Universal looks for moviegoers to return to the past when Back to the Future is out for its 40th anniversary on October 31st. The time travel classic from Robert Zemeckis that spawned two sequels features Michael J. Fox, Christopher Lloyd, Leah Thompson, Crispin Glover, Thomas F. Wilson, a DeLorean, the Libyans, and “The Power of Love”.
The power of its re-release could be limited compared to the studio’s recent 50th anniversary reissue of Jaws. That shark tale amassed nearly $10 million in late August in its first three days on around 3200 screens. Future is clocking far less venues at approximately 1900 so mid single digits is likely.
Back to the Future 40th anniversary opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million
One Warner Bros horror flick looks to transfer the #1 spot to another as The Conjuring: Last Rites haunts multiplexes this weekend. We also have Disney releasing their filmed version of the Broadway play Hamilton. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
My mid 50s projection for Last Rites gives it the best opening of the franchise, just outpacing 2018’s The Nun and toppling the $40 million and change starts that the first two proper Conjuring flicks scared up. As mentioned, it will easily replace the WB’s Weapons from its Labor Day weekend perch atop the charts.
Hamilton is a tricky one. It could easily outdo my high single digits forecast, but it’s hard to ignore that audiences have been able to view it on Disney+ for five years. No matter what, it should manage a runner-up debut.
Weapons should place third while 4-5 could be awfully close between Caught Stealing and Freakier Friday.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $58.2 million
2. Hamilton
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Caught Stealing
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)
In a rather quiet Labor Day frame, Weapons returned to #1 with KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event having completed its two-day engagement from the previous frame. Zach Cregger’s missing persons scare fest took in $13 million, falling short of my $15.9 million call over the four-day holiday. The four-week total is $135 million.
Jaws 50th Anniversary swam past my expectations with $11.3 million for second, more than doubling my $5.6 million prediction. Crowds clearly were down for revisiting the shark tale.
Austin Butler crime thriller Caught Stealing nabbed a so-so $9.5 million in third and that was more than my $6.3 million projection.
Freakier Friday was fourth with $8.7 million, in range with my $9.4 million estimate for a four-week tally of $82 million.
Comedic remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman settled for fifth with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.9 million guesstimate.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps was sixth with $6.5 million (I said $6.1 million) for $266 million after six weeks.
Finally, The Toxic Avenger Unrated with Peter Dinklage didn’t crack the top 10 at $2.1 million. I went with $1.8 million.
Three newcomers and one summer classic celebrating a half century in existence will work hard to earn box office dollars this Labor Day weekend. We have comedy remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman, Darren Aronofsky’s crime thriller Caught Stealing starring Austin Butler and Zoë Kravitz, Peter Dinklage in the splatter reboot The Toxic Avenger Unrated, and the 50th anniversary reissue of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
We’ll discuss Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event in the results section below. We know it won’t be #1 since the streamer put it out only as a two-day multiplex event on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend.
That means Weapons should return to the top spot as I don’t see the fresh foursome challenging it. The acclaimed horror flick should remain in the teens as holdovers usually have meager declines or even slight increases over the Friday to Monday of Labor Day weekend compared to the previous weekend.
The Roses could manage the best start of the new titles though I have it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Freakier Friday.
Caught Stealing might be stuck in fourth with The Fantastic Four: First Steps just behind in fifth and the Jaws reissue in sixth.
As for Toxic, my $1.8 million guesstimate puts it far down the charts.
The only placement I’m confident in is Weapons in 1st while the others jockey for position. Keep in mind that these estimates are made for the four-day holiday and here’s how I envision the top six:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
2. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
3. The Roses
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. Caught Stealing
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
6. Jaws 50th Anniversary
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (August 22-24)
After two months plus on the streaming service, Netflix made an unconventional move by releasing a sing-along version of their massive hit KPop Demon Hunters on Saturday and Sunday. They were conventional in not officially reporting its numbers. However, estimates put it at $19.2 million and that’s ahead of my $13.8 million call and easily strong enough for 1st place. With an over $11k plus per screen average, kids had no trouble getting their folks to bring them out. The specialized engagement is only for the aforementioned two days.
Weapons was second with $15.4 million, just under my $16.1 million projection. Zach Cregger’s disappearance tale has amassed $115 million in three weeks.
Freakier Friday was third with $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million forecast. The Disney sequel has taken in $70 million after three weeks.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, in week five, was fourth with $6 million (I said $5.8 million) for $257 million thus far.
The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.2 million call for $66 million in four weeks.
Action sequel Nobody 2 tumbled 60% in its sophomore outing with $3.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $4.8 million. The tally is a mere $16 million.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s noirish comedy Honey Don’t! opened in 8th with $3 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did outshine my $1.8 million prediction.
Celebrating its 50th anniversary is the OG summer blockbuster and it’s out in multiplexes over Labor Day weekend. That would be Steven Spielberg’s Jaws with Roy Scheider, Robert Shaw, Richard Dreyfuss, Lorraine Gary, Murray Hamilton, an unforgettable score, and a mechanical shark that sometimes worked and mostly didn’t.
Unquestionably one of the most influential and iconic pictures in cinematic history, it surpassed The Godfather in 1975 as the highest grossing movie ever (holding that record until Star Wars two years later).
Unadjusted for inflation, Spielberg’s first blockbuster stands at $477 million worldwide (nearly $3 billion in today’s bucks). The milestone birthday could add mid to possibly high single digits over the four-day holiday to its coffers.
Jaws 50th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Coming from the National Lampoon Radio Hour like his costars John Belushi and Gilda Radner and his eventual replacement Bill Murray, Chevy Chase was the original breakout sensation on Saturday Night Live. He was the first person to say “Live from New York, It’s Saturday Night!”. The future star of comedy classics including Caddyshack, Vacation, and Fletch also was the initial anchor giving us the fake news on Weekend Update. And there’s that iconic Landshark sketch. And another with Richard Pryor. And his bumbling Gerald Ford which kickstarted 50 years of unforgettable POTUS impersonations.
With his opener “I’m Chevy Chase and you’re not”, it helped millions of viewers learn his name and brilliant deadpan delivery immediately. Chase’s quick rise to fame kept him on the show just a handful of episodes into season #2. Yet if it not for him, the Norms and Tinas, Colins and Michaels, Jimmys and Seths wouldn’t have followed. #13 will be up soon!
Despite some encouraging early word-of-mouth, horror flick Barbarian could be fairly quiet out of the gate as the only wide release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on it here:
My estimate easily puts it in the top spot, but that’s cold comfort considering I’m projecting a second weekend in a row with no title topping $10 million.
On the more limited front is the Indian adventure Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva. I didn’t do an individual post for it, but the reported 750 venues should limit its potential. With a caveat that this may over perform, I’ll say it manages a fourth place start (though it could just as easily be 2nd or 3rd).
Holdovers Top Gun: Maverick, Bullet Train, and DC League of Super-Pets should fill out the remainder of the high five. Here’s how I see it:
1. Barbarian
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
4. Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (September 2-5)
On its 102nd day of release, Top Gun: Maverick returned to the top spot over a desolate Labor Day weekend with $7.9 million (surpassing my $6.2 million prediction). Tom Cruise’s sequel surpassed Black Panther to become the 5th largest domestic grosser of all time. The total is $701 million. Fifth place is likely where it will stay as #4 is Avatar ($760 million) and it’s got a re-release coming in two weeks before the December sequel.
Bullet Train was second with $7.5 million, ahead of my $6 million projection as it has pulled in $88 million over five weeks. Now might be a good time to mention that National Cinema Day, which priced films for $3 at major chains, probably helped push the numbers up a bit over the holiday.
DC League of Super-Pets was third with $6.7 million (I underplayed it at $4.3 million). The National Cinema Day bump got it to $82 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition added 11 minutes of extra footage and $6.5 million to its considerable coffers. That’s in range with my $7 million guesstimate. Spidey has swung $811 million in the bank.
The Invitation rounded out the top five at $6.1 million (besting my $4.6 million take) for a two-week total of $15 million.
Beast was sixth with $5 million compared to my call of $4.1 million for $26 million overall.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was seventh with $4.5 million and I did not project it. The franchise blockbuster sits at $360 million.
The Jaws re-release was 8th with $3.3 million, on target with my prediction of $3.1 million.
Finally, the Regina Hall/Sterling K. Brown satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. found no love with $1.7 million for 14th place. I said $2.4 million.
Just like last year, the Marvel Cinematic Universe may land atop the charts over Labor Day weekend. This time around, it’ll be with considerably less money… as in, less than one-tenth of what we witnessed in 2021. Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition (with 11 minutes of extra footage) is scheduled for the widest (re)release of the holiday frame.
Steven Spielberg’s OG summer blockbuster Jaws also returns to cinemas. The only true newcomer is the Regina Hall/Sterling K. Brown satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul,, which is also available on streaming via Peacock.
My detailed prediction posts on each are accessible here:
Let’s start with Jesus as I have its $2.4 million projected Friday-Monday offering potentially falling outside of the top ten. There’s a slight chance it could surprise, but I doubt it.
There’s been a narrative developing for awhile that Top Gun: Maverick could manage to return to first position in its 15th week. During Labor Day, popular holdovers do often expand their gross from the previous frame. I expect that will be the case here. However, I do believe Spidey’s 3000 screens (some IMAX) should allow it to swing back to #1 after it originally debuted last December. This should leave the runner-up spot for Maverick or Bullet Train (they should be close). That’s a far cry from this same period in 2021 when Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings decimated the all-time Labor Day record with $94 million.
Jaws is only on a fraction of the webbed superhero’s venues (about 1200) so the possibilities are limited. My estimate of $3.1 million would probably put it in seventh place.
Current champ The Invitation hardly impressed in its premiere (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade, expect it to be one of the only leftovers that does see diminished returns. It should drop to at least fourth while the five spot could be close between DC League of Super-Pets and Beast.
And with that, let’s do a top 7 outlook and keep in mind these numbers are for the four-day holiday:
1. Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition
Predicted Gross: $7 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. The Invitation
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
6. Beast
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
7. Jaws
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (August 26-28)
I’ll go the obvious route… there weren’t many RSVP’s for YA horror tale The Invitation. This is the first time in 15 months that the #1 pic didn’t manage to make over $10 million. The Invitation stumbled with $6.8 million, below my $8.1 million forecast.
Bullet Train was second with $5.6 million (on target of my $5.5 million call) with an overall take of $78 million.
Top Gun: Maverick was third with $4.7 million (I went with $5.2 million) as the juggernaut has now gathered $691 million. The biggest hit of the year is on a glide path to topple Black Panther ($700 million) next and become the fifth largest domestic earner in history.
Beast had a hefty sophomore drop of 58% for $4.8 million and fourth place. That’s under my $5.7 million prediction. The subpar two-week tally is $20 million.
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, as anticipated, plummeted in its second weekend (its genre is extremely front loaded). After a fantastic $21 million start, Hero fell 78% to fifth with $4.6 million (I was more generous at $5 million). After ten days, it’s taken in $30 million stateside.
DC League of Super-Pets was sixth with $4.1 million (I said $4.6 million) for $74 million in its 5 weeks of release.
Finally, George Miller’s Three Thousand Years of Longing was a pricey dud for MGM. The Idris Elba/Tilda Swinton Djinn fantasy, with a reported $60 million budget, opened in 7th with a mere $2.9 million. I thought it could at least manage $4 million. The studio is certainly wishing they hadn’t spent what they did after that performance.
As the summer box office draws to a close, Universal is hoping nostalgic audiences are ready to go back in the water with a reissue of Jaws. The 1975 classic, which vaulted Steven Spielberg to directorial superstardom, hits approximately 1200 venues over the long Labor Day weekend. This is essentially the picture that created the modern blockbuster. It also spawned three sequels and countless knockoffs.
47 years after it first surfaced, I’m a little skeptical this amasses a big audience (it’s still on cable on a very frequent basis). Just two weeks ago, another Spielberg classic went the IMAX route. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial was on nearly 400 screens and made $1 million.
Jaws has the advantage of more screens and an extra day due to holiday. I’ll project that get it just past $3 million. That puts in well below the other Labor Day re-release Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition.
Jaws opening weekend prediction: $3.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition, click here:
I fear that Haley (Kaya Scodelario) will have trouble running into her school’s mascot after the events that transpire in Crawl. She’s a college student attending the University of Florida and she gets the literal treatment to gator chomps. When a Category 5 Hurricane is poised to make landfall, Haley goes searching for searching for her dad Dave (Barry Pepper). Flashbacks show him pushing juvenile Haley hard in the sport of swimming. Their relationship is strained, though that nautical training sure comes in handy here.
When she finds him and their dog Sugar, he’s trapped in the old family home and there’s not one, but two alligators skulking around while the rain pounds away. The pair must use their survival skills to battle all the elements and try to turn their tormentors into boots or luggage (as the former California Governor said in the Arnold not so classic Eraser).
Crawl is short (87 minutes), unambitious, and straightforward. Those adjectives will apply to this review. It’s certainly watchable and clips right along. The gators look pretty menacing and the underwater camerawork is stellar. Director Alexandre Aja has covered this stuff before in Piranha 3D. This is primarily a two person show with Scodelario and Pepper, though you may find yourself rooting hardest for Sugar to pull through. His bark occasionally assists in avoiding the creatures bites.
Even with the brisk running time, the occasional callbacks to the father/daughter dynamic seems tacked on. After all, the exposition of Dave using coaching terms to get Haley to do the breaststroke isn’t exactly Quint recounting the events of the USS Indianapolis. And this Jaws knockoff is a standard and sometimes effective diversion.
There’s not a whole lot to add to the finned villain genre some 43 years after Jaws, but TheMeg tries to do so in the form of size. The title refers to a megalodon. That’s a creature long thought to be extinct. It’s so big that it can eat normal sharks as a light snack. Size matters in this movie. We actually have two gargantuan megs that a crew must contend with. The human group of potential chum is led by Jason Statham, his massive biceps, and that voice that sounds as if he gargles gravel.
Statham plays Jonas and he’s still reeling from an incident five years ago in which he lost a group of sailors on a submarine. Jonas is convinced that an unknown and large ocean dweller caused that tragedy. As a side note, it’s interesting that the screenplay portrays him as despondent over that loss. Other characters later on seem to develop a process of rapid grieving for people they actually know.
Yet we don’t watch these pictures for lessons on dealing with death. We watch to see inventive ways for it to happen. Jonas is lured back into the water when his ex-wife (Jessica McNamee) and her mates are trapped deep underwater with that big fish lurking. She’s an employee of Mana One, a cool looking research facility looking for new species. The corporation is headed by an eccentric (is there any other kind?) billionaire played by Rainn Wilson. Li Bingbing is an oceanographer with a precocious young daughter who also serves as Jonas’s immediate love interest. Recognizable faces like Cliff Curtis and Ruby Rose are also along for the ride.
TheMeg never quite develops a satisfying identity. The PG-13 rating eliminates the opportunity for gory delights. There’s winking humor and even some of it lands. And there’s also dramatic moments that seem to want to be taken seriously. It spills its creative guts early on and essentially repeats itself. A third act that finally lets the monster expose himself to the beach going masses feels truncated.
Statham throws himself into the role and it’s admirable. We do see a couple of man vs. beast exchanges that I hadn’t seen before. However, this doesn’t rise to the level of genuine guilty pleasure or generate enough suspense, humor, or horror. They’re too infrequent to completely excuse the sizable gaps of mediocrity.
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