Bad Boys for Life Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (01/16): Better than expected reviews are pushing my estimate from $38.6 million to $45.6 million

A quarter century after the original made Will Smith an action hero, he teams again with Martin Lawrence in Bad Boys for Life next weekend. This is the duo’s third collaboration playing cops battling European baddies and Michael Bay (who made the first two) is away from the director’s chair with Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah taking over. Franchise players Joe Pantoliano and Theresa Randle are back and newcomers include Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Charles Melton, and Paola Nunez.

The MLK holiday frame caps off a busy few months for the Artist Formerly Known as Fresh Prince. Last summer, he had a huge hit with Aladdin. In the fall, he experienced a flop with Gemini Man and voiced the lead character in the decently performing family pic Spies in Disguise. 

Back in the spring of 1995, the original Boys took in $15 million for its start with an eventual $65 million gross. Eight years later, Bad Boys II tripled that debut with $46 million with an overall tally of $138 million.

Seventeen years is a long break between entries and 2019 showed us that franchise fatigue was real in many cases. One example was Men in Black: International, which Mr. Smith steered clear from.

Mu guess is that part 3 won’t match its predecessor’s earnings and that’s even with the extra Monday due to the holiday. A decent comp could be Ride Along 2, which made $41 million over MLK four years back. That was under the $48 million that the first Ride hauled in. I’ll say Smith and Lawrence’s reported last ride hovers around the $40 million mark.

Bad Boys for Life opening weekend prediction: $45.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Dolittle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/09/dolittle-box-office-prediction/

The Beach Bum Box Office Prediction

Director Harmony Korine brings his drug fueled comedic sensibilities to the screen next weekend with the release of The Beach Bum. The Kids and Spring Breakers maker’s latest casts Matthew McConaughey as a stoner poet named Moondog. The supporting cast includes Isla Fisher, Snoop Dogg, Jonah Hill, Zac Efron, and Martin Lawrence.

There’s a niche market for Korine’s product and more solid reviews may have assisted. However, when Bum debuted at the South by Southwest Festival, it did so to mixed reaction. It currently has a 55% Rotten Tomatoes score.

It was only recently announced that this is being rolled out in wide fashion on Friday. A screen count could change my estimate, but as of now I’ll say it’ll be lucky to reach $2 million.

The Beach Bum opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million

For my Dumbo prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/20/dumbo-box-office-prediction/

For my Unplanned prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/unplanned-box-office-prediction/

For my Hotel Mumbai prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/hotel-mumbai-box-office-prediction/

This Day in Movie History: January 27

Eight years ago Today in Movie History – as if you didn’t know – Martin Lawrence returned in Big Momma’s House 2, which easily topped the box office chart with a $27.7 million premiere. The sequel would end up with $70M domestic. It did not reach the heights of its 2000 predecessor which took in $117 million, but that didn’t prevent a third Momma helping in 2011 which managed only $37 million stateside. Lawrence’s creation predated Madea but was clearly influenced by Eddie Murphy’s success in The Nutty Professor which had opened a few years before.

As for birthdays, Alan Cumming is 49 today. Many may know him for his role on TV’s “The Good Wife”, but comic book fans know him as Nightcrawler in X2: X-Men United. Other notable appearances: GoldenEye, Eyes Wide Shut, and the Spy Kids and Smurfs franchises.

Rosamund Pike is 35 today. She also costarred in a Pierce Brosnan Bond film, 2002’s Die Another Day. Since then she’s appeared in Pride&Prejudice, An Education, Wrath of the Titans, Jack Reacher, and The World’s End. Ms. Pike will become much more high-profile when she costars alongside Ben Affleck in this fall’s eagerly awaited David Fincher thriller Gone Girl.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them – well, they both were in Bond films with Pierce Brosnan. And Cumming was in Eyes Wide Shut with Tom Cruise who was in Jack Reacher with Pike.

And that’s today – January 27 – in Movie History!