Blogger’s Note (09/16): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate down from $6.4 million to $4.5M
Open Road Films is hoping that moviegoers stop, drop everything and help open up Copshop to solid numbers when it debuts September 17th. The action thriller from Joe Carnahan is headlined by Gerard Butler. Costars include Frank Grillo and Alexis Louder.
The pic will essentially rely solely on Butler’s star power. He’s often found his niche in the genre. This includes the trilogy where something (be it Olympus, London or Angel) has fallen. There were also low to mid teens starts for Den of Thieves and Geostorm. Butler’s recent Greenland did well on VOD services. On the other hand, 2018’s Hunter Killer only achieved $6.6 million out of the gate.
Butler has shown the ability to get rather generic seeming titles to decent debuts. Copshop hitting double digits wouldn’t be a huge surprise, but I’m thinking a debut more in the Hunter Killer range is the right call.
In the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas: I was way off! I’m speaking of the marvelous performance of Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which smashed the Labor Day weekend all-time record. We’ll get to that in a second. The major release this weekend is James Wan’s latest horror offering Malignant. My detailed prediction post on it can be found here:
There’s arguably been an over saturation in the market lately for scary pics. Malignant doesn’t seem to have much heat, but I have to give the reminder that this genre often over performs. I’ll still go with under $10 million and that would be good for second place.
Back to Shang-Chi. The acclaimed 25th MCU entry claimed the second highest COVID era debut (barely behind the other Marvel premiere from 2021 – Black Widow). Scarlett Johansson’s stand-alone title fell a steep 68% in its sophomore frame. I don’t foresee that occurring with Shang-Chi. With an A Cinemascore grade and it not being available on Disney Plus, a mid 50s dip seems more likely as it could foreseeably be #1 for the entire month of September.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
2. Malignant
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
3. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Candyman
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Jungle Cruise
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (September 3-6)
Mark it down as one of my incorrect forecasts ever. I thought the challenges facing Shang-Chi (COVID and the fact that big movies don’t really come out at this time of year) meant a $58.9 million four-day gross. Whoops. Try $94.6 million! Its $75 million traditional three-day take, as mentioned, is just after the $80 million that Widow made. Simply put, this is another testament that theatrical only can still be a moneymaking venture and that’s music to industry ears. To put it in perspective, the previous Labor Day record was 2007’s Halloween at $30 million. Rings tripled that and then some.
On the flip side, I was a little too generous to the holdovers. Candyman earned $12.5 million in its sophomore frame (a bit under my $13.4 million projection). The horror sequel/reboot, after its better than expected start, is up to $41 million.
Free Guy was third with $11.2 million (I said $14.2 million) and it’s made $94 million as it hurls towards the century mark.
PAW Patrol: The Movie sat in the four spot with $5.3 million compared to my $6.7 million prediction. Tally is $31 million.
Rounding out the top five was Jungle Cruise with $5.1 million. Once again, I went with more at $6.9 million. It has sailed off with $106 million.
Where to even begin? It’s been 11 days since I updated my Oscar predictions (a longer break than normal) but there’s good reason. A lot has transpired since then. That would be the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals where numerous contenders have been unveiled.
That means there are significant changes in all of the 8 major races that I’m currently forecasting. Let us count the ways:
Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog was certainly one of the most awaited arrivals. Before Venice, I had it placed #1 in Picture, Director, and Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch). The reviews do not automatically indicate it will win the prize. However, they were enough raves that I have not moved it out of the top spot in Picture and Director. Yet there is a new #1 in Actor…
That would be Will Smith in King Richard. While Cumberbatch only slips to #2, the reaction to Smith’s work has me thinking a narrative could develop where he sweeps the season.
Richard also moves into the top ten in my Best Picture rankings. So does Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, another major story of the past few days. I didn’t have the black and white period drama getting any nods a week and a half ago. It’s now listed in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), and Original Screenplay. There is a question with how the studio will figure out placement for its ensemble. I currently have Caitriona Balfe and Jamie Dornan as possibilities in the lead derbies with both falling short.
The two newcomers in Best Picture takes out West Side Story and The Hand of God. Branagh’s rise in Director removes Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth).
In Actress, the festival praise for Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) has me thinking she’s in at this juncture. Falling off the top five: Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth. I nearly put McDormand in Supporting Actress and I wouldn’t be surprised if she contends there instead.
Another development in Actress is the vaulting of Kristen Stewart (Spencer) to the #1 slot over Lady Gaga (House of Gucci). The Venice love indicates she’s the strong frontrunner to win gold.
Peter Dinklage’s title role as Cyrano makes the top five in Actor to the detriment of Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up).
Judi Dench’s inclusion in Belfast for Supporting Actress has Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans) on the outside looking in. I desperately wanted to put Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) in the five and wouldn’t be surprised if she makes it in soon. I just couldn’t decide who to take out.
There are two changes in Supporting Actor. The Power of the Dog buzz provided a bit of a shocker. Kodi Smit-McPhee appears to hold a better chance at getting in over Jesse Plemons (who falls out of the mix). Also, the addition of Ciaran Hinds removes Corey Hawkins (The Tragedy of Macbeth). For those keeping score, that’s two Supporting Actor hopefuls in the five that weren’t even ranked 11 days ago.
In Original Screenplay, it’s Belfast and Spencer in and The French Dispatch (whose fortunes are falling in my opinion) and The Hand of God out. In Adapted Screenplay, I have put CODA back in (sorry to The Humans… which we’ll know more about when it debuts in days up in Toronto).
Whew. Got all that? You can peruse all the movement below. And you can bet that I’ll be posting about all the fresh updates from Toronto. Until then…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
4. Belfast (PR: 14)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
6. Dune (PR: 7)
7. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. King Richard (PR: 21)
10. CODA (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. West Side Story (PR: 8)
12. Mass (PR: 13)
13. Spencer (PR: 17)
14. The Humans (PR: 11)
15. A Hero (PR: 15)
16. Flee (PR: 16)
17. The Hand of God (PR: 10)
18. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
20. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 19)
21. The Last Duel (PR: 20)
22. Being the Ricardos (PR: 24)
23. Parallel Mothers (PR: 22)
24. Passing (PR: 23)
25. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Last Night in Soho
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 15)
10. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
11. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 10)
12. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 14)
14. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 13)
15. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 4)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 14)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 7)
9. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8)
11. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12)
13. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10)
14. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
15. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Halle Berry, Bruised
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 14)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6)
8. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8)
11. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 11)
13. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 10)
14. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
15. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Steven Yeun, The Humans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 11)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 3)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5)
7. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 15)
8. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
9. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
11. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 8)
12. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7)
13. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 13)
14. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 12)
15. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
Two years ago, the film festival circuit paved the road for Joaquin Phoenix’s Oscar-winning triumph in Joker. In 2021, the actor headlines his first post Joker role and it showcases the softer side of Phoenix.
C’Mon C’Mon is a black and white drama from writer/director Mike Mills. He’s no stranger to awards attention. In 2011, he guided Christopher Plummer to a Best Supporting Actor victory. 2016’s 20th Century Women nabbed him a Best Original Screenplay nod.
I’ve yet to see a negative review for C’Mon from Telluride or Venice, but I’m also skeptical it has the goods for Picture consideration. Casting Phoenix as a radio DJ put in charge of caring for his young nephew (Woody Norman, garnering solid notices), its best chances are with him and the script.
Best Actor probably has two tickets punched already: Will Smith in King Richard and Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog. Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) also put himself in contention over the weekend. There’s a whole lot of performances left to be screened that could play: Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Adam Driver (House of Gucci), Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley), and Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) among them. I currently should have Phoenix on the outside looking in when I update my estimates tomorrow, but he could absolutely rise. Same goes for the screenplay. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
The Telluride Film Festival unveiled Joe Wright’s musical version of the nearly 125-year-old play Cyrano de Bergerac with Games of Thrones Emmy winner Peter Dinklage in the title role. The director is no stranger to awards attention as both Atonement and Darkest Hour nabbed Best Picture nods.
Early critical reaction for Cyrano in Colorado has thus far yielded an 83% Rotten Tomatoes. Much of the praise is devoted to Dinklage, who has likely put himself in position for his first Best Actor recognition. I doubt the same holds true for his costars including Haley Bennett, Kelvin Harrison Jr., and Ben Mendelsohn. If Dinklage makes final cut, he will follow Jose Ferrer (who Cyrano take won lead in 1950) and Gerard Depardieu (whose 1990 version garnered him a nod).
Dinklage’s wife Erica Schmidt serves as screenwriter. Adapted Screenplay is a possibility, but initial reaction tells me this is probably the Dinklage show with Production Design and Cinematography possible as well. My Oscar Prediction posts for the film of 2021 will continue…
Sara Colangelo’s Worth tells the true story of a man tasked with the impossible – assigning a price tag to the thousands of individuals who perished on 09/11. That’s Ken Feinberg (Michael Keaton), an expert numbers cruncher. He’s a former Chief of Staff to Senator Ted Kennedy, but his own political skills are lacking. Feinberg approaches the assignment of creating the Victims Compensation Fund with a lawyerly precision that doesn’t match the emotional toll and anger of its survivors. That’s until he begins to listen.
In the wake of that horrific Tuesday, the Congress passed the measure which allows Feinberg to get to work. The kicker is that 80% of respondents must agree to sign up and therefore waive the ability to sue the airlines and they must do so within two years. That’s a tall order as Feinberg and his team, including Amy Ryan’s second in command, pore through each case. How much should the family of the cleaning crew at the World Trade Center be paid as compared to the CEO’s widow in the corner office? Can there ever be a satisfactory formula for an unprecedented situation?
The screenplay from Max Borenstein gives us specific case files to ponder. There’s the wife (Laura Benanti) of a firefighter who had a secret family. The long-time partner of a man whose parents won’t acknowledge their relationship (therefore cutting him out as a beneficiary). And there’s the widowed Charles Wolf (Stanley Tucci) and the blog he starts that points out the unfairness and inequities of the Fund. Wolf’s civil interactions with Feinberg (and the fine performances of Keaton and Tucci) provide the film’s most involving dramatic moments. They occasionally punctuate a somewhat repetitive watch.
I got the feeling that a documentary where the actual survivors talked about their own decision making process with the Fund would have been far more worthy of attention. This dramatized version does a commendable job setting up the premise and is so-so at the execution. President Bush phones Feinberg to josh him that no one would want this job. The lawyer must navigate opaque meetings with Attorney General John Ashcroft (Victor Slezak) and airline lobbyists whose bottom line is not to go bankrupt. Yet most of the running time centers on Feinberg’s growing sympathy for those left behind. Each case is important, but the script does little to elevate any of them beyond a different kind of formulaic treatment.
Benedict Cumberbatch is primed to receive his second Best Actor nod (after 2014’s The Imitation Game) for his work in Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog. It screened at Venice this week, but it’s not the only title headlined by the star.
The other is The Electrical Life of Louis Wain where Cumberbatch plays the real life title character of the English artist known for his cat drawings. Will Sharpe directs and the supporting cast includes Claire Foy, Andrea Riseborough, Sharon Rooney, and Toby Jones. It hits theaters in mid October with an Amazon Prime streaming premiere in early November.
Early reviews are mixed. I don’t anticipate this getting any life with awards voters in any category. Bottom line: Cumberbatch should get a tuxedo or two or three ready for next year. And it will be for Dog and not the one about the guy known for cats. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Starting its trek in Venice, the Spanish comedy Official Competition is playing the festival circuit as it awaits inevitable U.S. distribution. From directors Gaston Duprat and Mariano Cohn, Competition stars Antonio Banderas, Penelope Cruz, and Oliver Martinez.
A satire set in the movie business, the pic is generating pretty solid reviews so far. The Rotten Tomatoes, based on a small number at press time, is 100%. Yet the notices aren’t strong enough for me to think this would contend in Picture or International Feature Film.
As for the two leads, Banderas is coming off his first nod two years ago in Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory. Don’t look for him to be a factor in Actor. I do expect Cruz to be a player in Best Actress, but not for this. Her other Venice premiere was Parallel Mothers (directed by Almodovar) and she stands a good shot for it.
Bottom line: Official Competition sounds fun. However, I wouldn’t anticipate it being part of the Academy’s official competition. My Oscar Watch posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
A time travel thriller mixed with horror, Venice fest goers have been highly anticipating Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho. Hitting theaters in late October, this is the auteur’s follow-up to 2017’s Baby Driver. That sleeper hit managed three Oscar nominations in both sound races (when there were two) and Film Editing.
Thomasin McKenzie headlines a cast that includes Anya Taylor-Joy (hot off The Queen’s Gambit), Matt Smith, Diana Rigg (in her final role), and Terence Stamp. Though the genre doesn’t lend itself often to awards attention, it seems like Wright could eventually break through with an Academy player.
Based on the early buzz, Soho doesn’t seem to be it. While some reviews are gushing, others are mixed to negative and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is currently 71%. I would say the only races where it could contend are Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. It’s also entirely possible the Academy ignores it altogether. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut The Lost Daughter has screened at Venice prior to its theatrical and Netflix release in December. Olivia Colman stars as a college professor who confronts her familial past. The supporting cast includes Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Peter Sarsgaard, and Ed Harris.
In addition to being behind the camera, Gyllenhaal (a 2009 Supporting Actress nominee for Crazy Heart) also adapted the screenplay based on an Elena Ferrante novel. Reviews indicate this is an impressive start to her directing career and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Will the Academy take notice? It certainly may with Colman, who’s unsurprisingly drawing raves. Best Actress should be a crowded field so this is no guarantee. If Colman does manage one of the five spots, it would be her third nod in four years. She won the lead race in 2018 for The Favourite and was nominated in Supporting Actress for The Father last year. Johnson and Buckley are slightly longer shots for supporting and Netflix could concentrate primarily on Colman.
I’m not sure Picture or Director are feasible, but you never know if the streamer goes all in on a campaign. Bottom line: Colman may have the best odds, but The Lost Daughter could find its way into other competitions with the right push. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 