Tag: Mission: Impossible – Fallout

The Oscars Go “Popular”: An Analysis

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences dropped a rather big bombshell today with some announced changes to their Oscar telecast. First off, they’re claiming the show will now be just three hours (I’ll believe it when I see it). Additionally, some categories (I imagine numerous tech ones) will be announced live during commercial breaks and then edited into the show later. This probably won’t make the individuals in those races happy, but it should speed up the program.

However, the most noticeable and interesting change is the addition of a new category (something the Academy rarely does). The addition is described as “Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film”. No other details have been provided, but this would appear to be an attempt by the Academy to include blockbusters that haven’t made the cut in Best Picture.

So what does that mean? What is the criteria? That was not announced today and it will be fascinating to see what such criteria is. Could it be a particular gross… say over $100 million domestically? Could it be the number of the theaters a movie is released in? Time will tell and hopefully these details will be revealed shortly. It isn’t even immediately clear that these changes will all be in effect for the 2019 telecast, but I imagine they will be.

Even though nothing is totally clear at press time, that won’t stop me from speculating and asking, “What if this category had been in effect in previous years?”

Before that, let’s start with this year. If there is a Best Popular Film category in 2018, that greatly increases the chances of Marvel’s Black Panther and horror smash A Quiet Place getting nods. There’s also Mission: Impossible – Fallout (the most acclaimed entry in the franchise) or perhaps Avengers: Infinity War. Pixar will certainly see Incredibles 2 nominated in Best Animated Feature, but it could make a play here as well. And we still have fall releases like Mary Poppins Returns and A Star Is Born out there.

There will be plenty of speculation as to whether Black Panther will be the first superhero pic to nab a Best Picture nomination. There is little doubt it would be recognized in this new category.

It’s been discussed on this blog previously about the 2008 Oscars which omitted The Dark Knight in the Best Picture derby. That development was likely responsible for the Academy changing its rule of five nominated films to anywhere between five and ten. Yet it would appear the Academy still isn’t satisfied with major hits being included.

Let’s consider last year. Of the nine Best Picture nominees, only two grossed over $100 million – Get Out and Dunkirk. If the Popular Film category had existed a year ago, I imagine both features would have achieved double nominations. Assuming this new category contains five nominees (something not revealed yet), what would the other three have been? There’s plenty of blockbusters to choose from: Beauty and the Beast, Wonder Woman, It, Logan, Coco, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder, and Baby Driver. 

Here’s my best guess of what a Best Popular Film slate would have looked like in 2017:

Dunkirk, Get Out, Logan, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman

And I’m thinking Get Out would have won.

In 2016, you might have seen Deadpool and The Jungle Book as Popular picks.

In 2015, there could have been room for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Straight Outta Compton.

2014? Perhaps Guardians of the Galaxy and Gone Girl. 

Heck, let’s go way back. Would Jurassic Park have won Best Popular Film in 1993? I don’t think so. I bet it would have gone to The Fugitive, which nabbed an actual Best Picture nomination.

Of course, there would have been years where Best Picture and Best Popular Film match. 1994 with Forrest Gump. 1997’s Titanic. 2000’s Gladiator. Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003.

Back to today. I would say this new category seems tailor-made for Black Panther. Does that mean its chances for a Best Picture nod are now diminished because voters figure it runs away with this? Perhaps. And that’s why I’m not too wild about this change at the moment. This has the potential to look like a desperate play by the Academy. At the least, it’s an acknowledgment that audience favorites and Academy favorites don’t often match.

That said, let’s see what the criteria is and I’ll judge from there. It’s a new era at the Oscars… one where Bumblebee stands a shot (however remote) at Oscar glory!

Box Office Predictions: August 10-12

***Blogger’s Note II (08/09/18): A big change has happened. I am revising my estimate for The Meg up to $22.7 million, therefore giving it the #1 spot. I am also increasing my BlacKkKlansman estimate once again from $7.6M to $9.6M

**Blogger’s Note (08/08/18): I have revised my BlacKkKlansman estimate from $5.6M to $7.6M, which gives it the #5 spot and drops The Spy Who Dumped Me outside the top five.

A quartet of newbies attempt to dethrone Tom Cruise this weekend as shark tale The Meg, Internet meme based horror pic Slender Man, canine tale Dog Days, and Spike Lee’s awards hopeful BlacKkKlansman all open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/the-meg-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/slender-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/dog-days-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/03/blackkklansman-box-office-prediction/

Of the four newcomers, The Meg appears poised to earn the most. Audiences have proven they dig their shark flicks and the upside here is real. However, my high teens projection leaves it behind Mission: Impossible – Fallout and that would give Cruise and company a third weekend atop the charts.

Slender Man is a real question mark. Its studio doesn’t seem to have much faith in it, but horror titles can often surprise. I’m definitely at the lower end of expectations currently with a forecast in the high single digits. That would leave it lurking in fourth place behind Christopher Robin. 

The five-spot depends on how the other two newcomers perform. Dog Days is opening on Wednesday and my $5.1 million estimate for its Friday to Sunday performance leaves it behind the $5.6 million I’m predicting for BlacKkKlansman (which certainly could go higher). That leaves both of them behind the second frame of The Spy Who Dumped Me, which should drop in the mid 40s range.

It’s an unpredictable weekend we have before us, but here’s how I have the top 5 looking:

1. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

2. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross:$13.8 million

4. BlacKkKlansman

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

5. Slender Man

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

***If these numbers change throughout the week, I’ll post updates!

Box Office Results (August 3-5) 

Mission: Impossible – Fallout had a terrific hold in weekend #2, dropping just 42% to gross $35.3 million (above my $32 million projection) and remain #1. The sixth installment of Tom Cruise’s franchise has amassed $124 million so far.

Disney’s Christopher Robin came in on the bottom end of expectations in the runner-up position with $24.5 million compared to my more generous $29.6 million estimate. Winnie the Pooh and company will hope for small declines in coming weekends.

The Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me also debuted on the low-end of the expected scale in third with just $12.1 million, under my $15.3 million forecast.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again was fourth with $9 million (I said $8.3 million) for $91 million in three weeks.

I mistakenly left The Equalizer 2 out of the top five, but it was fifth with $8.7 million. The Denzel Washington sequel has made $79 million and looks to potentially top the $101 million earned by its predecessor.

Hotel Transylvania 3 was sixth with $8 million (I was lower at $6.9 million) and it’s earned $136 million overall. The franchise has shown remarkable consistency and I’d look for a fourth installment in about three years.

Finally, YA adaptation The Darkest Minds suffered a bad opening in 8th place with $5.8 million, in line with my $6.3 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 3-5

Blogger’s Note II (08/02/18): I am revising Christopher Robin down to $29.6 million, meaning I’m now predicting Mission: Impossible – Fallout will take the top spot.

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): I am revising my estimate for Darkest Minds from $8.7 million down to $6.3 million, which leaves it outside the top five.

The month of August at the box office kicks off with three new releases attempting to dislodge Tom Cruise and his IMF agents from the top spot: Disney’s Christopher Robin, Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, and Fox’s YA adaptation The Darkest Minds. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/christopher-robin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-spy-who-dumped-me-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-darkest-minds-box-office-prediction/

Paramount is celebrating the franchise best opening yet with Mission: Impossible – Fallout and I’m anticipating a second weekend drop in the mid 40s range. That should put it in an extremely tight battle with Winnie the Pooh and company, which I have premiering in the mid 30s (though it could go higher).

The #3 spot should go to Spy, which I have slated for a mid teens start. Both Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2 dipped more harshly in their sophomore frames than I estimated. Therefore my high double digits projection for The Darkest Mind could be enough for it to nab #4 (though it could be neck and neck with Mamma).

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $32 million

2. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $29.6 million

3. The Spy Who Dumped Me

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (July 27-29) 

22 years after part 1, Tom Cruise achieved his highest opening in the Mission: Impossible franchise as Fallout took in $61.2 million (a touch below my $63.6 million estimate). Bolstered by terrific reviews, the sixth entry in the spy saga managed to outdo previous record holder Mission: Impossible II‘s $57 million way back in 2000. It’s safe to say Mr. Cruise is planning his stunts for a seventh pic.

Holdovers all experienced harsher declines that I figured. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again remained in second place with $15.1 million (I said $19.8 million) to bring its two-week tally to $70 million.

Last week’s champ The Equalizer 2 was third with $14 million compared to my $17.1 million projection. The Denzel Washington sequel fell a mighty 61% in its sophomore outing.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation was fourth with $12.2 million (I went with my $13.6 million). It’s earned $119 million overall.

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, despite positive critical reaction, had a lackluster beginning in fifth place with $10.4 million, well under my $16.4 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Christopher Robin Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate down a tad from $34 million to $29.6 million

Disney’s Christopher Robin hopes to make a pot of money when it’s released next weekend. The mix of live-action and CG brings back Winnie the Pooh, Tigger, Eeyore, Piglet, and other notable creatures that originated from the 1926 novel. Ewan McGregor plays an adult Christopher with Hayley Atwell as his wife. Jim Cummings, Brad Garrett, Toby Jones, Nick Mohammed, Peter Capaldi, and Sophie Okonedo provide voiceover work. Marc Forster directs. I’m guessing this is more in tone with his 2003 pic Finding Neverland and not Quantum of Solace and World War Z.

This is not to be confused with last year’s Goodbye Christopher Robin with Domhnall Gleeson and Margot Robbie. That biopic about Pooh’s author went nowhere at the box office.

That shouldn’t be the case here. The Mouse Factory is certainly astute at marketing their product and the familiarity with Winnie and friends won’t hurt. It may even succeed at tapping into adult moviegoers hungry for a nostalgic fix. Depending on how high Mission: Impossible – Fallout flies this coming weekend, a low to possibly mid 30s gross from Robin could put it in contention for the top spot. That seems reasonable for where this begins.

Christopher Robin opening weekend prediction: $29.6 million

For my The Spy Who Dumped Me prediction, click here:

The Spy Who Dumped Me Box Office Prediction

For my The Darkest Minds prediction, click here:

The Darkest Minds Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: July 27-29

Tom Cruise and his IMF forces are back in theaters for the sixth time as Mission: Impossible – Fallout debuts this weekend along with the superhero animated tale Teen Titans! Go To the Movies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/17/mission-impossible-fallout-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/18/teen-titans-go-to-the-movies-box-office-prediction/

Fallout is getting some of the best reviews that the 22-year-old franchise has ever received and the Ethan Hunt adventure should easily top the charts with a low to mid 60s haul.

It’s the #2 spot that could be a little more interesting. In a bit of a surprise this past weekend, The Equalizer 2 edged by Mamma Mia! Here Go Again for the #1 position. However, Fallout provides more direct competition for Denzel and it’s likely that Mamma retains the runner-up position with Equalizer falling to third.

And that’s only if Teen Titans doesn’t manage to outperform my estimate. My forecast for it has dwindled over the last few days and my low teens expectation could put it in a close battle for fourth with the third weekend of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. 

Here’s how I see the top five playing out:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $63.6 million

2. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. The Equalizer 2

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Teen Titans! Go To the Movies

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

Box Office Results (July 20-22) 

Denzel Washington continued to prove his box office potency as The Equalizer 2 was a surprise #1 over Mamma Mia with $36 million, easily outpacing my $26.8 million estimate. That tops the $34 million earned out of the gate by its predecessor. With the Mission competition coming up, I expect this to drop approximately 50%.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, despite failing to place first, opened right in line with expectations with a pleasing $34.9 million. That’s a bit higher than my $33.5 million estimate. As stated above, I expect it to maintain its #2 position this weekend.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation dropped to third with $23.7 million in its sophomore frame for $91 million total. That’s on target with my $24.5 million prediction.

Ant-Man and the Wasp was fourth with $16.5 million (I said $15.2 million) to bring its tally to $165 million.

Incredibles 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The Pixar record breaker took in $11.8 million and it’s up to $557 million.

I mistakenly had Skyscraper in the top 5, but it was sixth with $11.3 million (a tad under my $12 million projection). The underwhelming Dwayne Johnson action pic has made $47 million.

Lastly, Unfriended: Dark Web couldn’t generate an audience with just $3.4 million (I went higher at $5.1 million). That said, the Blumhouse horror sequel reportedly only cost $1 million, so I’m sure the studio isn’t sweating it too much.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies Box Office Prediction

***Blogger’s Note II (07/26): On the eve of its premiere, I’m bumping my estimate back up from $13.4M to $16.4M

**Blogger’s Note (07/20): My estimate for Titans has dwindled from $17.4M to just $13.4M. That could mean a debut in the lower rungs of the top 5.

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies attempts to be the next animated hit of the summer when it debuts next weekend. This is a big screen version of the Cartoon Network’s series that debuted five years ago focusing on some fresh DC Comics superheroes. The cast of the show is here to voice their characters including Greg Cipes, Scott Menville, Khary Payton, Tara Strong, and Hynden Walch. And we have some familiar faces joining the voice over party including Kristen Bell, Will Arnett, Jimmy Kimmel as Batman, James Corden, Halsey, and Lil Yachty. Nicolas Cage, who was supposed to play the Man of Steel in a scrapped live-action Tim Burton pic nearly two decades ago, finally gets to be Superman.

Fans of the series won’t propel this to the heights of other animated efforts this season like Incredibles 2 or Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. While Mission: Impossible – Fallout will undoubtedly dominate the charts next weekend, Titans will make a go for the #2 spot over holdovers Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2. 

A mid to high teens gross might be enough to achieve it and that’s the ballpark where I have this landing.

Teens Titans Go! To The Movies opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million

For my Mission: Impossible – Fallout prediction, click here:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout Box Office Prediction

Mission: Impossible – Fallout Box Office Prediction

Now in its 22nd year of existence, Tom Cruise’s signature franchise keeps rolling along as Mission: Impossible – Fallout, the sixth offering in the series debuts stateside next weekend. Christopher McQuarrie is the first director to come back behind the camera (he made 2015’s predecessor Rogue Nation) for repeat work after Brian De Palma, John Woo, J.J. Abrams, and Brad Bird made their stand-alone entries. Returning cast members from previous installments include Rebecca Ferguson, Simon Pegg, Ving Rhames, Michelle Monaghan, and Alec Baldwin. Newcomers include Henry Cavill and Angela Bassett.

The buzz for Fallout indicates it could be a high mark in the long running franchise. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 93% with some critics claiming it’s the best of the bunch thus far. It’s particularly being praised for its action scenes and stunt work (which actually caused its mega-watt star to break an ankle on set). Even with the generous helping of sequels and genre pics out there (Skyscraper will be in its third weekend of release with The Equalizer 2 in its second), this series seems to be going strong.

In order to achieve the largest opening of all the M:I features, Fallout would need to top the $57 million achieved 18 years ago by part 2. Rogue Nation came close three summers ago with $55 million. I believe this should have enough juice to do so with a low to mid 60s gross.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout opening weekend prediction: $63.6 million

For my Teen Titans Go! To the Movies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/18/teen-titans-go-to-the-movies-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch – Mission: Impossible – Fallout

For 22 years now, the Mission: Impossible franchise has been a sturdy and profitable one for its star Tom Cruise. Two weeks from now, the sixth picture in the series Mission: Impossible – Fallout hits theaters stateside. Early reviews have been quite impressive with some critics hailing it as the best movie of the bunch so far. One prominent critic went as far to say it’s the best action flick since Mad Max: Fury Road. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 96%.

In case you forgot, Fury Road got itself a Best Picture nomination. That seems highly unlikely for Fallout, but it’s fair to speculate whether voters will choose to honor it in any way. If they do, it would probably be in a technical category or two with Sound Editing and Sound Mixing being the most obvious. Fallout is being hailed for its amazing action sequences (if there was an Oscar category for Best Stunts, that race could be a wrap).

Of the five Mission‘s that have preceded this, they have a collective Oscar nod count of zero. Just that fact makes it a long shot that part 6 receives any attention. However, if some of the tech category voters want to throw it a bone, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…