The month of January seems destined to go out with a whimper as thriller Miller’s Girl with Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega is the sole wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The top five may look very similar to this previous frame except the earnings will be even smaller. Mean Girls could manage a third weekend at #1 with a drop close to 50%. If it drops more precipitously, that could open the door for Wonka or The Beekeeper to vault over it.
Migration and Anyone but You are likely to stay put in fourth and fifth.
You’ll notice I haven’t discussed Miller’s Girl yet and that’s because my $2.2 million leaves it on the outside looking in.
Here’s my top 5 forecast:
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $6 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
4. Migration
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
5. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (January 19-21)
Mean Girls, despite a hefty 59% drop, was perched in 1st for the second weekend with $11.6 million. That’s just under my $12.6 million prediction as the ten-day gross reached $50 million.
Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper was the runner-up again with $8.6 million (right on target with my $8.7 million projection) for $31 million thus far.
Wonka was third with an additional $6.7 million (I said $6 million) to bring its haul to $187 million with $200 million approaching.
Migration made $5.4 million for fourth. I went with $4.9 million as the animated feature is getting to nine digits with $94 million.
Anyone but You continued its impressive run in fifth with $5.4 million, on pace with my $5.5 million call. The tally is $64 million.
Lastly, sci-fi thriller I.S.S. was a dud. It started off in seventh with $3 million, in range with my $2.6 million take.
Lionsgate is seeking viewers for Miller’s Girl when it opens on January 26th, but the challenge could be audiences even knowing it exists. The pic from debut director/writer Jade Halley Bartlett stars Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega. The trailer might remind one of a late 80s/early 90s style Fatal Attraction clone. Costars include Gideon Adlon, Bashir Salahuddin, Dagmara Domińczyk, and Christine Adams.
With a coproduction credit from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, Girl hopes that Ortega’s Wednesday fans will turn up to watch her on a Friday-Sunday at the multiplex. I haven’t seen a theater count for this yet and that could alter my forecast. The marketing campaign seems scant and my prediction reflects it. Miller’s might not be crossing $3 million.
Miller’s Girl opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million
There’s more than one way to clean a knife after piercing a victim’s skin in the Scream flicks. The filmmakers appear determined to give this series nine lives or more as the sixth installment finds new terrorizers to fill the Ghostface mask. Let’s quickly go through the strange name game as 2022’s Scream was really Scream V. Termed as a requel, Urban Dictionary considers that a “sequel to a movie that functions somewhere between a sequel, a reboot, and a remake”. Unfortunately Scream (’22 version) didn’t function that well at all. With directors Matt Bettinelli and Tyler Gillett taking over directorial duties from the late Wes Craven, they showed lots of appreciation for the original from 1996. Like the other follow-ups, it couldn’t compare to the fresh satiric edge that part 1 had. In fact, despite a well-executed slashing or two, I’d rank it fifth of the lot.
Now I’d rank it sixth because Scream VI is a minor improvement. It picks up a year after the events of the fifth. We’re not in Woodsboro anymore as Sam Carpenter (Melissa Barrera), daughter of the OG Ghostface Billy Loomis, has relocated to the Big Apple. She’s there mostly to keep watch over little sister Tara (Jenna Ortega), now a college freshman along with sister and brother Mindy (Jasmin Savoy Brown) and Chad (Mason Gooding). They call themselves the Core 4 since they managed to survive the havoc wreaked by Sam’s ex-bf Richie in the last go-round.
The dwindling legacy characters returning are Gail Weathers (Courtney Cox), the reporter who’s always looking for a way to make a buck from the mayhem. There’s also Kirby Reed (Hayden Panettiere), who played an integral role in Scream 4. She was the best friend to the eventual Ghostface in that one. And while part four was one of the better sequels, I would understand if you forgot her character. Now Kirby is an FBI agent who shows up to help (which obviously makes her a quick suspect). I wonder if her appearance might be due to Sidney (Neve Campbell) not being present. Word is they didn’t want to show her the money to appear.
While the predecessor often paid homage to Scream ’96 (released the same month when Mason Gooding’s dad Cuba was screaming “Show me the money!” to Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire), this has its winks to Scream 2 from 1997 by being set in the higher ed world. Some of the brutal sequences are well-constructed. The opening with Samara Weaving as a college professor on a blind date is a clever way to start.
Part of the fun in the Scream pics is figuring out the slayers and it’s usually more than one. There’s a few to consider with Sam’s neighbor and secret lover (Josh Segarra), the detective father (Dermot Mulroney) of her roommate Quinn (Liana Liberato), and Chad’s roommate Ethan (Jack Champion). And who knows? Maybe Papa Billy’s demonic genes are infecting Sam.
As we’ve seen before in this franchise, there’s a scene where a character explains that the “rules have changed!”. And nothing is as it seems. The NYC locale change is welcome (Ghostface brandishing a shotgun in a bodega is fresh new territory). Scream VI gets by for a while in the new setting and with its furious piercings. Sadly it is not faster. The 122 minute runtime is a series record and when we reach the third act, the rules haven’t changed much with the unmasking reveals. That portion is the biggest letdown. There’s only so many ways to inject life into these deaths, but they’ll find ways as long as we continue to show them the money.
In January 2022, Scream successfully resurrected the franchise that Wes Craven began in 1996. A sequel was approved immediately and Scream VI slashes into multiplexes March 10th. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett are back directing with Melissa Barrera, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Mason Gooding, Jenna Ortega (whose star has risen thanks to Wednesday), Hayden Panettiere, and Courtney Cox reprising their roles from prior installments. Other costars include Jack Champion, Henry Czerny, Liana Liberato, Dermot Mulroney, Tony Revolori, and Samara Weaving. For the first time, Neve Campbell is not among the cast.
In 2011, Scream 4 marked the financial nadir of the bunch when it made only $38 million domestically. A silent decade between entries got the nostalgia juices flowing as last year’s Scream took in $30 million in its first three days and $81 million total stateside. With a B+ Cinemascore (quite solid for a horror pic), anticipation for this sequel should be high.
Scream VI appears poised to challenge the record opening weekend for the series. That belongs to Scream 3 with $34 million and tracking suggests Ghostface could wield the power to top that number. I’ll forecast it manages to get there and perhaps top $40 million.
Scream VI opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
My six-part series of performers who had a lot shaking at multiplexes continues with Austin Butler. Like previous subject Jenna Ortega, he first gained recognition in small screen CW fare such as The Carrie Diaries. By 2019, he was turning up in a smallish role for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
This year, he broke out in a massive way as the title character in Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis biopic. Critics and audiences immediately lavished praised for his embodiment of the legend. In addition to its $151 million domestic haul, Butler can already claim Golden Globe and Critics Choice Best Actor nods. The Academy will surely follow suit and he’s a threat to take gold (along with Brendan Fraser in The Whale and Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin).
Butler closed out the year hosting SNL with a heartfelt monologue honoring his late mother. He’ll be seen in the Dune sequel in 2023 as well as The Bikeriders with Tom Hardy and Jodie Comer.
Going from a relative unknown to a headliner in 2022… Butler did it. My Year Of posts will culminate with a character actor with a lot on her ’22 menu…
My posts covering actors who had an impactful 2022 continues with a new Scream Queen.
Before we get to her, I came close to giving Jamie Lee Curtis her own dedicated write-up. The OG SQ might nab a first Oscar nomination for her supporting work in Everything Everywhere All at Once and she finished up her iconic role (probably right?) as Laurie Strode in Halloween Ends.
Just as Curtis was concluding her participation in a vaunted horror franchise, 20-year-old Jenna Ortega was making her presence known in another. Some viewers first saw her on the CW series Jane the Virgin. In 2021, Ortega drew acclaim for her more grown-up performance in the HBO Max drama The Fallout. It was this year that she broke out in another genre via January’s Scream. With over $80 million in its domestic coffers, she’ll be back in March for Scream VI.
More kudos followed in March for Ti West’s exploitation homage X. Ortega played a crew member on a porn set who gets more than she bargained for out of the experience. X marked the spot for many critics with its 94% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Ortega’s frighteningly good ’22 went into overdrive with Netflix’s Wednesday. From Tim Burton, the blend of comedy and horror and its 8 episodes cast the actress as Wednesday Addams from the The Addams Family. Debuting last month, it shot to #1 on the streamer in over 80 countries and holds the record for most hours viewed for a series in the first week of release. In others words, it’s a phenomenon every day of the week.
Needless to say, a second season is already in the planning stages. With her Scream sequel on deck and a role in the thriller Finestkind with Ben Foster and Tommy Lee Jones coming up, Ortega should continue to make her spooky presence known. My Year Of posts will continue with another actor who started out on the CW and had a whole lot shaking on the silver screen this year…
The 28th Critics Choice Awards airs January 13th and the nominations are out on Wednesday. Like the Oscars, there are 10 Best Picture contenders. That’s easy. Then it gets a little weird.
The number of nominees in the other races has fluctuated recently from 5-7. I’m basing my estimates on 2021’s allotment, but it could look different come Wednesday morning when the nominees are announced. That means 6 in Director, the acting derbies, Ensemble, Young Performer, and Cinematography and 5 for the rest.
I’ll have a recap up Wednesday evening with my thoughts and how I performed!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
The Woman King
Women Talking
Alternate:
Elvis
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate:
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate:
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate:
Diego Calva, Babylon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Alternate:
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Alternate:
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Alternate:
Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
Alternate:
Living
Best Acting Ensemble
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking
Alternate:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Young Actor/Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Frankie Corio, Aftersun
Jalyn Hall, Till
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Madeleine McGraw, The Black Phone
Jenna Ortega, X
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Alternate:
Mason Thames, The Black Phone
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate:
Wendell and Wild
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Decision to Leave
EO
RRR
Saint Omer
Alternate:
Close
Best Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate:
The Menu
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King
Alternate:
Living
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Alternate:
Babylon
Best Hair and Makeup
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
The Whale
X
Alternate:
The Woman King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate:
Elvis
Best Score
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Alternate:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Life Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate:
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Nope
RRR
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate:
The Batman
That equates to these movies getting these numbers for nominations:
12 Nominations
The Fabelmans
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Women Talking
7 Nominations
Babylon, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Whale
4 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, She Said, Tár, The Woman King
3 Nominations
Aftersun, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, RRR
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Empire of Light, Till, Triangle of Sadness, X
1 Nomination
The Bad Guys, The Batman, The Black Phone, Decision to Leave, EO, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, Turning Red, Where the Crawdads Sing
We’re used to the virgin in slasher movies. It’s typically a she and she’s usually the one that survives. Ti West’s homage to that genre and other ones has a little demented fun with that character. There’s not a virgin to be found in X, but there’s one who loses her porn flick virginity.
A prologue clues us in that we’ll see a significant body count in what follows. Set in rural Texas circa 1979, a troupe of six travels to a farmhouse to shoot an adult film. The director RJ (Owen Campbell) fancies it to be a cut above the rest of them (they always do in these pics). His girlfriend Lorraine (Jenna Ortega) is part of the skeleton crew who isn’t thrilled to be on the shoot. On the flip side, Bobby-Lynne (Brittany Snow) and her bf Jackson Hole (Scott Mescudi) are proud to be starring in the feature titled The Farmer’s Daughters. Mia Goth is Maxine, coke addled and desperate to be a star. She’s dating Wayne (Martin Henderson), executive producer of the big show.
The aforementioned farmhouse is owned by elderly couple Howard (Stephen Ure) and Pearl (played by Goth in heavy old age makeup). With a revivalist evangelical TV program playing on their set, we rightly assume they aren’t fully aware of what kind of shenanigans their guests are filming. A slow build leads us to discover plenty of secrets about the couple.
X is most obviously a sadistic love letter to 1974’s The Texas Chainsaw Massacre though it telegraphs other influences. It even mentions 1960’s Psycho and how it became a different picture at midpoint. The same can be said here as the one day shoot is completed before a violent night rolls along. Halloween and The Shining get their due as do the cheapie grindhouse and skin flicks of the era it’s set in.
Where X deviates a little from the formula is its occasional rumination on aging. Pearl, in particular, is reminded of what she’s lost in her elder state by the youngsters on her property. Her reaction won’t win her (or the script) any acclaim from the AARP. It does, however, give this a slightly unexpected and intriguing dimension.
My reaction was mixed overall. I found the lighting to be almost too dark at times. That said, there’s one scene in particular (you’ll know) where you’ll be glad it is. While X is well-made and sometimes clever, its biggest fault is a common one for more high minded horror titles. I didn’t find it overly frightening. Furthermore, for a sendup of a brand where the killings are often violently creative – that’s in surprisingly short supply. The most passionate genre disciples will surely sing X‘s praises. I found myself somewhat less devoted.
Set in 1979 and melding the genres of horror with adult filmmaking, Ti West’s X is slated for spots in over 2000 theaters this weekend. The slasher pic (which premiered at South by Southwest days ago) stars Mia Goth, Jenna Ortega (just coming off Scream), Martin Henderson, Brittany Snow, Owen Campbell, and Scott Mescudi (aka Kid Cudi).
Reviews are sharp with a current 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. That said, I do believe its box office potential is limited. Unlike most recent horror titles, it’s not a sequel/remake/prequel/requel. While A24 materials often receives acclaim, they can struggle at multiplexes.
Despite the hefty screen count, I’ll project this struggles to reach $3 million.
Landline phones are looked upon by the new kids of Scream like they’re phonographs, but some things never change with this fourth sequel to the 1996 original. Unlike other horror franchises, I would say there hasn’t been a bad Scream follow-up nor has one come close to approaching the quality of the first. My reception for parts II-IV are fairly similar – passably entertaining and ultimately forgettable. Part V – call it Scream if you want but it’s Scream 5 – is no different and a tad more underwhelming since its new characters add little.
When the ’96 version of Scream came out, Wes Craven and screenwriter Kevin Williamson deftly satirized the slasher genre while also making a scary movie. It’s why Scary Movie four years later didn’t work for me – it was trying to parody something that had already cleverly done it. The rest of the Scream efforts have struggled with the mix as it continually invents new family connections to reveal new Ghostface killers.
In this Scream, Sam (Melissa Barrera) fled the town of Woodsboro five years ago. She makes a hasty return when her high school age sister Tara (Jenna Ortega) is attacked by the now iconic villain. With Sam’s boyfriend Richie (Jack Quaid) and Tara’s student clique as potential suspects, we soon see familiar faces besides Ghostface. Dewey (David Arquette) is divorced from Gale Weathers (Courtney Cox) and no longer the sheriff in town. He reluctantly accepts Sam’s offer to get involved. Sidney (Neve Campbell) has no desire for a hometown return but we know that won’t last.
Sam’s genealogy allows for some slightly more surprising cameos as we try to deduce who the killer(s) are this time around. Some of Tara’s schoolmates fill the Scream bingo card. There’s the Jock, the Movie Buff, and the Virgin. Some of the roles are given a modern update (one of the guys is given the potentially fatal shower scene).
Of course, these characters talk endlessly about sequels and reboots and “requels”. This was a pretty fresh concept a quarter century ago (even if Craven had mined similar territory in New Nightmare). Now there’s precious little more meta to mine. Like the sequels, there’s also the fact that this Scream just isn’t a very scary movie.
Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett take over the reigns as Craven passed in 2015. They clearly have reverence for the series and especially part one. That’s understandable. So did the other ones. Some of them landed their plot points with more precision (Scream 4 managed to have a decent killer reveal and fun third act). All of them were duller cuts and this one strains to properly explain its reason for being despite endless attempts.
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