When this blog started in the fall of 2012, Matthew McConaughey was coming off a solid two-year period which saw him headline the surprise legal drama hit TheLincolnLawyer and attract rave reviews for his supporting role in MagicMike.
Yet 2013 elevated the actor to a whole new stratosphere. His work in the acclaimed indie pic Mud garnered Oscar chatter. He had a memorable cameo alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in Martin Scorsese’s TheWolfofWallStreet. It ironically turned out that McConaughey’s scene partner in that film was his biggest competition for an Oscar. DallasBuyersClub would see the Texan playing Ron Woodruff, a real life AIDS patient in the 1980s. McConaughey’s work was praised and he took home the gold statue. His luck streak continued into the following year starring in Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, which stands as his largest grossing live-action feature.
Since then? Well, let’s just say the McConaissance has been interrupted. Or borrowing his most famous catchphrase from 1993’s DazedandConfused – it’s not Alright Alright.
This weekend, his stoner comedy TheBeachBum tanked at the box office. Its approximate $1.8 million opening is the worst release of the actor’s career. And it follows a pattern of now seven live-action duds (he did provide voice work in the animated pics Sing and KuboandtheTwoStrings). And to give a modicum of credit, he did skip the subpar sequel MagicMikeXXL.
At least Nicolas Cage had a string of action hits after his Oscar before delving into VOD territory. McConaughey hasn’t been so fortunate and he quickly needs a critical or commercial success to redeem things. His list of recent material is an unsuccessful and largely forgettable one. In three years, we’ve had:
FreeStateofJones, his summer 2016 Civil War drama that took in $20 million domestically against a $50 million budget. Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 46%.
TheSeaofTrees from later that summer. The drama wasn’t even released wide and didn’t make a million dollars (13% RT score).
True life crime drama Gold in January 2017. 42% RT. $14 million gross stateside.
TheDarkTower in summer 2017. The critically maligned Stephen King adaptation had a 16% RT rating and immediately ended the possibility of a franchise with earnings of $50 million.
Another based on actual events crime drama from last fall – WhiteBoyRick. 58% RT and $24 million gross.
Noir thriller Serenity from earlier this year. Barely promoted, it made an embarrassing $8 million total with a 23% RT score.
And now TheBeachBum, which won’t reach $10 million domestically either. It’s time for McConaughey’s people to find him some better stuff. His most memorable appearances lately have been in car commercials. If they can’t manage to do so, there’s always 2013.
Just so there’s zero confusion, it’s not MartinScorsese’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral debuting next weekend. No, this would be the latest Tyler Perry effort from the writer/director/star and it’s said to be the final pic with the Madea moniker.
Originally slated to open last fall, Funeral looks to bring in Perry’s consistent crowd one more time. It’s likely to succeed. Let’s take a trip down Madea memory lane with the premiere weekends of each one featuring that name:
Madea’sFamilyReunion (2006) – $30 million
MadeaGoestoJail (2009) – $41 million
Madea’sBigHappyFamily (2011) – $25 million
Madea’sWitnessProtection (2012) – $25 million
AMadeaChristmas (2013) – $16 million
Boo! AMadeaHalloween (2016) – $28 million
Boo2! AMadeaHalloween (2017) – $21 million
Christmas is a bit of an outlier since it came out in the bustling holiday frame when titles often open somewhat low and leg out. A common theme with this franchise is front loaded first weekends that frequently represent nearly half the overall domestic gross.
I see no reason why Funeral wouldn’t top $20 million out of the gate and I’ll put it in range with what Boo2! achieved, going a tad higher.
Todd Thatcher’s A TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million
As one year turns to the next in short order, it got me thinking. What are some examples of actors and directors who had remarkable calendar frames over the past few decades? The guidelines are pretty simple – the individual must have had two (and in a couple of cases, three or more) pictures that made an impact during 19(fill in the blank) or 20(fill in the blank).
And wouldn’t you know it? My ruminations quickly turned into a lengthy list that I’ve paired down to a top 25. Let’s call this Best Year’s Ever and count down from #25 to #1!
25. Channing Tatum (2012)
It was a busy year for the performer to say the least. Tatum was in Steven Soderbergh’s Haywire, but three major roles made him the star he is today. There was the hit romance TheVow, hit comedy 21JumpStreet, and his signature and semi-autobiographical title role in the summer sleeper MagicMike (also from Mr. Soderbergh).
24. John Travolta (1996)
Two years following his major comeback in PulpFiction and a year following his Golden Globe nominated lead in GetShorty, Travolta’s hot streak continued with three hits: John Woo’s action thriller BrokenArrow and fantasy dramas Phenomenon and Michael.
23. Clint Eastwood (1971)
The last two months of 1971 were fruitful for the legend. In November, he made his directorial debut with the well-reviewed psychological thriller PlayMistyforMe. This began a career of dozens of behind the camera works, including Best Picture winners Unforgiven and MillionDollarBaby. In December, Eastwood starred as DirtyHarry which spawned his lucky cop franchise.
22. Sigourney Weaver (1988)
Weaver won two Golden Globes 30 years ago – Best Actress (Drama) for GorillasintheMist and Supporting Actress for WorkingGirl. She would be nominated for two Oscars as well, but come up short. All part of a remarkable decade that included Ghostbusters and Aliens.
21. Joe Pesci (1990)
Pesci won an Oscar for his unforgettable supporting work in Martin Scorsese’s GoodFellas. That same fall, he was a burglar terrorizing Macaulay Culkin in the holiday classic HomeAlone.
20. Kevin Spacey (1995)
Current scandals aside, there’s no denying Spacey was the movie villain of 1995. He won an Academy Award as (spoiler alert!) Keyser Soze in TheUsualSuspects and as a demented serial killer in Seven. Earlier in the year, he costarred with Dustin Hoffman and Morgan Freeman in Outbreak and headlined the critically approved indie comedy SwimmingwithSharks.
19. Nicolas Cage (1997)
LeavingLasVegas awarded Cage his Oscar two years prior. By the summer of 1997, he was a full-fledged action hero with two blockbusters in the same month: ConAir and Face/Off.
18. Will Ferrell (2003)
Ferrell’s transformation from SNL favorite to movie star happened here with the spring’s OldSchool as Frank the Tank and in the winter as Buddy in Elf.
17. Morgan Freeman (1989)
The nation’s Narrator-in-Chief had a trio of significant roles nearly three decades ago – his Oscar nominated chauffeur in the Best Picture winner DrivingMissDaisy, a dedicated and stern principal in LeanonMe, and a Civil War officer in Glory.
16. Steven Soderbergh (2000)
The prolific filmmaker made two Best Picture nominees with ErinBrockovich and Traffic (he would win Best Director for the latter). Both surpassed the century mark at the box office and Julia Roberts won Best Actress for Brockovich and Benicio del Toro took Supporting Actor in Traffic.
15. Halle Berry (2001)
Ms. Berry had a revealing role in the summer action fest Swordfish. She then became the first (and thus far only) African-American to win Best Actress for Monster’sBall. This was all sandwiched between X–Men hits.
14. Hugh Jackman (2017)
Berry’s X–Men cast mate Jackman retired his Wolverine character to critical and audience admiration with Logan in the spring. At the end of the year, his musical TheGreatestShowman was an unexpected smash.
13. Leonardo DiCaprio (2002)
Five years after Titanic, the jury was still out as to whether DiCaprio’s leading man status would hold up. His roles in Martin Scorsese’s GangsofNewYork and Steven Spielberg’s CatchMeIfYouCan left little doubt. He’s been one of Hollywood’s most dependable stars since.
12. Francis Ford Coppola (1974)
In 1972, Coppola made perhaps the greatest American film of all time with TheGodfather. Two years later, its sequel came with enormous expectations and exceeded them. Like part one, it won Best Picture. As if that weren’t enough, he made another Picture nominee in ‘74 with the Gene Hackman surveillance thriller TheConversation.
11. Michael Douglas (1987)
His signature role as greedy tycoon Gordon Gekko in Oliver Stone’s WallStreet won him an Oscar and gave him one of the most famous cinematic speeches ever. He also lit up the screen in the blockbuster thriller FatalAttraction, which was the year’s second largest grosser.
10. Julia Roberts (1999)
She started the decade with a smash star making turn in PrettyWoman. Julia Roberts ended it with two romantic comedy summer $100 million plus earners: NottingHill with Hugh Grant and RunawayBride (which reunited her with Pretty costar Richard Gere). She’d win her Oscar the next year for ErinBrockovich.
9. Tom Cruise (1996)
1986 wasn’t too shabby either with TopGun and TheColorofMoney. Yet it’s a decade later that serves as Cruise’s year with the franchise starter Mission: Impossible in the summer and Cameron Crowe’s JerryMaguire, which earned Cruise a Golden Globe award and an Oscar nod. They were the third and fourth biggest hits of the year, respectively.
8. Sandra Bullock (2013)
Nearly two decades after her breakout role in Speed, Bullock had a banner 2013 alongside Melissa McCarthy in the summer comedy TheHeat and her Oscar nominated turn as a stranded astronaut in the fall’s Gravity.
7. Sylvester Stallone (1985)
Sly was the undisputed champion of the box office (not to mention sequels and Roman numerals) in 1985, notching the second and third top hits of the year behind BacktotheFuture. They were for his two signature characters with Rambo: FirstBloodPartII and RockyIV.
6. Robert Downey Jr. (2008)
A decade after all the wrong kind of headlines for his drug addiction, Downey Jr. pulled off perhaps the most impressive comeback in movie history. 2008 saw him as Tony Stark in IronMan, the film that kicked off the MCU in grand fashion. Later that summer came Ben Stiller’s TropicThunder, which earned Downey a rare Oscar nod for a comedic performance.
5. Tom Hanks (1993)
There’s more than one year to consider for Hanks… 1995 (Apollo13, ToyStory) comes to mind. Yet 1993 saw him with Meg Ryan in the now classic SleeplessinSeattle and winning an Oscar in Philadelphia as a lawyer diagnosed with AIDS. His status as a romantic and dramatic lead was solidified in a matter of months. A consecutive Academy Award followed in 1994 for ForrestGump.
4. Mel Brooks (1974)
The director managed to make two of the most beloved comedies of all time in one year… BlazingSaddles and YoungFrankenstein. The two features combined contain some of the funniest scenes ever filmed.
3. Jennifer Lawrence (2012)
Already an Oscar nominee two years prior for Winter’sBone, Lawrence’s road to superstardom was paved in 2012. In March came TheHungerGames, the year’s third top earner that spawned three sequels. In December came SilverLiningsPlaybook, where she won Best Actress.
2. Jim Carrey (1994)
In 1993, Carrey was known as a great cast member of Fox’s groundbreaking sketch show “In Living Color”. By the end of 1994, he was the most bankable comedic star in America as AceVentura: PetDetective, TheMask, and DumbandDumber all hit screens.
1. Steven Spielberg (1993)
In a list filled with lots of choices, the #1 selection was rather easy. The highest grossing filmmaker of all time’s 1993 was astonishing. Dino tale JurassicPark in the summer was a marvel technical achievement that began a franchise. At the time of its release, it became the largest grosser in history with the top opening weekend yet seen. Six months later, Holocaust epic Schindler’sList won seven Academy Awards (including Picture and for Spielberg’s direction).
I hope your New Year is your best yet, readers! Have a happy one…
Today begins a new blog series where I’m looking back at five of the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present: the four acting races and Best Picture. This is essentially the time period where I’ve closely watched and analyzed. My charge? Picking the three largest upsets in each said category and the three least surprising winners… a film or performer where it truly would have been a shock if they didn’t emerge victorious.
We begin with Best Supporting Actress and this is one in which there have been some genuine upsets over the past quarter century plus. Unlike some other races we’ll get to later, it was not a challenge to pick three unexpected winners.
The other agenda item here is I’m picking my personal selections for strongest and weakest overall field among the five nominees in the acting derby’s and five-ten for Best Picture.
For starters, here’s the list of women that won gold statues in the supporting race from 1990 to now:
1990 – Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost
1991 – Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing
1992 – Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
1993 – Anna Paquin, ThePiano
1994 – Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
1995 – Mira Sorvino, MightyAphrodite
1996 – Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
1997 – Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential
1998 – Judi Dench, ShakespeareinLove
1999 – Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
2000 – Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
2001 – Jennifer Connelly, ABeautifulMind
2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
2003 – Renee Zellweger, ColdMountain
2004 – Cate Blanchett, TheAviator
2005 – Rachel Weisz, TheConstantGardner
2006 – Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2007 – Tilda Swinton, MichaelClayton
2008 – Penelope Cruz, VickyChristinaBarcelona
2009 – Mo’Nique, Precious
2010 – Melissa Leo, TheFighter
2011 – Octavia Spencer, TheHelp
2012 – Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
2013 – Lupita Nyong’o, 12YearsaSlave
2014 – Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2015 – Alicia Vikander, TheDanishGirl
2016 – Viola Davis, Fences
2017 – Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I’ll begin with the least surprising winners. Truthfully, there are plenty of selections (and will be in each race) to pick from here. It’s normal procedure for the front runner to actually win. Here’s three that did just that:
3. Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
Of the 28 recipients to choose from, note that 3 of them were under the direction of Woody Allen. None were surprise winners. That’s most evident with Wiest’s showcase work as an aging diva here. Her win here came just eight years following her Oscar winning role in another Allen pic, HannahandHerSisters.
2. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Fans of the Broadway play this is based upon knew Ms. Hudson could have a legitimate breakthrough part here. She nailed it and her win was never in much doubt.
1. Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
Similar to Hudson’s victory, Hathaway’s casting as Fantine and her “I Dreamed a Dream” dramatic solo made her the odds-on favorite from the moment the project was announced. That never changed.
Now we get to the upsets and there were four to choose from. I could easily include Anna Paquin in ThePiano, who became the second youngest winner when she beat out favorite Winona Ryder for TheAgeofInnocence. Here’s 3 I rank as even more surprising:
3. Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
Harden had won no significant precursors and Kate Hudson was expected to have her name called for AlmostFamous. She wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG.
2. Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
While the film itself was the anticipated winner for Picture (which it did), the Oscars were expected to select the legendary Lauren Bacall for her work in Barbra Streisand’s TheMirrorHasTwoFaces. Yet it was Binoche’s performance that was unexpectedly honored.
1. Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
For starters, comedic roles are rarely nominated and wins are even more unheard of. Tomei was a newcomer in a picture that wasn’t a factor in any other category. Her competition was a list of venerable actresses: Judy Davis (HusbandsandWives), Joan Plowright (EnchantedApril), Vanessa Redgrave (HowardsEnd), and Miranda Richardson (Damages). The victory here was so shocking that conspiracy theories emerged that presenter Jack Palance had accidentally read the wrong name. That’s been debunked, but Tomei’s trip to the stage remains one of Oscar’s largest jaw droppers.
As for the fields, I’m going with 1991 for the weakest link in the chain. I probably would have given the award to Juliette Lewis in CapeFear. However, the group was not particularly strong:
Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing (Winner)
Diane Ladd, RamblingRose
Juliette Lewis, CapeFear
Kate Nelligan, ThePrinceofTides
Jessica Tandy, FriedGreenTomatoes
For the strongest field overall, I went with 2004 when Cate Blanchett won for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s TheAviator. The other nominees:
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, HotelRwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer
And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up soon…
Paul Schrader’s First Reformed premiered at the Venice Film Festival last fall and it opens domestically in limited fashion tomorrow. The drama casts Ethan Hawke as a pastor grieving the death of his son in Iraq who becomes politically active in various matters. Costars include Amanda Seyfried and Cedric the Entertainer (who goes by Cedric Kyles in this particular case). Reviews out of Italy were encouraging and as more critical notices have come out in recent days, the picture now stands at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Schrader has had a decades long career that includes serving as screenwriter for classics like Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver and Raging Bull and directing features including American Gigolo, Light Sleeper, and Affliction. Based on the buzz prior to its release tomorrow, Reformed stands as one of the filmmaker’s most acclaimed works.
Could Academy voters take notice? Distributor A24 certainly has it work cut out to keep it fresh in the minds of voters later this year. That said, praise has been effusive for Mr. Hawke and the studio could mount a strong campaign for him. If so, it would mark the actor’s second nomination after receiving a Supporting Actor nod in 2001 for Training Day.
A film focusing on a meticulous and eccentric legend who’s bedded scores of women would seem to be right up Warren Beatty’s alley, but Rules Don’t Apply is a rather big letdown for the director’s first effort in nearly two decades. It’s a passion project for Mr. Beatty that partially focuses on the life of reclusive aviation and movie making billionaire Howard Hughes. Unlike the Martin Scorsese/Leonardo DiCaprio biopic The Aviator, however, Rules isn’t nearly as concerned with historical accuracy and is as much an old-fashioned Hollywood romance.
Beatty plays Hughes circa 1958-1964, a time where his OCD and reliance on pharmaceutical relief had reached massive levels. He’s still running RKO Pictures and flying girls in from all over the country for screen tests. One such prospect is Marla (Lily Collins), a devout Baptist from Virginia who flies into La La Land with her equally proper mother (Beatty’s spouse Annette Bening). She’s never had a drink, never “gone all the way” (as is the common term in this screenplay), and certainly never met a character like Mr. Hughes. Frank (Alden Ehrenreich) is one of Hughes’s many chauffeurs who’s actually yet to meet the man himself. He’s tasked with driving Marla around and they soon begin a courtship, even though Frank is engaged to his childhood sweetheart.
Further complications arise when Hughes (who strictly forbids such interaction between his many employees) gets to know Marla better. The screenplay (by Beatty and his longtime collaborator Bo Goldman) juggles the romance with some of Howard’s business and government dealings as his abnormal behavior continues to increase. We do not see the grotesque and totally shut off character that DiCaprio showed us a dozen years ago in his Oscar nominated role. Rules is much lighter stuff and feels considerably less consequential.
Some welcome comedic hey is made of the many people who wait on Hughes hand and foot, including Matthew Broderick’s assistant and Candice Bergen’s secretary. There’s many familiar faces who pop up in smaller roles (most of them likely just wanted to work with Beatty) and they include Alec Baldwin, Ed Harris, Martin Sheen, and Oliver Platt.
Part of the problem is that while Collins and Ehrenreich are perfectly fine in their performances, their chemistry is adequate at best. A bigger issue is that Rules feels a bit all over the map in plot and tone. The arc of Howard’s disintegration into madness is an odd mix of humor and drama that never gels despite Beatty’s best efforts. It’s also hard to ignore that he’s about 20 years older than Hughes at this particular point in his life, but if anyone can pull that off…
For a director who’s known to be incredibly particular, this one contains only fleeting moments that you’ll remember. The rest, sadly, don’t apply.
Well, here we are folks! After four months of (almost) weekly columns predicting the nominees and dozens of individualized Oscar Watch posts, the Academy Award nominations will be officially announced on Tuesday, January 24th around 8:30AM Eastern time. These are my final predictions. I’ve pontificated all year on who and what these nominees might be, so we’ll keep this simple. I’m listing my predicted nominees in each race as well as a first and second alternative. On Tuesday evening, I’ll have a post up recounting how I did.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
First Alternate: Martin Scorsese, Silence
Second Alternate: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
First Alternate: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Joel Edgerton, Loving
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
First Alternate: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Second Alternate: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Original Screenplay
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: The Lobster
Second Alternate: Toni Erdmann
Best Animated Feature
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Zootopia
First Alternate: The Red Turtle
Second Alternate: The Little Prince
Best Documentary Feature
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
First Alternate: Gleason
Second Alternate: The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
The King’s Choice
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
First Alternate: My Life as a Zucchini
Second Alternate: It’s Only the End of the World
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
First Alternate: Silence
Second Alternate: Love & Friendship
Best Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hell or High Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond
First Alternate: A Man Called Ove
Second Alternate: Suicide Squad
Best Original Score
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Jackie
Second Alternate: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Original Song
“Audition” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
First Alternate: “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: “Faith” from Sing
Best Production Design
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Second Alternate: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Sully
Second Alternate: The Jungle Book
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: Deadpool
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: The BFG
That gives yours truly the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
10 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hell or High Water, Jackie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Captain Fantastic, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
1 Nomination
Elle, I, Daniel Blake, Finding Dory, Kubo and the Two Strings, My Life as a Zucchini, Zootopia, Cameraperson, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, The King’s Choice, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann, Allied, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sing Street, Deepwater Horizon, Sully, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book
And there you have it – my FINAL (yikes) Oscar predictions! Check back on Tuesday for the postmortem.
Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…
In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).
On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.
Here’s how I see it all right now…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 7)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Fences (PR: 4)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Silence (PR: 6)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Jackie (PR: 14)
15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)
18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Paterson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Fences(PR: 3)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. Silence (PR: 5)
10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Zootopia (PR: 9)
10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)
7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)
8. Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
April and the Extraordinary World
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. Gleason (PR: 4)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. 13th (PR: 3)
5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)
7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 10)
10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)
7. Tanna (PR: 8)
8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
9. Paradise (PR: 7)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
7. Silence (PR: 6)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Live by Night (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Alice Through the Looking Glass
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
4. Arrival (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Silence (PR: 5)
8. Lion (PR: 7)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Deadpool (PR: 3)
3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jackie (PR: 5)
8. The BFG (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hidden Figures
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
9. Allied (PR: 6)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
5. Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 6)
7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Allied (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Captain America: Civil War
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
9. Deadpool (PR: 10)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Allied
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 5)
7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)
9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion, Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie
2 Nominations
Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.
Blogger’s Update: Silence prediction being revised down based on reported theater count on just 750 screens.
One of Martin Scorsese’s passion projects finally rolls out in wide release next weekend when Silence debuts. The historical epic was shot entirely in Taiwan and tells the story of two Jesuit priests in Japan during the 17th century. Andrew Garfield (fresh off his well received turn in Hacksaw Ridge), Adam Driver, Liam Neeson, Ciaran Hinds, and Issey Ogata (garnering some Oscar chatter) star.
Speaking of Oscar chatter, Silence has been the subject of it. However, its inclusion in the Best Picture race is not assured. If that chatter had been louder, it may have helped box office performance. Additionally, the pic is debuting on a packed weekend in which there’s plenty of other adult fare competing for attention, including Patriots Day and Live by Night.
The best hope for Silence may be a host of Academy Awards nods that will be announced nearly two weeks after its release. That could propel it to steady grosses over awards season. As for its opening, I believe low to mid single digits is the likely scenario.
We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.
Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Fences (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Silence (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
13. Sully (PR: 12)
14. Jackie (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 9)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Zootopia (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eye in the Sky
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
3. 13th (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 5)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
10. Weiner (PR: 9)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)
7. Paradise (PR: 8)
8. Tanna (PR: 7)
9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 4)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 8)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)
7. Lion (PR: 5)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
9. Sully (PR: 7)
10. Jackie (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Deadpool (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. The BFG (PR: 9)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Moana
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)
4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)
7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 4)
5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Deadpool
Doctor Strange
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: 7)
7. Allied (PR: 8)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
10. Deadpool (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. The BFG (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)
That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Moonlight, Arrival
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.
That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!
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