Oscar Predictions: How to Train Your Dragon

All three How to Train Your Dragon features from DreamWorks Animation have received Best Animated Feature nominations and all lost to Disney. In 2010, the original fell short to Toy Story 3. Four years later, the sequel couldn’t overcome Big Hero 6. 2019’s The Hidden World didn’t get more votes than Woody and Buzz once again with Toy Story 4.

This Friday, Dean DeBlois (who directed the Dragon trilogy) returns behind the camera with the live-action rendering of part 1 with a sequel already in the works. Cast members include Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Nick Frost, Julian Dennison, Gabriel Howell, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, Murray McArthur, and Gerard Butler.

The fantasy adventure looks to slay the box office this weekend. Could it keep the streak going of Oscar nods for the series? Reviews are mostly solid with 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. It is worthy of note that both numbers are lower than the three pictures preceding it. That said, Costume Design and Sound are long shot possibilities. Where DreamWorks could mount a legit campaign is in Visual Effects, but expect plenty of competition for those five spots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction

DreamWorks is looking for their live-action remake of How to Train Your Dragon to breath some fire (sorry) into the box office when it opens June 13th. Updating their 2010 animated hit that spawned two sequels, Dean DeBlois (maker of the drawn Dragon trilogy) directs. The cast includes Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Gerard Butler, Nick Frost, Gabriel Howell, Julian Dennison, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, and Murray McArthur.

This is a subgenre that has served Disney well in recent years and this summer with Lilo & Stitch (DeBlois made the 2002 original). DreamWorks should follow suit and this appears poised to achieve the best franchise opening thus far with room to spare. The original 15 years ago started with $43 million. 2014’s sequel improved upon that with $49 million while 2019’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World earned $55 million. While each premiere improved upon its predecessor, the first Dragon has the best overall domestic take ($217 million) followed by #2 ($177 million) and #3 ($160 million).

Some estimates have this approaching nine figures, but I’ll hedge my bets and go with mid to high eighties.

How to Train Your Dragon opening weekend prediction: $84.3 million

For my Materialists prediction, click here:

Materialists Box Office Prediction

Godzilla vs. Kong Review

Adam Wingard’s Godzilla vs. Kong is lighter than its MonsterVerse predecessor Godzilla: King of the Monsters from 2019. I don’t just mean lighter in tone (which it is), but actually lighter where it counts. When the two title character titans clash, we can actually see it. That’s an improvement over what transpired two years ago when Godzilla’s battles were too dimly lit or obscured by pounding rain. That’s a major plus, but not every aspect of this franchise has leveled up. The human characters are still an uninteresting and bland group. We have fine actors whose primary responsibility is to talk about the massive CGI combatants and react to what they’re doing. Their character development is a secondary consideration. That said – we’re not here for that, are we? This is the culmination of three pictures leading to a movie being named Godzilla vs. Kong and it frequently manages to deliver.

We last left King Kong in the 1970s during Kong: Skull Island and Godzilla in the aforementioned Monsters when he successfully warded off King Ghidorah and others. The fourth franchise entry picks up five years after Monsters as Kong is being monitored by Monarch on his native island. His human contact is mostly with linguist Dr. Andrews (Rebecca Hall) and her deaf adopted daughter Jia (Kaylee Hottle), who’s a native of the island. A magazine cover identifies the doctor as the “Kong Whisperer”, but it’s clearly Jia who’s found the most sincere connection with the massive ape. Also on Kong patrol is geologist Dr. Lind (Alexander Skarsgard).

While Kong is living a pretty chill existence on Skull Island, Godzilla’s fiery temper unexpectedly flares up. The not so jolly green giant has resurfaced to do lots of property destruction. His inexplicable attitude adjustment causes the CEO of APEX (Demian Bichir) to recruit Kong to solve this dilemma. APEX is a big shadowy corporation that sells itself as trying to solve the Titans problem. That doesn’t gel with conspiracy theorist Bernie (Brian Tyree Henry) and he’s got sympathizers with Madison Russell (Millie Bobby Brown, returning from Monsters) and her nerdy buddy Josh (Julian Dennison). Madison’s dad, played by Kyle Chandler, also reprises his Monsters role.

Enough with the plot which also involves specialized vehicles zooming through gravity fields. All of this is a prelude to watching Godzilla and Kong fight. It happens early (no shades of the slow buildup of 2014’s Godzilla) and round 1 transpires on water and is gloriously lighted for our entertainment.

The main event is in Hong Kong and that’s when we learn why Godzilla is being so irritable (hint: corporate greed is a factor). The climactic matchup is preceded by some fairly dull scenes with humans. No performance is bad. They’re just inconsequential with the exception of Hottle’s Jia in a winning performance. As long as we’re able to ignore the poor people in the buildings that are demolished with Kong and Godzilla’s every twitch and stumble, these skirmishes are expertly staged and enjoyable. I’d put it a notch below 2014’s Godzilla stand-alone from Gareth Edwards, but a hair above Kong: Skull Island and certainly ahead of Monsters. This delivers on its title well enough and is lit properly.

*** (out of four)

Deadpool 2 Movie Review

Two years ago, Deadpool was a breath of filthy fresh air in the superhero genre with Ryan Reynolds triumphing in bringing the title character to the big screen (as we forget X–Men: Wolverine ever existed… sort of). No one was sure whether a very R rated comic book protagonist could succeed with audiences, but he did and then some. The inevitable sequel risks the chance of having a been there, done that vibe. For a while, Deadpool 2 comes dangerously close to being that. The self referential jokes and carefree energy threatens to make part II nothing more than a featherweight viewing with a few clever gags thrown in. Luckily, Deadpool gets his groove back in time to make it something a little more. Does it match the quality of its predecessor? No, but there’s certainly moments (especially in the second half) that work very well.

We open with Wade Wilson, aka Mr. Pool, having a demented ball fighting sex traffickers and other baddies while in his blissful romance with soul mate Vanessa (Morena Baccarin). Some complications interrupt his happy-go-lucky routine and he soon finds himself in a bad way. He finds teenage mutant Russell (Julian Dennison) with flames for fists that he struggles to protect from future traveling soldier Cable (Josh Brolin, summer 2018’s villain du jour). Deadpool also assembles a motley crew of a team known as X-Force (which even he knows is a derivative monicker). For those who’ve witnessed our hero in action before, we know that none of this is exactly pulled off with expert precision. It is a joy to welcome back some of his unconventional crime fighting partners, particularly Karan Soni’s taxi driving sidekick.

The first half of Deadpool 2 is equipped with some humorous cameos and quips galore. And so is the second half. The difference is that for the first hour or so, the pic seems a bit unfocused and content to coast on its meta merits. It isn’t until some of the new characters motivations are explained that the follow-up gathers that needed focus. Once that happens, the gags work better. It also helps that the action sequences seem to jump up a notch towards the end.

One item that doesn’t change is the commitment that Reynolds brings to his beloved character. He clearly loves playing the part and it shows. Brolin, like his Thanos In Avengers: Infinity War, plays an antagonist with some actually understandable motivation for the second time in a month. He’s no Thanos, but he’s a reasonably interesting dude. Part II delves more into Deadpool’s connection with the X-Men and occasionally in ways that induce well-earned laughter.

The originality factor that made Deadpool such a welcome addition to an always growing genre over can’t be replicated here. However, enough of the winking dirty charms we experienced in 2016 are present.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Deadpool 2

Last night, Deadpool 2 set the Thursday preview record for an R rated feature and the sequel could well be on its way to the best debut ever for a picture with that rating. It might be easy to forget now, but the original Deadpool in 2016 likely came close to receiving some Oscar nods. The pic did receive nominations for both the film itself and Ryan Reynolds for Best Actor in the Musical/Comedy races at the Golden Globes.

Many of the reviews for the sequel claim part two is an improvement on the first (though certainly not all). The original ended up at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and the follow-up currently sits at 85%. So it’s worth at least asking: could Deadpool 2 garner the Academy’s attention in a way that the first barely missed out on? The short answer is… probably not. No comic book adaptation has managed a Best Picture nomination and this won’t change that. On the other hand, Black Panther just might.

Furthermore, while many superhero adaptations like Panther and Avengers: Infinity War could play in the technical races, that doesn’t really hold true here. Bottom line: Deadpool 2 is highly unlikely to change this franchise receiving no love from Oscar voters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dXKLjrDf20

Deadpool 2 Box Office Prediction

The nation’s favorite R rated superhero is back in theaters next weekend when Deadpool 2 debuts. Arriving two years plus after the original became a massive hit, Ryan Reynolds returns in the title role with David Leitch (director of Atomic Blonde) taking over the behind the camera duties from Tim Miller. Costars include Monica Baccarin, Julian Dennison, Zazie Beetz, T.J. Miller, Brianna Hildebrand, Leslie Uggams, and the summer’s comic book villain of choice, Josh Brolin as Cable (coming off his acclaimed work as Thanos in Avengers: Infinity War).

In February of 2016, Deadpool took in an astonishing $132 million and grossed $363 million overall domestically. That still stands as the largest R rated debut of all time and it sits only behind The Passion of the Christ for all-time earners with that rating. There is a legitimate possibility that part two manages to exceed that opening weekend haul.

I’ll project that Deadpool 2 manages to just do that with a debut approaching $140 million.

Deadpool 2 opening weekend prediction: $137.4 million