The Accountant Box Office Prediction

It’s been a busy year for Mr. Ben Affleck as he made his debut as the Caped Crusader in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and will unveil his next directorial effort, the Prohibition era crime drama Live by Night, this December. And that’s not all because next weekend comes The Accountant.

The action thriller stars Batfleck and is directed by Gavin O’Connor, who’s had a mixed filmography with critical and commercial pleasers like Miracle and Warrior. There’s also his previous effort – the Natalie Portman flop of a Western Jane Got a Gun. This will be a true test of Affleck’s star power as he’s really the sole selling point. Costars include Anna Kendrick, J.K. Simmons, Jon Bernthal, Jeffrey Tambor, and John Lithgow.

Two Octobers back, the star had one of his largest career hits with Gone Girl, which debuted to $37 million. The Accountant will try to lure in adult moviegoers who (unlike in the summer) have had plenty of offerings to choose from, including Sully, The Magnificent Seven, Deepwater Horizon, and The Girl on the Train. While this could reach over $20 million, a debut in the high teens seems like the numbers this Accountant will manage.

The Accountant opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

For my Kevin Hart: What Now? prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/kevin-hart-what-now-box-office-prediction/

For my Max Steel prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/06/max-steel-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 5-7

Three new offerings open up Friday to challenge current champ Kung Fu Panda 3: star studded Coen Brothers comedy Hail, Caesar!, Nicholas Sparks novel adaptation The Choice, and genre mashup Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/hail-caesar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/pride-and-prejudice-and-zombies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/the-choice-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, none of these newbies is likely to keep Panda from remaining on top for a second consecutive weekend. In fact, box office numbers should take a hit this weekend, especially on Sunday when the main competition comes from Peyton Manning and Cam Newton.

Caesar! looks best positioned for the runner-up spot while Choice and Pride could fight it out with holdover The Revenant (and possibly Star Wars) for the rest of the top five. And with that, my predictions for the Super Bowl weekend (I’m going Carolina over Denver 38-24 by the way):

Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

2. Hail, Caesar!

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. The Choice

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

Box Office Results (January 29-31)

As expected, Dreamworks Animated Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the charts with a solid $41.2 million, right in line with my $41.7M estimate. The threequel did post the lowest debut for the series so far.

Second place belonged to The Revenant with $12.7 million in its fourth weekend of wide release. It outpaced my $9.8 million prediction and its total stands at $138M.

Third place was Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $11.1 million, ahead of my $8.6M forecast for a cumultation of $895M.

The Finest Hours got off to a weak start (especially with a reported $80M budget) at $10.2 million for fourth place. My prediction? $10.2 million!

Fifth place was holdover Ride Along 2 at $8.4 million for a $70M total. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because I gave way too much credit to the Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black. I had it opening second with $16 million. It opened tenth with a pathetic $5.9M. Oops. I’ll take solace in my great guesses for Panda and Hours.

Last (and least): the Natalie Portman Western Jane Got a Gun, which bombed terribly with only $835K for a 17th place showing, less than half my apparently generous $1.7 million projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 29-31

The final weekend of January brings four new offerings to the multiplexes: animated threequel Kung Fu Panda 3, Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black, true life rescue drama The Finest Hours, and Western Jane Got a Gun with Natalie Portman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Panda should have no trouble topping the charts with Fifty Shades coming in as a distant runner-up. The Revenant and Star Wars could find themselves in a competition for the three and four spots with The Finest Hours, which I have underperforming (especially considering its reported $80M budget). As for Jane, opening on just approximately 550 screens, my $1.7 million estimate for it should leave it outside the top ten.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $41.7 million

2. Fifty Shades of Black

Predicted Gross: $16 million

3. The Finest Hours

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

Box Office Results (January 22-24)

In a slow weekend where the winter storms in D.C. and NYC likely had a negative impact, Leonardo DiCaprio moved up to #1 with The Revenant. The potential Oscar favorite took in $16 million (under my $19.6M prediction) for a total of $119M.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens was second with $14 million, a bit under my $15.9M estimate and its record setting total now sits at $879M.

Last week’s champ Ride Along 2 suffered a huge drop in weekend #2 with $12.4 million (below my $16.8M projection). The Kevin Hart/Ice Cube sequel stands at $58 million and is unlikely to reach $100M – pretty disappointing considering the original just two years ago took in $134M.

A trio of newcomers all failed to make a splash and populated the 4-6 spots. All three opened a bit under my projections. The critically savaged Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa placed fourth with $11.6 million (I said $14.6M).

Fifth place was British horror pic The Boy with a muted $10.7 million (my projection was $12.1M). Sixth place was YA adventure flick The 5th Wave with just $10.3 million (I said $11.4M). Look for all three to fade quickly.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Jane Got a Gun Box Office Prediction

It boasts an acclaimed director with an Oscar winning actress, but next weekend’s Jane Got a Gun seems poised to misfire upon its debut. Gavin O’Connor, maker of Miracle and Warrior, directs this western headlined by Natalie Portman with Joel Edgerton and Ewan McGregor costarring.

The long delayed pic was originally set to open in the summer of 2014, then delayed to 2015, and is now finally rolling out in the doldrums of January. Marketing for it has been low-key and I feel part of its struggle could be that audiences just aren’t aware of its existence. Added to that, female driven westerns are historically not a commercially viable genre (see Bad Girls, The Quick and the Dead).

Jane Got a Gun, while having a relatively small $25 million budget, could have trouble grossing half that number overall. I don’t even think this reaches $5 million in its opening.