The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.
None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.
So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.
I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.
Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.
As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.
Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.
Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.
That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.
The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.
Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.
Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.
Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)
13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)
16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)
19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)
20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)
22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)
24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The End
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress
Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)
11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Shannon, The End
Barry Keoghan, Bird
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)
9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Mixing comedy and drama with the Biblical epic genre, The Book of Clarence opens January 12th over the long MLK frame. This is Jeymes Samuel’s sophomore directorial feature after 2021’s The Harder They Fall. LaKeith Stanfield leads a sprawling cast that includes Omar Sy, RJ Cyler, Anna Diop, David Oyelowo, Micheal Ward, Alfre Woodard, Teyana Taylor, Caleb McLaughlin, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch.
The unique mashup was originally slated for September 2023 before a delay to January. It was first unveiled at the London Film Festival and holds an encouraging 94% RT score.
Despite the positive reviews, this is not your typical faith-based effort that might attract a significant religious crowd. The pushback to mid-January meant Clarence forewent an awards campaign that could’ve helped with awareness.
Over the Friday to Monday portion of the MLK weekend, this probably won’t hit $10 million. Mid single digits is more likely.
The Book of Clarence opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Arriving over 23 years after its predecessor, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget hatches on Netflix this December. Critics got their first look at it this weekend during the London Film Festival. Sam Fell directs with a voice cast including Thandiwe Newton, Zachary Levi (taking over from Mel Gibson), Bella Ramsey, Romesh Ranganathan, Jane Horrocks, Imelda Staunton, and Miranda Richardson.
In 2000, the original Chicken Run was a critical and commercial success with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. It arrived one year before the Academy established their Best Animated Feature race. Had it existed, it’s a safe bet that it would’ve been nominated.
Nugget is more of a question mark. Reviews are not as effusive (it’s at 83% on RT). I would put it behind two other sequels as far as its chances go behind frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. With other hopefuls like Elemental, Wish, and Nimona (among others) in the mix, there may not be enough room in the quintet for this long in the works follow-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The unconventional Biblical epic The Book of Clarence is the sophomore feature from Jeymes Samuel, who earned acclaim for his debut The Harder They Fall in 2021. It premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its planned January 12th opening stateside. LaKeith Stanfield, Omar Sy, Anna Diop, RJ Cyler, David Oyelowo, Micheal Ward, Alfre Woodard, Teyana Taylor, Caleb McLaughlin, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch are included in the sprawling cast.
Originally slated for September of this year, I assumed the mid-January push included an awards qualifying run before the ball drops. That does not appear to be the case as Book should be in contention for the 97th Academy Awards.
Reviews are mostly praising its unique take on the genre with a current 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, while Stanfield and some of the tech work is being singled out, this is a long shot to be an Oscar player. So was the director’s first pic and it came up empty handed at the 94th ceremony. And frankly, the January release date indicates that Sony might not make a major push for it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
2022 should be the year where Netflix makes significant waves in the Best Animated Feature category at the Oscars and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is its lead off hitter. The acclaimed filmmaker’s stop-motion passion project is out in select theaters next month with a streaming release on December 9th. Receiving a first look today at the London Film Festival, Pinocchio arrives a half decade after del Toro’s The Shape of Water took Best Picture (along with a directorial victory) and one year after his follow-up Nightmare Alley made the BP ten. Actors providing voiceovers include Ewan McGregor, David Bradley, Gregory Mann, Finn Wolfhard, Cate Blanchett, John Turturro, Ron Perlman, Tim Blake Nelson, Burn Gorman, Christoph Waltz, and Tilda Swinton.
Since I added Animated Feature in my predictions a few weeks back, I’ve had del Toro’s tale of the iconic puppet turned real boy listed in first place. Part of that is due to its maker’s track record. That’s not the only reason why. The other is that it might be a rare off year for Disney, who have taken the gold statue 15 out of 21 times. This summer’s Lightyear was a high profile flop that is likely to be omitted from the final five altogether. Turning Red from the spring achieved solid enough notices to make the cut, but I certainly don’t see it as an automatic winner. The Mouse Factory still has next month’s Strange World in their arsenal so we’ll see if that emerges as a major threat.
Several critics from the London screenings are proclaiming this Pinocchio to be great or near great. On the other hand, some reviews aren’t quite as effusive. I do think the early word-of-mouth is enough to take comfort in the #1 ranking. Yet I wouldn’t say it’s a slam dunk pick to take gold like, say, 2020’s Soul was. I would also keep an eye on Original Score with Alexandre Desplat composing. Visual Effects is also doable (if perhaps a stretch).
A nomination seems assured and Netflix could hold 60% of the nominees this year. Wendell and Wild, another upcoming stop-motion pic from Henry Selick, should get in. Either The Sea Beast or My Father’s Dragon could as well (though probably not both). The streamer got their first contender in 2019 with Klaus and then Over the Moon in 2020 and The Mitchells vs. the Machines last year. They’re 0 for 3 in wins. That may change with del Toro in the company mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on the 1988 Roald Dahl book as well as the musical stage show that followed years later, the cinematic rendering of Matilda the Musical streams on Netflix December 9th. That’s about two weeks after the UK rollout. It already made its festival debut in London to harmonious praise and a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Matthew Warchus is behind the camera, adapting from his own onstage direction in England and on Broadway (where Olivier and Tony Awards abounded). This is the second reworking of the Dahl book behind 1996’s version helmed by Danny DeVito. Alisha Weir plays the title character with a supporting cast including Lashana Lynch, Emma Thompson, Andrea Riseborough, and Stephen Graham.
Despite the praise, it’s a stretch to consider this an Academy contender. That is with the possible exception of Best Original Song where there are reported to be tunes separate from the stage version that could be eligible for consideration.
I wouldn’t sleep on Matilda‘s chances at the Golden Globes. The Musical/Comedy category could have room for a couple of surprises and this would fit the bill. Of the actors, Thompson is getting lots of love. However, I suspect Globes voters may honor her in lead Actress in Musical/Comedy for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (which premiered earlier this year). My Oscar (and Globe) Prediction posts will continue…
It could be time to admit that I’ve slept on My Father’s Dragon when it comes to Oscar consideration. Based on the 1948 children’s book by Ruth Stiles Gannett, the 2-D fantasy makes its way to Netflix on November 11th. It had its unveiling at the London Film Festival. Dragon is the fifth animated feature from Cartoon Saloon and their track record is, shall we say, fire.
The Irish outlet is 4 for 4 when it comes to getting their pics nominated for Best Animated Feature: 2010’s The Secret of Kells, 2014’s Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner from 2017, and 2020’s Wolfwalkers. Despite their success rate getting their product in the final quintet, they’ve yet to win.
Dragon is directed by Nora Twomey, who co-directed Kells and solo helmed The Breadwinner. The sprawling voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Gaten Matarazzo, Golshifteh Farahani, Jackie Earle Haley, Whoopi Goldberg, Dianne Wiest, Rita Moreno, Chris O’Dowd, Judy Greer, Alan Cumming, Yara Shahidi, Mary Kay Place, Leighton Meester, and Ian McShane.
Reviews are just beginning to trickle out of London and so far so good. The initial buzz indicates this should be a contender. Like its earlier efforts, I’d say it’s a viable film for nomination and not a victory. My last estimates had it ranked seventh… pretty low for a production company with the aforementioned history.
Yet there could be roadblocks on the Saloon’s road to five in a row. The main one is internal competition from Netflix itself. Most prognosticators (myself included) have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from the streamer listed in first place. Even though that’s sight unseen, the pedigree would suggest it’ll be Netflix’s biggest push for the gold statue. Others that the company could be focused on include this summer’s acclaimed The Sea Beast and Wendell and Wild from Jordan Peele, which debuts later this month and nabbed positive feedback at the Toronto Film Festival.
That’s four legit contenders from Netflix and Disney (for one) will have something to say about them achieving four nominations (they won’t). Something’s gotta give and we’ll see how the next few weeks play out to determine which movies from the quartet don’t make the dance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After premiering to solid reviews at the London Film Festival last week, the sci-fi animated comedy Ron’s Gone Wrong hits multiplexes on October 22. From directors Jean-Philippe Vine and Sarah Smith, the voice cast includes Zach Galifianakis, Jack Dylan Grazer, Olivia Colman, Ed Helms, Justice Smith, and Rob Delaney.
Wrong is the first effort from Locksmith Animation, a British outlet. Distributed by 20th Century Studios (a subsidiary of Disney), future Locksmith titles will be handled by Warner Bros. This is a rare wide release animated work not based on existing IP that isn’t coming specifically from the Mouse Factory or Illumination or DreamWorks.
Reviews are decent with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes score. Yet I really question whether family audiences are even aware of its existence. There’s not much competition for kiddos (The Addams Family 2 will be in its fourth weekend). I still am skeptical that this reaches double digits for the start.
Ron’s Gone Wrong opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
George Clooney’s The Tender Bar opens in limited release this December before its premiere on Amazon Prime in early January. The coming-of-age drama set in the 1970s and 80s screened at the London Film Festival over the weekend. Early reviews indicate a warm hearted tale that is unlikely to play in the highest profile races like Picture and Director.
Its famous director wooed Oscar voters 16 years ago with his second effort Good Night, and Good Luck. Scoring six nods (including Picture and Director) and winning none, it’s been slim pickings for Clooney’s behind the camera efforts ever since. 2011’s The Ides of March nabbed a sole Adapted Screenplay mention while last year’s The Midnight Sky made the cut in Visual Effects.
As I see it, The Tender Bar could play in two categories. The first is the screenplay adapted by William Monahan. He’s no stranger to Academy attention as he won in 2006 for his penmanship of Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. Inclusion there is less likely than for one of its performers.
That would be Ben Affleck. Another leading man turned writer/director, Affleck has a deep history with Oscar voters that has nothing to do with his acting. In 1997, his Good Will Hunting script with Matt Damon won. Fifteen years later, he directed and produced (hence a second trophy) Best Picture winner Argo. Surprisingly, he didn’t get a spot for his direction.
With a cast featuring Tye Sheridan, Lily Rabe, and Christopher Lloyd, the initial critical praise is being heaped upon Affleck. That’s in addition to some kudos for his supporting work in The Last Duel (out this weekend). Mr. Affleck has been on the radar screen before for his performances – think Hollywoodland, Argo, and last year’s The Way Back. Yet he’s never made the dance. As of now, the Supporting Actor derby for 2021 looks wide open. I’d go as far to say there’s no guaranteed nominees (though Jamie Dornan in Belfast and Richard Jenkins in The Humans look probable). I’ve had Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) listed at #1 for two months, but we still don’t know if his role is meaty enough to truly contend.
This could all contribute to Affleck finally getting some Academy TLC. That said, he’s been in the mix before and come up shy. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
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