Just as “Nuking the Fridge” has become shorthand for introducing unwanted material in a beloved franchise (courtesy of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull) – “Waving the Baby” may enter the lexicon thanks to The Flash. You’ll see what I mean in the opening scene of the DCEU adventure. There’s shoddy visual effects accompanying the term that may produce unintended laughter. That said, I kind of warmed up to this initial action sequence with Ezra Miller’s title character given a save the day assignment from Alfred the Butler (Jeremy Irons, reprising his role from Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Justice League). Like much of the first half, it’s light and quirky and (despite their offscreen troubles) Miller shines in a dual role. There’s genuine moments of intended laughter too. The second half is where this becomes overbaked and the frequent surprise cameos don’t save it. It’s a countdown to continued mediocrity after a sturdy start.
The Flash’s alter ego is Barry Allen and he’s assisting Ben Affleck’s version of the Caped Crusader (and others) as we begin. He’s doing a bit of the grunt work while his Justice League teammates handle cooler assignments. Barry’s mom (Maribel Verdú) was murdered when he was a youngster. His dad (Ron Livingston) was wrongly convicted of the crime and is imprisoned with an appeal on deck. The possibility of time travel is introduced giving Barry a potential green light to undo the childhood trauma and save his family. We know through countless features that going back to alter the future never works as intended. By the way, there’s some enjoyable reference to Back to the Future and additional 80s classics.
Before we know it, Barry/The Flash is stuck in a multiverse situation with a younger and not as scientifically gifted version of himself. In this world, Affleck doesn’t don the Batsuit. Instead we are given the chance to witness Michael Keaton back in the role for the first time in over 30 years. His Bruce Wayne is long out of the limelight, but the Barry’s visit to his Manor might get him to repeat iconic line readings once again.
There’s less memorable character reappearances in the alternate reality. Michael Shannon reprises his turn as General Zod from Man of Steel as does Antje Traue as his second-in-command. If you weren’t clamoring for that bad guy’s comeback, I get it. He was a weak nemesis a decade ago and he is again. This isn’t really Shannon’s fault, who’s a gifted performer in plenty of other films. He simply doesn’t have much of a role to flesh out. If comic book movies are as solid as the villains, The Flash is offtrack.
Of course, weak villains have been a staple of the DCEU and MCU and other factors often rescue them. For awhile, that’s the situation. Miller excels with the comedic timing and dramatic beats. Given that the initial hour plus focuses on the older and socially awkward Barry teaching dumber but happier Barry how to become a superhero, there’s plenty of entertainment value. Then it goes and clocks in at nearly two and half hours. Keaton’s return is welcome at first. Gimmicky? Sure. Sasha Calle’s debut as Supergirl is underwritten though her performance is promising if she’s given screen time in future entries.
The latter portions of The Flash are interchangeable from about every other genre experience. We’re talking loud, messy, and dull battles. By then, it doesn’t much matter that Keaton is in uniform or Miller’s performance is impressive. They’re drowned out by effects. The multiverse happenings (and we do see plenty of alternate realities with familiar faces) are becoming standard procedure thanks to Doctor Strange and Spider-Men. Barry’s familial dynamics are also well covered territory.
I’d have no trouble recommending The Flash if it stopped after about 75 minutes. Unfortunately it keeps running and the time remaining alters a universe in which it is ultimately satisfying.
**Blogger’s Update (06/13): I’m revised my prediction down from $90.2 million to $83.2 million**
Warner Bros hopes for the 13th DCEU picture is lucky at the box office as The Flash bolts into multiplexes on June 16th. It’s been a bumpy ride to the big screen between COVID delays and Ezra Miller (playing the title character) and their personal troubles. Andy Muschietti, who made the two It chapters, directs. Michael Keaton and Ben Affleck reprise their roles as Batman with Sasha Calle debuting as Supergirl. Costars include Michael Shannon (reprising his General Zod role from Man of Steel), Ron Livingston, Maribel Verdú, Kiersey Clemons, Antje Traue, and Jeremy Irons. Expect other noteworthy cameos.
The DCEU has had a rough go lately. Their last two titles, Black Adam and Shazam! Fury of the Gods, were significant financial disappointments. James Gunn and Peter Safran were recently tapped to run the struggling franchise. The Flash hopes to right the ship. The first four entries in the series (Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) all grossed $100 million plus in their debut weekends. The next eight movies did not with the second Shazam! only taking in $30 million out of the gate.
Reviews are fairly positive with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. If you subscribe to the all publicity is good publicity notion, the negative ink surrounding its lead shouldn’t hinder its potential (and the studio is keeping Miller off the circuit). While The Flash isn’t as iconic a character as the Caped Crusader, the reemergence of Keaton as that character could draw in viewers for a nostalgia fix (it’s been over 30 years since he’s donned the Batsuit).
A best case scenario is The Flash achieving the second best start of 2023 and topping the $120 million that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse achieved. The worst case result could be not reaching nine figures like those first four superhero tales. That might be the case and it could end up falling outside the top five openings of 2023 (under the $95 million of The Little Mermaid). My forecast puts this on pace with the $93 million that Justice League made back in 2017 (where Miller first fleshed out this character).
The Flash opening weekend prediction: $83.2 million
The twelve pictures that have made up the DC Extended Universe in the past decade has resulted in a grand total of one nomination at the Oscars. That honor belongs to Suicide Squad in 2016 for Makeup and Hairstyling and it won. Other DCEU titles like Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Wonder Woman, Aquaman, and 2021’s The Suicide Squad couldn’t manage Visual Effects or Sound or any other mentions.
Could that change with The Flash? Opening June 16th, the superhero tale finally hits screens after multiples delays and lots of unflattering news about its lead Ezra Miller. On the other hand, audiences could be stoked to see the returns of Ben Affleck and especially Michael Keaton as Batman. Sasha Calle costars as Supergirl with Michael Shannon reprising his role as General Zod from Man of Steel. Andy Muschietti, best known for helming the two It chapters, directs.
The review embargo lapsed today and the result thus far is 73%. That’s fine, but plenty of the write-ups are of the mixed variety. It’s nostalgic overtones are being praised and criticized. I could see this contending for Visual Effects and probably that race only. Yet given the DCEU track record, I wouldn’t want to double down on it making the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Eight years ago, documentarian Laura Poitras won the Oscar for her Edward Snowden centered Citizenfour. Her 2016 follow-up Risk (about WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange) was not the commercial success or awards player that the predecessor was. She looks to be back at the awards scene with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, which premiered in Venice and is on route to Toronto.
Her latest focuses on Nan Golden, an activist who takes on the opioid epidemic and those accountable for spreading it. If you’ve seen the acclaimed miniseries Dopesick with Michael Keaton, this could be an interesting companion piece.
One of the higher profile docs playing the fall fest circuit, Neon has already acquired the distribution rights. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%, all the logic dictates this should be a contender for Best Documentary Feature. That particular branch of the Academy is unpredictable, but this should be on your radar screen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Can Memory reverse the string of forgettable Liam Neeson pics we’ve seen lately or will it fall in line with his recent underwhelming performers? Slated for April 29th, this casts him as an assassin dealing with cognitive lapses. Martin Campbell (who kicked off the Brosnan and Craig 007 eras with Goldeneye and Casino Royale) directs. He most recently helmed the lackluster The Protege with Maggie Q and Michael Keaton. Costars include Guy Pearce (who starred in the acclaimed Memento which covered similar themes) and Monica Bellucci.
It’s been nearly a decade and a half since Neeson resurged his career with Taken. This second life as an action star resulted in some hits, but there’s been more misses recently. The Marksman and Blacklight took in $3.7 and $3.5 million, respectively, in the COVID era. I see no reason why Memory wouldn’t suffer a similar fate and the gross may even dip a bit.
It’s been an entire week since The Slap… check that, the 94th Academy Awards where CODA parlayed its Sundance buzz from January 2021 all the way to a Best Picture victory.
That also means I’ve managed to wait a whole week without speculation for the next Academy Awards which will hopefully be a slap free zone. So what are some titles that could be vying for attention?
On May 27th and after numerous delays, Top Gun: Maverick will find Tom Cruise returning to his iconic role some 36 years after the original. There’s a decent chance it could be up for similar prizes that its predecessor landed like Sound, Film Editing, and Song (courtesy of Lady Gaga apparently). Visual Effects is a possibility as well.
My weekly Oscar prediction posts won’t begin until mid to late August. In the meantime, you’ll get individualized write-ups for pics that open or screen at festivals.
Yet for today – I feel the need. The need to identify 21 other 2022 titles that might end up on the Academy’s radar. Enjoy!
Armageddon Time
Despite acclaimed movies like The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra, James Gray has yet to connect with awards voters. This drama, rumored to be centered on his Queens upbringing, is the next hopeful and features a stellar cast including Anne Hathaway, Anthony Hopkins, and Jeremy Strong. Release Date: TBD
Avatar 2
The 2009 original amassed nine nominations and won took home three. The first sequel (there’s three more on the way) arrives in December from James Cameron. Will it capture the critical and box office magic of part one? That’s impossible to know at this juncture, but one can safely assume it’ll be up for some tech categories like Sound and Visual Effects. Release Date: December 16th
Babylon
Damien Chazelle is no stranger to the big dance. Whiplash was a BP nominee and J.K. Simmons won Supporting Actor. Chazelle took Director for his follow-up La La Land along with Emma Stone’s Actress victory and it almost famously took BP. First Man nabbed four nominations, but missed the top of the line races. Babylon is a period drama focused on Hollywood’s Golden Age and should be right up the Academy’s alley. The cast includes Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, and Tobey Maguire. Release Date: December 25th
Canterbury Glass
Robbie also turns up in David O. Russell’s latest ensemble piece. Anytime he’s behind the camera, Oscar nods typically follow (think The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle). Slated for November, the dramedy also features Christian Bale, John David Washington, Rami Malek, Zoe Saldana, Robert De Niro, Mike Myers, and… Chris Rock. Release Date: November 4th
Elvis
Arriving in June but with a Cannes unveiling in May, Baz Luhrmann’s musical bio of The King stars Austin Butler in the title role and Tom Hanks as The Colonel. If this doesn’t contend for the major awards, I would still anticipate potential tech recognition (Production Design, Sound, etc…). Release Date: June 24th
Empire of Light
Sam Mendes was likely in the runner-up position in 2019 for Picture and Director (behind Parasite) with 1917. His follow-up is an English set romance starring Olivia Colman (who would be going for her fourth nomination in five years), Michael Ward, and Colin Firth. Release Date: TBD
Everything Everywhere All at Once
From two filmmakers known collectively as Daniels, Once is already out in limited release with spectacular reviews (97% on RT). The sci-fi action comedy might be too bizarre for the Academy, but I wouldn’t count it out as its admirers are vocal. Picture, Director, Actress (Michelle Yeoh), and Original Screenplay are all on the table. Release Date: out in limited release, opens wide April 8th
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg directs a semi-autobiographical tale and cowrites with his Lincoln and West Side Story scribe Tony Kushner. The cast includes Michelle Williams, Seth Rogen, and Paul Dano. Needless to say, this is a major contender on paper. Release Date: November 23rd
Killers of the Flower Moon
Alongside The Fabelmans, this might be the most obvious nominee from a personnel standpoint. Martin Scorsese helms this western crime drama featuring Jesse Plemons, Lily Gladstone, and his two frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. Apple TV just became the first streamer to get a BP victory with CODA. This could be the second in a row. Release Date: November
Poor Things
In 2018, The Favourite scored a whopping ten nominations. Based on an acclaimed 1992 novel, Poor Things is Yorgos Lanthimos’s follow-up and it reunites him with Emma Stone along with Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, and Mark Ruffalo. The plot sounds bizarre but it could also be an Oscar bait role for Stone and others. Release Date: TBD
Rustin
One of Netflix’s contenders is George C. Wolfe’s profile of gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin (played by Colman Domingo). In 2020, Wolfe directed Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman to nods for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Look for Domingo to be a competitor and the supporting cast includes Chris Rock (maybe he will be back at the show), Glynn Turman, and Audra McDonald. Release Date: TBD
See How They Run
The 1950s set murder mystery could provide 27-year-old Saoirse Ronan with an opportunity to land her fifth nomination. Sam Rockwell, David Oyelowo, Adrien Brody, and Ruth Wilson are among the supporting players. Tom George directs. Release Date: TBD
She Said
Five years after the scandal rocked Hollywood, She Said from Maria Schrader recounts the New York Times sexual misconduct investigation into Harvey Weinstein. Zoe Kazan, Carey Mulligan, and Patricia Clarkson lead the cast. Release Date: November 18th
The Son
Florian Zeller won Best Adapted Screenplay in 2020 for The Father along with Anthony Hopkins taking Best Actor. This follow-up (based on the director’s play) finds Hopkins reprising his Oscar-winning part in supporting fashion. Other cast members seeking awards attention include Hugh Jackman, Laura Dern, and Vanessa Kirby. Release Date: TBD
TAR
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Todd Field behind the camera. Previous efforts In the Bedroom and Little Children received 8 nominations between them. A decade and a half following Children comes this Berlin set drama with Cate Blanchett, Noemie Merlant, and Mark Strong. Release Date: October 7th
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Scheduled for a Cannes bow in May, Longing is a fantasy romance from the legendary mind of George Miller (who last made Mad Max: Fury Road which won six tech Oscars). Idris Elba and Tilda Swinton star. Release Date: TBD
The Whale
Darren Aronofsky directed Mickey Rourke to a comeback narrative nod for 2008’s The Wrestler. Two years later, his follow-up Black Swan earned Natalie Portman a statue. Brendan Fraser is hoping for the same treatment with The Whale as he plays a 600 pound man attempting to reconnect with his daughter. Costars include Sadie Sink, Hong Chau, and Samantha Morton. I’d expect Makeup and Hairstyling could also be in play with this. Release Date: TBD
White Noise
Not a remake of the Michael Keaton supernatural thriller from 2005, this is Noah Baumbach’s follow-up to Marriage Story. Based on a 1985 novel, it’s the filmmaker’s first picture based on other source material. Marriage landed three acting nods (with Laura Dern winning Supporting Actress). The cast here includes frequent Baumbach collaborator Adam Driver, real-life partner Greta Gerwig, Raffey Cassidy, Andre Benjamin, Alessandro Nivola, and Don Cheadle. This could be Netflix’s strongest contender. Release Date: TBD
The Woman King
Expect this West Afrian set historical epic from Gina Prince-Bythewood to be heavily touted by Sony with awards bait roles for leads Viola Davis and Thuso Mbedu. The supporting cast includes John Boyega and Lashana Lynch. Release Date: September 16th
Women Talking
Based on a 2018 novel, Sarah Polley writes and directs this drama focused on eight Mennonite women and their story of abuse. The sterling cast includes Frances McDormand, Jessie Buckley, Ben Whishaw, Claire Foy, and Rooney Mara. Release Date: TBD
And that’s just a small preview of the features that could materialize for the 95th Academy Awards! As always, the speculation on this site will continue throughout the year and into the next. Stay tuned…
Sony and Marvel are hoping there’s plenty of buyers in the Morbius club as the dark superhero tale finally premieres on April 1st. Led by Jared Leto in the title vampiric role, Daniel Espinosa directs with a supporting cast including Matt Smith, Adria Arjona, Al Madrigal, and Tyrese Gibson.
This is the third entry in Sony’s Spider-Man Universe after the two Venom flicks from 2018 and last year. Both of them were massive hits and, of course, we are on the heels of Spider-Man: No Way Home being the third largest domestic earner in history.
Morbius was originally set for release all the way back in summer of 2020 before its numerous COVID related delays. Shot for a reported $75 million, it should have no trouble making its money back (especially when including international grosses). Yet I’m skeptical it approaches the $80 million that Venom started with or $90 million that its sequel earned out of the gate a few months back.
Estimates are in the $40-$50 million range and my hunch is that projecting a debut in the middle end of that range is the call.
For a not insignificant portion of The Protege‘s running time, the plot is incidental but also unclear. I found myself forgetting why assassin Anna (Maggie Q) was kicking the rear ends of the various henchmen of a shady and mysterious rich guy. There’s two of them actually as the main villain shifts from time to time. The more constant presence is Rembrandt (Michael Keaton), who also works for the crime syndicate but doesn’t fall victim to Anna’s skull crushing skills. She seems to want him around.
The interplay between them indicates a screenplay flirting with a desire to branch beyond its pulverizing 90s era action tropes. This feels like more of a direct to video title than a direct to streaming affair. Because of its similarities to that time period three decades ago, it only feels right that Samuel L. Jackson participates. He’s Moody and in a 1991 prologue, he rescues young Anna after her family is brutally murdered in her native Vietnam. Actually rescue is the wrong word. He finds her and becomes her mentor. It was Anna who exacted revenge on the killers.
Moody is an assassin for hire and since this is a movie, he generally only offs really evil people. Anna is a chip off the old block and they form a lucrative business exterminating such vermin. She masquerades as a rare book store owner in London and that’s when she first encounters Rembrandt. He’s mysteriously connected to a former mark of Moody’s. Just the mention of his name (Edward Davis) causes holes in people’s heads and it leads Anna back to ‘Nam to investigate.
The Protege is quick, violent, and nicely cast. Q is a convincing action heroine and the familiar faces of Keaton and Jackson are welcome… to a point. The Anna/Rembrandt dynamic feels alternately fascinating (there’s a nice little Heat restaurant type of sequence between them) or tiresome depending on which act we’ve reached. The “twists” aren’t too twisty when considering the actors playing the roles and the expected amount of screen time they’d be granted. Martin Campbell (best known for kicking off 007 eras with Goldeneye and Casino Royale) knows what he’s doing with action sequences though he’s absolutely done better.
This is a generic shoot-em-up that should partly satisfy cravings of genre enthusiasts who like it lean, mean, and rather dumb. With Keaton quipping, I kept expecting The Protege to enter self parody territory. It never does and if it had, we might be entering a guilty pleasure experience that hit harder. I wouldn’t call this bad by any means, but it’s not a blast either.
Sara Colangelo’s Worth tells the true story of a man tasked with the impossible – assigning a price tag to the thousands of individuals who perished on 09/11. That’s Ken Feinberg (Michael Keaton), an expert numbers cruncher. He’s a former Chief of Staff to Senator Ted Kennedy, but his own political skills are lacking. Feinberg approaches the assignment of creating the Victims Compensation Fund with a lawyerly precision that doesn’t match the emotional toll and anger of its survivors. That’s until he begins to listen.
In the wake of that horrific Tuesday, the Congress passed the measure which allows Feinberg to get to work. The kicker is that 80% of respondents must agree to sign up and therefore waive the ability to sue the airlines and they must do so within two years. That’s a tall order as Feinberg and his team, including Amy Ryan’s second in command, pore through each case. How much should the family of the cleaning crew at the World Trade Center be paid as compared to the CEO’s widow in the corner office? Can there ever be a satisfactory formula for an unprecedented situation?
The screenplay from Max Borenstein gives us specific case files to ponder. There’s the wife (Laura Benanti) of a firefighter who had a secret family. The long-time partner of a man whose parents won’t acknowledge their relationship (therefore cutting him out as a beneficiary). And there’s the widowed Charles Wolf (Stanley Tucci) and the blog he starts that points out the unfairness and inequities of the Fund. Wolf’s civil interactions with Feinberg (and the fine performances of Keaton and Tucci) provide the film’s most involving dramatic moments. They occasionally punctuate a somewhat repetitive watch.
I got the feeling that a documentary where the actual survivors talked about their own decision making process with the Fund would have been far more worthy of attention. This dramatized version does a commendable job setting up the premise and is so-so at the execution. President Bush phones Feinberg to josh him that no one would want this job. The lawyer must navigate opaque meetings with Attorney General John Ashcroft (Victor Slezak) and airline lobbyists whose bottom line is not to go bankrupt. Yet most of the running time centers on Feinberg’s growing sympathy for those left behind. Each case is important, but the script does little to elevate any of them beyond a different kind of formulaic treatment.
Blogger’s Note (08/18): I am revising my PAW Patrol: The Movie estimate up from $7.9M to $10.8M.
The dog days of summer continues with four new offerings in the marketplace and they could all fall short of the second weekend of Free Guy with Ryan Reynolds. Speaking of dogs, we have PAW Patrol: The Movie as well as three more adult oriented offerings: Hugh Jackman’s sci-fi thriller Reminiscence, action flick The Protege with Michael Keaton, Maggie Q, and Samuel L. Jackson and horror pic The Night House. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I don’t have any of the features from the fresh quartet (not a sequel in the bunch!) topping $10 million. That means Free Guy, after a better than anticipated bow, should manage to remain #1 in its sophomore outing. I’m assuming it will dip in the low to mid 50s like Jungle Cruise did a couple of weeks back.
As for those newcomers, the one I’m most conflicted about is PAW Patrol: The Movie. It certainly has a built-in fan base of youngsters who may drag their parents to see it. Rather unexpectedly, it’s generating quite decent reviews. However, my hunch is that some families may wait for it to be on the small screen and I’m projecting third place.
That’s behind Reminiscence which could approach double digits. Jackman’s latest is also available on HBO Max. It will be competing for eyeballs with The Protege, which I have pegged for mid single digits (if anything, I think it could go lower). In fact, it could be in a battle for fifth with Jungle Cruise in its fourth weekend.
The Night House comes at the tale end of a season packed with horror titles and I believe it’s bound to get lost in the shuffle. My meager $3.1 million estimate leaves it well outside the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
2. PAW Patrol: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
3. Reminiscence
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Jungle Cruise
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. The Protege
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
Box Office Results (August 13-15)
Friday the 13th wasn’t so unlucky for Ryan Reynolds and Free Guy. The Fox (and therefore Disney) property opened on the higher end of forecasts with $28.3 million, topping my $21.3 million estimate. With an A Cinemascore grade, audiences liked what they saw and it sounds as if a sequel will happen. The near $30 million start might have been called slightly disappointing in different times. All things considered, it’s rather strong.
Horror sequel (I’ve been saying that a lot lately) Don’t Breathe 2 debuted with $10.6 million, just under my $11.2 million take. That’s miles away from the $26 million that the 2016 predecessor took in, but generally in line with most predictions. At a cost of just $15 million, it should turn a nice profit for Sony Pictures.
Jungle Cruise was third in its third weekend with $9.1 million – right on pace with my $8.9 million estimate. The Disney adventure is at $82 million with $100 million in its sights.
The Aretha Franklin biopic Respect with Jennifer Hudson also hit its anticipated mark in fourth with $8.8 million. That’s a tad ahead of my $8.5 million call. Reviews were only so-so though its lead could be on her way to a Best Actress nomination.
And, finally, the bad news for The Suicide Squad continued. Following a disastrous opening, the reboot/sequel plunged an equally disturbing 71% to fifth with $7.4 million. I was more optimistic at $10.1 million. The ten-day tally is a lowly $42 million.
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