Box Office Predictions: February 20-22

Three new titles attempt to take on the lovers of Fifty Shades of Grey and fighters of Kingsman: The Secret Service at the box office this weekend. They are the Kevin Costner sports drama McFarland, USA, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2, and teen comedy The DUFF. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

I don’t expect any of the trio to make much headway among audiences and have them debuting at spots 5-7. While Fifty Shades debuted to fabulous results, it is bound to suffer a huge fall in its sophomore frame. The shrewd Valentine’s Day weekend release and rabid fan base of its source material means many filmgoers rushed to see it right away. Even with the anticipated large drop I foresee, it should still remain on top.

Kingsman: The Secret Service also debuted to impressive results over the holiday weekend. It seems destined to lose around half its audience in weekend two. The SpongeBob Movie and American Sniper should stay third and fourth.

And with that, a top seven predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million (representing a drop of 65%)

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. McFarland, USA

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

7. The DUFF

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (February 13-15)

Fifty Shades of Grey burst onto the box office scene with the highest February opening of all time, surpassing 2004’s The Passion of the Christ. The phenomenon made $85.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, blasting past my $63.1M estimate. It earned $93 million when factoring in Monday’s gross when President’s Day allowed many adults the day off.

Kingsman: The Secret Service brought in the fellas as Fifty brought in the ladies to the tune of $36.2 million, ahead of my $30.6M projection. The comic book based critical hit stands at $41.7 million for the four day weekend.

Last weekend’s champ SpongeBob dropped to third with a strong $31.4 million, besting my $25.7M prediction. The Nickelodeon toon’s total stands at $103.1 million.

American Sniper took fourth with $16.4 million, in line with my $15.3M estimate. Its astonishing cume is at $306 million. Finally, sci fi dud Jupiter Ascending was fifth in its second frame with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.5 million. It has made just $33 million at press time.

That’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

http://youtu.be/dQDilmi8RwI

Box Office Predictions: February 13-15

It’s going to be a busy Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend at the box office as two eagerly awaited titles debut: erotic drama Fifty Shades of Grey, based on the massive bestseller and comic book based spy pic Kingsman: The Secret Service. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/fifty-shades-of-grey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/kingsman-the-secret-service-box-office-prediction/

The two newbies should populate the top two spots this weekend. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water enjoyed a fabulous debut (more on that below) and should lose around half its audience during its sophomore frame. American Sniper should place fourth while Jupiter Ascending (which suffered a rather dismal beginning) is likely to have a huge fall in its second weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $63.1 million

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Jupiter Ascending

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

As previously mentioned, Nickelodeon has a fantastic weekend as sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water had the fifth biggest February opening of all time at $55.3 million or double my meager $27.8M projection. Expect a third Sponge-worthy tale soon without the decade long wait.

American Sniper held up stronger in its fourth wide release weekend with $23.2 million. I predicted $17.7M. The Oscar nominated phenomenon stands at $281 million.

Big budget sci fi actioner Jupiter Ascending stumbled out of the gate with just $18.3 million, just below my $20.9M projection. Bad reviews didn’t help and this marks the third Wachowski directed flop in a row after Speed Racer and Cloud Atlas.

Jupiter wasn’t the only fantasy pic dud of the weekend as Seventh Son took in only $7.2 million, a bit under my $8.9M estimate. The Jeff Bridges starring critical disappointment simply didn’t resonate with its target crowd.

Finally, bear tale Paddington rounded out the top five with $5.2 million – right on target with my $5.3M prediction.

That’s all for now folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 6-8

The reign of American Sniper is likely to end this first full weekend of February as three new titles debut: animated sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, sci-fi epic Jupiter Ascending, and fantasy pic Seventh Son. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/the-spongebob-movie-sponge-out-of-water-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/jupiter-ascending-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/seventh-son-box-office-prediction/

I believe it will be SpongeBob and not Jupiter that will knock Bradley Cooper’s Oscar nominated war pic from its #1 perch, though it could be close. That would leave Sniper dropping to third with Seventh Son debuting fourth and Paddington rounding out the top five.

And with that, a top five predictions for the weekend:

1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

2. Jupiter Ascending

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Seventh Son

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

Box Office Results (January 30-February 1)

Bad weather and the Super Bowl truly did have an effect on the box office this weekend as nearly all titles couldn’t quite match my predictions. As anticipated, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper led the charts for the third week in a row. Yet it dropped much further than my estimate with $30.6 million (I said $42.1M). Regardless it’s made $247M at press time.

With a wholly unimpressive second place debut was Project Almanac, the critically drubbed found footage pic which managed just $8.3 million (far below my $16.4M estimate). With little positive buzz and no recognizable stars, audiences simply chose to ignore it.

Paddington was third with $8.2 million, in line with my $7.7M projection. The bear tale has taken in $50M so far.

The Kevin Costner interracial drama managed an OK start with $6.2 million for fourth, just above my $5.6M prediction.

Jennifer Lopez’s thriller The Boy Next Door dipped from second to fifth with a hefty sophomore drop to $6 million, below my $7.5M projection. The total stands at $24M.

The Wedding Ringer was sixth with $5.6 million (I said $6.7M) and it has made $48M. Oscar nominee The Imitation Game took seventh with $5 million (I predicted $6M) and its impressive total is at $67M.

New thriller The Loft tanked with only $2.7 million – making my $4.8M opening prediction seem way generous. The long delayed pic opened tenth. Same goes for critically acclaimed but Academy ignored A Most Violent Year which made just $1.5 million in its expansion or not even half of my $3.4M projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Jupiter Ascending Box Office Prediction

With a gargantuan reported budget of $175 million, Jupiter Ascending hits theaters Friday and hopes to end the current three week reign of American Sniper. It might be a tall order. Written and directed by Andy and Lana Wachowski who brought us the innovative Matrix in 1999 and its sequels, Jupiter’s science fiction roots could bring in fans of the directors’ work.

Yet that hasn’t worked out too well in the past decade. The Wachowskis follow up features both posted disappointing results domestically. 2008’s heavily hyped Speed Racer managed only $18.5 million in its premiere while 2012’s Cloud Atlas opened to just under $10 million.

I have found the trailers and TV spots for Jupiter a bit curious as it’s underplayed the fact that Channing Tatum is the star. Costars include Mila Kunis, Eddie Redmayne, and Sean Bean. Reviews have yet to publish, but my guess would be mixed notices at best.

The question to me is whether Jupiter Ascending can clear $20 million out of the gate. It was originally planned for a summer 2014 opening, but pushed back with the typical excuse of needing more time for special effects shots. I do believe it will just surpass $20M, but not by much and that additional time away from a plum summer slot won’t make much difference.

Jupiter Ascending opening weekend prediction: $20.9 million

For my prediction on The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/the-spongebob-movie-sponge-out-of-water-box-office-prediction/

For my Seventh Son prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/seventh-son-box-office-prediction/

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