The National Board of Review, a group of cinephiles out of New York City, bestows its best of every year in early December. Their selections certainly don’t forecast who and what the Academy will eventually name. They do, like many critics organizations, give us potential hints as to who and what’s hot and not as Oscar voters ready their ballots.
For 2022, the NBR went with the year’s most popular picture in Top Gun: Maverick. Named Best Film, Maverick is expected to land a spot in the Academy’s BP ten. Picking it to win is risky business. Of the last 10 NBR victors, only one went on to win BP at the big dance – 2018’s Green Book (and that was a surprise). The last three recipients were The Irishman, Da 5 Bloods, and Licorice Pizza. On the other hand, one three NBR winning films in the 21st century didn’t score an Oscar BP nomination: 2000’s Quills, 2014’s A Most Violent Year, and the aforementioned Bloods from 2020.
The directing prize went to Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. He’s ranked #1 in my Oscar picks and has been for quite some time. If he takes Oscar, he’d be the first NBR victor to do so since 2006 when Martin Scorsese won for The Departed.
The matches don’t improve much in the acting derbies. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) was crowned Best Actress. Three of the past 10 winners achieved Oscar glory: Julianne Moore for Still Alice, Brie Larson in Room, and Renee Zellweger as Judy. On a side note, a Cate Blanchett Tàr prize here would’ve been the easy bet. That picture was ignored by NBR even in their selections for the 10 greatest films not named Top Gun: Maverick (more on that below).
Colin Farrell nabbed another lead Actor honor for The Banshees of Inisherin. Two of the previous 10 NBR gentleman made a podium trip at the Oscars: Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea and Will Smith last year for King Richard (remember that?). Farrell is emerging as a major threat as is Austin Butler for Elvis (which received no love from this board). Along with Brendan Fraser in The Whale (who needs some critic groups love awfully soon), they make up a three-way tussle for Best Actor.
Janelle Monae is your Best Supporting Actress as her stock is rising. Yet only two of the past 10 winners match Oscar with Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk and Youn Yuh-Jung for Minari. Brad Pitt is the only Supporting Actor NBR/Academy match of the last decade for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Brendan Gleeson in The Bansees of Inisherin will try and join that small club as he emerged over frontrunner Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere.
Original Screenplay went to Banshees while All Quiet on the Western Front was a surprise recipient in Adapted Screenplay over Women Talking (which is widely favored to catch the Academy’s attention).
Other pics making their mark today were Marcel the Shell with Shoes On for Animated Feature, Close in International Feature Film, and Sr. for Documentary Feature. All are expected to vie for consideration at the Oscars.
Finally, the NBR chooses 10 additional features on their best of list. This year they were Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, RRR, Till, The Woman King, and Women Talking. In addition to Tár and Elvis – you also won’t find The Whale or Babylon or Triangle of Sadness among the picks. Same with She Said and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
From 2019-2021, the winning pictures and ten other NBR picks equated to between 5-7 of the Academy’s BP contenders. Right now, I have six of these 2022 films in my Oscar 10: Maverick, Avatar, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, and Women Talking. That corresponds to what usually occurs between NBR and Oscar.
All in all, a good day for Maverick and company. That said – if you think it is now cruising to Best Picture, history suggests otherwise.
After a couple years of major controversy, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s big shindig is back on your television screens with the 80th Golden Globe Awards. The ceremony honoring the year’s best in film and TV returns to NBC on January 10th and the nominations are out on Monday, December 12th.
Readers of my blog are aware that I update my Oscar predictions every week to two weeks. With the Globes, it’s just one shot. As an aside, I don’t forecast the small screen races.
There are 14 categories to consider. As you may recall, the Globes split Drama and Comedy/Musical for Picture and the lead acting derbies. This is not the case with director or supporting. Furthermore, this ceremony has a sole Screenplay race while the Academy differentiates between original and adapted works.
Let’s get to it! For each competition, I’m also giving you my alternate. On Monday, I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts on the nominations and how I performed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Menu
Alternate: Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Todd Field, Tár
Best Actress – Drama
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor – Drama
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate: Hugh Jackman, The Son
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Julia Roberts, Ticket to Paradise
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto
Alternate: Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Best Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Women Talking
Alternate: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Animated Motion Picture
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate: My Father’s Dragon
Best Foreign Language Motion Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Decision to Leave
RRR
Alternate: Saint Omer
Best Original Score
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Song
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Alternate: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
And that means I’m projecting the following number of mentions for these pictures:
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
5 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Elvis
3 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Menu, Tár
2 Nominations
RRR, Turning Red, The Whale
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, A Man Called Otto, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Till, The Woman King
Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.
While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.
That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.
Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)
10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Bones and All
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Menu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (+1)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (E)
9. Strange World (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)
7. EO (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joyland (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Quiet Girl
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. Descendant (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sr. (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Retrograde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Last Flight Home
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emancipation
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Living (PR: 7) (E)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elvis (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 4) (-3)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. X (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Amsterdam (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
She Said
White Noise
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Stand Up” from Till
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King
The New York Film Critics Circle have made their selections for the year’s best and that kicks off a flurry of regional awards coming our way in the days and weeks ahead. This particular critics group (as is the case with most) isn’t much of a barometer on who and what will win. It is, however, a decent glimpse of who and what could contend.
Todd Field’s Tár and Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin each earned two honors. The former was named Best Film with Cate Blanchett taking the Actress award. Eight of the last 10 NYFCC victors in Film went on to receive a BP Oscar nomination. Yet none of those movies won the big prize from the Academy. The last one that did was 2011’s The Artist. And that make sense here. Tár appears highly likely to make the BP cut though it isn’t much of a threat to take the gold. Five of the past 10 Actress recipients were nominated with only one winner. Who was that winner? Cate Blanchett for 2013’s Blue Jasmine. She could certainly do so again. This won’t be the only critics branch to name her.
Colin Farrell was Best Actor for Banshees and After Yang. Like Actress, half of the previous ten New York honorees made the Oscar quintet with two winners – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea). Farrell appears to be locked in a tight three-way race with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis). Every precursor like this helps a little. Banshees also won Best Screenplay. That’s another Academy three-way battle in Original Screenplay with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans.
The supporting fields are a bit more predictive as far as Academy matches. Eight of 10 Supporting Actor NYFCC takers were at the Oscars. That includes four winners in Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight). We could see another match with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Expect to hear his name a lot.
Supporting Actress, on the contrary, was more of a surprise. Keke Palmer’s work in Nope topped all rivals in a wide open field that’s hard to peg for Oscar prognosticating. 7 of 10 winners here made the big dance including the victorious Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Laura Dern (Marriage Story). I’ve yet to have Palmer in my top ten. I’m starting to wonder if she could get in the mix for her memorable performance in the sci-fi horror tale. I should note that NYFCC named Lupita Nyong’o Best Actress for Peele’s Us from 2019 and she came up short with Oscar voters.
The rest of the categories all showcased viable contenders in their respective competitions. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On picked up Animated Feature and I expect it to get love from the critics. Same with Non-Fiction Film and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (I have it ranked first in Oscar’s Documentary Feature). Poland’s EO was a slightly unexpected choice in Foreign Film over Decision to Leave (which I have pegged as the soft frontrunner for the Academy). Finally, Top Gun: Maverick aced Cinematography and it should get an Oscar nod there for the thrilling aerial camerawork.
Keep coming to the blog for all your awards news and I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up this Sunday!
Two weeks have passed since my previous Oscar predictions and the biggest news is that there’s a new #1 in Best Picture. For quite some time, I’ve had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans in first position. It would still make plenty of sense to keep it there. However, I’ve had a nagging feeling that this frontrunner is vulnerable. And my gut (at the moment) tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once is a major threat for the victory. Stephanie Hsu is back in Supporting Actress for Everything over Carey Mulligan (She Said).
This isn’t the only development in the last 14 days. Damien Chazelle’s eagerly awaited Babylon held screenings. The buzz is wildly mixed, but I still believe it should perform well with nominations.
Another big change in BP is that Avatar: The Way of Water has surfaced in the top 10 (where it’s yet to place before). She Said, which had a very disappointing box office showing this weekend, dips to 11th.
There are changes in Best Actor. For the first time, I’m elevating Tom Cruise to the top five in Best Actor. He does so at the expense of Hugh Jackman in The Son, whose wide release was just delayed to January. That indicates to me that Sony Pictures Classics is losing faith in the pic (which received plenty of negative reviews). They may focus the bulk of their attention on Bill Nighy in Living.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve put Paul Dano back in for The Fabelmans. That means Spielberg’s movie would have the double supporting nominees instead of The Banshees of Inisherin (Barry Keoghan has moved to sixth).
There’s modifications in Animated Feature with Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and My Father’s Dragon entering the quintet and Wendell and Wild and Strange World falling out. Holy Spider is back in International Feature Film to the detriment of Bardo. In Documentary Feature, Fire of Love returns with Last Flight Home out.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-2)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones and All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 6) (+3)
4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Strange World (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lightyear (PR: 9) (E)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. EO (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Klondike
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Thousand Years of Longing
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-4)
8. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Bardo
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (E)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Babylon (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
9 Nominations
Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, The Woman King
We have reached 2017 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-16, they are linked at the bottom of the post.
There were nine nominees for 2017’s competition. If there were 5, we know Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water would have made the quintet. It won BP along with Director, Original Score, and Production Design and received 13 nods total (easily the most of all).
Of the 8 remaining movies, here’s my thoughts on which half is in and which half and is out.
Call Me by Your Name
Luca Guadagnino’s coming-of-age romance was a critical darling that won Adapted Screenplay. It was also up for Actor (Timothee Chalamet) and Original Song. The Academy likely almost nominated Armie Hammer for Supporting Actor and are probably glad they snubbed him.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I struggled with this call. An argument could be made with the Adapted Screenplay victory. However, none of the other four nominees in this category were BP nominees (extraordinarily rare). Call could’ve heard its name up, but I have it sixth or seventh.
Darkest Hour
Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill was a recipe for a Best Actor win and it was up for Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling (another victory), and Costume Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Despite its admirable turn in the tech derbies, this was all about Oldman. The lack of directing, screenplay, and editing noms leave this out. This is the rare occurrence where I’m saying the Best Actor winner’s movie doesn’t get in the BP race.
Dunkirk
Christopher Nolan’s epic WWII tale earned 8 mentions (2nd behind Shape) and won 3 – both Sound races and Film Editing. Nolan also scored his first and only directing nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I don’t think it’s 100% considering other contenders, but this probably had enough support and was generally considered Nolan’s strongest awards pic in his filmography.
Get Out
Jordan Peele’s heralded horror flick was a box office smash. Its other three nominations were Director, Actor (Daniel Kaluuya), and Original Screenplay where it beat out Shape of Water.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Like Dunkirk, not a guarantee but that screenplay statue (over the BP recipient and two other contenders) make me think so.
Lady Bird
Greta Gerwig’s coming-of-age dramedy nabbed 5 inclusions with Director, Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Supporting Actress (Laurie Metcalf), and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Broken record… not a slam dunk considering it went 0 for 5. Yet it took the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy (over Get Out) and was highly acclaimed.
Phantom Thread
Paul Thomas Anderson’s sartorial drama was an overachiever on nomination morning with six including Director, Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville), Score, and Costume Design (the sole win).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I was tempted. It really did perform better than anticipated. I could also see it just missing considering the competition. It might have been sixth.
The Post
Steven Spielberg’s Watergate era drama received only one other nom for Meryl Streep in Actress.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and this is by far the easiest projection. Spielberg’s magic probably got it in the mix, but I suspect it was ninth.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A player in 7 categories, Martin McDonagh’s pic took home Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell). Woody Harrelson was also up for Supporting Actor in addition to Original Screenplay, Score, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, even with McDonagh missing Director. If for no other reason, I can’t imagine the four acting winners having none of their movies up. That would be the case if you left this off considering Oldman’s Darkest Hour and I, Tonya (where Allison Janney took Supporting Actress) not being in the nine.
If you weren’t keeping score, here’s my projected 2017 five:
Over the past week, I posted deep dives into 6 major categories: Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, you can access them right there:
The numbers for those competitions are reflected below (therefore you won’t see Previous Rankings for them). For every other race, these are projections updated for the first time since October 23rd.
There’s less than two months left in the calendar year! We’re entering crunch time and here’s my state of the races as we sprint to the finish…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Tár
8. The Whale
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. She Said
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front
12. Decision to Leave
13. Avatar: The Way of Water
14. Elvis
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Todd Field, Tár
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
9. Adam Driver, White Noise
10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Claire Foy, Women Talking
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
8. Nina Hoss, Tár
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
10. Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Mark Rylance, Bones & All
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Broker (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones & All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (E)
4. Strange World (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 6) (-2)
9. EO (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Alcarras (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Last Flight Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftershock
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Woman King (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. X (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
10. The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“On My Way” from Marry Me
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. RRR (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (-3)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Women Talking
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, She Said
2 Nominations
Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Last Flight Home, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Strange World, Till, The Woman King, Wendell and Wild
Best Director is on deck for my closeup looks at six major categories at the Oscars. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can find them here:
As I have with the other competitions, let’s see how accurate my estimates were from 2019-21 at the same early November time period. In 2019, I correctly had 4 of the 5 eventual directors: winner Bong Joon-ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), and Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Todd Phillips (Joker) was identified in Other Possibilities. 2020 was a trickier year due to COVID complications and I had 2 of the contenders rightly pegged: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (who won) and David Fincher for Mank. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) was in Other Possibilities while Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) and Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) were not yet in my top ten. Last year, I had 3 of 5 with the victorious Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza). Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) was in Other Possibilities and I didn’t have Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) yet in the mix.
I don’t have Spielberg down as an Other Possibility in 2022. This time around, he could be in line for his third Best Director statue behind 1993’s Schindler’s List and 1998’s Saving Private Ryan. It would mark his ninth overall nom. If he wins, he would become only the fourth filmmaker with three or more victories. John Ford has 4 while Frank Capra and William Wyler have 3.
The last four years have given us a nominee with an International Feature Film contender. In addition to Joon-ho in 2019 and Vinterberg and Hamaguchi the following years, Alfonso Cuaron took the prize in 2018 for Roma. There are two in 2022 that stand the best shot: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave). If you want to be brave and predict an out of nowhere selection (like Vinterberg kinda was in 2020), look to Lukas Dhont (Close) or Jerzy Skolimowski (EO). Maybe even Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Bardo though he faces a tough road due to mixed critical reception.
However, I’m not quite ready to elevate any of them to the forecasted quintet. Damien Chazelle’s Babylon will soon screen prior to its December bow. It has the looks of a contender and he’s in unless the buzz tells me differently in a few days.
I’m also feeling good about the Daniels (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Same goes for Sarah Polley (Women Talking). Both appear to be surefire BP selections and would mark the Academy’s first mentions for them in this race.
As for the fifth spot, there’s plenty of names beyond the aforementioned international auteurs. Todd Field for Tár tops that list with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) not far behind. If Avatar: The Way of Water approaches the reception that the original received, James Cameron could enter the conversation.
If She Said or The Whale pick up even more steam in BP, I wouldn’t discount Maria Schrader or Darren Aronofsky respectively. That same logic applies to Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. I’ve had him in my five previously.
Perhaps the voters will honor the maker of the year’s biggest blockbuster with Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick. The more likely path is a BP nom and a few tech inclusions.
This race can and will evolve over the next couple of months. Here’s the state of the race right now:
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Director Martin McDonagh reunites with his In Bruges leads Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin. The black comedy set a century ago in Ireland expands to approximately 800 screens next weekend after a solid limited debut. Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan costar in McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which garnered six Academy nods.
Since its premiere at the Venice Film Festival, Inisherin has been subject to its own awards chatter (all four actors could get nominations). The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 97%. In 58 venues this past frame, Banshees took in over $500,000 with a per screen average approaching $10,000.
That could bode well for the early November buildout. On the other hand, we’ve seen platform release like Tár and Till struggle mightily as their counts grow. Banshees could have a slightly broader appeal. I’ll say anywhere between $2-3 million is the reasonable guesstimate.
The Banshees of Inisherin opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million
With two months to go for 2022 releases to make their mark with awards voters, it’s a opportune time to assess the six major Oscar races. That would be Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
It begins with Supporting Actor. Over the past couple of years, this has been the category that’s confounded me the most during this juncture in the calendar.
That was a different story three years ago. In late October of 2019, I correctly identified 4 out of the eventual 5 nominees. This included winner Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as well as Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), and Al Pacino (The Irishman). The other nominee – Joe Pesci for The Irishman – was in my #6 spot.
For the unpredictable year that was 2020 (due to constantly shifting release dates because of COVID), I only named 2 of the 5 hopefuls two months out – Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami. I still had eventual victor Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected for lead actor until the studio announced him for supporting.
In 2021, I made a point to say that the Supporting Actor derby was wide open in late October. And that was evidenced in my only identifying 1 of the eventual Supporting Actor quintet in the Halloween time frame – Ciaran Hinds in Belfast. I had Troy Kotsur (CODA), who would take the gold statue, in 10th place. Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) was in first place and he missed out. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), who made the cut, was in 8th place. His costar Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) weren’t listed at all.
Which brings us to 2022 and at this spooky time of year, I would say this competition is up in the air with no obvious frontrunner. 12 months ago, however, I couldn’t have imagined I’d kick off the speculation with this sentence…
The Supporting Actor discussion starts with Ke Huy Quan.
The 51-year-old actor belongs in the mid 80s cinematic Hall of Fame with his turns as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies. His return to acting in Everything Everywhere All at Once has been met with raves. It’s also undeniable that his win would be a heckuva Academy narrative nearly 40 years after his iconic child performances. I’ve had him listed in first place for weeks and that remains.
In four of the last five years, we’ve witnessed double nominees in Supporting Actor. Last year it was the aforementioned Smit-McPhee and Plemons for The Power of the Dog. In 2020, we had the winner Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah and his costar Lakeith Stanfield. 2019’s Irishman double duo was Pacino and Pesci. Five years ago, it was Sam Rockwell (who won) and Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Martin McDonagh directed Billboards and his follow-up is The Banshees of Inisherin. Brendan Gleeson has sat in the #2 position for several prediction posts in a row. He’s a threat to take the prize. I believe his costar Barry Keoghan may also get in.
Banshees is not the only viable option for double nominees. Ke Huy Quan’s Doom maker Steven Spielberg has The Fabelmans. Before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival, we wondered whether Paul Dano or Seth Rogen (or both) would be the likely nominee(s). Post screening, scene (just one scene) stealer Judd Hirsch bubbled up while Rogen’s viability dwindled. Dano’s work is understated and certainly not as flashy as Hirsch’s brief turn. That leads me to put Hirsch in with Dano on the outside looking in. I’ll admit it’s a coin flip.
Damien Chazelle’s Babylon screens for critics in two weeks. There’s a trio of possibilities with Brad Pitt, Jovan Adepo, and Tobey Maguire. I’ve had Pitt in my 5 previously. It’s fair to speculate whether his recent tabloid headlines could hinder him. We’ll know more once reviews roll in.
Ben Whishaw in Women Talking is a trendy selection and for good reason. I’m not completely sold as voters could opt to focus only on his female cast members Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley (and maybe others) in Supporting Actress. Yet it feels wrong to keep him out right now.
You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time the five contenders all came from Best Picture nominees. I’m not wild about the fact that my projections currently do. There’s a few names that could get in from movies I’m not putting in BP list. We have Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse, Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, Jeremy Strong or Anthony Hopkins in Armageddon Time, Mark Rylance in Bones and All, Micheal Ward in Empire of Light, Don Cheadle in White Noise, and Tom Hanks in Elvis. Of that group, I’m starting to flirt with the idea of Rylance being the guy. He scored an upset win here with Bridge of Spies in 2015 over Sylvester Stallone in Creed and Bones has its ardent admirers. I wouldn’t discount the Redmayne pick as he’s a Best Actor winner in 2014 for The Theory of Everything who was nominated again the following year with The Danish Girl. If Elvis manages a BP nod (not out of the question), this would increase the inclusion of Hanks. I do have Triangle of Sadness in my BP ten and that could mean a third nomination for Woody Harrelson.
Bottom line: I feel pretty confident about Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson. Everything everywhere else is up in the air.
With that said, here’s my state of the race:
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Tom Hanks, Elvis
My deep dive with the Supporting Actress field is next!
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