BLOGGER’S UPDATE (09/09/16): I can no longer ignore the strong signals that Sully will top the box office this weekend. I’m not changing my When the Bough Breaks forecast, but am upping Sully from $19.8M to $28.5M.
The second weekend of September brings us four new entries that will likely perform significantly different. There’s the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks collaboration Sully, romantic thriller When the Bough Breaks, horror pic The Disappointments Room and Belgian animated export The Wild Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/sully-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/when-the-bough-breaks-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/01/the-disappointments-room-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/02/the-wild-life-box-office-prediction/
As I see it, there could be a serious battle for the #1 slot between Bough and Sully. The latter debuted to positive reviews over the weekend (75% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). The former is a critic proof entity that could follow in the footsteps of September 2014’s No Good Deed and September 2015’s The Perfect Guy with grosses in the low to mid 20s. Meanwhile, I have Sully not quite reaching $20M, though it’ll likely have solid legs in subsequent weekends.
For those reasons, I’m giving Bough the edge to reach the top spot this weekend. I have a feeling there may be those who disagree. As for the other newcomers, I’m expecting wildly disappointing results. Neither The Disappointments Room or The Wild Life seem to have any momentum. My $2.3M and $3.2M estimates for them, respectively, leave them outside the top five.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:
Sully – 64% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 5% Too High
When the Bough Breaks – 53% Just About Right, 44% Too High, 3% Too Low
The Disappointments Room – 64% Just About Right, 22% Too Low, 14% Too High
The Wild Life – 50% Just About Right, 43% Too Low, 7% Too High
As for holdovers, current two-time champ Don’t Breathe should slip to third with Suicide Squad in fourth. Kubo and Pete’s Dragon are likely to battle for the five spot with similar grosses.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Sully
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
2. When the Bough Breaks
Predicted Gross: $22.7 million
3. Don’t Breathe
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
4. Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)
Box Office Results (September 2-5)
It was a typically sluggish Labor Day weekend as two newcomers failed to connect with audiences. The low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe, on the other hand, continued to impress with $19.7 million (above my $16.7M estimate) for a total of $55 million.
Suicide Squad was second once again with $12.6 million (in line with my $12.9M projection) as it crossed the $300M line.
Kubo and the Two Strings was third with $8.7 million (I said $8M) for a $36M gross. The four and five spots were holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five: Pete’s Dragon with $8.4 million ($66M total) and Sausage Party with $6.4 million ($89M total).
As for the aforementioned newcomers… ouch. Romantic drama The Light Between Oceans was sixth with only $6.1 million (well under my $11.3M prediction).
Sci-fi thriller Morgan fared even worse with just $2.5 million for 18th place… less than a fourth of my generous $10.6M forecast.
And that will do it for now, blog readers! Until next time…
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