There’s a good chance that Ticket to Paradise would’ve been the top grossing romantic comedy of about anywhere from 1998-2004. Its success in the fall of 2022 is less assured but achievable (though not in the range of its potential earnings years ago). George Clooney and Julia Roberts are a divorced couple on a mission to prevent their daughter (Kaitlyn Dever) from tying the knot. Ol Parker, director of Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, is behind the camera. Costars include Billie Lourd, Maxime Bouttier, and Lucas Bravo.
In a somewhat rare release pattern, Ticket was made available to various other international markets in September. The results have been pleasing with $60 million around the globe. Reviews are mixed/positive with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Rom coms have been challenged at multiplexes lately and a little hard to come by. Many have gone the streaming route instead. Pics like The Lost City have featured an action dynamic that Paradise doesn’t have.
It does have two high wattage leads and a return to Julia’s most beloved genre after two decades. She’s been a stalwart of this material with gigantic blockbusters such as Pretty Woman, My Best Friend’s Wedding, Notting Hill, and Runaway Bride. Having her Ocean’s Eleven ex-hubby along for the ride only helps.
The chance of this over performing its projection of low to highish teens is doable. Yet I suspect this won’t be a runaway huge premiere and instead do respectable business.
Ticket to Paradise opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
These posts about the awards viability of many pictures might be called “Oscar Predictions”. Sometimes it’s more of a Golden Globe predictions centered type of thing. That’s the case with Ticket to Paradise. The rom com has heavy star wattage with George Clooney and Julia Roberts as a divorced couple trying to prevent the pending nuptials of their daughter (Kaitlyn Dever). Ol Parker, who last made Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, directs. Costars include Maxime Bouttier, Billie Lourd, and Lucas Bravo.
Paradise is out in many parts of Europe next week before its October 21st domestic booking. Many reviews are out and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 67%. Academy attention is a non-starter. However, I do wonder if The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will take a look at Clooney or Roberts in the lead races in Musical/Comedy at the Globes. It remains to be seen how competitive those competitions are for 2022.
If the Globes want some big celebs in the mix as they return to the airwaves next year, you could do a lot worse. It’s just as possible that won’t happen, but I wouldn’t count it out. My Oscar (or Globe) Prediction posts will continue…
***Blogger’s Note II (08/09/18): A big change has happened. I am revising my estimate for The Meg up to $22.7 million, therefore giving it the #1 spot. I am also increasing my BlacKkKlansman estimate once again from $7.6M to $9.6M
**Blogger’s Note (08/08/18): I have revised my BlacKkKlansman estimate from $5.6M to $7.6M, which gives it the #5 spot and drops The Spy Who Dumped Me outside the top five.
A quartet of newbies attempt to dethrone Tom Cruise this weekend as shark tale TheMeg, Internet meme based horror pic SlenderMan, canine tale DogDays, and Spike Lee’s awards hopeful BlacKkKlansman all open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Of the four newcomers, TheMeg appears poised to earn the most. Audiences have proven they dig their shark flicks and the upside here is real. However, my high teens projection leaves it behind Mission: Impossible – Fallout and that would give Cruise and company a third weekend atop the charts.
Slender Man is a real question mark. Its studio doesn’t seem to have much faith in it, but horror titles can often surprise. I’m definitely at the lower end of expectations currently with a forecast in the high single digits. That would leave it lurking in fourth place behind Christopher Robin.
The five-spot depends on how the other two newcomers perform. Dog Days is opening on Wednesday and my $5.1 million estimate for its Friday to Sunday performance leaves it behind the $5.6 million I’m predicting for BlacKkKlansman (which certainly could go higher). That leaves both of them behind the second frame of The Spy Who Dumped Me, which should drop in the mid 40s range.
It’s an unpredictable weekend we have before us, but here’s how I have the top 5 looking:
1. The Meg
Predicted Gross: $22.7 million
2. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
3. Christopher Robin
Predicted Gross:$13.8 million
4. BlacKkKlansman
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
5. Slender Man
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
***If these numbers change throughout the week, I’ll post updates!
Box Office Results (August 3-5)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout had a terrific hold in weekend #2, dropping just 42% to gross $35.3 million (above my $32 million projection) and remain #1. The sixth installment of Tom Cruise’s franchise has amassed $124 million so far.
Disney’s Christopher Robin came in on the bottom end of expectations in the runner-up position with $24.5 million compared to my more generous $29.6 million estimate. Winnie the Pooh and company will hope for small declines in coming weekends.
The Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me also debuted on the low-end of the expected scale in third with just $12.1 million, under my $15.3 million forecast.
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again was fourth with $9 million (I said $8.3 million) for $91 million in three weeks.
I mistakenly left The Equalizer 2 out of the top five, but it was fifth with $8.7 million. The Denzel Washington sequel has made $79 million and looks to potentially top the $101 million earned by its predecessor.
Hotel Transylvania 3 was sixth with $8 million (I was lower at $6.9 million) and it’s earned $136 million overall. The franchise has shown remarkable consistency and I’d look for a fourth installment in about three years.
Finally, YA adaptation The Darkest Minds suffered a bad opening in 8th place with $5.8 million, in line with my $6.3 million prediction.
Blogger’s Note II (08/02/18): I am revising ChristopherRobin down to $29.6 million, meaning I’m now predicting Mission: Impossible – Fallout will take the top spot.
Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): I am revising my estimate for DarkestMinds from $8.7 million down to $6.3 million, which leaves it outside the top five.
The month of August at the box office kicks off with three new releases attempting to dislodge Tom Cruise and his IMF agents from the top spot: Disney’s Christopher Robin, Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, and Fox’s YA adaptation The Darkest Minds. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
Paramount is celebrating the franchise best opening yet with Mission: Impossible – Fallout and I’m anticipating a second weekend drop in the mid 40s range. That should put it in an extremely tight battle with Winnie the Pooh and company, which I have premiering in the mid 30s (though it could go higher).
The #3 spot should go to Spy, which I have slated for a mid teens start. Both Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2 dipped more harshly in their sophomore frames than I estimated. Therefore my high double digits projection for The Darkest Mind could be enough for it to nab #4 (though it could be neck and neck with Mamma).
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $32 million
2. ChristopherRobin
Predicted Gross: $29.6 million
3. The Spy Who Dumped Me
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
4. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
5. HotelTransylvania3: SummerVacation
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (July 27-29)
22 years after part 1, Tom Cruise achieved his highest opening in the Mission: Impossible franchise as Fallout took in $61.2 million (a touch below my $63.6 million estimate). Bolstered by terrific reviews, the sixth entry in the spy saga managed to outdo previous record holder Mission: Impossible II‘s $57 million way back in 2000. It’s safe to say Mr. Cruise is planning his stunts for a seventh pic.
Holdovers all experienced harsher declines that I figured. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again remained in second place with $15.1 million (I said $19.8 million) to bring its two-week tally to $70 million.
Last week’s champ The Equalizer 2 was third with $14 million compared to my $17.1 million projection. The Denzel Washington sequel fell a mighty 61% in its sophomore outing.
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation was fourth with $12.2 million (I went with my $13.6 million). It’s earned $119 million overall.
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, despite positive critical reaction, had a lackluster beginning in fifth place with $10.4 million, well under my $16.4 million forecast.
Tom Cruise and his IMF forces are back in theaters for the sixth time as Mission: Impossible – Fallout debuts this weekend along with the superhero animated tale Teen Titans! Go To the Movies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
Fallout is getting some of the best reviews that the 22-year-old franchise has ever received and the Ethan Hunt adventure should easily top the charts with a low to mid 60s haul.
It’s the #2 spot that could be a little more interesting. In a bit of a surprise this past weekend, The Equalizer 2 edged by Mamma Mia! Here Go Again for the #1 position. However, Fallout provides more direct competition for Denzel and it’s likely that Mamma retains the runner-up position with Equalizer falling to third.
And that’s only if Teen Titans doesn’t manage to outperform my estimate. My forecast for it has dwindled over the last few days and my low teens expectation could put it in a close battle for fourth with the third weekend of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation.
Here’s how I see the top five playing out:
1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $63.6 million
2. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
3. The Equalizer 2
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
4. TeenTitans! GoTotheMovies
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
Box Office Results (July 20-22)
Denzel Washington continued to prove his box office potency as The Equalizer 2 was a surprise #1 over Mamma Mia with $36 million, easily outpacing my $26.8 million estimate. That tops the $34 million earned out of the gate by its predecessor. With the Mission competition coming up, I expect this to drop approximately 50%.
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, despite failing to place first, opened right in line with expectations with a pleasing $34.9 million. That’s a bit higher than my $33.5 million estimate. As stated above, I expect it to maintain its #2 position this weekend.
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation dropped to third with $23.7 million in its sophomore frame for $91 million total. That’s on target with my $24.5 million prediction.
Ant-Man and the Wasp was fourth with $16.5 million (I said $15.2 million) to bring its tally to $165 million.
Incredibles 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The Pixar record breaker took in $11.8 million and it’s up to $557 million.
I mistakenly had Skyscraper in the top 5, but it was sixth with $11.3 million (a tad under my $12 million projection). The underwhelming Dwayne Johnson action pic has made $47 million.
Lastly, Unfriended: Dark Web couldn’t generate an audience with just $3.4 million (I went higher at $5.1 million). That said, the Blumhouse horror sequel reportedly only cost $1 million, so I’m sure the studio isn’t sweating it too much.
***Blogger’s Note II (07/26): On the eve of its premiere, I’m bumping my estimate back up from $13.4M to $16.4M
**Blogger’s Note (07/20): My estimate for Titans has dwindled from $17.4M to just $13.4M. That could mean a debut in the lower rungs of the top 5.
Teen Titans Go! To The Movies attempts to be the next animated hit of the summer when it debuts next weekend. This is a big screen version of the Cartoon Network’s series that debuted five years ago focusing on some fresh DC Comics superheroes. The cast of the show is here to voice their characters including Greg Cipes, Scott Menville, Khary Payton, Tara Strong, and Hynden Walch. And we have some familiar faces joining the voice over party including Kristen Bell, Will Arnett, Jimmy Kimmel as Batman, James Corden, Halsey, and Lil Yachty. Nicolas Cage, who was supposed to play the Man of Steel in a scrapped live-action Tim Burton pic nearly two decades ago, finally gets to be Superman.
Fans of the series won’t propel this to the heights of other animated efforts this season like Incredibles 2 or Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. While Mission: Impossible – Fallout will undoubtedly dominate the charts next weekend, Titans will make a go for the #2 spot over holdovers Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2.
A mid to high teens gross might be enough to achieve it and that’s the ballpark where I have this landing.
Teens Titans Go! To The Movies opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
For my Mission: Impossible – Fallout prediction, click here:
In a summer season filled with them, we have our most sequel heavy weekend ahead of us as Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, The Equalizer 2, and Unfriended: Dark Web all debut on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Both Mamma and Equalizer will attempt to unseat current sequel champ Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation from the top spot. The former seems to have the edge, while Denzel Washington’s first sequel ever should place second. That puts Adam Sandler’s animated flick in third with Ant-Man and the Wasp and the underwhelming Skyscraper rounding out the top five.
The low theater count for Unfriended means my $5.1 million estimate leaves it lurking outside of the high five. Here is my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
Predicted Gross: $33.5 million
2. The Equalizer 2
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
3. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
4. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
5. Skyscraper
Predicted Gross: $12 million
Box Office Results (July 13-15)
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation opened right in line with expectations at #1 with $44 million (I said $43.6 million). The third iteration of Adam Sandler and his monster friends could see a slightly larger decline in weekend #2 than its predecessors due to summer competition. They respectively fell 36% and 31% and I’ve got this pegged around 44%.
Ant-Man and the Wasp dropped to second in its sophomore frame and was swatted a bit harder than I figured at $29 million compared to my $33.4 million prediction. The MCU sequel stands at $133 million currently.
Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper opened below expectations in third with $24.9 million, well under my $33.2 million projection. Mixed reviews and (perhaps) a bit of overexposure for the star could have hurt it a bit.
Incredibles 2 was fourth with $16.2 million (I was close at $16.6 million) for a grand total of $535 million.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was right behind in fifth with $16.1 million (higher than my $14.2 million forecast) for $363 million overall.
Blogger’s Note (07/13): Today the expected theater count of only 1500 was released for Unfriended: Dark Web. This alters my estimate from $8.1 million all the way down to $5.1 million.
Found footage horror sequel Unfriended: Dark Web is uploaded into theaters next Friday in a weekend filled with other high-profile sequels. From Blumhouse, a production company that specializes in turning low-budget genre fare into profitable hits, this is the follow-up to the 2015 effort that became a sizable performer. The original debuted to over $15 million and ended up with just over $32 million domestically. If that doesn’t automatically sound like cause for a sequel, keep in mind that part 1 was reportedly made for only $1 million.
Stephen Susco, best known for writing The Grudge and its part 2, makes his directorial debut. The stand-alone sequel’s cast includes Colin Woodell, Betty Gabriel (best known as the creepy housekeeper in Get Out), and Rebecca Rittenhouse. Of the three sequels coming out next weekend, Dark Web will surely rank third behind Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2.
I also don’t expect it to pull the numbers of its predecessor and it will likely struggle to earn double digits out of the gate. That said, it’s a risk to underestimate Blumhouse. I’ll still say its opening is just about over half of what Unfriended accomplished.
Unfriended: Dark Web opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
Denzel Washington is back in action mode when The Equalizer 2 is released next weekend. In his decades long career filled with numerous hits, this is actually the first ever sequel for the star. Antoine Fuqua is back directing and it’s the fourth collaboration between two after 2001’s Training Day (for which Washington won an Oscar), 2014’s The Equalizer, and 2016’s The Magnificent Seven. Costars include Melissa Leo, Pedro Pascal, Ashton Sanders, and Bill Pullman.
When it comes to the action genre, few actors are as bankable as Denzel. The first Equalizer, which is based quite loosely a 1980s TV show starring Edward Woodward, made $34.1 million for its start and ended up at $101 million overall domestically. Two years later, The Magnificent Seven took in $34.7 million out of the gate and $93 million total. Nearly all of Washington’s titles in the genre in the past decade or so have achieved mid 20s or more in their premieres.
While The Equalizer 2 may face a challenge scoring a #1 opening over a very different follow-up (Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again), a high 20s to possibly low 30s roll out seems quite achievable.
The Equalizer 2 opening weekend prediction: $26.8 million
For my Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again prediction, click here:
Arriving just over 10 years to the day after its predecessor, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again dances into theaters next weekend, looking to be queen of the box office over other sequel competition. The 2008 original was based on a popular stage musical incorporating the music of Swedish super group ABBA and it turned into a behemoth at the multiplex. Returning cast members include Meryl Streep (in her first ever sequel), Amanda Seyfried, Pierce Brosnan, Colin Firth, Christine Baranski, Julie Walters, Stellan Skarsgard, and Dominic Cooper. Newbies include Lily James, Andy Garcia, and Cher. Ol Parker takes over directorial duties from Phyllida Lloyd.
Mamma Mia! held the distinction of being the highest grossing live-action musical of all time until 2017’s Beauty and the Beast topped it. It opened to $27.7 million and legged out quite well to a $144 million domestic total. The worldwide haul was a fantastic $615 million. Ten years is a significant gap between sequels, but the fan base seems likely to turn out and there’s little else marketing an older and female crowd. Two others sequels debuting over the weekend – The Equalizer 2 and Unfriended: Dark Web – are going for different demographics.
It seems reasonable to me that Again could debut about 20% higher than the first and it remains to be seen if it holds as well as part 1 in subsequent weekends.
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again opening weekend prediction: $33.5 million
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