A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:
In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.
That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).
And with that, my forecast for the top 5:
1. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $18 million
2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Monkey Man
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
BoxOffice Results (April 5-7)
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.
Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.
The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.
Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.
Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hopes to heat up the box office this weekend while Immaculate looks to bring in horror fans. My detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers can be accessed here:
The fifth feature in the franchise, Empire will try to match or exceed the mid 40s earnings that 2016’s Ghostbusters and immediate predecessor Ghostbusters: Afterlife from 2021 achieved in their debuts. I have it a tad under in the low 40s for what will easily be a #1 start.
We are likely to witness a battle for second between holdovers Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two. I have each dipping in the mid to high 30s with the animated sequel barely edging the sci-fi sequel.
Immaculate is a genuine question mark. Neon’s supernatural fright fest stars Sydney Sweeney, who’s coming off the hot Anyone but You and also the cold Madame Web. It seems to be flying under the radar, but could over perform as the genre often does. My mid single digits take puts it firmly in fourth with the disappointing Arthur the King rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I think it will play out:
1. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $42.7 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million
3. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $17.4 million
4. Immaculate
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Arthur the King
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (March 15-17)
Kung Fu Panda 4 held the crown for the second weekend in a row with $30.1 million, right on target with my $30.6 million estimate. The two-week tally puts it over the century mark at $107 million as it continues to outpace part 3.
Dune: Part Two, as expected, had a nice hold in weekend #3 with $28.5 million. I was on pace with my $29.4 million forecast as its surpassed the double century mark with $204 million.
Mark Wahlberg’s canine tale Arthur the King failed to bring in audiences with only $7.6 million, well under my $12.5 million call. I’m expecting a sophomore drop over 50% this weekend.
Imaginary held better than I assumed with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million projection. The teddy bear themed horror pic stands at $19 million after two outings and that’s nearly double its budget.
Faith-based Cabrini plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $2.8 million and that’s below my $4.1 million prediction. The total is $13 million.
Finally, Kristen Stewart’s critically acclaimed crime thriller Love Lies Bleeding had a fairly anemic wide rollout in sixth with $2.4 million (I said $3.7 million).
While animated titles dealing with spiders or herons are the likeliest Best Animated Feature Oscar winner this Sunday, Kung Fu Panda 4 hopes to take the box office this weekend. DreamWorks Animation’s martial arts comedy comes from director Mike Mitchell with Jack Black reprising his role as Po. Dustin Hoffman, Awkwafina, Viola Davis, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, Ian McShane, Ke Huy Quan, Lori Tan Chinn, and Ronny Chieng also provide voiceover work.
The first pair of Panda pics in 2008 and 2011 both received Animated Feature nods from the Academy, losing respectively to Wall-E and Rango. The third edition in 2016 did not manage to make the quintet despite matching the original’s 87% RT score (the second one hit 81%). No. 4 currently sits at 78%. If competition is weak, perhaps this series could return to contention. I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.
In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.
The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.
Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
Blogger’s Note (08/02/18) – On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my estimate from $8.7 million to $6.3 million
Based on a series of YA novels from Alexandra Bracken, TheDarkestMinds debuts in theaters next weekend. The dystopian adventures stars Amandla Stenberg (from last year’s Everything, Everything), Mandy Moore, Gwendoline Christie, and Bradley Whitford. Jennifer Yuh Nelson (best known for making parts 2 and 3 of the animated KungFuPanda franchise) directs.
We are far removed from the YA adaptation heyday of TheHungerGames and Twilight series. 20th Century Fox doesn’t seem to be hyping this one much. Instead of anything near Katniss or Bella numbers, I could see this struggling to reach double digits. The best comp could be 2013’s TheMortalInstruments: CityofBones, which made a piddling $9.3 million for its start and effectively ended any chance of future sequels. That will probably be the case here with a dark opening for Minds.
TheDarkestMinds opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
Highest Grossing Picture: Avatar (2009) – $760 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 6 (Avatar, The Fast and the Furious, Fast and Furious, Fast & Furious 6, Furious 7, S.W.A.T.)
Lowest Grosser: Battle in Seattle (2008) – $224,000
Overall Rank: 79
14. Angelina Jolie
Career Earnings: $2.1 billion
Franchises: Kung Fu Panda, Tomb Raider
Highest Grossing Picture: Maleficent (2014) – $241 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 10 (Maleficent, Kung Fu Panda, Kung Fu Panda 2, Kung Fu Panda 3, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Shark Tale, Wanted, Lara Croft: Tomb Raider, Salt, Gone in 60 Seconds)
Lowest Grosser: Hell’s Kitchen (1999) – $11,000
Overall Rank: 68
13. Carrie Fisher
Career Earnings: $2.2 billion
Franchises: Star Wars
Highest Grossing Picture: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) – $936 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 4 (Star Wars, The Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi, Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Lowest Grosser: The Time Guardian (1989) – $12,000
Overall Rank: 61
12. Sigourney Weaver
Career Earnings: $2.2 billion
Franchises: Alien, Ghostbusters
Highest Grossing Picture: Avatar (2009) – $760 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 4 (Avatar, Ghostbusters, Ghostbusters II, The Village)
Lowest Grosser: The Guys (2003) – $21,000
Overall Rank: 60
11. Kathy Bates
Career Earnings: $2.3 billion
Franchises: None
Highest Grossing Picture: Titanic (1997) – $658 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 4 (Titanic, The Blind Side, The Waterboy, Valentine’s Day)
Lowest Grosser: A Little Bit of Heaven (2010) – $15,000
Over Memorial Day weekend this year, Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass opened to an abysmal $33 million over the holiday weekend, immediately making it one of the biggest bombs of 2016. How poor was that opening? It’s the sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland, which made $116 million in its first weekend (which was a three-day frame, not a four-day one). Looking Glass will be lucky to make $80M in its entire domestic run, nearly $40M under what Wonderland earned in its premiere weekend. Ouch.
Is there an easy explanation? Did Disney take too long with the six year hiatus between franchise entries? Perhaps. Did the negative tabloid publicity surrounding star Johnny Depp hurt? Maybe.
Yet another explanation is likely part of the equation. In 2016, moviegoers have seemed to catch a case of “sequelitis” and their symptoms have been affecting box office grosses for a number of pictures already this year.
Over that same Memorial Day weekend, X-Men: Apocalypse ruled the charts with a $79 million debut. That would seem impressive, except X-Men: Days of Future Past made $110 million over the same weekend just two years earlier.
This story has repeated itself repeatedly in recent months. Ride Along 2 was expected to build on its predecessor’s opening weekend. The 2014 original cruised to a $41M opening. The sequel: $35M. When all was said and done, the first Ride made $44M more than its follow-up.
Other comedies have suffered the same fate. 2001’s Zoolander actually only made $45 million in its initial run, but became a major cult hit in subsequent years. It’s long gestating sequel would surely earn more. It didn’t. Just $28M.
2002’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding became the unexpected smash of that year with $241M stateside. Part 2? $59 million (to be fair, this was on the higher end of many expectations, but still just 25% of what the first Wedding did).
2014’s Neighbors? $150 million. Last month’s Neighbors: Sorority Rising? It should top out at around $60M.
Barbershop: The Next Cut will make $55 million, under the $75M and $65M of its predecessors (though still not bad).
The action crowd has showed their ambivalence. London Has Fallen earned a just OK $62 million compared to Olympus Has Fallen‘s $98M.
2014’s Divergent made $150 million. 2015’s Insurgent: $130 million. This year’s Allegiant: a troubling $66 million.
Then there’s The Huntsman Winter’s War, which may not even reach $50 million. It’s the sequel to Snow White and the Huntsman, which made $155 million.
Just this weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows took in $35 million in its debut, which is a shell of the $65 million that the first made two summers ago.
Faith based audiences propelled God’s Not Dead to a heavenly $60 million gross in 2014. Part 2? $20 million.
Kung Fu Panda 3 performed decently with $143 million, but couldn’t match part 1’s $215M or part 2’s $165M.
Seeing a trend here, folks?
There have been rare exceptions in 2016 so far. 10 Cloverfield Lane managed $72 million. Even though that’s below the $80M of Cloverfield, it’s still a solid gross and a profitable venture for its studio.
And Captain America: Civil War was widely expected to outdo the respective $176M and $259M earnings of the first two entries. This was due to it basically being The Avengers 3. It did and will top $400M domestically.
Coming this weekend: two more sequels will try to avoid the 2016 trend and both actually have a decent chance of succeeding. The Conjuring 2 is receiving positive reviews and its studio is hoping the goodwill left over from the 2013 original will propel it to similar grosses (I’m predicting it’ll make $42 million for its start, slightly above the first).
Now You See Me 2 is hoping to match the $29 million made by the 2013 original for its beginning. I’m predicting $24M.
If both of these titles come in below expectations, that may truly show that crowds are just plain sick and tired of seeing roman numerals and numbers behind titles. Looking over the remainder of the 2016 calendar, there’s a heap of sequels that could also struggle to match what came before them. They include:
The Purge: Election Year. Bridget Jones’s Baby. Underworld: Blood Wars. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back. Ouija 2. Bad Santa 2.
Even this month’s Independence Day: Resurgence is an iffy proposition to capitalize on the nostalgia factor from the 1996 original. It appears unlikely to match the $306M earned 20 years ago by the first one.
Next month’s Star Trek Beyond could have trouble matching the $228M made by part 2 in 2013.
Inferno, the third Tom Hanks thriller based on Dan Brown’s novels, is a question mark to match the $133M that Angels & Demons made in 2011 and certainly won’t approach The Da Vinci Code‘s $217M a decade ago.
When it comes to 2016 sequels, it might not all be bad news. Finding Dory (out June 17) shouldn’t have much trouble topping the $70M that Nemo made in 2003 (though whether it reaches its eventual gross of $380M is a mystery).
And July’s Jason Bourne should benefit from having Matt Damon return to the franchise after nine years away. It should manage to outpace the $113M made by Jeremy Renner’s The Bourne Legacy in 2012. However, could it approach the $227M earned by Damon’s last one, 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum? Probably not.
Perhaps these disappointing results for so many sequels will cause studios to give us more original programming, but don’t hold your breath. Next year is already packed with follow-ups and some of them already look like they could be in trouble.
For instance, it’s probably safe to assume Disney is sweating over the fifth Pirates of the Caribbean flick, Dead Men Tell No Tales. Same goes for Lionsgate with their final Divergent pic, Ascendant.
Some of the 2017 sequels that may not have much to worry about: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Fast 8. And, of course, Star Wars: Episode VIII.
Yet given the recent trends, who knows? No one thought Alice or Huntsman or Allegiantwould do that poorly and it’s contributed to a bad… and maybe badly needed downturn for sequels in 2016.
A quartet of new releases start out the month of March at the box office this weekend. They are Disney Animation’s Zootopia, action sequel London Has Fallen, Tina Fey war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, and British horror entry The Other Side of the Door. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Zootopia should have no trouble ending the three week domination of Deadpool atop the charts while I expect London to hit the #2 spot, putting Ryan Reynolds’ vulgar superhero in the three spot with Whiskey placing fourth. Box office dud Gods of Egypt should be fifth in its second weekend, as long as its anticipated hefty decline doesn’t allow Kung Fu Panda 3 to remain in the top five. As for The Other Side of the Door, it’s only opening on around 500 screens and my $2.1 million prediction for it leaves it far outside the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $54.4 million
2. London Has Fallen
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million
3. Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Gods of Egypt
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (February 26-28)
As anticipated, Deadpool maintained the #1 position for the third weekend in a row. The three new entries were, as Donald Trump might say, “low energy”. Ryan Reynolds’ phenomenon took in $31.1 million (compared to my $28M forecast) for a total of $285M.
Gods of Egypt proved to be the first massive bomb of the year as the inexplicably budgeted $140 million action fantasy grossed just $14.1 million, which was on pace with my $13.9M estimate.
Animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3 was third in weekend #5 with $8.8 million, in line with my $8.2M projection for a total gross of $128M.
Biblical drama Risen was fourth in its sophomore frame with $6.8 million, right there with my $7.1M prediction for a ten day total of $22M.
Two newcomers had soft debuts for the fifth and sixth slots. Heist thriller Triple 9 earned $6.1 million (just below my prediction of $6.9M) for fifth while Olympic drama Eddie the Eagle was iced in sixth with only $6 million (I was much kinder with an $11.2M estimate).
And that’ll do it for now. folks! Until next time…
Like last weekend, a trio of newcomers will attempt to unseat the reign of Deadpool at the box office. They are big budget action fantasy Gods of Egypt, Olympic sports tale Eddie the Eagle, and heist thriller Triple 9. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
And like last weekend, I don’t see any of them topping the raunchy Ryan Reynolds superhero megahit. Deadpool should lose about half its audience in weekend #3, allowing it to easily come in first. As for newbies, Gods of Egypt and Eddie the Eagle should manage 2nd and 3rd with Triple 9 competing for a top five showing. Holdovers Kung Fu Panda 3 and Risen may lose between 35-40% of its crowds.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for this weekend:
Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $28 million (representing a drop of 50%)
2. Gods of Egypt
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
3. Eddie the Eagle
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)
5. Risen
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)
6. Triple 9
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (February 19-21)
As expected, Deadpool continued to rule the charts in its sophomore frame with $56.4 million – in range with my $58.6M estimate. Its two week total stands at an astonishing $236M and, as mentioned above, it should continue its dominance next weekend.
Kung Fu Panda 3 was second with $12.5 million, a bit above my $10.8M projection for a four week haul of $114M.
Biblical drama Risen was the top newcomer in third with $11.8 million, not quite reaching my $14.2M prediction. This is a fair debut and it hopes to experience smallish declines as Easter approaches.
Critically lauded low budget horror pic The Witch debuted in fourth with $8.8 million, ahead of my $6.7M estimate. Considering its reported $1 million budget, this is quite a tidy sum.
Rom com How to Be Single was fifth in its second weekend with $8.2 million, just below my prediction of $9.2M for a two week total of $31M.
Jesse Owens biopic Race had a muted sixth place premiere with $7.3 million, below my $10.6M forecast.
Finally, Ben Stiller’s box office dud of a sequel slipped to seventh with $5.4 million (I said $6.1M) for a total of just $23M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Three new entries hit theaters this weekend to compete with the box office bonanza that is Deadpool. They are: Biblical drama Risen, Jesse Owens biopic Race, and critically lauded horror flick The Witch. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Not one of them has any realistic shot of overtaking Ryan Reynolds and his very R rated superhero as that pic left a pool of box office records in its wake over the long weekend (much more on that below).
Risen, which could bring in a faith based contigent, could well end up in the runner up position with Race battling both How to Be Single and Kung Fu Panda 3 for the three spot. I don’t look for The Witch to accomplish much, despite its solid reviews, and have it pegged for 6th place (in what could be a photo finish with Zoolander No. 2‘s sophomore weekend after its disappointing debut).
The second weekend of Deadpool could see it falling in the mid-high 50s percentage wise, which would be on par with other major comic book grossers. Still, I couldn’t have been more wrong with how big it was going to be (along with pretty much all other prognosticators), so who knows?
Nevertheless – we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:
Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $58.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. Risen
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
3. Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Race
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
5. How to Be Single
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)
6. The Witch
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
7. Zoolander No. 2
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
Box Office Results (February 12-14)
It’s only February, but there’s no question that the opening weekend of Deadpool will be one of the box office stories of the year. The well-reviewed R rated superhero pic grossed an absolutely astonishing $132.4 million over the traditional weekend – embarassing my meager $58.2M projection. The film’s four day President’s Day haul: $152.1M. Sometimes movies turn into phenomenons and that’s the case here. Expect to see plenty of Ryan Reynolds in this role into the future as this had the largest February and largest R rated debut of all time. Additionally, it had the 17th highest domestic premiere of all time.
Kung Fu Panda 3 dropped to second with $19.7 million in week #3, holding up considerably better my than $14 million estimate. The toon’s total stands at $100M.
Rom com How to Be Single had a respectable debut in third place with $17.8 million (on target with my $18.7M prediction) and its four day is $19.9M. Not a bad start and this certainly can claim a small victory for opening higher than the Zoolander sequel.
Speaking of, the news was not so good for Ben Stiller and company as Zoolander No. 2 stumbled out of the runway with just $13.8 million, well below my $20.9M prediction. This was expected to open in second place and certainly not fourth. Poor reviews didn’t help and neither did a good portion of its intended audience watching that filthy superhero instead. Its holiday four day total: $15.8M.
Oscar hopeful The Revenant was fifth with $6.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. Its total is at $159M.
Sixth place belonged to Hail, Caesar! in its second weekend with $6.3 million, in line with my $5.6M projection. Its total gross is at an OK $22M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…