November 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update II (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.

**Blogger’s Update (11/07): It turns out Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is indeed staying in theaters and I’m putting it in second with an anticipated drop in the mid 30s

The Marvel Cinematic Universe should have no trouble hitting #1 again with The Marvels, but the premiere is expected to be well on the low end of the now 33 pics in the franchise. We also have the faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem and the wide expansion of Oscar hopeful The Holdovers out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

The Marvels Box Office Prediction

Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

As of now, I have The Marvels having the third lowest MCU opening in its decade and a half run. It could possibly have the smallest of them all if it debuts below the $55 million that The Incredible Hulk (the second feature of the bunch) started with in 2008. **Keep an eye on this post through Thursday to see if my projection dwindles.

Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, should slide to second. Its sophomore frame saw a gigantic plummet (more on that below). The third weekend shouldn’t be as dramatic a fall, but the 60-65% range is certainly possible.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, per a previous announcement, is allegedly finished with its box office run after amassing $166 million domestically and easily setting concert pic records. That’s why you won’t find it in my projected five. If that dynamic changes, I’d place it in third or probably even second.

The 3-5 spots, therefore, should be a mix of Killers of the Flower Moon, Journey to Bethlehem, and The Holdovers and you could make decent arguments for the order. I’ve got it close.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Marvels

Predicted Gross: $46.3 million

2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

3. Five Nights at Freddy’s

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

4. Journey to Bethlehem

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

6. The Holdovers

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (November 3-5)

November began with a whimper with the worst frame of 2023 thus far. As you may recall, this was the weekend Dune: Part Two was supposed to come out before its pushback to spring 2024.

That left Five Nights at Freddy’s in first place despite a gargantuan 76% drop to $19 million. I was more generous at $27.6 million. Even with its clearly front loaded business, the PG-13 horror flick (which is also available on Peacock) has delivered $113 million in its first ten days of release.

With scant competition in the marketplace, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour eased just 12% for second place with $13.5 million. That remarkable hold placed it well above my $8.3 million take. As mentioned, it has finished (?) its run at $166 million as streamers mount a bidding war for the rights.

Killers of the Flower Moon also held better than I figured for third in its third weekend with $6.8 million. I went with $5.8 million. The Oscar contender has taken in $52 million.

Priscilla performed respectably in fourth with $5 million, besting my $3.9 million call. The biopic had a similar per theater average to Ms. Swift’s fourth frame gross. The performance represents earnings at the top end of its anticipated range.

I incorrectly didn’t make a call for Radical, the well-reviewed dramedy with Eugenio Derbez. It rounded out the top five with $2.6 million on just over 400 screens. That gave it the highest average of any movie in the top ten.

My #5 pick was After Death at $3.2 million. Yet it was all the way down in 8th (behind The Exorcist: Believer and PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie) with $2 million after its 60% slide.

Finally, I had the Meg Ryan rom com What Happens Later (a phrase not used in many years) making $1.7 million. It came in slightly below that at $1.5 million for ninth position.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Marvels Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.

After a series of delays dating back to summer 2022, the MCU’s 33rd adventure arrives November 10th with The Marvels. Nia DaCosta, best known for her 2021 Candyman remake, directs. Captain Marvel Brie Larson leads a cast that includes Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani, Zawe Ashton, Park Seo-joon, and Samuel L. Jackson.

Beginning with Spider-Man: No Way Home, we’ve seen a run of six MCU pics that opened to $100 million or over. It certainly helped that each one of them was a sequel in a well-established sub franchise including Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and Black Panther.

The nine digit premiere streak should end here and the debut may look more like a trilogy of titles from 2021. Black Widow started with $80 million in the summer of that year and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings did $75 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of its Labor Day weekend bow. Finally, Eternals managed $71 million in November.

Two years later, I’m not confident The Marvels even matches those grosses. Other than Captain Marvel and Jackson’s Nick Fury, the other characters are relatively unknown compared to various Avengers counterparts. There’s always the risk of superhero overload and we’ve seen our share of letdowns in the genre in 2023 (The Flash, Blue Beetle, Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Yes, those were all DCU, but the subpar earnings could apply here.

I’m projecting The Marvels will have the lowest MCU beginning since Ant-Man ($57 million) back in 2015. That would be a rather significant letdown for Marvel in their third feature from Phase Five and the third smallest opening overall of the 33 picture series.

The Marvels opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million

For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:

Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

For my The Holdovers prediction, click here:

The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Review

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 marches to the beat of the writer-director James Gunn’s carefully curated playlist of the mawkish blended with the macabre. The actual needle drops are plentiful from Radiohead to Florence and the Machine and Earth, Wind & Fire and Spacehog (there’s actually CG swine in space in case you were wondering). Storyline A inflicts enough grotesque violence on cute furry creatures that I anticipated Sarah McLachlan piping up with a syrupy ballad, but it isn’t to be.

Team captain Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) is far from over the death of Gamora (Zoe Saldaña) in Avengers: Infinity War as we begin. Since it’s the MCU, she didn’t perish in the traditional way. The character was back as a different version of herself and with amnesia of her primary franchise’s activities in Avengers: Endgame. Now the leader of the thieving Ravagers, Gamora reunites with the old gang when Rocket (voiced by Bradley Cooper) is attacked and left critically wounded. As a reminder, the team also consists of Gamora’s half sister Nebula (Karen Gillan), charmingly dense warrior Drax (Dave Bautista), empath Mantis (Pom Klementieff), and Bob Ross favorite Groot with Vin Diesel grumbling his limited dialogue.

The highly intelligent raccoon Rocket is given the full flashback origin treatment in the third volume. His demented creator is Orgocorp CEO High Evolutionary (a scenery devouring Chukwudi Iwuji) who specializes in developing hybrid creatures and discarding them if they don’t meet his standards. Spoiler: the vast majority do not. Rocket is one of his most prized subjects from his dozens of batches at Orgocorp. It is only at the corporate headquarters that his life can be saved so the Guardians set course.

Along the way there’s stops at other galaxies including the bizarro Counter-Earth with its populace of human/animal hybrids. That extended sequence is an example of Gunn at his best with the grimly comedic gumbo. It works well on that planet and in plenty of other moments. Rocket’s backstory does manage to pull the heartstrings fairly successfully.

All other subplots are given the short shrift. Drax and Mantis have a few humorous bits though they’re truly secondary characters this time (as is Groot). Even the presence of Gamora, while giving the gifted Saldaña basically a fresh character to play, takes a backseat to Rocket’s launch in the plot. I’ll note that it’s taken this long to mention Adam Warlock (Will Poulter). He was teased at the end of volume 2 as a nemesis to the title heroes. Adam is responsible for Rocket’s wounds and then the script doesn’t really know what the heck to do with him. He could’ve been written out the script entirely and it would’ve made zero difference. Pratt’s work as Peter Quill/Star-Lord is still a treat. It’s an MCU casting decision that ranks almost as high as Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man. He manages not to be overshadowed by his omnivorous costar.

Of the various sub-franchises in the Marvel Cinematic Universe containing three entries or more, Guardians is surprisingly the first where quality flows in order of release. That’s not to say the quality is missing. It’s that the mix has more lowlights than the previous two and definitely runs longer than necessary. Gunn still manages to make the sentimental and sometimes sadistic concoction worthwhile and it’s a cut above most MCU material post Endgame.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 touches down in multiplexes on May 5th to kick off the summer season. The 32nd feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe arrives six years after the second Guardians. James Gunn is back in the director’s seat for the third time with Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan, Vin Diesel, and Bradley Cooper among those reprising their roles in real and voiceover form.

This franchise in the MCU has caught the attention of awards voters. 2014’s original nabbed two nominations in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects. It lost to The Grand Budapest Hotel and Interstellar, respectively. 2017’s sequel made it in for Visual Effects and came up short to Blade Runner 2049.

Reviews for the third go-round are mostly positive (though several critics say it tries to pack in too much). The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 80%. That’s behind the 92% achieved by part 1 and 85% of its follow-up. That said, Vol. 3 could certainly (and probably will) be the 3rd Guardians pic and 14th overall MCU title to get make the VE five. Makeup and Hairstyling is definitely on the table. If so and it would be the third MCU pic to contend there after the first Guardians and last year’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Anything beyond inclusion in those two races would be a surprise. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction

Nearly three months after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania couldn’t quite match expectations at the box office, another MCU threequel hopes to exceed them. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arrives six years after the second volume with James Gunn returning to direct (he has since moved to the DCEU as their head creative honcho). Back in physical and voiceover form are Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan, Pom Klementieff, Vin Diesel, Bradley Cooper, Sean Gunn, Elizabeth Debcki, and Sylvester Stallone. Will Poulter, Chukwudi Iwuji, and Maria Bakalova are newbies to the franchise. This is the second entry in Marvel’s Phase Five and 32nd feature overall.

2014’s Guardians was a critical and commercial smash that made $94 million for its start with a $333 million eventual domestic take. The goodwill was evident when Vol. 2 kicked off summer 2017 with a $146 million premiere and $389 million overall.

Early buzz is that tracking for the third adventure has been underwhelming. It should certainly surpass the $106 million that Quantumania opened at. Matching the second Guardian‘s haul (or the $144 million that Thor: Love and Thunder made last July) might be more challenging.

If this fails to match what its predecessor accomplished, that would be considered a letdown. I am projecting it will by around $20 million and therefore continue the MCU’s shaky 2023.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opening weekend prediction: $125.3 million

For my Love Again prediction, click here:

Love Again Box Office Prediction

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Review

According to lore, there are glorious stories of Bill Murray randomly showing up places and elevating an evening’s festivities to a new level. Heck, there’s even a documentary about it. The legend shows up in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and his small part does nothing to level it up. In fact, it seems needlessly random. The Marvel Cinematic Universe has now entered Phase Five. It launches in troubling fashion. This is the 31st MCU pic and I’d rank it #31.

2015’s Ant-Man is one of the weakest links in the Marvel chain, but there were glimpses of the nifty and humorous little heist pic it wanted to be. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Rudd has an effortless charm as the small time crook turned Avenger. 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp was an improvement (in the MCU, the follow-ups often do exceed the quality of their predecessors). The third time is far from the charm.

The bulk of the action is set in the Quantum Realm – a gaudy setting that is far from low-key. Before we get there, Rudd’s Scott Lang is on a book tour and generally enjoying the fame garnered from being an Avenger. His home life with Hope/Wasp (Evangeline Lilly) and now 18-year-old daughter Cassie (Kathryn Newton) appears tranquil. Original title heroes and Hope’s parents Hank (Michael Douglas) and Janet (Michelle Pfeiffer) join the domestic bliss. However, cracks big and small emerge. Cassie seems frustrated by her dad’s coasting off of his previous laurels. The cracks under the ground are of more concern when her scientific experiments land the extended family in the subatomic Realm.

Janet spent 30 years (as revealed in the previous movies) in that particular universe. It’s revealed here that she engaged in far more activities than earlier thought. One includes a hinted at tryst with Bill Murray’s character and his superfluous cameo. Of more consequence is her relationship with Kang (Jonathan Majors), who was stuck with her underground for many years. Janet found a way out while he remained. That’s a plus since his full name is Kang the Conqueror and he destroys planets across multiverses as he sees fit. The villain Darren Cross (Corey Stoll) from the first Ant-Man, now shrunk to a smaller size with a gigantic head, partners with our new main baddie. That results in some horrible CG (I think on purpose) in a sequel that employs other garish effects that are not meant to be funny.

The balance of comic sensibilities that worked well in portions of Ant-Man and especially the sequel collides with the ultra serious introduction of Kang. Hour one is sluggish. Hour two finds our heroes defending characters in the Quantum Realm that we’re never properly introduced to. While Pfeiffer’s role is fattened, sometimes Rudd and definitely Lilly feel like supporting players. Newton, taking over the role from Abby Ryder Fortson, struggles with her one-note character. The strongest performance belongs to Majors, but his menacing and seemingly multi-layered nemesis feels out of place in Ant-Man and Ant-Family’s stomping grounds. Kang might turn out to be a worthy villain to the MCU’s Avengers in future installments. The jury is out for now.

Phase Four and the start of Five have been wobbly. Eternals, Thor: Love and Thunder, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever have been disappointments and Quantumania reaches the lowest level yet. Underwhelming movies in the MCU are starting to feel like groundhog day and audiences might stop randomly showing up if that persists.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

The MCU hopes for enlarged returns for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania when its debuts Friday. This is the third film in the franchise with Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly as the title heroes with Jonathan Majors making his debut as villainous Kang.

31 pictures into the cinematic universe that began with Iron Man (2008), Marvel’s multi-billion grossing series has seen its share of Oscar nominations. This is particularly true in Visual Effects where 13 features have been up and none have yet to win (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is unlikely to break that stat next month with competition from Avatar: The Way of Water).

None of the MCU’s previous nods belong to Quantumania predecessors Ant-Man (2015) or Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018). Based on reviews today, that stat should also stay intact. While Majors is picking up decent reviews, the pic is currently at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s the second lowest score of any MCU title (Eternals is 47%). By comparison, the original Ant-Man hit 83% and the sequel had 87%. Bottom line: the chances for any awards attention is quite small. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

As the grieving mother of an iconic Marvel superhero, Angela Bassett is first up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actress quintet.

The Case for Angela Bassett:

Nearly thirty years after receiving a Best Actress nomination as Tina Turner in What’s Love Got to Do with It, Bassett becomes the first performer to land a mention for an MCU pic (in its 30th feature). Her work in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has already given her Golden Globe and Critics Choice statues. BAFTA and SAG could follow suit as she hasn’t missed any of the significant precursors. She’s also a highly respected thespian and voters may feel it’s time to honor her.

The Case Against Angela Bassett:

This would be the only performance from a comic book tale to win where the actor isn’t playing the Joker. In other words, despite the prevalence of the genre in the 21st century, this is a rare occurrence. While she’s run the table thus far, a SAG or BAFTA victory for another contestant (say Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin) would interrupt the sweep chatter.

Previous Nominations:

What’s Love Got to Do with It (Actress, 1993)

The Verdict:

In the supporting fields, I’m not not quite as confident in Bassett’s coronation as I am with Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor. That said, she is definitely in the best position for the crown.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first Supporting Actor write-up and that’s Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin!

For post covering the other Supporting Actress hopefuls, click here:

Oscars: The Case of Hong Chau in The Whale

Oscars: The Case of Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Oscars: The Case of Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Oscars: The Case of Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania hopes to score commanding grosses over the long President’s Day weekend starting February 17th. The 31st entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and third in this particular franchise features Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly reprising their roles as the title heroes. Michelle Pfeiffer and Michael Douglas are back with Jonathan Majors being introduced as villain Kang the Conqueror. Peyton Reed (who helmed the first two) is back directing. Other cast members include Kathryn Newton, David Dastmalchian, William Jackson Harper, Katy O’Brian, and Bill Murray.

The initial movie in the MCU’s Phase Five (with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels up next), Ant-Man looks to expand on the opening earnings of its predecessors. In the summer of 2015, Ant-Man made $57 million for its start (the second smallest MCU debut with The Incredible Hulk being lowest at $55 million). It ended up with $180 million domestically. Three years later, Ant-Man and the Wasp reached higher with $75 million and an eventual stateside tally of $216 million.

When it comes to the MCU, sequels typically outperform their originals (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was a recent exception to the rule). Thor: Love and Thunder, on the other hand, built upon its three predecessors. Quantumania should follow that trend.

As far as President’s Day weekend, it shouldn’t come close to approaching the record. That was five years ago with Black Panther when it scored $202 million from Friday to Sunday and $242 million when factoring Monday. The runner-up is 2016’s Deadpool with respective three and four-day takes of $132 million and $152 million. Third place belongs to 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey ($85 million Friday to Sunday, $93 million four-day).

This should manage a third place all-time haul. I’ll say the three-day falls a tad short of $100 million and just shy of $110 million with Monday’s inclusion.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opening weekend prediction: $96.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $109.1 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey prediction, click here:

Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey Box Office Prediction

Best Picture 2018: The Final Five

We have reached 2018 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-17, they are linked at the bottom of the post.

2018 is a tricky year to winnow down. In fact, all 8 nominees have strong cases to make the final five. Only one thing is for sure. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book is one of the five considering it won Best Picture. It stands as one of the more surprising (and derided) victors in recent years. The race relations drama went an impressive 3/5 on its nominations – taking Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay and missing Actor (Viggo Mortensen) and Film Editing.

So what of the other seven hopefuls? Here’s my speculation:

Black Panther

The only MCU flick (and for that matter comic book adaptation) to score a BP nom was Ryan Coogler’s phenomenon with Chadwick Boseman as the title character. Its seven nominations included three wins for Score, Production Design, and Costume Design.