Oscar Predictions: Ray Gunn

Since Best Animated Feature became a category at the Oscars in 2001, Brad Bird is 3 for 3 in terms of nominations and 2 for 3 in terms of wins. His tenure with Disney/Pixar led to victories for 2004’s The Incredibles and 2007’s Ratatouille while 2018’s Incredibles 2 was in contention but fell short to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. His debut, 1999’s The Iron Giant, would have certainly been up had the competition existed.

Bird’s latest is Ray Gunn and it has premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its December 4th limited theatrical release and December 18th Netflix bow. Said to be the filmmaker’s dream project, the sci-fi noir mystery features the voices of Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Waits, Matt Berry, Bobby Cannavale, Michelle Rodriguez, Matt Jones, Aasif Mandvi, Alan Tudyk, and Kathryn Hunter.

Word-of-mouth across the pond gives Gunn a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. A closer look at the write-ups reveal plenty of recommendations with reservations. Bird’s first effort in nearly a decade should have enough goodwill to get in the Animated Feature quintet, but I’m skeptical that a win narrative exists. There’s another London premiere that does have that narrative and its Oscar Prediction post is imminent.

Netflix will campaign the song “Too Muck to Ask” (performed by Johansson in the pic) in Original Song and Michael Giacchino is behind the score. Both are worth considering if they manage to make their respective shortlists though I’ve yet to seriously consider either for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie Review

For fans of Breaking Bad (of which I certainly am), one lingering question was whether Jesse Pinkman (Aaron Paul) completed his emotional joyride after being freed from captivity in the title vehicle. El Camino answers it in a manner which never feels entirely needed, but with enough nostalgic merit to keep it from feeling superfluous. It’s been six years since the brilliant AMC show closed up shop with Walter White (Bryan Cranston) finally succumbing to the dangers of his career path. Jesse’s fate was more uncertain as his former teacher and meth mentor allowed him to escape.

Camino picks up immediately after the series finale. As you’ll recall, Jesse had been held prisoner by some Aryan dealers who kept him in an underground cage. During those final episodes of Bad, Paul perfected the wounded puppy cadence befitting his circumstances. That continues here as Jesse must adjust to his liberation. Being the lone survivor of the finale’s massacre makes him the most wanted man in New Mexico.

The Netflix pic volleys back and forth between his need to find a brand new life and flashbacks allowing favorite characters to return. Considering Mr. White and Cranston’s legendary performance, it’s no surprise to see him. Some cameos are more surprising and humorous and poignant. The most effective in my view is Todd, which affords Jesse Plemons more screen time to flesh out his calmly psychopathic creation. Robert Forster returns as a fixer who specializes in giving criminals fresh leases on life. His portion runs a close second in entertainment value. Sadly, the veteran character actor passed away on the day of the film’s premiere.

Does El Camino ever approach the most potent moments from its source material? Not really, but Paul gives a terrific performance with his tragic antihero. Vince Gilligan, the show’s creator, returns to write and direct. He was meticulous about his acclaimed series and this continuation doesn’t feel cheap. It’s a deadly and deadpan world that we loved and it feels pretty darn good to soak it back in for a couple hours.

*** (out of four)

Brightburn Box Office Prediction

In a year filled with superhero tales, Brightburn adds a horror element when it opens over Memorial Day weekend. The low budget pic is a Gunn family affair with James (director of the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise) producing with a screenplay from his brothers Mark and Brian. David Yarovesky directs. The nifty trailer suggests a Superman style origin tale if Clark Kent turned out to be a homicidal maniac. Elizabeth Banks, David Denman, Jackson A. Dunn, Matt Jones, and Meredith Hagner star.

As mentioned, Brightburn comes with a tiny price tag estimated at $7 million. Therefore it should have no trouble turning a tidy profit. That said, a gross in the teens or above could be wishful thinking for Sony Pictures. The marketing campaign hasn’t been near as robust as other titles featuring superheroes (good or evil) and the film isn’t based on known source material.

I’ll say the forecasts of high single digits to low double digits for its four-day holiday premiere is where this lands.

Brightburn opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my Aladdin prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/14/aladdin-box-office-prediction/

For my Booksmart prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/17/booksmart-box-office-prediction/