Jennifer Lawrence enters new genre territory with No Hard Feelings on June 23rd. The raunchy comedy casts the Oscar winner as a down on her luck Uber driver hired to teach a 19-year-old (Andrew Barth Feldman) the birds and bees. Gene Stupnitsky, who made the 2019 sleeper hit Good Boys, directs. Costars include Matthew Broderick, Laura Benanti, Natalie Morales, Scott MacArthur, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach.
It’s been a minute since Lawrence has graced the big screen. She was in the supporting cast as Mystique for Dark Phoenix four years ago, but you have to go back five years to Red Sparrow since her last headlining multiplex appearance. Her last two features (Don’t Look Up, Causeway) went the streaming route. Audiences are accustomed to seeing her in action flicks and dramas so this is certainly a test.
As I’ve mentioned a lot over the past few years, it’s a challenge for original comedies to break out. Plenty of viewers may simply wait until it’s ready for home consumption. If this had come out at the height of Lawrence’s bankability, I might be offering a different outlook.
Sony Pictures won’t like this comp, but Rough Night with Scarlett Johansson was another example of a popular actress branching out to this type of movie. Debuting in June six years ago, the result was a soft $8 million start. I’ll say this gets over that figure, but not by too much.
No Hard Feelings opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million
My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.
Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.
In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.
One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)
12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)
18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12.Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)
13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)
Droped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Jane Levy, A Little Prayer
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporing Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)
A trio of newcomers hits multiplexes this weekend with the much-publicized DCEU adventure The Flash, Pixar’s Elemental, and horror spoof The Blackening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
There’s little question that The Flash will bolt to #1. The question is with how much. While I don’t see it reaching nine figures, I do believe $80-90 million is within reach. It is worth noting that fresh tracking shows it could fall short of that number so keep an eye on my blog this week to see if I maintain my rosy outlook.
I don’t have a flowery vision for how Elemental will perform. After Pixar experienced a high-profile flop last summer with Lightyear, their latest could find itself in a battle with fellow animated pic Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (in its third frame) for #2. I’ll give Elemental the slight benefit of the doubt, but not by much.
Spider-Verse should only drop a spot because I believe it’ll see around a 50% fall. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts significantly exceeded my projection (more on that below). Yet it could dip in the mid 60s and that would mean a slide from 1st to 4th.
The Little Mermaid should round out the top five with a 40% drop and that brings us to The Blackening. The scary parody is reported to release in only about 1800 venues and that could limit the potential. I’ll say it doesn’t hit $10 million and is in sixth.
And with that, here’s how I envision that top 6:
1. The Flash
Predicted Gross: $83.2 million
2. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
5. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
6. The Blackening
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
Box Office Results (June 9-11)
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts couldn’t match the $100M+ earnings of early franchise entries. However, it did blast past my prediction with $61 million compared to my measly $42.2 million call. That’s on the top end of its anticipated range and, like other Transformers pics, it should perform well overseas. There might just be a little juice left in the series.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had a sturdy hold of 54% in its sophomore weekend with $55.5 million, a bit under my $58.4 million forecast. The acclaimed sequel has amassed $225 million in ten days.
The Little Mermaid was third with $23.1 million (on target with my $22.5 million take) for $229 million in three weeks.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.6 million) for an overall haul of $335 million.
Finally, The Boogeyman held up stronger in weekend #2 that I assumed with $7.1 million. I went lower at $5.8 million. The two-week tally is a so-so $24 million.
Lionsgate would love to see The Blackening post Scary Movie style numbers when it debuts June 16th. That’s probably wishful thinking. The horror parody comes from Tim Story, who directed Barbershop, 2005 and 2007’s Fantastic Four pics, and the two Ride Along action comedies. Grace Byers, Jermaine Fowler, Melvin Gregg, X Mayo, Dewayne Perkins (who co-scripted), Antoinette Robertson, Sinqua Walls, Jay Pharoah, and Yvonne Orji are among the cast.
When this screened at the Toronto Film Festival way back in September, early word-of-mouth was pretty encouraging. That said, comedies in general have failed to cash in over the past several years. Over the Memorial Day weekend, both The Machine and About My Father didn’t break out.
The Blackening could surprise if African-American audiences and horror fans turn out. If they do, an opening of over $10 million could be achievable. Given the genre’s struggles, I’ll put it under. Another limiting factor could be the reported smallish screen count of 1800 venues.
The Blackening opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million
Disney/Pixar hopes the elements are there for a hit when Elemental debuts on June 16th. The 27th feature from the studio comes from director Peter Sohn, who made a rare Pixar disappointment in 2015’s The Good Dinosaur. Voiceover artists include Leah Lewis, Mamoudou Athie, Ronnie del Carmen, Shila Ommi, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Catherine O’Hara, Joe Pera, and Matt Yang King.
Four years ago, Toy Story 4 took in over $400 million domestically. It’s been a rather unimpressive run for the Mouse Factory’s nearly 30-year-old production company since. Onward debuted to $39 million and that figure was likely low since it opened in March of 2020 just as COVID shutdowns were beginning. Soul, Luca, and Turning Red went the Disney Plus route due to the pandemic. Last summer’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a $50 million premiere and $118 million eventual stateside gross (well under expectations).
I don’t see Elemental reversing the downturn. Some youngsters will be preoccupied with The Flash or maybe they’ll go see Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse again. Reviews won’t get audiences to rush out either as the Rotten Tomatoes is 63% (low for Pixar).
Add all that up and I think this will be lucky to get past $35 million.
Elemental opening weekend prediction: $30.6 million
**Blogger’s Update (06/13): I’m revised my prediction down from $90.2 million to $83.2 million**
Warner Bros hopes for the 13th DCEU picture is lucky at the box office as The Flash bolts into multiplexes on June 16th. It’s been a bumpy ride to the big screen between COVID delays and Ezra Miller (playing the title character) and their personal troubles. Andy Muschietti, who made the two It chapters, directs. Michael Keaton and Ben Affleck reprise their roles as Batman with Sasha Calle debuting as Supergirl. Costars include Michael Shannon (reprising his General Zod role from Man of Steel), Ron Livingston, Maribel Verdú, Kiersey Clemons, Antje Traue, and Jeremy Irons. Expect other noteworthy cameos.
The DCEU has had a rough go lately. Their last two titles, Black Adam and Shazam! Fury of the Gods, were significant financial disappointments. James Gunn and Peter Safran were recently tapped to run the struggling franchise. The Flash hopes to right the ship. The first four entries in the series (Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) all grossed $100 million plus in their debut weekends. The next eight movies did not with the second Shazam! only taking in $30 million out of the gate.
Reviews are fairly positive with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. If you subscribe to the all publicity is good publicity notion, the negative ink surrounding its lead shouldn’t hinder its potential (and the studio is keeping Miller off the circuit). While The Flash isn’t as iconic a character as the Caped Crusader, the reemergence of Keaton as that character could draw in viewers for a nostalgia fix (it’s been over 30 years since he’s donned the Batsuit).
A best case scenario is The Flash achieving the second best start of 2023 and topping the $120 million that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse achieved. The worst case result could be not reaching nine figures like those first four superhero tales. That might be the case and it could end up falling outside the top five openings of 2023 (under the $95 million of The Little Mermaid). My forecast puts this on pace with the $93 million that Justice League made back in 2017 (where Miller first fleshed out this character).
The Flash opening weekend prediction: $83.2 million
The twelve pictures that have made up the DC Extended Universe in the past decade has resulted in a grand total of one nomination at the Oscars. That honor belongs to Suicide Squad in 2016 for Makeup and Hairstyling and it won. Other DCEU titles like Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Wonder Woman, Aquaman, and 2021’s The Suicide Squad couldn’t manage Visual Effects or Sound or any other mentions.
Could that change with The Flash? Opening June 16th, the superhero tale finally hits screens after multiples delays and lots of unflattering news about its lead Ezra Miller. On the other hand, audiences could be stoked to see the returns of Ben Affleck and especially Michael Keaton as Batman. Sasha Calle costars as Supergirl with Michael Shannon reprising his role as General Zod from Man of Steel. Andy Muschietti, best known for helming the two It chapters, directs.
The review embargo lapsed today and the result thus far is 73%. That’s fine, but plenty of the write-ups are of the mixed variety. It’s nostalgic overtones are being praised and criticized. I could see this contending for Visual Effects and probably that race only. Yet given the DCEU track record, I wouldn’t want to double down on it making the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts debuts Friday and it marks the seventh entry in the franchise that began in 2007. This has never been a series known for critical acclaim, but reviews have been on the uptick as of late.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for Beasts is 57%. That’s actually tied for second best of the bunch as the first Transformers has the same rating. #1 by far is the 91% achieved by immediate predecessor Bumblebee from 2018. The other four were at 35% or under (2017’s The Last Knight is lowest at 16%).
That said, certain technical aspects were noticed by the Academy for awhile. Part 1 was nominated for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (note that these sound races have since been combined). 2009’s follow-up Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was up for Sound Mixing. 2011’s third adventure Transformers: Dark of the Moon landed the same three mentions as the first. There are no victories among the seven nominations.
However, the next three pics (2014’s Age of Extinction, The Last Knight, Bumblebee) were ignored by voters. And if Bumblebee couldn’t manage a Sound or VE spot, it’s tough to see Beasts rising to the challenge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will attempt to topple Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but that could be a tall order. Beasts is the sole wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The seventh entry in the franchise based on the Hasbro toy line will not have the lowest start of the bunch. That belongs and will continue to belong to Bumblebee which started with $21 million over the holidays in 2018. It may, however, have the second smallest if it fails to exceed the $44 million three-day premiere that Transformers: The Last Knight had in the summer of 2017. I am projecting it will fall under that mark.
That should leave Across the Spider-Verse in first position after an amazing rollout this past weekend (more on that below). While I think the sophomore frame dip will be more than 50%, I believe a high 50s gross will comfortably leave it atop the charts.
Holdovers will fill slots 3-5. The Little Mermaid, after an expectedly hefty second weekend fall, should level off and get above $20 million in weekend 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may remain fourth since it shouldn’t see a percentage drop as large as The Boogeyman‘s in its second outing.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top five:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $58.4 million
2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $42.2 million
3. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
5. The Boogeyman
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Box Office Results (June 2-4)
Swinging the #2 best premiere of 2023 behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie was Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That’s also the seventh highest animated opening ever. It built upon the goodwill from its 2018 Oscar-winning predecessor and made off with $120.6 million. That’s well beyond my projection of $96.4 million. Look for it to play well throughout the season (and it’s certainly the frontrunner to win Best Animated Feature next year).
The Little Mermaid slipped to second with $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, on track with my $40.5 million take. The ten-day gross for the live-action Disney remake is $186 million. That’s pretty decent, but its overseas earnings are underwhelming.
PG-13 horror flick The Boogeyman, based on a Stephen King short story, couldn’t pick up buzz as Spidey sucked up all the oxygen. It made $12.3 million for third, falling below my $17.7 million prediction.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $10.6 million (I said $9.6 million) as the MCU threequel is up to $323 million after five weeks.
Fast X rounded out the top five with $9.5 million compared to my $10.1 million forecast. It’s doing better internationally, but the three-week $128 million domestic haul is unimpressive.
We are caught up and have reached 2022 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
For the ceremony that occurred less than three months ago, we know Everything Everywhere All at Once would land a spot. To say it was the big winner on Oscar night is an understatement. The multi-genre hit made off with 7 trophies – Picture, Director (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Original Screenplay (also the Daniels), and Film Editing. It was nominated for four more – Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu), Costume Design, Original Score, and Original Song.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five was no easy feat, but here’s my best speculation!
Well… almost. Before we get to that, this particular series will now become a yearly occurrence where I give you my final five in the coming years. However, stay tuned for the reverse of these write-ups. Starting soon and beginning with 2008 (the last year there were five nominees), I’ll give you speculation on which pictures I believe would be nominated if there were ten contending films.
Back to the Oscars that just happened…
All Quiet on the Western Front
Edward Berger’s World War I epic was one of the easiest picks on Oscar night to win the International Feature Film trophy. It also took home Cinematography, Original Score, and Production Design and received noms for Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. The quartet of victories was second best to Everything.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, despite surprising misses for its Director and in Film Editing. I still think the 9 nine total nods (also second best to Everything) puts it in the quintet.
Avatar: The Way of Water
As anticipated, James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel to the 2009 box office behemoth was a victor in Visual Effects. It also got nods in Production Design and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Water logged less than half of its predecessor’s nine mentions and Cameron himself didn’t make the directorial derby.
The Banshees of Inisherin
Martin McDonagh’s black comedy clocked nine nominations with the others being for the director and screenwriter (both McDonagh), Actor (Colin Farrell), two Supporting Actor bids (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan), Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon), Film Editing, and Original Score. It ended up going 0 for 8.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The winning percentage of zero was due to the Everything love, but it still would’ve found a slot among the five.
Elvis
Baz Luhrmann’s lavish musical biopic of The King shimmied to 8 nods including Actor (Austin Butler), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound. Like Banshees, it left the building with no statues.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Had Elvis garnered wins in some of the below-the-line races (which it was expected to) or for Butler, I may have a different answer in this case. Yet it wasn’t to be.
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg’s most personal work to date saw 7 nominations for the director and screenwriter (both Spielberg with Tony Kushner co-scribing), Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch), Original Score, and Production Design. In what’s starting to sound like a broken record, it failed to capitalize on any of its nominations.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I struggled with this one. Missing editing (a good harbinger of a BP nod) was a surprise and same goes for the cinematography. Ultimately the power of Spielberg might’ve reserved this for the fourth or fifth spot.
Tár
Todd Field’s profile of a complicated EGOT winner generated six mentions for its director and screenwriter (both Field), Actress (Cate Blanchett), Cinematography, and Film Editing. Once again – any potential victory was thwarted by Everything as it went 0/6.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I must say that I really went back and forth on this (more so than with The Fabelmans). Yet it managed to score inclusions in the precursors that matter most and it gets the edge for it.
Top Gun: Maverick
The moneymaking monolith of 2022 had a total of six nominations with Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects on the menu. It emerged victorious in Sound (Everything and Western Front didn’t take them all).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. I went back and forth between this and Tár for #5. The latter got in where it matters. Maverick, despite being the people’s champ, missed key races like Director (Joseph Kosinski), Actor (Tom Cruise), and Cinematography.
Triangle of Sadness
The Palme d’or recipient at Cannes was awarded an unexpected directing nod for Ruben Östlund and an expected screenwriting mention for him. The count for was 0 for 3.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Östlund’s surprise nomination for his behind the camera was a pleasant surprise, but a final five slot would be an even bigger shocker.
Women Talking
Director Sarah Polley won for her Adapted Screenplay and that marks Women‘s only other nom. That means the sprawling cast that included Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, and Jessie Buckley were all left out.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Despite the screenplay award, the aforementioned facts make this the easiest of the bunch to leave out (especially considering its two nods were the smallest of the group).
And that means my 2022 final five is:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Stay tuned for the inverse of these posts beginning with 2008!
If you missed my write-ups in the series covering 2009-21, you can access them right here:
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 