Kevin Costner is certainly pumping out the movies and this Friday comes Black or White, an interracial drama that finds the actor trying to maintain custody of his granddaughter. Octavia Spencer and Anthony Mackie costar. The small budget pic premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to mixed reviews. It was released in limited fashion in December for an Oscar qualifying run which didn’t pan out whatsoever.
The film stands at a meager 38% on Rotten Tomatoes and it’s hard to imagine this gathering much buzz. Additionally it’s being released on a relatively low 1500 estimated screens. It has been quite some time since Costner had drawing power at the box office and Black or White should be in line for a minor debut.
Black or White opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
Looking over the landscape of movies over the past decade, it’s almost as if someone got Batman, Superman, Spiderman, The Incredible Hulk, James Bond, Jason Bourne, and others in a room together circa rougly 2004. And in their best Oprah voice, they exclaimed “YOU get a reboot! YOU get a reboot! YOU get a reboot! EVERYONE GETS A REBOOT!!!”
And so it continues with the character of Jack Ryan which casts Chris Pine (the rebooted Captain Kirk himself) as the fourth actor to play the role after Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford, and Ben Affleck (soon to be rebooted Batman). Based on the works of Tom Clancy, this franchise got rolling in 1990 with The Hunt for Red October (Baldwin), continued with Ford in 1992’s Patriot Games and 1994’s Clear and Present Danger, and then onto 2003’s The Sum of All Fears with Affleck.
Like Sum of All Fears, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit is yet another origin story of the character and how he got involved in the CIA in the first place. Affleck’s origin story worked in part due to its arrival less than two years after the events of September 11. The terrorist attack scenes involving Baltimore hit close to home after the tragic real-life events in New York City, Washington D.C., and rural Pennsylvania. In this reboot, it’s the event of 9/11 itself that influences Jack to his military and eventual CIA service.
We open with Jack as a student abroad when 9/11 occurs and this leads him to enlist in the military and an eventual injury sustained while serving in Afghanistan. His stateside rehab puts him in contact with a med student (Keira Knightley) who will become his fiancee and also with a CIA official (Kevin Costner) who’s on a recruiting (SHADOW RECRUITING!) mission. Costner’s casting as the wily veteran mentor was interesting to me in the sense that I bet the actor was probably offered the role of Ryan when Hunt for Red October was being developed (just an educated guess).
Costner recruits Ryan to go deep undercover as a Wall Street analyst whose main job is to keep an eye out for terrorist financial transactions. Jack discovers a plot to crash the U.S. financial market and perhaps carry out even more dastradly attacks on the homeland. This nefarious plot is led by a Russian baddie portrayed by the film’s director himeslf, Kenneth Branagh.
There’s a nifty sequence in Shadow Recruit where Jack and his fiancee must team up at a dinner meeting to trick Branagh’s villainous character. This portion is well-constructed and sufficiently suspenseful. Unfortunately, the remainder of the picture feels awfully familiar and unremarkable. The truth is that it’s easy to see why audiences were ambivalent about this franchise reboot and why it only earned a middling $50 million stateside.
Like The Amazing Spider-Man in 2012, Shadow Recruit feels unnecessary. Also like that film, it’s an easy enough viewing experience and has its moments but that’s not quite enough to justify its existence. We’ve seen Batman and James Bond rebooted to terrific results in recent years. This reboot is one that is mildly entertaining but easily forgotten.
Kevin Costner headlines the football comedy/drama Draft Day, which opens Friday. The film focuses on Costner playing the Cleveland Browns GM and the action surrounding them receiving the #1 pick in the draft.
Costarring Jennifer Garner and Denis Leary and with Ghostbusters director Ivan Reitman behind the camera, the question is whether Draft Day will do for the Cleveland Browns what 1989’s Major League did for the Cleveland Indians? That picture was a success and it was unfortunately followed by some weak sequels. Costner is not near the box office draw he was over two decades ago, as evidenced earlier this year with 3 Days to Kill.
Recent sports entries such as The Blind Side and 42 have posted solid grosses, but I don’t see Draft Day getting close to those. As a lifelong Cleveland sports fan, this shouldn’t surprise. We’re used to anything related to Cleveland sports ending in disappointment. The pic could certainly reach high teens, but I’m more inclined to believe lower teens is the likely scenario.
Draft Day opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
All of a sudden Kevin Costner is everywhere and in the last few months he’s appeared in Man of Steel, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and the upcoming football flick Draft Day. For this weekend it’s the action/thriller 3 Days to Kill which is helmed by McG, director of the Charlie’s Angels pics and Terminator: Salvation.
Costner certainly isn’t the box office draw that he was a couple of decades ago and the advertising for Kill doesn’t make it look like anything other than a generic action movie. My main question is whether or not this even gets past single digits in its debut. I have my doubts and don’t see a compelling reason why this would have a solid opening. If Liam Neeson were headlining this, I’d likely to be singing a different tune but since that’s not the case I’m going low here.
3 Days to Kill opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million
Six years ago Today in Movie History – January 18 – marked the release of Cloverfield, the found footage monster flick which set the all-time January opening weekend record. That record still stands. Produced by JJ Abrams and directed by Matt Reeves, Cloverfield is still looked at as a model of brilliant marketing with its fantastic trailer and insistence on secrecy that Abrams still employs on its features. Its domestic haul stands at $80 million with a worldwide gross of $170 million. Director Reeves is currently working on Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, out this summer.
As for birthdays, Kevin Costner is 59 today. From the mid 80s through the mid 90s, he was one of the most bankable actors working in the business. High-profile roles during that period include No Way Out, The Untouchables, Bull Durham, Field of Dreams, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves, JFK, and The Bodyguard. In 1990, he would win Best Director with Dances with Wolves, his first feature working behind the camera. The film would also win Best Picture. There’s been some financial disappointments as well: Wyatt Earp, Waterworld and The Postman, among others. Costner has kept himself busy lately with roles in the miniseries “Hatfields&McCoys”, Man of Steel, and this weekend’s Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit.
Jason Segel is 34 today. Many know him best for his gig on the hit CBS sitcom “How I Met Your Mother”. After a supporting role in Knocked Up, Segel would be promoted to leading man status in Forgetting Sarah Marshall in 2008 and I Love You, Man the following year. Recent pics include Bad Teacher, The Muppets, and The Five Year Engagement.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between the actors:
After nearly twelve years away from the screen, the character of CIA agent Jack Ryan returns with the fourth actor playing the role in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, out Friday. We’ve had Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford, and Ben Affleck in the part and now it’s Chris Pine’s turn.
Based on the works of the late Tom Clancy, Shadow Recruit is the first Ryan pic not specifically based on one of his books. Kenneth Branagh, who most recently directed the first Thor movie, is behind the camera. Kevin Costner and Keira Knightley costar. As mentioned, it’s been since May 2002 when Affleck starred in The Sum of All Fears. This franchise has been rather consistent in its grosses. Here’s a rundown:
1990: The Hunt for Red October – opening: $17.1 million. Total domestic gross: $122 million.
1992: Patriot Games – opening: $18.5 million. Total domestic gross: $83.3 million.
1994: Clear and Present Danger – opening: $20.3 million. Total domestic gross: $122.1 million.
2002: The Sum of All Fears – opening: $31.1 million. Total domestic gross: $118.9 million.
Shadow Recruit was originally scheduled to debut over Christmas but was pushed back to January by Paramount when The Wolf of Wall Street was delayed to the holiday weekend. It will be interesting to see how the long gap between Ryan features affects its gross. While the previous entries have been solid grossers, I don’t really feel that there was a big clamoring for another installment. When the Bourne franchise shuffled the deck and put Jeremy Renner in the role with Matt Damon out, it opened with a solid $38 million in 2012. Yet that was far below what previous Bourne flicks had accomplished. And that franchise was more current with audiences as well. Recruit probably won’t reach the heights of what Bourne did two years ago. Chris Pine likely doesn’t have the star power to guarantee a huge opening. His other franchise, Star Trek, already has a built-in audience.
And then there’s the competition factor, which is significant. Lone Survivor just had the second biggest January opening of all time and it should continue to play well in its sophomore weekend. Recruit is going after the same crowd that Survivor appeals to. And there’s also Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job all opening which cater to African-American, horror, and family audiences, respectively.
Add all that up and I expect Recruit to have a respectable though unspectacular debut over the four day MLK weekend.
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit opening weekend prediction: $25.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)
As we enter a new week, one question will be bothering box office prognosticators like me: How big will Man of Steel open?
Zack Snyder’s take on the Superman story seems to have a lot going for it. For starters, the trailers for it have been terrific. Audience awareness of the film is through the roof. And… well, it’s Superman for goodness sake!
However, the Man of Steel’s track record at the box office underwent an interest journey just seven summers ago. Bryan Singer’s Superman Returns was supposed to be the beginning of a new Supes franchise. It didn’t work out that way. While the picture grossed a solid $84 million in its first five days, moviegoers and critics weren’t impressed with what they saw. Returns went on to gross $200 million domestically, less than its huge budget. The film was considered a box office disappointment.
Warner Bros. went back to the drawing board, bringing in 300 and Watchmen director Snyder. Relative unknown (but not for long) Henry Cavill is Superman/Clark Kent. While the lead may not be a big name, Man of Steel‘s supporting cast is populated with recognizable stars – Amy Adams, Michael Shannon, Kevin Costner, Diane Lane, Laurence Fishburne and Russell Crowe.
Folks seem to be excited about Man of Steel. Those effective trailers have been a plus. As I consider its opening weekend possibilities, the question seems to be: will it gross over $100 million the first weekend or not?
I believe it will. Frankly, anything below nine figures might be considered a letdown. It does come with a reported $225 million budget, after all. When the sixth Fast and Furious earns $120 million over four days, it stands to reason that Man of Steel could make similar bank in three. Somewhere in the $120M range seems like the best bet. There’s also the distinct possibility that it makes upwards of that number. Anything around $140 million and we’re talking Top Ten openings of all time. I’m skeptical it’ll reach that high and I’m more inclined to go a bit lower. However, as the week rolls along and anticipation grows, this could turn out to be a low ball figure.
With that, here’s my best guess:
Man of Steel opening weekend prediction: $124.3 million
We’ll see what happens! Tomorrow on the blog – my prediction for the week’s other newcomer, the all-star comedy This is the End.
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