed every box office record in sight two years ago, anticipation is mighty high for episode VIII. You can read my detailed prediction on it and Ferdinand here:
As you can see, I have Jedi slated for the second biggest domestic debut of all time behind its predecessor. My estimate puts it about $28 million shy of Awakens.
My take on Ferdinand is that it will get close to $20 million (it could surpass it) for a solid second place showing as it will may play well into the holiday frames ahead.
The rest of the top 6 should be filled with leftovers as a handful of high-profile titles open in the approaching Christmas weekend.
Here’s my top 6 projections:
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $219.7 million
2. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $18.6 milion
3. Coco
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. TheDisasterArtist
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. Justice League
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (December 8-10)
It was the quiet before the Force this weekend as Coco remained #1 for the third weekend in a row with $18.4 million, right on pace with my $18.3 million forecast. The Pixar effort has amassed $135 million total.
Justice League was second with $9.6 million (a bit above my $8.2 million prediction) as it’s earned $212 million overall.
Wonder placed third with $8.4 million (I said $7.6 million) as it crossed the century mark at $100 million.
The Disaster Artist received a nice expansion with a fourth place showing at $6.3 million, ahead of my $4.2 million projection.
Thor: Ragnarok rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I said $6.5 million) as it blew past the triple century mark at $301 million.
Finally, the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones comedy Just Getting Started sputtered in 10th place with just $3.2 million – not matching my generous $5.2 million prediction.
Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions. There’s been a host of precursor activity in the past week with the biggest coming this morning as the Golden Globe nominations were announced.
The verdict? The five nominated Best Drama contenders are all very likely Oscar competitors – Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name. In the Comedy category, both Lady Bird and Get Out got in as expected.
Speaking of Get Out, this week marks its first inclusion in my estimated nine contenders. In fact, it vaults four spots up to #7. Something had to come out and it was Darkest Hour, whose luster seems to be fading.
Another Globe surprise: the strong showing for All the Money in the World. Reviews have yet to come, but it was nominated for Director (Ridley Scott), Actress in Drama (Michelle Williams), and Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer, who famously took over the role from the embattled Kevin Spacey). All three debut on the lower rung on my predictions.
In other developments:
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is in for Supporting Actor over Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
Two changes in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) in over Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
In the Screenplay races, Wonder is in for Adapted over Wonderstruck while in the crowded Original Screenplay category, The Shape of Water is back in over Phantom Thread
Read on!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 11)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
11. Mudbound (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Disaster Artist
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, Good Time
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
5. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 6)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 9)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 10)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Victoria and Abdul
First, They Killed My Father
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 5)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
8. Despicable Me 3 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Boss Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ferdinand
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
In this Corner of the World
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 2)
2. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
3. The Square (PR: 7)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. Loveless (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. In the Fade (PR: 4)
8. The Insult (PR: 5)
9. Thelma (PR: 9)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 5)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
4. Long Strange Trip (PR: 7)
5. Strong Island (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: Not Ranked)
7. One of Us (PR: 9)
8. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cries from Syria
Icarus
Risk
Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 7)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Wonder (PR: 9)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. It (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. Detroit (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 8)
8. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)
9. Detroit (PR: 5)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 7)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
“The Promise” from The Promise
And that break down for the following number of nominations for each picture:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Post
6 Nominations
Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Wonder, Wonderstruck, Baby Driver, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, BPM (Beats Per Minute), The Square, First, They Killed My Father, Loveless, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, Strong Island
Greta Gerwig’s LadyBird is an authentic coming of age tale with a genuine sense of time and place. Sporting superior performances down the line, it also announces actress Gerwig as a director and writer to watch.
The time is 2002 and the place is Sacramento. Christine (Saoirse Ronan) is a senior at Catholic high school who goes by the self named moniker of Lady Bird. She wishes to be anywhere but California’s capital city, yearning to attend college on the East Coast. Her relationship with mom Marion (Laurie Metcalf) is complicated and strained as many tend to be during that tenure. Dad (Tracy Letts) is more of the softie, but also dealing with his own issues of unemployment and unhappiness.
In addition to her familial issues, we see Lady Bird in two romantic relationships. The first is with Danny (Lucas Hedges), the theatrical guy who she performs alongside in the embarrassingly accurate portrayal of a high school play. And there’s Kyle (Timothee Chalamet), the brooding musician who rallies against the establishment and believes he’s far more profound than he likely is. We also see her friendships with the key one being Julie (Beanie Feldstein), her kindly and insecure bestie.
Gerwig grew up in Sacramento and attended Catholic school. While she’s said LadyBird is just semi autobiographical, it sure feels like she knows these people and their situations very well. This applies to the main players and the smaller ones, including Lois Smith’s helpful nun and Stephen McKinley Henderson’s drama teacher.
We’ve seen many a film about dealing with adolescence. Like TheEdgeofSeventeen last year, Bird manages to be a genre highlight with its honesty and earned laughs and emotional resonance. The central relationship is the mother/daughter dynamic. It’s written well and much credit goes to Ronan and Metcalf for their terrific inhabitations of them.
LadyBird also touches on class (the family is constantly trying to make ends meet), sexuality, and feelings of where one belongs. Ronan’s appealing creation goes through life believing there’s no place other than home that she wants to be. Gerwig knows the home lovingly detailed here. She knows that the young woman growing up before us will soon recognize its significance to her and how it’s shaped her. When the credits roll, you can imagine Lady Bird writing about it someday. And that it’ll turn out to be quite appealing.
A mashup of ghost story, exploration of grief, and psychological thriller, Olivier Assayas’s PersonalShopper ultimately achieves the word that doubles as its overall theme. It’s haunting and features a showcase performance for Kristen Stewart, who inhabits every nearly every frame of this experience.
She plays Maureen, who spends her hours picking up designer clothing and jewelry in Paris and other locales for her famous boss Kyra (Nora von Waldstätten), a royal pain in the rear who seems to be famous for just being famous. Maureen doesn’t like her occupation, but she’s also occupied by another storyline that makes her stay. Her twin brother Lewis has recently died from a heart defect that she shares. Brother Lewis was a medium and she fancies herself as somewhat of one too. Maureen stays in his expansive old house as she waits for a sign from him that he promised would materialize.
There is supernatural activity, but it’s not exactly what Maureen anticipates. And just when you think Shopper might go full ghost tale, it switches into something else. Our central character begins receiving mysterious texts from an unknown caller that are flirty, threatening, and exhilarating to her. It provides Maureen with a bizarrely exciting way to think of something other than her miserable job and grief over Lewis.
An entire middle section of PersonalShopper is solely focused on these texts. I didn’t know until now that such activity could be as thrilling as it is here. Those three little dots cause Maureen and the audience to go through a range of emotions as we await this person’s (or is it a ghost?) next move.
Shopper is mostly unpredictable as it shifts genres with little warning. The thriller aspect contains some elements you may see coming as far as certain character’s motivations, but it’s always followed by the unexpected. The ending leaves room for interpretation and I found myself happily going through its possibilities in my head.
The picture wouldn’t succeed without Stewart’s fine performance. She has to carry it considering her constant screentime. If an actor can convincingly convey an array of feelings in a brief period of time when her primary acting partner is an iPhone, that’s good work. And PersonalShopper is stylish, spooky, and sexy.
Daniel Day-Lewis could be the only performer other than Meryl Streep whose automatic participation in a project warrants Oscar buzz. It’s not hard to figure out why. He’s the only male to win three Best Actor awards – for 1989’s My Left Foot, 2007’s There Will Be Blood, and 2012’s Lincoln.
Therefore, it was no surprise that his latest picture Phantom Thread garnered immediate awards chatter. The dramatic thriller in which he plays an obsessive London designer in the 1950s reunites the actor with his Blood director Paul Thomas Anderson. Reviews are now out prior to its end of year release and they suggest Day-Lewis should easily nab yet another nomination for what he claims is his last acting role. Winning his fourth statue could be another story.
The front-runner appears to be Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour, even though Mr. Oldman curiously has been left out of many precursor awards. That could certainly change, however. As I see it, Day-Lewis is right behind him.
When it comes to the picture itself, that’s a bit more unclear. Thread stands at a solid 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and some reviews have praised it as one of the year’s finest. Others have been more mixed. I have had the film just getting in and just being outside of my predicted nine features to be nominated. At press time, I consider Thread, Darkest Hour, and Mudbound to be strong possibilities for inclusion, but certainly not automatic.
Thread‘s other performances include Vicky Krieps, who will be campaigned for in Lead Actress. That category appears too crowded for her to get in. In Supporting Actress, the possibility of Lesley Manville having her name called is more likely, but also not assured.
Writer/director Anderson probably won’t get in for Director, though his Original Screenplay has already won some precursors. Yet there’s no guarantee there because that particular race is also jam-packed.
Down the line, Thread appears to be a shoo-in for Costume Design (it’ll probably win) and the acclaimed Original Score. Production Design and Makeup and Hairstyling nominations are also feasible.
Darren Aronofsky’s mother! may leave you woozy, bewildered, and exhilarated and sometimes all within the same minute. It’s a film that many will despise for taking its Hollywood stars down this rabbit hole of Biblical allegories and celebrity culture mockery. Yet I’ll be damned if it wasn’t an experience to often behold, albeit not on the level as some of the director’s best works.
mother is Jennifer Lawrence, who lives in a remote sprawling home with her older husband who is known as Him (Javier Bardem). He’s a famous and acclaimed poet suffering from an acute case of writer’s block. She fills her days renovating their dwelling which we learned recently burned to the ground.
Their quiet existence is interrupted when a stranger known as man (Ed Harris) shows up at their door, claiming he thought the house was a bed and breakfast. mother’s natural and understandable instinct is to send him on his way. Him curiously invites him to stay. Shortly after, his wife credited as woman (Michelle Pfeiffer) arrives. She’s a prying firecracker who rubs mother the wrong away while her husband’s health issues come to light. Their two sons join the joyless party as well and that’s when some tragic results occur. If you’ve noted I’m not saying the names of the characters, it’s for a reason. They don’t have them.
It’s a bit of a chore to discuss mother! without venturing into major spoiler territory. I’ll say this – their family drama has an ending. When Him and mother finally get the place to themselves again, she becomes pregnant and we flash forward to her due date approaching. This is when more people turn up. Lots of them.
What transpires after gives us multiple instances of WTF moments that also showcase Aronofsky’s remarkable visual style behind the camera. He’s a filmmaker unafraid to tackle religious themes (Noah was his previous effort) and mother! certainly bludgeons us with them. It also has plenty to say about fame and those who follow famous people, well, religiously.
By the time Him and mother’s “houseguests” number on the scale of innumerable, I found myself staring at the screen in disbelief at some of what’s onscreen. Part of this may be because a major studio clearly let their writer/director do whatever he wanted here. Another reason is Aronofsky’s technical skill at shooting what occurs within the home’s walls.
Lawrence often represents the audience here. She’s as confused as we are with her husband’s eagerness to welcome others in. In a typical horror flick (especially those of the haunted house variety), you’d be screaming for her to just get the hell out. You may do that here, but credit Aronofsky for going out of his way to explain why she doesn’t.
BlackSwan, which stands at the director’s best along with RequiemforaDream, shares certain themes. A drive for artistic perfection no matter the cost is a trait shared by Natalie Portman in her Oscar winning role and the character of Him. It takes us to even darker places here, but it didn’t leave me as satisfied as Swan. That one got Aronofsky awfully close to cinematic perfection. mother! doesn’t leave that kind of impression overall, but its scenes of expertly made depravity should leave his fans enthralled while it’s happening.
Next Friday, the makers of the animated Ferdinand hope to siphon some youngsters and their parents away from Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The 20th Century Fox title (which happens to be the former studio of Luke Skywalker and company) is based on the 1936 children’s novel The Story of Ferdinand, which tells the tale of a kindly bull. John Cena provides the voice of said bull with Kate McKinnon, Anthony Anderson, Bobby Cannavale, Gina Rodriguez, and Peyton Manning also lending their sounds. Carlos Saldanha, who made some of the Ice Age and Rio features, directs.
Competition is significant. Many kids should be preoccupied with Disney’s franchise juggernaut that opens the same day. And there’s also Coco, which should still be pulling in some coin in weekend #4.
That said, Fox employed a similar strategy two years ago when Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip opened directly opposite Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That gamble resulted in an OK $14.2 million debut yet it experienced small declines over the following holiday weekends.
Ferdinand has the benefit of not being at the tail end of a waning franchise, as Chipmunks was. That might cause it to make a bit more out of the gate and probably hold better in future frames. I’ll go high teens for its start.
Ferdinand opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
For my Star Wars: The Last Jedi prediction, click here:
The three major players involved have a combined 32 Oscar nominations and 7 wins. It’s a historical drama with relevance to current events. And it’s got a plum December release date for Academy voters.
Since the announcement of the project, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has rightly been pegged as an Oscar hopeful. Today its review embargo lifted so let’s discuss its chances, shall we? The pic tells the story of journalists exposing government secrets during the Vietnam War and casts Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Kate Graham and Tom Hanks as the paper’s editor Ben Bradlee.
Just last week, The Post won the National Board of Review’s Best Picture prize, along with Streep and Hanks in the lead acting categories. That’s a good sign of things to come for its Oscar chances. That said, critical reaction today is not completely over the moon. While some reviews have been quite strong, its Rotten Tomatoes score currently stands at 73% – decent, but far from the standings of other likely competitors.
Yet its inclusion in Best Picture looks almost assured. Spielberg also could well nab his 8th nomination as Best Director (he’s won twice). Streep looks safe to get her 21st (!) nod in Actress (she’s been victorious thrice). Hanks has a nice shot to get his 6th recognition (having won twice), though it’s a bit less safe. At press time, Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) appear to be locks in Actor. Hanks, Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), and Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) appear to be vying for the other three slots and someone has to be left out (we also wait for reaction to Hugh Jackman’s work in The Greatest Showman).
The Post could also contend in Original Screenplay, but that’s a packed category as well and its inclusion isn’t guaranteed. Other races where it could play: Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, and Original Score.
Bottom line: A Best Picture and Streep nomination are looking good, while some of the others are a bit more questionable. However, due its subject matter, I’m thinking The Post walks away with at least a handful of nominations.
The cinematic event of 2017 invades theaters next Friday when StarWars: TheLastJedi debuts. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise arrives 40 years after the original changed the landscape of the moviegoing world. In more recent times, it is of course the sequel to 2015’s TheForceAwakens, which broke every box office record in its path. It had the biggest opening of all time and is the highest grossing picture of all time (not adjusted for inflation).
What J.J. Abrams started two December’s ago is continued here with Rian Johnson handling directorial duties (Abrams will be back for episode IX). Returnees from Awakens include Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Adam Driver, Andy Serkis, Anthony Daniels, Lupita Nyong’o, and Domhnall Gleeson. Of course, there’s also Mark Hamill back as Luke Skywalker and with considerably more screen time and Carrie Fisher as Princess Leia in her final performance. Familiar faces entering the StarWars universe for the first time include Benicio del Toro, Laura Dern, and Kelly Marie Tran.
TheForceAwakens obliterated the all-time opening weekend to the tune of $247 million with a $936 million eventual domestic haul. Anticipation for the follow-up is feverish. That said, Jedi is not expected to top its predecessor out of the gate. A more serious question is whether or not it will manage the second biggest stateside premiere in history.
First things first : it should not have trouble nabbing the 2017 record by sailing past another Disney title, BeautyandtheBeast at $174 million. And it will absolutely be the runner-up franchise opening, which currently is last year’s spin-off RogueOne: AStarWarsStory at $155 million.
In order to achieve the #2 debut, it will need to top the $208 million earned by JurassicWorld in 2015. I am predicting it will manage to get there with about $10 million to spare as it sets up for a long run over the holidays.
StarWars: TheLastJedi opening weekend prediction: $219.7 million
The second weekend of December at the box office may look similar to this past one with Pixar’s Coco atop the charts for the third time. Unlike this previous frame, there are some newcomers as the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones geriatric comedy Just Getting Started debuts and James Franco’s critically heralded The Disaster Artist greatly expands its theater count. You can peruse my Just Getting Started detailed prediction here:
As I see it, Just Getting Started may be lucky to eek out a fifth place showing. The Disaster Artist could be a wild card, but if its estimated 800 screen expansion stands, I’ll put it at $4.2 million and outside the top 5. Should its theater count expand, so will my forecast for it.
All in all, it’s a rather quiet weekend. However, that won’t last long as Star Wars: The Last Jedi is on deck next weekend.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Coco
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)
2. Justice League
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Thor: Ragnarok
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. Just Getting Started
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (December 1-3)
Coco ruled the top spot again with $27.5 million, a bit ahead of my $25.2 million projection. The Pixar pic has taken in $110 million since its Thanksgiving release.
Justice League was second once again at $16.6 million (in line with my $16.8 million prediction) for a total of $197 million.
Wonder took third with $12.1 million (a bit below my $14.4 million calculation) for $87 million overall.
Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $9.8 million, topping my $7.7 million estimate for $291 million thus far.
Daddy’s Home 2 was fifth with $7.5 million (I was close at $7.1 million) for an $82 million overall gross.
Murder on the Orient Express was sixth with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and it’s made $84 million.
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back Monday with full box office predictions for the following weekend and tomorrow I will post my detailed Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening weekend estimate!
