Tag: Last Vegas

Just Getting Started Box Office Prediction

A pair of Oscar winners hope to bring in an older audience next weekend when Just Getting Started premieres. Morgan Freeman and Tommy Lee Jones star as retirees taking on the Mob in this comedy from Ron Shelton, best known for his directorial efforts of the past including Bull Durham and White Men Can’t Jump. Rene Russo, Glenne Headly (in her final film role), and Joe Pantoliano are among the supporting players.

Freeman has been appearing in these geriatric yuck fests with increasing frequency as of late. Earlier in the year, Going in Style debuted to a decent $11.9 million. 2013’s Last Vegas fared even better with an opening north of $16 million. A number similar to Style would seem to be the absolute high bar here. However, I have trouble seeing this getting into double digits.

One big reason: distributor Broad Green Pictures is bankrupt and promotion for Started has been muted at best. A theater count will help shed light on its potential and my estimate could be adjusted accordingly. My initial feeling is that this just gets started in the mid single digits and fades quickly.

Just Getting Started opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

Going in Style Box Office Prediction

Call it Grumpy Old Thieves as Going in Style debuts at the box office next weekend. The pic is actually a remake of a 1979 caper comedy with George Burns and Art Carney about some old men cheated out of their pensions who exact the revenge. Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, and Alan Arkin are the headliners with Zach Braff directing. Costars include Joey King, Ann-Margret, Christopher Lloyd, Kenan Thompson, and Matt Dillon. Theodore Melfi, who recently directed Hidden Figures, is the screenwriter.

Style could work reasonably well as a pleasant diversion for older moviegoers. The box office has been dominated by family fare as of late and comedies have been in rather short supply (CHiPs didn’t exactly set the multiplex on fire).

There’s a possibility that this could put up similar numbers to Last Vegas, which premiered to $16 million. That’s on the higher end of expectations. I believe a more likely scenario is $10-$13 million with the hope from Warner Bros that word of mouth is solid and it does well in subsequent weekends.

Going in Style opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million

For my Smurfs: The Lost Village prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/29/smurfs-the-lost-village-box-office-prediction/

For my The Case for Christ prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/03/the-case-for-christ-box-office-prediction/

Last Vegas Movie Review

Redfoo comes away the best in Last Vegas. Who’s Redfoo you ask? He’s one half of the hip hop party group LMFAO and he has a scene as a DJ for a bikini contest in the film. Redfoo will, for the rest of his life, be able to say he shared a scene with Michael Douglas, Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman and Kevin Kline. That bikini judging sequence is one of many obvious and comedically flat sequences in the picture. Yet for Redfoo, I suppose it’s pretty cool for him. The same cannot be said for the rest of the performers listed.

The film has been referred to as The Hangover for old guys and that’s a fairly accurate description. Douglas is a lifelong single man who finally decides to tie the knot with a woman less than half his age. His friends of 60 years are enlisted for a Vegas bachelor party. They are De Niro, who is a recent widower and whose late wife was involved in a love triangle long ago with Douglas’s character. There’s Freeman, whose family coddles him after he suffered a mild stroke. There’s Kline, whose sole character trait is that his wife gives him a weekend pass to sow his oats.

Once in Sin City, we experience every tired cliche one would expect to find in this type of material. The geezers are given the awesome suite due to Freeman’s gambling abilities. There’s amazement on their part about the price tags of bottle services in the club. Mary Steenburgen becomes the object of Douglas and De Niro’s affection as a lounge singer who they both manage to fall for in about 30 seconds. There isn’t a moment in Last Vegas that feels original or inspired. I didn’t expect this to reach much past the level of tolerable mediocrity, but it doesn’t even reach that unimpressive category.

50 Cent has a cameo as himself. He was supposed to stay in the Big Daddy suite and gets bumped for our grumpy old bachelor party. Even 50 gets the short shrift though as he doesn’t get to share air time with these legendary actors who are seriously slumming it. That honor, once again, belongs to Redfoo. He gets a good story out of Last Vegas’s existence. The audience? Not so much.

*1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: November 22-24

The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.

The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/

Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $166.7 million

2. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)

Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!

Box Office Predictions: November 15-17

Let’s call this upcoming weekend at the box office “the one between the openings of the Thor and Hunger Games sequels” as only one picture debuts. It’s another sequel – The Best Man Holiday, the follow-up to 1999’s The Best Man. I think it will be assured the #2 spot. You can read my prediction post on it here:

 

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/10/the-best-man-holiday-box-office-prediction/

Thor: The Dark World should easily remain #1 before The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens the following weekend. I would expect the Marvel megahit to lose over half its business in its sophomore frame. As for other holdovers, I see Free Birds having the smallest drop and remaining in the three spot while comedies Last Vegas and Bad Grandpa fill out the rest of the top five.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five box office:

1. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $39.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 19%)

4. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

 

Box Office Results: November 8-10

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World opened as expected, posting the fourth highest debut of 2013 with $86.1 million. This is right in line with my $85.6M prediction so I’ll give myself a nice pat on the back for this one! Thor benefited from the continued Avengers momentum and the rock solid opening bodes well for next spring’s Captain America sequel.

While I am pleased with my Thor prediction, the same cannot be said for my estimate for About Time, the rom com with Rachel McAdams. I predicted it would earn $12.8 million, but also noted in my post that it could tank. And tank it did with a dismal $5.1 million debut for only 9th place.

As for the rest of the top five, it was Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa second again with $11.3 million (I was right there with $11.2M predicted). The animated Free Birds was in the #3 slot with $11.2 million, just above my $10.4M projection. The all-star comedy Last Vegas was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11M… pat back again). I was, however, off with the performance of Ender’s Game in its sophomore frame. I predicted the sci-fi pic would hold up reasonably well and make $13.6 million. It dropped to #5 with $10.3M. It’s safe to say this one is now a box office disappointment.

And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction post on next weekend’s only newcomer, The Best Man Holiday.

Box Office Predictions: November 1-3

It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.

Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.

Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $32.9 million

2. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $21 million

3. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Last Vegas Box Office Prediction

The four stars of Last Vegas are all Oscar winners who have had long and respectable (for the most part) careers. The question is: can the star power of Robert De Niro, Michael Douglas, Morgan Freeman, and Kevin Kline propel this gimmicky sounding exercise to box office success?

You can put me down as highly uncertain. The flexibility on how Last Vegas opens is wide. The pic puts the quartet in a bachelor party setting and The Hangover for senior citizens tag has been thrown around a lot. This is the type of flick that could stall and reach low teens. It could also strike a chord with older audiences and open much bigger than most prognosticators assume – like over $25 million or $30 million. I’m skeptical that Last Vegas reaches those milestones, but I won’t be shocked if it does.

The most sensible prediction is high teens-to low 20s in my view. Still, there’s no doubt that Vegas remains a bit of a question mark to me as neither a $12 million or $32 million debut would totally surprise me.

Last Vegas opening weekend prediction: $19.2 million

For my Ender’s Game opening weekend prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Birds prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/