Apologies in advance for the pun, but Warner Bros is hoping for a “beary” pleasing result when Paddington2 debuts next weekend. It arrives three years after the original posted stellar results stateside during the MLK four-day frame. The family pic brings back Ben Whishaw as the voice of the title bear made famous by a series of childrens stories. Paul King returns in the director’s chair, as do cast returnees Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, and Peter Capaldi. New but familiar faces to the series include Hugh Grant and Brendan Gleeson.
The sequel received a bit of unexpected publicity this fall as it was originally to be distributed by the Weinstein Company. When controversy swirled around Harvey Weinstein, Warner swooped in and picked up distribution rights. The well-reviewed predecessor premiered in January 2015 to a $25 million long weekend opening with a $76 million eventual haul. Part 2 has already taken in nearly $100 million overseas and has critics on its side, with a 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
There is still competition out there for family audiences as Jumanji should still be posting solid grosses. The sequel may not quite match the earnings of the first, but I’ll predict it manages to top $20 million out of the gate.
Paddington2 opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The first full weekend of 2018 begins with one major new release – Insidious: The Last Key, the fourth entry in the Blumhouse horror franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As I see it, the newbie looks poised for a third place showing. The top two should be held by Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. However, unlike the last two weekends, I don’t see it in that order.
Jumanji came within a half million dollars of unseating Jedi for the four-day New Year’s weekend. I’ll predict it has a smaller percentage drop and rises to the top spot in weekend #3.
I also see The Greatest Showman vaulting above Pitch Perfect 3 to stay in the #4 position.
Here’s my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $29.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Insidious: The Last Key
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
5. Pitch Perfect 3
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
Box Office Results (December 29-January 1)
The year ended with a box office photo finish between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, adding some excitement as Luke Skywalker and company nearly were knocked off their #1 perch.
Jedi managed to take the top spot with $66.8 million (below my four-day estimate of $77.8 million) to bring its total to $531 million. While this is well below what Force Awakens earned, Jedi did become 2017’s highest grossing film over Disney’s Beauty and the Beast.
Jumanji was right behind with $66.3 million (topping my $58 million forecast) for a total of $185 million thus far. As mentioned above, look for this to vault to #1 this weekend.
Pitch Perfect 3 was third with $21.6 million compared to my $25.1 million prediction in its second weekend for a $68 million overall gross.
The Greatest Showman was close behind in fourth with $20.9 million, displaying great legs and easily eclipsing my $14.9 million projection. It’s at $54 million overall.
Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $14.8 million (I said $12.5 million) for $57 million total.
Coco was sixth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) for a $182 million tally.
All the Money in the World took the seven spot with a solid $7.2 million compared to my $5.2 million prediction for $14 million thus far.
Darkest Hour was eighth with $7 million (I said $7.3 million) and $19 million total.
Downsizing was ninth at $6.2 million (I said $6.1 million) for $16 million overall while The Shape of Water was 11th at $4.7 million (I said $5.7 million) and it’s also made $16 million.
I incorrectly had Father Figures outside the top ten, but it was 10th with $4.9 million and $14 million overall.
Well folks – here we are as 2017 closes out with another four-day holiday weekend and it’s enough to make a great mathematician’s head spin.
Blogger’s note: I am not a great mathematician. Nevertheless, I will plow forward with estimates as there’s no new releases. Yet there are a multitude of holiday holdovers looking to match or even surpass what they accomplished this past Christmas weekend.
You have to travel all the way to 2006 for the last time Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a Monday. When that occurred 11 years ago, the bulk of pictures significantly exceeded the three-day grosses from the December 22-24 frame. Most even experienced an uptick from the Yuletide four-day frame. We should see that happen again as moviegoers have lots of free time during this end of year period, they’re using those gift certificates, and the kiddos are off school.
Here’s how I have the top 10 looking to close out another year on the box office charts:
**Please note that the increases noted would be from the three-day Christmas grosses (22-24) to the four-day New Year’s weekend predictions…
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $77.8 million (representing an increase of 9%)
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $58 million (representing an increase of 59%)
3. Pitch Perfect 3
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million (representing an increase of 26%)
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing an increase of 69%)
5. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 71%)
6. Coco
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 82%)
7. Darkest Hour
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing an increase of 88%)
8. Downsizing
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)
9. The Shape of Water
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing an increase of 90%)
10. All the Money in the World
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (December 22-25)
It was indeed a bustling Christmas weekend as some newbies rose above expectations while others fell considerably short. There were also impressive expansions of awards contenders.
Yet as anticipated, Star Wars: The Last Jedi easily took the top spot in weekend #2. However, it did so with numbers far short of my estimate. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise took in $99 million (well short of my $129 million estimate) for an overall tally of $395 million.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle gave Sony reason to celebrate with an estimated (final number still not in on Wednesday at noon for some reason) $55.4 million over the four-day. This tops my $40.5 million prediction. Since its Wednesday debut, Jungle has amassed $72 million (above my $55.1 million take). It would appear this franchise will continue on.
Pitch Perfect 3 opened in third to a decent $26.4 million. Still, that’s under my $33.6 million forecast and well under what its predecessor achieved two years ago.
Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman posted fourth with $14.4 million for the four-day and $19 million since its Wednesday start. These are a touch under my respective estimates of $16.1 million and $22.4 million. That’s a tad underwhelming, but I see it holding up well this weekend.
Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $11.2 million) for a $29 million overall tally.
Coco was sixth with $8.1 million (I said $8.8 million) as the Pixar flick has grossed $164 million total.
Debuting in seventh and quite disappointingly was Matt Damon’s Downsizing at just $7.6 million compared to my $11.7 million prediction. With mixed critical reaction and poor word-of-mouth, look for this to diminish fast.
Darkest Hour, which boasts Best Actor Oscar front-runner Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, was 8th as it expanded its theater count. It grossed $5.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 10.
Besides Downsizing, the other new flop of the weekend was Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. The poorly reviewed pic opened ninth at just $5.4 million (under my $8.6 million estimate).
The Shape of Water (another Oscar contender) took 10th as it opened wider with $4.4 million. Again, I missed the mark and had this outside the top 10.
And that does it for now, ladies and gents! It’s been quite a treat bringing you my box office predictions for 2017 and it will continue into 2018! Until then…
Well, it’s Christmas week at the box office and that creates one busy time with FIVE new pictures debuting either Wednesday or Friday. They are: fantasy action reboot/sequel Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle with Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart, musical comedy sequel Pitch Perfect 3, Hugh Jackman’s musically inclined The Greatest Showman, Matt Damon’s sci-fi dramedy Downsizing, and Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. You can read my detailed prediction posts on them all here:
It doesn’t end there. Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World, the well-publicized crime drama due to its recasting of Kevin Spacey debuts on Christmas Day (Monday). Its grosses will only factor in for its one day earnings this weekend. I’ll predict $3.2 million, which should put it outside the top 10.
And there are awards hopefuls expanding their theater counts. Both The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour are expected to do so. Either of them (especially Water) could factor into the top 10 based on the number of screens. However, I’m not including either (yet) without theater counts. I’ll revise my top 10 if they creep in.
As I see it, Jumanji is riding a wave of good buzz and decent reviews and I have it placing second. Pitch Perfect 3 is its most serious competitor and part 2 did totally unexpected numbers a couple of years back. I still have it third.
The rest of the top five could be filled with other newbies The Greatest Showman and Downsizing. The Christmas weekend often sees meager drops for holdovers, especially for family fare. That could benefit both Ferdinand and Coco. The former could stay in the top 5 depending on how Downsizing performs.
And then we get to Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which just had the 2nd highest domestic opening of all time (more on that below). Over the last two Christmas weekends, we’ve seen both Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story enter their sophomore weekends and experience drops in the high 30s. It’s worth noting that the Awakens dip was over a three-day weekend and not 2017’s four-day frame. I still foresee Jedi dwindling about 39% for what should easily be a return weekend atop the charts.
Whew. OK… and with that, my top 10 predictions for the four-day holiday frame:
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $129 million (representing a drop of 41%)
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $40.5 million (Friday to Monday), $55.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
3. Pitch Perfect 3
Predicted Gross: $33.6 million
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (Friday to Monday), $22.4 million (Wednesday to Monday)
5. Downsizing
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
6. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 16%)
7. Coco
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 12%)
8. Father Figures
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
9. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 14%)
10. Daddy’s Home 2
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 11%)
**The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour screen counts could alter top ten on Thursday (12/21)
Box Office Results (December 15-17)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi had no trouble landing the second biggest opening ever behind its predecessor The Force Awakens. The eighth episode in the vaunted franchise took in $220 million, right on target with $219.7 million prediction. Disney should be ecstatic with this result. Jedi should easily top the box office for the foreseeable future.
The Jedi effect caused some newcomers and holdovers to fall below my estimates. Animated Ferdinand debuted in second with $13.4 million, under my $18.6 million projection. The good news? As seen above, it should experience a nice hold entering this weekend.
Coco was third with $9.9 million (I was a bit higher at $11.2 million) for $150 million total.
Wonder was in the four spot with $5.2 million (I said $4.9 million) to bring its earnings to $109 million.
Justice League rounded out the top 5 with $4.3 million (I said $4.2 million) for $219 million overall.
Daddy’s Home 2 was sixth with $3.8 million. I incorrectly held it outside the top 6. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg sequel has made $96 million and should easily cross the century mark this weekend.
Finally, I incorrectly had The Disaster Artist in my top 6, but it suffered a hefty decline and placed 8th with $2.7 million compared to my more generous $4.3 million. The James Franco pic stands at $13 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… and Merry Christmas from your trusty blogger!
Blogger’s Note (12/20/17): I am revising my PP3 estimate from $40.6 million for the four-day to $33.6 million.
The Bellas are back for the holidays as PitchPerfect3 hits theaters next Friday. Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, Hailee Steinfeld, Brittany Snow, Anna Camp, Alexis Knapp, and Hana Mae Lee are among returnees alongside Elizabeth Banks and John Michael Higgins. Newcomers to the series include Ruby Rose and John Lithgow. Trish Sie directs.
The 2012 original was a sleeper hit which grossed $65 million and then became more of a sensation once it became available for home viewing. The summer 2015 sequel shocked all prognosticators with a $69 million opening weekend (topping its predecessor’s entire domestic run) and $184 million overall.
It’s no surprise therefore that Universal Pictures wanted a third helping of accapella comedy. Two and a half years later, Pitch3 faces competition even in its own musical genre with Hugh Jackman’s TheGreatestShowman debuting two days prior. That said, the Bellas appear to have a built-in audience and it could be dangerous to underestimate them.
I still believe Pitch2 could turn out to be the high water mark in the franchise. A debut in the low to mid 40s would probably put part 3 in the #3 spot behind the second weekend of StarWars and the first for Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle. Yet with its reported smallish budget of $45 million, that should still be music to the studio’s ears.
PitchPerfect3 opening weekend prediction: $33.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (12/20/17): My Jumanji prediction has been lowered.
Even with the considerable competition including the second weekend of StarWars: TheLastJedi, animated fare like Ferdinand and Coco, and a slew of other holiday wide releases, Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle looks primed for a healthy box office haul. The board game related comedic adventure follows up on the 1995 Robin Williams hit with a cast that includes Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Karen Gillan, Bobby Cannavale, and Nick Jonas. Jake Kasdan directs.
It doesn’t hurt that Johnson and Hart are two of the more bankable stars around (their collaboration CentralIntelligence was a blockbuster). It also helps that the wealth is usually spread around on Christmas weekend. Jumanji debuts on Wednesday next week as it looks to play well throughout the long weekend frame.
Kids should turn out if they’re not clamoring to see Jedi a second time. The X factor here that makes me believe it could over perform? It’s garnering surprisingly solid buzz with a Rotten Tomatoes score currently at 82%. An even more important factor could be the nostalgia one as older moviegoers are quite familiar with the 22-year-old original. We already have witnessed how that dynamic propelled JurassicWorld to amazing numbers.
Jumanji will be no Jurassic, but I certainly believe a four-day take in the mid 40s and mid 60s six-day take is quite doable. That should put it in second after Jedi for the holidays.
Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle opening weekend prediction: $40.5 million (Friday to Monday), $55.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my The Greatest Showman prediction, click here:
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