Blogger’s Note (03/14/18): I am revisiting my estimate considerably upwards to $5.4 million
Playing in theaters next weekend is the faith based drama ICanOnlyImagine, which tells the story behind the making of the most popular Christian contemporary song of all time. The song shares the title of the film from the band MercyMe with J. Michael Finley as lead singer Bart Millard. Costars include Dennis Quaid, Cloris Leachman, and Trace Adkins. The directors are Andrew and Jon Erwin, makers of Woodlawn and Moms’ NightOut.
I’ve yet to see a theater count for Imagine, but I would guess it’ll be relatively low at about 1,000. This genre has shown the ability to over perform estimates. That said, this one seems to be generating rather meager buzz. The Erwin brothers have seen their previous two outings make about $4 million for their starts. I’ll predict Imagine doesn’t quite reach that number.
ICanOnlyImagine opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million
It’s the battle of AMC stars Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm as the summer season rolls along entering weekend #3 with monster flick Godzilla and Disney sports drama Million Dollar Arm entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Godzilla with Cranston should very easily dominate while a more interesting scenario could play out for the runner-up spot. Last weekend’s champ Neighbors had a bigger than expected opening (more on that below), however it received only a B Cinemascore grade which is lower than I would’ve thought. That means it could be in store for a larger sophomore drop-off than I might have earlier anticipated. This could set it up for a close showdown with Million Dollar Arm, starring Hamm.
As for the rest of the top five, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should experience another healthy fall in its third weekend while The Other Woman rounds out the group.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Godzilla
Predicted Gross: $77.3 million
2. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $24.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Million Dollar Arm
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (May 9-11)
The Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy Neighbors scored a truly impressive debut with $49 million, well above my $37.3M projection. The well-reviewed frat pic scored the fifth highest R rated comedy opening of all time, after The Hangover Part II, Sex and the City, Ted, and Jackass 3-D.
Dropping to second was The Amazing Spider-Man 2, plummeting a healthy 61% with $35.5 million, below my $40.6M estimate. The Spidey sequel has not met expectations domestically and it’s on course to certainly be the lowest grossing pic in the franchise yet. Sony and Marvel might be in for a major brainstorming session in order for the planned third and fourth installments to reverse this troubling trend.
The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz was third with $9.6 million in weekend #3, holding up stronger than my $7.6M prediction. In fourth, Heaven Is for Real also performed better than my prediction with my $7.4 million (I said $5M). The fifth and sixth spots went to sequel holdovers that I didn’t include in my top six estimates: Captain America: The Winter Soldier took in $5.7 million and Rio 2 made $5 million.
This means the other two newbies this weekend posted lackluster results. The faith based Moms’ Night Out was seventh with $4.3 million, slightly under my $5.1M projection. The animated Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return tanked in eighth with $3.7 million, below my moderate $5.7M estimate.
We enter the second weekend of the summer 2014 movie season with three new pictures opening: the Seth Rogen/Zac Efron frat comedy Neighbors, the animated pic Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, and the faith based comedy Moms’ Night Out. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
Both Oz and Moms’ Night Out could exceed expectations, but I’m estimating rather muted debuts for each. It’s Neighbors that could truly challenge last weekend’s champ The Amazing Spider-Man 2 for the #1 slot. I believe it’ll be close, but ultimately I think Spidey prevails… barely.
Holdovers The Other Woman and Heaven Is for Real should experience drops in the 40s range. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:
1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $40.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $37.3 million
3. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. Moms’ Night Out
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (May 2-4)
The summer season got underway and I finally had a pretty damn solid weekend of predictin’!
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 got off to a $91.6 million opening – right in line with my $90.1M projection. This is a solid start for the web slinger, even though it doesn’t match what the original trilogy with Tobey Maguire managed to accomplish. While some prognosticators thought it would top $100M, its opening marks 2014’s second highest rollout following Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $14.4 million… I said $14.3M (gold star)!
Heaven Is for Real was third with $8.6 million… I said $8.5M (gold star 2)!
The rest of the top five was rounded out by Captain America: The Winter Soldier at 4 with $7.7M (a bit below my $9M prediction) and Rio 2 at 5 with $7.7M (just below my $8.3M estimate).
For those who like their comedy considerably less raunchy, this Friday brings us the faith based pic Moms’ Night Out featuring Sarah Drew, Sean Astin, Patricia Heaton, and country singer Trace Adkins. It looks to serve as counter programming to Neighbors, which should be poised for a big opening this weekend.
In case you haven’t noticed, faith based movies have experienced a solid 2014 with titles like Son of God, God’s Not Dead, and Heaven Is for Real all posting impressive numbers. This one’s a little different, though. For starters – it’s only scheduled to open on a relatively low 1000 screens which should damper its premiere gross. Secondly, the marketing push for Moms’ Night Out seems a bit quieter than the aforementioned pics.
This may have the advantage of bringing out some female audience members but with the limited number of venues it’s playing in, Moms’ Night Out shouldn’t approach double digits and will likely reach only in the mid single digits.
Moms’ Night Out opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
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