My big announcement today is the selection of my first candidates for Best Actress in the 2020 Oscar field! If you happened to miss my predictions for the supporting categories and Best Actor, you can find them right here:
Unlike Best Actor, none of my initial top 5 picks here have seen their pictures screened. As discussed in previous posts, 2020 is a mighty speculative year for these early August estimates. The potential contenders are certainly some heavy hitters and it was, frankly, hard to whittle the list to this quintet. 4 of my 5 choices here are past winners. Both Viola Davis and Jennifer Hudson are Supporting Actress victors for 2016’s Fences and 2006’s Dreamgirls respectively. Frances McDormand is a two-time lead Actress winner for 1996’s Fargo and 2017’s Three Billboards Outside, Missouri. Kate Winslet took this prize in 2008 for The Reader. The only non-winner is Michelle Pfeiffer and she’s been nominated three times. If she makes it here, it would mark her first nod in 28 years since 1992’s Love Field.
This is in addition to acclaimed actresses such as Amy Adams, Jessica Chastain, and Julianne Moore as possibilities and up and comers like Jessie Buckley, Liu Yifei, and Rachel Zegler. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there’s the silver screen return of cinematic legend Sophia Loren. She last won an Oscar for Two Women some 60 years ago. Elisabeth Moss has two already released pics for which she’s received solid reviews. Of the two, Shirley seems more viable than the horror hit The Invisible Man.
In 2019, my original late summer projections yielded a whopping 4 of the 5 eventual nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). In my ten other possibilities, I also identified eventual trophy recipient Renee Zellweger as Judy.
Lots of intrigue in this race and here’s the first take:
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Other Possibilities:
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Julianne Moore, The Glorias
Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Liu Yifei, Mulan
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
That completes the acting portions of the early predictions and Best Director is up next! Until then…
Today brings us my second post in my very early and quite speculative predictions on Oscar contenders for this thing we call 2020. I have already generated my initial picks for Supporting Actor and you can peruse it here:
So we arrive at Supporting Actress. In my previous writeup for the gentlemen vying for recognition this year, I went into great detail regarding the challenges of Academy forecasting in 2020. I will not rehash them in detail here, but they obviously involve the COVID-19 pandemic that has created tremendous uncertainty when it comes to release dates. There’s the typical every year questions as well such as whether certain performers will end up in lead or supporting (Olivia Colman in The Father is just one example). Netflix’s The Prom, with Meryl Streep and Nicole Kidman, is another one to watch as far as campaigns (I’ve got them both here for the moment). And I’m currently guessing that Saoirse Ronan will be in this race for Ammonite with her costar Kate Winslet going for Best Actress.
We already have some storylines that could prove fascinating if they pan out. In 2018, Olivia Colman scored a surprise win for The Favourite in lead actress over the more favored Glenn Close in The Wife. In 2020, we could certainly see them go head to head once again in supporting.
When I made my inaugural predictions post in this race in 2019, I correctly identified two of the eventual nominees in my top 5. This included winner Laura Dern in Marriage Story as well as Florence Pugh for Little Women. In my 10 other possibilities, I named Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit. I did not, however, list the other two contenders: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell).
The Cannes Film Festival, originally scheduled for May in the French Riviera, was canceled this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, an announcement today confirmed that the long running fest will exist in some form. And like everything in 2020… it’s a little confusing. A lineup announcement of 56 pictures was put out as being in the Cannes fold. However, these titles will premiere at various other events scheduled later in the year such as the Toronto and Telluride festivals, among others.
Awards watchers know that Cannes is a fertile breeding ground for Oscar hopefuls. Just last year, Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite won top Cannes prize the Palme d’or and eventually won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Some other titles (among many) that premiered at Cannes and got Oscar attention include Apocalypse Now, The Piano, Pulp Fiction, and The Pianist.
So what are some significant 2020 Cannes contenders that could vie for Oscar gold? I’ll give you a quintet and we start with Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. The latest effort from the acclaimed filmmaker is his live-action follow-up to 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel which nabbed a leading nine nominations at that year’s Oscars. The cast is filled with familiar faces and many Anderson regulars including Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Anjelica Huston. It is obviously high on the list for potential players throughout awards season.
Ronan also costars in Ammonite, a period drama from director Francis Lee. Her costar is Kate Winslet and between the two of them they have 11 Academy nominations. Expect plenty of chatter as to their viability in the performance races.
Steve McQueen is premiering not one, but two pictures with the Cannes label – Lovers Rock and Mangrove. The director saw his 2013 pic 12 Years a Slave awarded Best Picture. Both of his new titles focus on race relations in the United Kingdom.
Finally, Pixar is in the mix with Soul. Originally scheduled for summer, it was pushed back to November and is rightfully seen as a top tier contender in the Animated Feature derby. Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, Soul is directed by Pete Docter. He’s responsible for two of the studio’s most acclaimed entries and Oscar winners – 2009’s Up and 2015’s Inside Out.
I would suspect that the 51 other Cannes selections could wind up in the mix as well (especially in the International Feature Film race). Time will tell, but the Cannes label will carry on in 2020 (albeit under unforeseen and unique circumstances).
The family drama Blackbird has screened at the Toronto Film Festival to fairly decent critical reaction so far. It’s a remake of the 2014 Danish pic SilentHeart from director Billie August. Roger Michell (he made NottingHill and directed Peter O’Toole to his final Academy nod in Venus) is behind the camera.
Playing a dying woman who gathers her brood for a weekend gathering, it appears Susan Sarandon has the showcase role here over costars Kate Winslet, Mia Wasikowska, Sam Neil, and Rainn Wilson. She’s been Oscar nominated five times and her last inclusion was the one year she won all the way back in 1995 for DeadManWalking.
Blackbird is still seeking stateside 2019 distribution. If it gets that, I’ll predict this flies under the radar for awards voters and that includes Sarandon’s work. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Back at it again with my look back at major Oscar races from 1990 to the present! We’ve arrived at Best Actress. If you missed my previous posts covering the Supporting performers, you can find them here:
As I did with those posts, I’m selecting my top 3 least surprising winners and top 3 upsets. I’m also giving you my personal pick for strongest and weakest fields from the past 28 years.
For starters, here’s the list of winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Kathy Bates, Misery
1991 – Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs
1992 – Emma Thompson, Howards End
1993 – Holly Hunter, The Piano
1994 – Jessica Lange, Blue Sky
1995 – Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking
1996 – Frances McDormand, Fargo
1997 – Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets
1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
1999 – Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry
2000 – Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
2001 – Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball
2002 – Nicole Kidman, The Hours
2003 – Charlize Theron, Monster
2004 – Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2006 – Helen Mirren, The Queen
2007 – Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
2008 – Kate Winslet, The Reader
2009 – Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
2010 – Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2011 – Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2012 – Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2013 – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2014 – Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015 – Brie Larson, Room
2016 – Emma Stone, La La Land
2017 – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
When it comes to Best Actress, I must say it’s probably the race with the least amount of genuine upsets. Nearly every year, there’s a pretty strong front-runner and they win – even more so than in Actor and the Supporting players. Of many non-surprises, here’s my top ones:
3. Holly Hunter, The Piano
Hunter’s work as a mute piano player in Jane Campion’s period piece was the clear favorite over significant competition that included Angela Bassett in What’s Love Got to Do With It? and the previous year’s winner Emma Thompson in The Remains of the Day.
2. Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
One of Hollywood’s biggest stars had already received nods for Steel Magnolias and Pretty Woman and there was little question that Brockovich would earn Roberts her first and only (so far) trip to the Oscar stage.
1. Charlize Theron, Monster
Theron’s metamorphosis into serial killer Aileen Wuornos swept all precursors. The rest of the field was also fairly weak that year, making her the obvious victor.
And now the “upsets”…
3. Kate Winslet, The Reader
While not a surprise when she won Oscar night, the multi-nominated Winslet was expected for much of the year to get a nod for Revolutionary Road instead. Yet it was this Stephen Daldry drama that was selected instead.
2. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
This was a two-way contest between Cotillard and veteran Julie Christie for Away from Her, with many believing the latter had the edge. It didn’t turn out that way.
1. Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry and Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
This #1 comes with a caveat. It wasn’t much of an upset by the time Swank won her double Oscars. What’s interesting here is that she single-handedly denied two prime opportunities for the winless Annette Bening to get a statue for American Beauty and Being Julia.
We move to the fields. For weakest field, I’m selecting 1994 when Jessica Lange won for the little-seen Blue Sky. Other nominees were Jodie Foster in Nell, Miranda Richardson in Tom&Viv, Winona Ryder for Little Women, and Susan Sarandon in The Client.
Strongest group in my opinion goes to 2010 with Natalie Portman’s victorious role in Black Swan. The rest of that impressive field is Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence’s first nomination in Winter’s Bone, and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).
As the poet Rihanna said, The Mountain Between Us is about two individuals who find love in a hopeless place. Or perhaps “Crash Into Me” by Dave Matthews Band is a more appropriate musical metaphor here. Either way, I’d take listening to either track over watching this survival tale again. Based on a 2011 novel by Charles Martin, this melodrama finds Kate Winslet and Idris Elba falling for one another under snow drenched and deadly circumstances.
Alex (Winslet) is a photojournalist racing back home because she’s to be married the next day. Dr. Ben (Elba) is a brain surgeon hustling back to perform surgery on a child. They’re both in Boise dealing with a weather related flight cancellation so the strangers team up and hire a charter flight out. Their pilot and his dog take them wheels up, but not for long. The plane crashes. Alex, Ben, and the canine survive. She’s injured. They’re on a mountain. It’s freezing. Let the survival games ensue.
The film quickly and efficiently puts the two leads and their furry friend in their predicament and wastes little time doing so. We are left with nearly two hours of the duo deciding whether to stay on their mountain perch, repel down for any signs of life, and the other developments we have come to anticipate in the genre (we know that the dog is unlikely to be the only animal around). All the while, we are asked to buy that Alex and Ben are developing a bond deeper than the “I want to live” variety.
It’s a tough sell. That’s somewhat surprising considering that Winslet and Elba are two fine actors and their chemistry is sufficient. It’s the mawkish screenplay that’s the main issue. The script never succeeds in making either lead particularly compelling or three-dimensional. There’s only so much mileage you get from two solid actors acting cold for a couple of hours. The material never rises to their talents. It’s actually Raleigh and Austin (the names of the dogs who were used here) who come out best and give perhaps the sturdiest performances in the movie. Maybe two hours of Raleigh/Austin on his own braving the elements would have been more engaging.
We have arrived at my penultimate weekly Oscar predictions. With the Oscar nods arriving in 8 days, I will be making my final estimates next Monday. And as we get closer and closer to actually knowing the nominees, there are some notable changes today:
Jordan Peele has at last entered my predicted five in the Director category, replacing Steven Spielberg.
Daniel Kaluuya is in Best Actor for the first time, replacing Tom Hanks.
Frances McDormand has taken the #1 spot in Actress over Saoirse Ronan.
In more good news for ThreeBillboards, Sam Rockwell has reached the top spot in Supporting Actor over Willem Dafoe.
Octavia Spencer has replaced Holly Hunter in Supporting Actress.
You can read it all here with those last estimates coming in one week!
Two major developments since last week’s Oscar predictions as the Golden Globes happened and the Production Guild Award nominations came out. Combined with other precursor activity, one thing has become clear to me:
It was time to remove Dunkirk from its months long perch in the #1 slot. It’s fallen to #4 and we finally have a new #1 – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Truth be told, I could have just as easily put The Shape of Water or Lady Bird in that spot. It’s a close race, folks!
Guillermo del Toro replaces Christopher Nolan in the top spot for director, as does Allison Janney in Supporting Actress over Laurie Metcalf.
We are only 15 days away from nominations and here’s my take at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
4. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
5. The Post (PR: 3)
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
9. The Big Sick (PR: 12)
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 13)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
13. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
14. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 8)
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 6)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 9)
9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
7. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
7. The Post (PR: 6)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 2)
3. The Insult (PR: 4)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)
5. In the Fade (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square (PR: 5)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)
9. Felicite (PR: 8)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Icarus (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 4)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)
8. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. LA 92 (PR: 8)
10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Chasing Coral
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 9)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 7)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hostiles
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
10. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Bright (PR: 3)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 6)
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
8. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 7)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Coco (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: 10)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
8. Coco (PR: 8)
9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 4)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
4. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 5)
5. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
8. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following nomination breakdown for each picture –
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
3 Nominations
Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Wonder Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Baby Driver, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Insult, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, City of Ghosts, Icarus
Back at it again with my first 2018 predictions for the Oscars! We are just three weeks away from the reveal of the nominations. On Sunday, a large awards precursor will occur when the Golden Globes air…
Here’s the major developments this week –
For the first time, I’m switching from a predicted nine pictures being nominated to eight. Why? Well, part of it is selfish. I feel rather confident about the eight features predicted. The nine (or ten) spot could be a mix of Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Big Sick, or Mudbound. Perhaps one or two of them sneak in. For now, they’re all out.
Speaking of The Big Sick, I’ve finally put it in the Original Screenplay predictions, which leaves out The Post.
While there’s no changes in the acting races, let’s see how the next three weeks play out. For now, my initial 2018 estimates…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
6. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
7. Get Out (PR: 6)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
11. Mudbound (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 13)
13. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 8)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
8. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 6)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)
9. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beguiled
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 4)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
8. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 9)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 4)
3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)
4. The Insult (PR: 6)
5. The Square (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Fade (PR: 5)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. Felicite (PR: 8)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 5)
4. Strong Island (PR: 7)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Icarus (PR: 3)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: Not Ranked)
8. LA 92 (PR: 4)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Human Flow
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
9. Get Out (PR: 8)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
7. Mudbound (PR: 6)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
10. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Bird
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. Downsizing (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 5)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 9)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 5)
8. The Post (PR: 7)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. Bright (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 3)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 4)
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 7)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 6)
8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coco (PR: 10)
10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)
8. Coco (PR: 10)
9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
3. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 7)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
3 Nominations
Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Mudbound, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, Get Out, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Downsizing, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Molly’s Game, Victoria and Abdul, Bright, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, The Square, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Strong Island, Long Strange Trip
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