Box Office Predictions: May 20-22

The third weekend of summer 2016 brings some intrigue into the season as the Seth Rogen/Zac Efron raunchy sequel Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, app based animated tale The Angry Birds Movie, and Russell Crowe/Ryan Gosling action comedy The Nice Guys all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

All three titles have question marks. All three titles could over perform or under perform. And as I see it, it could create a genuine three-way race for the top spot between Neighbors, Birds, and current two-week champion Captain America: Civil War.

Meanwhile, The Nice Guys has been the beneficiary of solid reviews and a robust marketing campaign and it could certainly rise above the mid-teens gross I have it pegged at. Having said that, it’s difficult to see it moving into the top 3. The Jungle Book should round out the top five.

The closeness of that top 3 reflects my belief that there will only be about a $4 million difference between those pictures, with Neighbors being the victor, Captain America and his avengers friends and foes in second, and those Birds taking third. We shall see how it all shakes out in this highly unpredictable frame which will get even more interesting when potential heavy hitters X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass arrive Memorial Day weekend.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for this weekend:

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Predicted Gross: $38.2 million

2. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $35.1 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $34.5 million

4. The Nice Guys

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

5. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 36%)

Box Office Results (May 13-15)

Captain America: The Winter Soldier easily remained #1 (as expected) for the second weekend in a row as it grossed $72.6 million, just under my $76.8M estimate. The Marvel tale has amassed $295M in ten days. It will come in under the number of the two Avengers entries but has already become the highest grossing Cap flick as The Winter Soldier topped out at $259M domestic.

Disney held the runner-up position again as The Jungle Book swung another $17.1 million (in range with my $18.6M prediction) for a five-week total of $311M.

The George Clooney/Julia Roberts thriller Money Monster debuted in third with $14.7 million, managing to come in at the top end of its expectations and managing to top my $12.7M prediction. While it will almost surely drop out of the top five this weekend, look for it to have fairly smallish declines and maybe reach an eventual gross of $50-$60M.

Opening lightly in fourth place was the Kevin Bacon horror flick The Darkness with $4.9 million, just under my $5.6M prognosis. Look for the low-budget Blumhouse offering to be VOD ready soon.

Mother’s Day plummeted in weekend #3 since it didn’t have that whole actual Mother’s Day holiday working this time around. The rom com earned $3.2 million (below my $4.7M forecast) for a total of $28M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 13-15

The second weekend of summer should bring further domination from Captain America and his Marvel friends and foes as Civil War will easily reign supreme in weekend #2. There are two new entries: Jodie Foster’s thriller Money Monster starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts and the Blumhouse horror flick The Darkness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts of each of them right here:

Money Monster Box Office Prediction

The Darkness Box Office Prediction

As I see it, Money Monster will likely settle for a third place showing with Mother’s Day and The Darkness fighting it out for the four spot.

Civil War had an impressive opening that still came in below many prognosticators (including this one) were saying… more on that below. These Disney/Marvel ventures typically drop in the mid-high 50s and I expect the same here (the first Avengers pic, it’s worth noting, dropped just 50%).

As for The Jungle Book, I expect a fairly small decline for it (as is typical with many pictures in the second weekend of May) and it should have no problem staying in the runner-up position.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $76.8 million (representing a drop of 57%)

2. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million (representing a drop of 24%)

3. Money Monster

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Darkness

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Mother’s Day

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (May 6-8)

Summer 2016 started off as so many others have in recent years with Marvel ruling the charts as Captain America: Civil War took in $179.1 million. That’s good for the fifth largest domestic opening of all time, nestled between other MCU entries Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3. The debut is just fine, but also on the lower end of its expectations (I put it at $205.6M).

The Jungle Book fell to second after three weeks on top with $24.4 million, in line with my $23.5M projection for a total of $287M.

Perhaps the story of the weekend was Mother’s Day, which jumped 32% in its second weekend to $11 million (more than doubling my meager $5.1M prediction). Lesson to be learned: a movie called Mother’s Day (no matter how bad its reviews may be) is going to do well on Mother’s Day. Its two-week total is $22M and I would expect a pretty big dip next weekend.

The Huntsman Winter’s War was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $4.5M) for a weak $40M haul while Keanu rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I went higher with $4.9M). Keanu‘s total is just $15M. Zootopia was sixth – also with $3.2 million and under my $4.8M prognosis for a $328M tally.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 6-8

Disney and Marvel once again stake claim to the first weekend of May’s box office spot as they have for six of the last eight years when Captain America: Civil War invades theaters this weekend. It is the first summer movie of the year and it stands an excellent chance at being the biggest of them all. You can read my detailed prediction post on it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/27/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-prediction/

My $205.6 million opening weekend prediction puts it at #4 all-time, just below 2012’s The Avengers at $207M and above last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron, which bowed to $191M. The company it finds itself in between is appropriate as Civil War is essentially a third Avengers pic, with Iron Man, Black Widow, Ant-Man, Spider-Man, and more joining Chris Evans’ title character.

As for holdovers, Disney should have no trouble at the #2 position as The Jungle Book will slip there after three weeks on top. Keanu, The Huntsman Winter’s War, Zootopia and Mother’s Day should make up the rest in a tightly bunched formation that I have with all around $5M.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $205.6 million

2. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

3. Mother’s Day

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Keanu

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 14%)

6. The Huntsman Winter’s War

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (April 29-May 1)’

As expected, Disney’s The Jungle Book slayed its competitors for a third weekend on top with $43.7 million (higher than my $37.9M estimate) for a grand total of $253M. The Mouse Factory’s mega-hit will finally be replaced by another Mouse Factory mega-hit this weekend.

And now for the non mega-hits. The Huntsman Winter’s Way remained in second with $9.6 million for a tepid total of $34M. It did manage to top my $8.1M projection.

Newbies did not fare well. Despite mostly positive reviews, Key and Peele’s comedy Keanu managed just $9.4 million in third, well below my generous $17.6M prediction.

The news was even worse for Mother’s Day (which got scathing reviews) which debuted in fourth with only $8.3 million (I said $14.7M).

Barbershop: The Next Cut rounded out with top five with $6 million – in line with my $6.2M estimate for a three-week take of $44M.

The video game inspired Ratchet & Clank disappointed in seventh with only $4.8 million, just under my $5.2M prediction. That meant Disney’s Zootopia (in weekend #8) was sixth with $5.3 million ($323M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top six.

And that’ll for now, ladies and gentlemen! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 29-May 1

Three new entries populate the box office this weekend as the Key and Peele comedy Keanu, Jennifer Aniston/Julia Roberts dramedy Mother’s Day, and video game based animated pic Ratchet & Clank open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/keanu-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/mothers-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/23/ratchet-clank-box-office-prediction/

None of them are likely to knock Disney’s The Jungle Book off its perch at #1, which will be the third weekend on top for Mowgli and friends.

Keanu and Mother’s Day should nab the #2 and #3 positions. I have The Huntsman Winter’s War dropping to fourth and it should have a pretty hefty decline after its disappointing opening (more on that below).

I’m not expecting much out of Ratchet & Clank and have it fighting for fifth with the third weekend of Barbershop: The Next Cut and slightly losing that battle.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $37.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)

2. Keanu

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. Mother’s Day

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

4. The Huntsman Winter’s War

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Barbershop: The Next Cut

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. Ratchet & Clank

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (April 22-24)

Disney’s The Jungle Book kept swinging along in its sophomore frame with $61.5 million, just above my $59M projection for a two-week tally of $192M. As mentioned, it should easily retain its #1 status next weekend before another Mouse Factory entry – Captain America: Civil War – does its thing in a few days.

The weekend’s major newcomer was also quite a high-profile flop. The Huntsman Winter’s War, the sort of prequel/sequel to 2012’s hit Snow White and the Huntsman, earned just $19.4 million (lower than my $26.3M estimate). With a reported $115 million budget, War couldn’t overcome toxic reviews and the absence of Kristen Stewart (aka Snow White). The pic may struggle to even reach the $56 million that Snow White made in its opening weekend. Ouch.

Barbershop: The Next Cut was third in its second weekend with $10.5 million, in line with my $11.2M prediction for a total of $35M.

Zootopia was fourth with $6.5 million, higher than my estimate of $5M for a $316M total.

Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss rounded out the top five with $6.2 million, ahead of my $4.9M projection for a three-week take of $49M (pretty low for one of her comedies).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Mother’s Day Box Office Prediction

Director Garry Marshall is back in holiday themed comedy mode as Mother’s Day hits screens next weekend. This follows 2010’s Valentine’s Day, which took in an amazing $52 million out of the gate. The following year’s New Year’s Eve couldn’t keep up and its toxic reviews helped lead to a muted $13 million debut.

Mother’s Day doesn’t have the cavalcade of stars that the previous entries did, but it does feature Jennifer Aniston, Julia Roberts, Kate Hudson, and Jason Sudeikis. Open Road Films is hopeful this can attract a female crowd while the males could be tempted by Key and Peele’s Keanu, premiering on the same day.

I’ll predict Mother’s Day does manage to outpace New Year’s Eve by a bit, but it won’t come near the love audiences showed for Valentine’s Day.

Mother’s Day opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million