Premiering at the Telluride Film Festival, James Mangold’s FordvFerrari sped into the Oscar conversation this evening. The film recounts the story of the 1966 24 Hours of Le Mans race with a cast headlined by Matt Damon and Christian Bale. Costars include Tracy Letts, Jon Bernthal, and Josh Lucas.
Early reaction suggests Ford is fast moving and a serious crowd pleaser with significant box office potential. There still seems to be uncertainty as to where Damon and Bale will be placed when it comes to lead or supporting. Both could go lead. If so, reviews suggest Bale is a likely nominee over Damon. If Bale goes supporting, he could provide competition for front runner Brad Pitt in OnceUponaTimeinHollywood or whoever else rises up. The performance of Letts is also garnering raves. He could factor in if both stars are slated for Best Actor.
Apart from the performers, Ford stands a real shot at Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and multiple tech nods. This would be Mangold’s first recognition for his direction after a 2017 nod for his Logan script and helming Reese Witherspoon to a gold statue in WalktheLine. Bottom line: Ferrari has the make of a real contender in awards season. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My run through of the first 2019 Oscar predictions on the blog continues with Best Actor! If you happened to miss my calls on the lead Actress and supporting races, you can peruse them here:
As mentioned before, these are the pre festival projections. When dozens of anticipated titles begin to screen starting later this week, expect everything to come into a considerably sharper focus. In my Supporting Actor entry, I pointed out that there is uncertainty as to whether Tom Hanks will be placed there or in lead for ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood. I am listing the two time winner as a possibility in both.
In 2018, these initial estimates for Actor yielded 2 out of the eventual 5 nominees – Bradley Cooper for AStarIsBorn and Willem Dafoe in AtEternity’sGate. In my ten other possibilities, I correctly named Christian Bale in Vice and eventual winner Rami Malek for BohemianRhapsody.
As the summer season winds down, the movie industry and this blog’s attention will soon turn to the Oscar race. And if you think it’s too early to do that, consider that less than a month from now – an avalanche of Academy hopefuls will be unveiled at film festivals. Toronto, Venice, Telluride, and the New York festivals are on deck. The programmers behind those events have already released the names of many of the pictures premiering. Here are some of the pictures wishing for Oscar glory that are hitting the circuit:
ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood
Tom Hanks is iconic children’s host Mr. Rogers in director Marielle Heller’s follow-up to last year’s CanYouEverForgiveMe?, which nabbed nods for Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant. Premiering at Toronto.
AdAstra
James Gray has made multiple critical darlings, but has yet to pop up on the awards circuit radar screen. Could this sci fi drama with Brad Pitt and Tommy Lee Jones change that? Premiering at Venice.
AnOfficerandaSpy
It will need serious acclaim to overcome the baggage that comes from its maker Roman Polanski, but this historical thriller will attempt to do so in Venice.
DolemiteIsMyName
Prior to its anticipated Netflix launch, Craig Brewer’s biopic of comedian Rudy Ray Moore portrayed by legendary comic Eddie Murphy will bow at Toronto.
Ema
Pablo Larrain has had his pics No and Jackie attract awards nods and this Chilean drama hopes to follow suit. Premiering at Venice.
FordvFerrari
Matt Damon and Christian Bale star in James Mangold’s 1960s set tale of the flashy automotive industry. Premiering at Toronto.
Harriet
Cynthia Erica was a breakout in last year’s Widows. This year she has an Academy baity role as abolitionist Harriet Tubman in this historical epic from Kasi Lemmons. Premiering at Toronto.
JojoRabbit
This concoction from Taika Waititi is set during WWII with a dark comedic premise finding a young child with an imaginary friend who happens to be Hitler. The filmmaker himself plays Hitler. Scarlett Johansson and Sam Rockwell are among the cast.
Joker
Heath Ledger won a posthumous gold statue as the comic book villain in TheDarkKnight. Joaquin Phoenix will attempt the same here. Premiering at Venice.
Judy
It’s been awhile since Renee Zellweger had a role receiving awards buzz. This biopic of Judy Garland could alter that. Premiering at Toronto.
JustMercy
This drama about a falsely accused prisoner features Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Foxx, and Brie Larson. Premiering at Toronto.
KnivesOut
Rian Johnson’s murder mystery has a sprawling cast of hopefuls including Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Jamie Lee Curtis, Toni Collette, and Michael Shannon. Premiering at Toronto.
MarriageStory
Noah Baumbach is a favorite of the critical community. This drama is headlined by Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver and hits Venice and other fests before its Netflix premiere.
TheGoldfinch
Brooklyn director John Crowley adapts this drama based on a well-known 2013 novel. The cast includes Nicole Kidman and Oakes Fegley. Premiering at Toronto.
TheIrishman
Rightly kicking off the New York Festival, Martin Scorsese directs this gangster saga starring Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci.
TheLaundromat
Oscar winner Steven Soderbergh directs this dramatic thriller with Meryl Streep, Gary Oldman, and Antonio Banderas. Premiering at Venice.
ThePersonalHistoryofDavidCopperfield
Lion nominee Dev Patel is the Charles Dickens character with a supporting cast including Tilda Swinton and Hugh Laurie. Premiering at Toronto.
TheTwoPopes
Jonathan Pryce is Pope Francis and Anthony Hopkins is Pope Benedict in this Netflix effort from director Fernando Meirelles. Premiering at Toronto.
Followers of this blog know that I’ll do Oscar Watch posts on each of these and many others as they screen in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!
My look back at the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present arrives at Best Actor today! If you missed my posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, you can find them here:
As with those previous entries, I am picking the three least surprising winners of the last 28 years, along with the three biggest upsets. Additionally, you’ll see my personal picks for strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Jeremy Irons, ReversalofFortune
1991 – Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
1993 – Tom Hanks, Philadelphia
1994 – Tom Hanks, ForrestGump
1995 – Nicolas Cage, LeavingLasVegas
1996 – Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1997 – Jack Nicholson, AsGoodAsItGets
1998 – Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
1999 – Kevin Spacey, AmericanBeauty
2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator
2001 – Denzel Washington, TrainingDay
2002 – Adrien Brody, ThePianist
2003 – Sean Penn, MysticRiver
2004 – Jamie Foxx, Ray
2005 – Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2006 – Forest Whitaker, TheLastKingofScotland
2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis, ThereWillBeBlood
2008 – Sean Penn, Milk
2009 – Jeff Bridges, CrazyHeart
2010 – Colin Firth, TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – Jean Dujardin, TheArtist
2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2013 – Matthew McConaughey, DallasBuyersClub
2014 – Eddie Redmayne, TheTheoryofEverything
2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
2016 – Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
2017 – Gary Oldman, DarkestHour
Let’s begin with the three that I’m deeming as the non-surprise winners. Whittling this down to that number was a challenge. The double wins by Hanks and Penn and even last year’s winner Oldman could’ve easily been named here, too. Here goes…
3. Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
The legendary thespian was 0 for 6 when it came to nominations and wins entering 1992. He picked up his 7th and 8th nods that year with his supporting role in GlengarryGlenRoss and lead role as a blind former colonel in this Martin Brest directed drama. By Oscar night, it was clear he was finally going to make that trip to the podium.
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
Like Pacino, DiCaprio had been an Academy bridesmaid before… four times. His fifth nod for TheRevenant guaranteed he’d finally be a winner against weak competition (more on that below).
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
I could have named the Method actor’s victory in 2007 for ThereWillBeBlood as well, but his win five years later as the nation’s 16th President edges it out. From the moment the Steven Spielberg project was announced, Day-Lewis was the odds on favorite and it never changed.
Now – my selections for the upsets:
3. Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
While it might seem an obvious win nearly 30 years later, Nick Nolte’s work in ThePrinceofTides had nabbed him the Golden Globe. Additionally, there was some controversy about Sir Anthony’s inclusion in the lead race due to his approximate 16 minutes of screen time. This is truly evidence of a performance so towering that it couldn’t be ignored.
2. Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
The Italian director/writer/actor was an underdog against competition that included Nick Nolte (once again) for Affliction and Ian McKellen in GodsandMonsters. Mr. Benigni seemed a bit shocked himself when his name was called, as he famously bounded exuberantly to the stage.
1. Adrien Brody, ThePianist
The smart money in 2002 was with Jack Nicholson in AboutSchmidt or Daniel Day-Lewis in GangsofNewYork. Brody’s win was pretty shocking, as was the giant smooch he planted on presenter Halle Berry.
When it comes to overall fields, I’m going recent history with both. For strongest, I’ll give it to 2012. That’s the year Day-Lewis won for Lincoln. All other nominees were rock solid as well with Bradley Cooper (SilverLiningsPlaybook), Hugh Jackman (LesMiserables), Joaquin Phoenix (TheMaster), and Denzel Washington (Flight).
For weakest, I’m picking 2015. This is the aforementioned year of DiCaprio’s overdue win. The rest of the field, however, was a bit lacking. It consisted of Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (TheMartian), Michael Fassbender (SteveJobs), and Eddie Redmayne (TheDanishGirl).
And there’s your Actor look back, folks! Keep an eye out for Best Picture soon as the final post in this series…
A franchise is reborn with a twist when Ocean’s 8 lands in theaters next weekend. It’s been over a decade since the Ocean’s 11-13 heist sagas with George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and a bunch of other famous faces being directed by Steven Soderbergh. Each entry made a little less at the box office as they went along, but they all opened between $35-$40 million. Soderbergh just produces here with Gary Ross taking over the directorial duties. He’s had hits such as Seabiscuit and The Hunger Games, but his most recent was the Matthew McConaughey flop Free State of Jones.
The aforementioned twist is that it’s the ladies getting in on the thievery this time around. Sandra Bullock plays the sister of Clooney’s character from the first trilogy and she’s the mastermind of a crew that includes Cate Blanchett, Mindy Kaling, Sarah Paulson, Rihanna, Helena Bonham Carter, and Awkwafina. Anne Hathaway is the target of the score with James Corden, Dakota Fanning, and host of celebrity cameos included among the cast.
Ocean’s 8 looks to bring in a sizable female audience and their male counterparts may not mind coming along for the ride. The high-profile cast, especially Bullock, certainly doesn’t hurt and this stands a real shot at having the highest Ocean’s debut of all. That’s not guaranteed as I could see the low bar being in the low 30s. That would fall under the previous low of $36 million by Ocean’s Thirteen in 2007.
However, I’m leaning more towards a high 30s to possibly mid 40s roll out for Sandra and company. I’ll estimate it somewhere in between.
Ocean’s 8 opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
Director Alexander Payne and his writing partner Jim Taylor enter new genre territory with Downsizing, but it’s filled with the themes found in their previous efforts. A central character searching for meaning in life, marital strife, and classism are on display. Unlike prior features, science fiction elements and a bigger budget are in the mix. This is a story loaded with intriguing prospects that doesn’t lead to a totally rewarding whole.
A prologue shows the advent of a monumental discovery by Norwegian scientists – the ability to shrink humans to only five inches tall. The reasoning to do it is to save the Earth by significantly reducing pollution and overpopulation. Not all citizens who choose to go through the procedure are hardcore environmentalists. There’s also the added bonus that downsizing is a financial boon. Every dollar in big world translates to about a grand in the smaller one.
This is the primary reason why occupational therapist Paul (Matt Damon) and his wife Audrey (Kristin Wiig) choose their new path. The Omaha couple agree to downsize and populate the colony of Leisureland. In Nebraska, they’re scraping by. They will be millionaires post op. A surprise happens on the way to the procedure. Paul goes through with it, but Audrey backs out and leaves him.
Lonely Paul must adjust to his tiny new surroundings and life. His eventual divorce agreement causes him to trade his Leisureland mansion for an apartment (albeit a pretty nice one). Up to this point, Downsizing is pretty nifty. The leadup and explanations of how this new world works are fascinating. There’s some prejudice involved with the full size humans meeting those about to become small. Should they get full voting rights, for instance? We also discover there’s nefarious governments that forcibly shrink their dissidents.
Further exploration of themes like these could have made a potentially rich experience. Downsizing goes a different direction. Paul’s upstairs neighbor is a party animal played with expected gusto by Christoph Waltz. It’s through this freewheeling character that Paul meets Ngoc Lan (Hong Chau), a Vietnamese political activist who was punished by that government. She’s an amputee and cleaning lady with a heart of gold. Ngoc Lan takes Paul to the slums of Leisureland where he begins to medically assist its poor residents. He also begins to fall for his companion.
The picture, at this juncture, largely abandons its sci fi leanings and concentrates on issues of self-worth, love, and political themes. Of course, all these things have been present in many great science fiction efforts. However, the tone of Downsizing is a shifty one. There’s moments of satire that aren’t biting enough and an earnestness that can come off cloying. That latter description could sometimes apply to Damon’s work. Payne has directed a number of actors to Oscar nominations. His lead here displays the same syrupy conviction in which he once bought a zoo. Chau is a different story. She creates a character whose backstory might have been really rewarding if shown onscreen. Unfortunately, Ngoc Lan eventually becomes just the love interest to the blander protagonist.
Payne and Taylor deserve a degree of credit for crafting this odd concoction. There’s some original thoughts here and some sequences are truly impressive, especially the downsizing procedure itself. That said, the emotional payoff the filmmakers are reaching for never quite reached me. There are moments in AboutSchmidt, Sideways, TheDescendants and Nebraska that did so more often and with an appreciated higher level of subtlety. So while I admire Downsizing for some big ideas, the overall impact is smaller.
Director Alexander Payne’s latest Downsizing hits screens next Friday for a holiday release. The science fiction dramedy features Matt Damon, Kristin Wiig, Jason Sudeikis, Christoph Waltz, and Hong Chau.
Payne has seen his last three films – Sideways, The Descendants, Nebraska – all nab Best Picture nominations. Downsizing was once seen as an Oscar contender until it premiered at the Venice Film Festival months ago to mixed reviews (it stands at a muted 64% on Rotten Tomatoes). In fact, its only Academy chatter is focused on costar Chau, who could manage a Supporting Actress nod.
The near complete lack of awards chatter has muted the buzz for this project. The pic also has plenty of competition for its intended adult audience, including The Greatest Showman and various other genuine Oscar hopefuls.
Add that up and I feel Downsizing will experience a debut in the low double digits or teens. That would a bit under another Damon flick from an acclaimed director released over Christmas from six years ago, Cameron Crowe’s We Bought a Zoo.
Downsizing opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:
Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!
And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.
There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.
Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.
Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 3)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)
14. Detroit (PR: 12)
15. Get Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Downsizing
The Greatest Showman
The Big Sick
All the Money in the World
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonderstruck
Molly’s Game
Wind River
Coco
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)
9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Hostiles
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Algee Smith, Detroit
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Diane Kruger, In the Fade
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)
10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World
Will Poulter, Detroit
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Patrick Stewart, Logan
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger
Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Sarah Paulson, The Post
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)
9. Stronger (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Thank You for Your Service
First, They Killed My Father
The Death of Stalin
Wonder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
7. Get Out (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: 6)
9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Downsizing
Wind River
Battle of the Sexes
Coco
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)
2. In the Fade
3. First, They Killed My Father
4. Happy End
5. Foxtrot
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square
7. A Fantastic Woman
8. Loveless
9. The Divine Order
10. Tom of Finland
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children
5. Ferdinand
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie
7. Cars 3
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
9. Despicable Me 3
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. City of Ghosts
2. Risk
3. Icarus
4. Cries from Syria
5. Jane
Other Possibilities:
6. Step
7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
8. Dina
9. One of Us
10. Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Darkest Hour
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Post
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Call Me by Your Name
10. Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. Mudbound
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Wonder Wheel
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Darkest Hour
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. The Greatest Showman
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Wonder Wheel
10. Call My by Your Name
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Darkest Hour
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Victoria and Abdul
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Beguiled
8. Wonder Wheel
9. The Post
10. Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
4. The Greatest Showman
5. I, Tonya
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. Thor: Ragnarok
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. It
10. Wonderstruck
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. Wonder Woman
9. Thor: Ragnarok
10. Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Wonder Woman
5. Transformers: The Last Knight
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water
7. Coco
8. Detroit
9. Baby Driver
10. War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver
7. Detroit
8. Transformers: The Last Knight
9. Darkest Hour
10. Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonderstruck
5. Coco
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
7. The Post
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit
8. “The Promise” from The Promise
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman
And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
11 Nominations
Darkest Hour
10 Nominations
Dunkirk
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread
4 Nominations
Mudbound, The Greatest Showman
3 Nominations
The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast
1 Nomination
Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker
My weekly Thursday predictions are in for the eight major categories at the Oscars. As October closes out, we will see some changes beginning next week as November rolls in. This will be the final week of listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the other seven races. Starting next week, the Best Picture possibilities will go down to 15 and 10 in the other categories. Additionally, on November 2, I’ll be bringing in the other categories related to feature films.
Over the past week, we’ve seen first trailers hit for I, Tonya and Phantom Thread, both threats to get multiple nods. The Phantom trailer and subsequent news also introduced us to Vicky Krieps, who apparently will be campaigned for in an already packed lead actress race. I’m still on The Florida Project bandwagon and it moves from 9th to 7th this week in BP possibilities. Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird also makes a big jump in the rankings.
The film Chappaquiddick was moved to 2018 and that now removes the (long shot) possibility that Jason Clarke could have received a Best Actor nod portraying Senator Ted Kennedy.
Yet the biggest development of the week is Warner Bros announcement that Clint Eastwood’s The15:17toParis will be opening in February 2018. There’s still a chance it could receive a limited late year push for Oscar consideration, but for now it’s out of contention.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 9)
8. Mudbound (PR: 7)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Lady Bird (PR: 18)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 15)
12. Detroit (PR: 10)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
14. Get Out (PR: 20)
15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 11)
16. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 14)
17. Downsizing (PR: 16)
18. The Greatest Showman (PR: 17)
19. The Big Sick (PR: 22)
20. All the Money in the World (PR: 19)
21. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 23)
22. Wonderstruck (PR: 21)
23. Molly’s Game (PR: 25)
24. Wind River (PR: 24)
25. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The15:17toParis
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 7)
9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
10. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 15)
11. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
12. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 10)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Richard Linklater, LastFlagFlying (PR: 15)
15. Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
7. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 7)
11. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 11)
12. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 13)
13. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 12)
14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: 15)
15. Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (moved to 2018)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
7. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)
8. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
10. Vicky Krieps, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 11)
12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 10)
13. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)
14. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 14)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)
11. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 10)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)
13. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 11)
14. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 14)
15. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 9)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 11)
12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 12)
14. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 13)
15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Stronger (PR: 11)
11. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
12. Thank You for Your Service (PR: Not Ranked)
13. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 15)
14. The Death of Stalin (PR: 13)
15. Wonder (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The 15:17 to Paris
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 3)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
8. Get Out (PR: 8)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 10)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)
11. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
12. Downsizing (PR: 11)
13. Wind River (PR: 13)
14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Wonder Wheel
And there you have it! My final October predictions. I’ll be back next week with all the categories for the first time…
My weekly round of Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories brings a couple of updates from the past week:
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel premiered at the New York Film Festival and the mixed reaction has caused it to roll all the way out of the top 25 possibilities for Best Picture. Kate Winslet still stands a decent shot at Best Actress in a very crowded race, but her nomination seems a bit less assured to me now. The film also takes a hit in the Original Screenplay derby.
It’s looking like The Leisure Seeker with Donald Sutherland will not be released until 2018. I’ve had the actor on the lower rungs of possibility for Best Actor, but until I see confirmation of an awards qualifying end of year release date, he’s out for now.
And with that, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
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