**Blogger’s Note (01/13): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping the 4-day tally for Scream from $29.4 million to $36.4M
**Blogger’s Update (01/11) – GKIDS has announced that Belle will open Friday on approximately 1300 screens. I believe that’s enough that it could post a $3-4 million showing and place fourth. Update is reflected below.
Familiar faces from the quarter century old Scream team are back with some fresh ones as Scream, the fourth sequel to the 1996 original hits multiplexes over the long MLK weekend. The scare fest follow-up looks to dethrone Spider-Man from his four week reign atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My high 20s estimate for Scream should get it to #1. While Omicron concerns could hinder it, Spidey has certainly proved that familiar products can thrive. Horror pics have also proven to be sturdy at the box office in recent times. If anything, I could envision Scream managing to top $30 million but I’ll hedge a bit.
The four-day weekend could mean smallish dips for holdovers as Spider-Man should place second in the low to possibly 20s with Sing 2, The 355, and The King’s Man filling out the high five.
Keep in mind that these projections are for Friday-Monday and this is how I see it:
1. Scream
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $22.7 million
3. Sing 2
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
4. Belle
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. The 355
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (January 7-9)
The web slinger had no trouble staying in first as Spider-Man: No Way Home added $32.6 million to its coffers, a bit ahead of my $29.5 million prediction. The MCU phenomenon is up to $668 million and that places it 6th on the all-time domestic chart.
Sing 2 was once again the runner-up with $11.5 million, in line with my take of $11.9 million. The animated sequel crossed the century mark and stands at $108 million.
Spy thriller The 355 was 2022’s first wide release and, as expected, opened in third with $4.6 million. While nothing to brag about, it debuted in line with expectations and a smidge more than my $3.8 million forecast.
The King’s Man was fourth with $3.2 million compared to my $2.6 million projection. Total is $25 million.
American Underdog rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.1 million) for $18 million overall.
This evening’s Golden Globes ceremony was certainly like no other in recent history. Due to controversies that have fallen upon the Hollywood Foreign Press Association in the past couple of years, the show was not broadcast, not streaming, and no celebrities attended. Reveals of the winners were available via Twitter.
The Globes could still provide a window for what might occur when Oscar nods are out next month. If so, there could be good things coming to the big winners of the evening – West Side Story and The Power of the Dog. They are likely the two that stand the greatest chance to take Best Picture (along with Belfast) and each had key wins tonight. And while Belfast only landed one victory, it was a rather key one.
So how’d I do with my predictions? 9 for 14. That’s about how I thought I’d perform to be honest as the HFPA is a little unpredictable.
Let’s start with what I got right:
West Side Story won Best Musical/Comedy and Ariana DeBose took Supporting Actress.
Kodi-Smit McPhee is Best Supporting Actor for The Power of the Dog. For DeBose and McPhee, it could be the start of healthy runs throughout the season.
Encanto is Best Animated Feature and Drive My Car took Foreign Film. I have both in my #1 positions for the Oscars.
Dune received Best Score and “No Time to Die” won Original Song. At the Academy Awards, I expect Billie vs. Beyonce (for “Be Alive” from King Richard). In round 1, Billie is victorious.
Will Smith’s turn as King Richard is your Best Actor (Drama) while Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick… Boom! is Best Actor (Musical/Comedy). Both were widely expected and the two are anticipated to easily make the cut at the Oscars.
Where I went wrong:
My one true upset pick was Emma Stone in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) for Cruella. I went with the upset because I couldn’t choose between Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) or Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). Zegler took the prize.
I did have Pizza being delivered a Screenplay win, but that went to Belfast. I thought that early award might forecast its win for Best Drama (I picked it) but…
The Power of the Dog won and that’s a pretty significant boost for its Oscar chances. Its maker Jane Campion also was named Best Director and I went with Steven Spielberg for West Side Story.
And perhaps the only true surprise of the evening was Best Actress (Drama) though I did make a point to say that any could win. I predicted Kristen Stewart in Spencer, but Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos was awarded. This points to a real competition at the other shows to come.
Quick take – Dog and Story had solid nights. Smith, DeBose, and Smit-McPhee may have solidified their frontrunner statuses. And Best Actress might be wide open.
The 28th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards airs February 27th and the nominations will be unveiled this Wednesday (01/12). It’s often a more reliable precursor to the acting nominations for the Oscars. Therefore it’s time to make my picks on who and what will grab the nods later this week.
As a reminder, the big prize here is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. That often favors films with a larger cast though a potent mix with four or more actors can make the cut. Similar to Golden Globe estimates and my forthcoming final Oscar picks, I’ll give you my five contenders along with a runner-up and second alternate with a bit of commentary.
Here we go!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: King Richard
Commentary – The three Best Picture frontrunners for the Academy (Belfast, Power, West Side) all seem like pretty safe bets here. If anything is vulnerable, it might be the quartet from Power considering it has a smaller troupe of performers. There’s also some chatter that West Side could be vulnerable because it sent out late screeners for voters, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. For the other two spots, I’m favoring Don’t Look Up‘s large and sprawling cast should make it in. I’ll go with the CODA clan as well though I could easily see Licorice Pizza, King Richard or The Harder They Fall making the cut.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Commentary – The last four years has seen a 4/5 match with SAG and Oscar when it comes to leading ladies. My current Academy lineup is the same as here (though that’s certainly subject to change). Quite honestly, I tried to make room for Cruz but couldn’t land on who to take out. The most vulnerable could be Chastain, Gaga, or Kidman. I also wouldn’t completely discount Jennifer Hudson for Respect and would have her ranked above Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) for SAG.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Nicolas Cage, Pig
Commentary – Just as I am with the Oscars – feeling confident about Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington. It’s that fifth slot that’s tricky. I’ll give Dinklage the ever so slight nod over Leo (who’s currently my fifth with the Academy). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Cage sneak in.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA
Second Alternate: Ann Dowd, Mass
Commentary – I’m banking on the Guild not passing up a chance to put the legendary Moreno in with her costar DeBose. Speaking of Passing, you’ll notice Ruth Negga (my fifth Oscar player at the moment) isn’t here but she could certainly surface.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Nominees:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Commentary – Bit of a guessing game as Supporting Actor is a head scratcher for 2021 pics. Going with both Belfast boys and the love continuing for West Side Story with Faist. As for the winner, that could be between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee (I also wouldn’t discount his costar Jesse Plemons getting in). If Leto misses here (and with the Globes omission), his Oscar chances probably disappear.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Black Widow
Dune
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Runner-Up: The Matrix Resurrections
Second Alternate: The Harder They Fall
This means I’m projecting 4 nominations apiece for Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. I’ll have a recap up Wednesday with my reaction and how well (or not) I did!
P.S. – Golden Globe reactions coming up this evening…
My first 2022 predictions for the 2021 Oscar season comes on the eve of the Golden Globes and four days before SAG announces their nominees. By my next update, we will have those useful bits of information to consider.
If you missed my predictions for the Globe winners, you can find them here:
I’ll have my forecast for the SAG nominees up on the blog tomorrow so stay tuned! In the meantime, there are numerous changes to point out:
I keep going back and forth on whether momentum for Japan’s Drive My Car is still revving up or perhaps stalling. I’ve taken it out of my ten predicted BP contenders and put The Tragedy of Macbeth back in.
While I continue to struggle with all 5 Best Actress hopefuls representing non BP nominees, I’m back to that lineup. That means Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) returns with Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) falling out.
For many weeks, I’ve held to same Best Actor five. That changes today with Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) joining the quintet and Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) dropping.
In Supporting Actor, both Belfast boys are in so Jamie Dornan is back in the mix. That takes out Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog).
Drive My Car is also out for Adapted Screenplay with Dune in.
The Beyonce vs. Billie battle in Original Song switches places. Beyonce’s track “Be Alive” from King Richard has been my #1 for months, but I’ve now vaulted Billie’s “No Time to Die” to top position.
You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for a Globes recap and SAG prognostications.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (+2)
8. CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Drive My Car (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (E)
14. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. King Richard (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Sunny Maad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lamb
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Rescue (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ascension (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. President (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 8) (-1)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cyrano (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Last Night in Soho
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (-1)
7. West Side Story (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Green Knight
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spencer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cruella (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Free Guy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. No Time to Die (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
And that boils down to these pictures garnering these numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Ascension, Drive My Car, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
I’m used to saying the Golden Globes will air Sunday evening, but that’s not the case in 2022. The ceremony honoring the best of 2021 will come to us in an as yet undetermined format. This is due to various controversies brought to light recently about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and NBC’s decision not to broadcast the show.
However, the show will go on (possibly streaming on your computer) and the Globes still serve as a barometer for what Oscar voters could be thinking in coming weeks. That said, the HFPA is certainly capable of providing surprises. Just last year, Andra Day’s victory in Best Actress (Drama) for The United States vs. Billie Holiday and Jodie Foster as Supporting Actress for The Mauritanian were legitimate upsets.
As a reminder, the Globes split their picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy though not with the supporting derbies or screenplay. I will be making my picks along with runner-up selections while also providing numbers showing the correlation of Globe winners to Oscar recipients in each respective category for the last ten years.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 4 out of last 10 years
Commentary: The HFPA competition for the drama prize is the first major showdown between Oscar frontrunners Belfast and The Power of the Dog. With the international flavor and feel good vibes of the former, I’m picking Kenneth Branagh’s coming-of-age drama to come out ahead. If there’s a shocker in store, it could be CODA (which seems to picking up more steam on a weekly basis).
I will admit that picking Belfast to win Drama and take no other awards (as you’ll see below) feels strange. There is recent precedent, however, with 2016’s Moonlight.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Predicted Winner: West Side Story
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner ratio: 2 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: I wouldn’t count out Licorice Pizza but its miss in Best Director could be telling. West Side Story should be right up HFPA’s alley and its the only feature where its maker made the director cut.
Best Director
Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This is a tough one. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nod for The Lost Daughter was unexpected and she’s the only contender that I feel stands no chance of winning. Branagh could certainly ride a wave of Belfast love. Villeneuve could be honored for the technical mastery of Dune. And Campion is the hopeful picking up the bulk of critics prizes. Yet I’ll go with the HFPA honoring the legendary Spielberg.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actress)
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Predicted Winner: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This is the first test to see whether Stewart really is the frontrunner that could sweep through the season. I’m skeptical and I honestly believe any of the performers could take this (I struggled to pick the runner-up as it could be any of them). I wouldn’t put money on it, but I’ll say Stewart manages to nab the crown.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actor)
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: As you can see, this is a rather reliable predictor of where the Academy could go. For 2021’s features, the ceremonies should boil down to Smith v. Cumberbatch. I don’t think HFPA will pass up a chance to honor one of cinema’s most durable draws for the last 25 years in one of his most acclaimed performances.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actress)
Nominees:
Marion Cotillard, Annette
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Cruella
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Cruella
Runner-Up: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 3 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: There was an upset last year when Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) emerged over the favored Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. The West Side love extending to Zegler is probably the smartest pick to make. Alana Haim’s work in Pizza could deliver her a victory and she probably should be listed as the runner-up. Yet if there’s any upset, I could see Stone surprising and there’s almost always one during the Globes. Perhaps against my better judgment, I’m going with it.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actor)
Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
Predicted Winner: Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 1 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Dinklage is a threat though I’ll go with DiCaprio as the runner-up since he’s arguably the biggest star in Hollywood. That said, Garfield (he’s likely #3 in the Oscar contest at the moment) is the most likely winner.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actress)
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Jodie Foster’s win for 2020 came out of nowhere so who really knows? I’ll go with a West Side pick and DeBose. Other than Negga, I could foresee any of these candidates making (theoretical) podium trips.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actor)
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Another tricky one in a race where the Globes and Academy typically match. Assuming the Belfast boys split and Affleck isn’t a factor, this comes down to Smit-McPhee vs. Kotsur. A win for either could propel them to a glorious season ahead. I’m really tempted to go with Kotsur, but I’ll say this marks the best opportunity for HFPA to bestow an honor for Dog. This is a coin flip.
Best Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Licorice Pizza
Runner-Up: Belfast
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 5 out of the last 10 years (counting both Original and Adapted Screenplays at the Oscars)
Commentary: Your guess is as good as mine here. I’m going with a bit of an upset with Pizza, but the smart money is probably on Belfast or Dog. I also wouldn’t count out Aaron Sorkin for Ricardos (he took this category last year for The Trial of the Chicago 7). And Adam McKay could be called up for Don’t Look Up which (despite its mixed reviews) is drawing plenty of ink.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
My Sunny Maad
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted Winner: Encanto
Runner-Up: Flee
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last years
Commentary: The Globes are capable of unexpected picks here (2019’s Missing Link for example). Don’t be surprised if Flee from Iran gets this, but I’ll go with Disney’s likeliest hopeful of its trio of nominees and that’s Encanto.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
A Hero
Parallel Mothers
Predicted Winner: Drive My Car
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Watch out for Mothers to pull off an upset, but this is Drive My Car‘s race to lose. The Japanese drama has established itself as the frontrunner in international competitions at all ceremonies.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Another race that Mothers could unexpectedly take, I also wouldn’t discount Dispatch or Dog. This should be Dune‘s best opportunity to take a prize though.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Here I Am” from Respect
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Predicted Winner: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Be Alive” from King Richard
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This should be the battle of Billie (Eilish) for “Die” vs. Beyonce (it’s just Beyonce) for “Alive” and that should be the dynamic for the Oscars. The HFPA has honored the last two Bond themes for Skyfall and Spectre. I’ll give it a very slight edge.
And there you have it! The Golden Globes will air, err happen, Sunday. I’ll have reaction up on the blog shortly thereafter.
**Blogger’s Note (01/13): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping the 4-day tally for Scream from $29.4 million to $36.4M
The fifth installment of the Scream franchise slashes its way into theaters on January 14th, hoping to bring in a sizable horror fan base. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, makers of V/H/S and Ready or Not, direct as they take reigns of the series from scare master Wes Craven (who helmed the first four and passed away in 2015). Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, David Arquette, Marley Shelton, and Roger L. Jackson (as the iconic voice of Ghostface) reprise roles from previous entries. Newcomers include Melissa Barrera, Mason Gooding, Jenna Ortega, and Jack Quaid.
Nearly a quarter century ago, the low-budget original became a cultural phenomenon and revitalized the genre. Two sequels followed in quick succession in 1997 and 2000 while part 4 hit in 2011. It was a commercial disappointment – taking in only $38 million at the domestic box office (with a $19 million start).
Paramount and Dimension Films are hoping that nostalgia will bring audiences back to the fold. Fright fests, more than any other type of pic in 2021, proved immune to challenges faced in the COVID era in terms of solid openings. The third Conjuring and Candyman each premiered in the low to mid 20s range. Scream will have an extra day of earnings when factoring in the long MLK frame.
January is very desolate in terms of high profile debuts and Scream is by far the biggest one. It marks a major test for theaters as the Omicron variant sweeps across the country. If this fails to perform, don’t be surprised to see delays for upcoming releases. Even with that potential barrier and the underperformance of its predecessor, I envision this managing a mid to possibly late 20s haul when including Monday.
Scream opening weekend prediction: $36.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The original Ghostbusters, lest we forget, was filled with ribald humor coming from SNL vets that were in the prime of their careers. Overloading the reboot/sequel Afterlife with gooey family drama feels, in many ways, as misplaced as the missteps that 2016’s version took or that 1989’s traditional follow-up was a fairly weak retread of the first. This franchise hasn’t succeeded in their attempts to capitalize on what made 1984’s pic special and that extends to this.
It’s not for a lack of trying as the 2021 iteration goes to extreme lengths to get our nostalgia radars working into overdrive. Jason Reitman takes over directorial duties from his father Ivan, who made the 80s blockbusters. There’s not a piece of attire or Twinkie or demonic marshmallow from 1984 that isn’t placed with the clear purpose of inspiring wild cheers. Sometimes you wanna go where everybody knows the name of every nearly four decade old artifact, vehicle or gadget. In this Afterlife, it more often feels forced than welcome.
We shift from the Big Apple to the sleepy town of Summerville, Oklahoma. Egon Spangler, Harold Ramis’s nerdy scientist from the OG ‘Busters, has relocated to a dilapidated farmhouse and cut off contact with his family and former colleagues. His demise in the prologue causes his heirs to inhabit the dusty domicile. This includes down on her luck daughter Callie (Carrie Coon) and her two kids. Since I think it’s now contactually necessary for Stranger Things players to participate in these reboots, Finn Wolfhard is her teenage son Trevor. Mckenna Grace is the real lead as 12-year-old daughter Phoebe, who resembles her granddad in looks and interests. An outcast at school, she bonds with fellow geek Podcast (Logan Kim) and her summer school teacher Mr. Grooberson (Paul Rudd).
Trevor and Phoebe are completely unaware that Egon was a Ghostbuster (we’ll just go with that I suppose). Paranormal activities start revealing his life’s work including Phoebe’s ongoing chess game with an unseen spirit. The iconic car (yay!) is stored on the property. Of course, the late Egon was in Summerville for a reason and it has to do with familiar haunters from ’84 and preventing them from returning.
This all leads to familiar heroic faces eventually turning up (though not with significant screen time). With their limited participation, the question is whether the new and much younger generation of spirit crushers is compelling enough to warrant a feature. I didn’t think so, but there are some positives. Grace’s performance is terrific (while Wolfhard and his budding romance with his bellhop coworker Celeste O’Connor adds little). Rudd’s considerable talents (he takes a liking to Callie) add a bit of fun. The sight of Bill Murray randomly turning up anywhere is good for a smile (though not much more here than reading about how he does so in real life).
However, the tone in general struck me as off. It’s hard not to be touched by its tribute to the late Harold Ramis (a man responsible for so many laughs in landmark comedies of the past). I felt the sentiment because of that and not the absence of Egon. Afterlife seems trapped in the notion that our emotional connections to these characters run deeper than they do. Like many reboots nowadays, the mere presence of something old is meant to provide the requisite entertainment value. It made me feel mostly dispirited.
As long as you feed The Beast and give it enough of what it wants, that might prevent it from harming others. That’s the prevailing message of Scott Cooper’s Antlers and it’s not a particularly fresh one as the foul stenches and stretches of the storyline play out. It attempts to balance body horror and creature feature elements with an abuse allegory and a tale of moral and environmental decay. With an assist from Guillermo del Toro on the production side, the pic ultimately bites off more than it can chew. This is also an issue for the title character terrorizer who leaves half devoured carcasses lying around.
The setting is the desolate Oregon town of Cispus Falls where lines for store front recovery centers appear to outnumber any other facade. In the opening, Frank Weaver (Scott Haze) has taken his youngest son Aiden (Sawyer Jones) his workplace of an abandoned mine shaft turned meth lab. Frank and his buddy leave the youngster waiting in the truck while they break up their bad deeds below. An attack by an unseen animal force begins the carnage that leaves longstanding marks on the Weaver family.
Flash forwarding above ground and weeks later, Aiden’s older brother Lucas (Jeremy T. Thomas) is an outcast who rushes to collect roadkill as his after school activity. Bringing the critters home with him, what lies behind a locked door shows the current condition of dad and Aiden. It’s not for the faint of heart or those who just feasted.
Lucas’s behavior catches the attention of his teacher Julia (Keri Russell). She’s recently moved back from California after two decades and in with her brother Paul (Jesse Plemons), who’s the Sheriff around these parts. The two share a caring but sometimes strained bond in their family home. Their mother passed long ago and their father more recently. Brief flashbacks and more expository dialogue reveal an abusive past. Julia recognizes signs of mistreatment in her pupil while not imagining the extent of it.
I did appreciate much about the atmospheric touches and gorgeous cinematography in Antlers – even if it’s focused on some grisly occurrences. The Weavers fall prey to an ancient Native American evil spirit known as a Wendigo which causes the cursed subjects to become cannibalistic and ravenous. This is mostly explained by the town’s ex-sheriff played by Graham Greene and it’s not a tale that the picture seems preoccupied in mining for material. There is a tone of seriousness that prevents this from ever becoming campy. Perhaps a little of that could have helped.
There’s no faulting the performances as Russell and Plemons commit and Thomas is believable as the malnourished child who must become an adult before he should. The problem lies with committing to too many ideas and giving the short shrift to all of them. There are worse flaws to be had and Antlers never feels like a regurgitation of previous works (though its themes are familiar). Devotees of highbrow horror might be satiated, but I found myself hungering for Cooper, del Toro, and company to pick a plot line and explore it a little more.
2022 should look a lot like the final two weekends of 2021 at the box office with Spider-Man: No Way Home and Sing 2 easily in the top two positions.
There is only one newbie entering the marketplace – the female led spy thriller The 355 with Jessica Chastain, Lupita Nyong’o, and Penelope Cruz. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My $3.8 million estimate doesn’t inspire much confidence in its potency and I’ve got it pegged for a third place showing.
Holdovers Spidey and Sing 2 should maintain their chart rankings with the former in mid 20s to possibly $30 million and the latter still above double digits and perhaps reaching low teens. The King’s Man and American Underdog, meanwhile, should round out the top five with both in the $2-3 million range.
Overall it’s a rather quiet frame as we await Scream hitting next weekend and this is how I see it:
1. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $29.5 million
2. Sing 2
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
3. The 355
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
4. The King’s Man
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
5. American Underdog
Predicted Gross: $2.1 million
Box Office Results (December 31-January 2)
Spider-Man: No Way Home easily closed out 2021 and began 2022 in first place with $56 million, a bit ahead of my $52.5 million forecast. In three weeks, the MCU mega blockbuster is up to $613 million and that’s already good for 10th domestically all-time.
Sing 2 held the runner-up spot again with $20.1 million – in range with my $19.6 million estimate. The animated sequel has taken in $90 million during its two weeks and should join the century club in short order.
The King’s Man jumped from #4 to #3 with $4.5 million (an estimate since 20th Century Studios hasn’t released a final gross). I said $4.5 million (!) and it’s made $19 million in two weeks of action.
Fourth place belonged to American Underdog in its sophomore outing with $3.9 million, not matching my take of $5.7 million. Total is $14 million.
Finally, The Matrix Resurrections plunged a steep 64% in its second weekend with $3.8 million compared to my $4.8 million projection. The fourth entry in the sci-fi saga has downloaded a weak $30 million thus far.
When the director seems to have ambivalent (at best) feelings about returning to their franchise, that emotion might rub off on the audience a bit. And so it is with The Matrix Resurrections, arriving 18 years after parts II and III with Lana Wachowski back (though not with her sister Lilly who co-directed previous installments). An overriding theme is that Wachowski is making part IV because the studio was going to do it regardless. Apparently she’d rather not leave it in the hands of others. The more things change, the more they stay the same in one respect. Our fourth trip into this world, like the second and third, can’t come close to matching the heights of the 1999 original (no matter how many throwback clips we see from it).
A glaring flaw is Resurrections mirrors that of the first sequels. So much after part one about The One centered its drama on Neo’s (Keanu Reeves) powerful connection with Trinity (Carrie-Anne Moss). For the most part, we were told as opposed to shown that development. The 2021 model is dependent on our wistful nostalgic pining of their romance. It’s one that I and I suspect many others just don’t possess.
In The Matrix, we were introduced to a fresh and exciting cinematic universe at the perfect time. As the 20th century drew to a close, questions abounded about machines and technology and their potential to overpower humans and their free will. It was potent in its message back then and (of course) the action was mind blowing and influenced many a 21st century spectacle.
2003’s follow-up The Matrix Reloaded was in many respects a mess, but an often highly entertaining one. Its freeway shootout was a marvel that holds up gloriously today. The first act set in a sweat drenched orgiastic Zion… not so much. The Matrix Revolutions arrived six months after Reloaded and despite some nifty moments, it was a serious letdown critically and financially.
Yet franchises never die in Hollywood so Wachowski seems to be battling her own free will and giving us her next iteration. For those who may have forgot (and it’s easy to forget Revolutions), Neo and Trinity both lost their lives while saving what was left of the human race from machine domination. In Resurrections, Neo’s real life persona Thomas Anderson is indeed alive and living 60 years in the future as a video game programmer. His lauded creation is essentially what we saw in the previous trilogy. His therapy sessions with Neil Patrick Harris’s analyst hints of his recollections and, for that, he’s prescribed blue pills. When Anderson is confronted with his past, it comes from a younger Morpheus (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II) and a new team of rebels led by a white rabbit tattooed Bugs (Jessica Henwick).
It also turns out Trinity is around in the form of Tiffany, now married with kids and without knowledge of her gravity defiant history. The deal cut by the lovebirds in Revolutions still stands albeit on shaky ground. Humans and machines have found a way to coexist but others want war times to resume. The plot, however, really isn’t focused on extinction. Tiffany is the McGuffin – and the drama centers on her chosen pill intake. It seems a tad low-pressure for a series typically concentrated on civilization’s existence.
In addition to a more youthful Morpheus, we also have Jonathan Groff as a boyish Agent Smith. Neither of their characterizations match those of Laurence Fishburne or Hugo Weaving, respectively. The screenplay, in particular, does a disservice to Mateen (a fine actor) and the treatment of Morpheus. So crucial in the trilogy, he’s relegated to an insignificant status in this one. On the flip side, Jada Pinkett Smith returns as General Niobe and she’s aged six decades. The makeup is decent. Her decision making hasn’t improved much when it comes to advising our protagonists.
Wachowski’s self-referential treatment of the material starts off fairly funny and the first hour has its charms. When a holdover from Reloaded and Revolutions appears to spew English and French rantings about our text obsessed and social media culture, it’s moved to eye rolling emoji territory. In Reloaded, that mid-picture car flipping street extravaganza alone arguably made the first sequel worth the price of admission. There’s no such centerpiece in Resurrections that approaches it. Instead we get a follow-up where the filmmaker is struggling to justify its existence and even pontificating through her subjects that it’s not warranted. Maybe she should have left this revolution for someone else to start.
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