Tag: Jackass

Jackass Forever Box Office Prediction

Johnny Knoxville and his band of merry pranksters are back again in Jackass Forever, opening February 4th. It is the fourth theatrically released Jackass saga and it follows 2013’s successful spinoff Bad Grandpa. Jeff Tremaine is back in the director’s chair along with familiar pain enthusiasts Steve-O, Wee Man, Chris Pontius, Dave England, Danger Ehren, Preston Lacy, and Bam Margera (who was fired from production but remains onscreen). There’s celebrity cameos from Eric Andre, Shaquille O’Neal, Machine Gun Kelly, and Tyler, the Creator.

The boys aren’t boys anymore as Knoxville is 50 and Forever will be a test of the franchise’s durability. Back in 2002, part one (which stemmed from the smash MTV show) made $22 million for its start. The first sequel in 2006 made off with $29 million in its opening while 2010’s Jackass 3D easily hit the series high point with a $50 million debut. By 2013, any doubts about the Jackass bankability were wiped away when Bad Grandpa hit $32 million out of the gate.

Younger viewers, eight years after the last installment, may not be as familiar with the brand. However, I’m hesitant to bet against them. No Jackass tale has premiered with less than $20 million and my hunch is that this won’t either. Low to mid 20s sounds about right.

Jackass Forever opening weekend prediction: $21.8 million

For my Moonfall prediction, click here:

Moonfall Box Office Prediction

The Fade of a Jackass

While most box office forecasters such as myself will rightfully pontificate on the continued failure of Solo: A Star Wars Story (it’s fading badly in its sophomore frame after a disappointing debut), there’s another story this weekend. This one involves the highly dwindling fortunes at multiplexes of Mr. Johnny Knoxville.

The MTV show “Jackass” premiered in 2000 and quickly became a sensation with younger viewers glued to Knoxville’s dangerous and often hilarious stunts. Paramount didn’t wait long before taking the half hour program and expanding it to the silver screen. In 2002, Jackass: The Movie debuted to $22 million and grossed $64 million overall domestically. Four years later, Jackass: Number Two improved upon its predecessor’s performance with $29 million for its start and $72 million total. In 2010, the gravy train kept on rolling as Jackass 3–D made an astonishing $50 million out of the gate and earned $117 million by the end of its franchise best run.

In 2013, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa was a bit of a question mark. It wasn’t an official entry in the series and was a test of Knoxville’s potency as his signature series had reached its conclusion. However, Bad Grandpa answered any questions with a strong $32 million debut and $102 million overall gross.

Since that time half a decade ago, Knoxville has been largely absent from the big screen. This weekend’s Action Point was a hoped for return to box office dominance. After all, it combines the stunt work and R rated comedy that he’s known for.

Last week, my initial projection for Point put it in the low double digits – far from the $20 million plus dollars of his previous works. By Thursday, that prediction had dropped to a measly $6.6 million. And now early numbers from the weekend suggest that Action Point will only make $2 million, putting it in 10th place and below the fifth weekend of Overboard.

What on earth happened? In my original projection, I asked if Knoxville’s audience had outgrown him. The answer seems to be a resounding yes. It also didn’t help that Paramount didn’t even have faith enough in it to screen for critics (its current Rotten Tomatoes score is just 16%). Perhaps its concept wasn’t interesting to even his fans. After all, a demented Grandpa is easier to grasp.

The huge failure here calls to question Knoxville’s future at the box office. Maybe it’s time to get the whole Jackass crew together for a reunion and see what happens… because there’s no doubt the amusement park in Action Point is permanently closed.

Action Point Box Office Prediction

America’s foremost jackass is back in theaters next weekend when Johnny Knoxville headlines Action Point. The comedy casts him as the owner of a low-grade amusement park. Expect many of the patented stunts that the man has become synonymous with. Chris Pontius costars with Tim Kirkby directing.

It’s been nearly five years since Knoxville was featured in a starring vehicle – 2013’s Bad Grandpa. That was a huge hit with a $32 million debut and $102 million overall domestic haul. And of course, the Jackass franchise brought in big grosses for Paramount (this film’s distributor) as well.

That said, it’s been quite a while since Mr. Knoxville’s brand of humor was printing money. One wonders if the audience for it has grown up a bit and moved on. I also have a feeling that Action Point doesn’t quite have the selling point marketability that Grandpa possessed.

Add all that up and I believe this may struggle to even reach double digits out of the gate by not bringing in the teenage crowd it wishes to cater to.

Action Point opening weekend prediction: $6.6 million

For my Adrift prediction, click here:

Adrift Box Office Prediction

For my Upgrade prediction, click here:

Upgrade Box Office Prediction

Box Office Results: November 8-10

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World opened as expected, posting the fourth highest debut of 2013 with $86.1 million. This is right in line with my $85.6M prediction so I’ll give myself a nice pat on the back for this one! Thor benefited from the continued Avengers momentum and the rock solid opening bodes well for next spring’s Captain America sequel.

While I am pleased with my Thor prediction, the same cannot be said for my estimate for About Time, the rom com with Rachel McAdams. I predicted it would earn $12.8 million, but also noted in my post that it could tank. And tank it did with a dismal $5.1 million debut for only 9th place.

As for the rest of the top five, it was Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa second again with $11.3 million (I was right there with $11.2M predicted). The animated Free Birds was in the #3 slot with $11.2 million, just above my $10.4M projection. The all-star comedy Last Vegas was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11M… pat back again). I was, however, off with the performance of Ender’s Game in its sophomore frame. I predicted the sci-fi pic would hold up reasonably well and make $13.6 million. It dropped to #5 with $10.3M. It’s safe to say this one is now a box office disappointment.

And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction post on next weekend’s only newcomer, The Best Man Holiday.

Box Office Predictions: November 1-3

It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.

Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.

Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $32.9 million

2. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $21 million

3. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results: October 25-27

The three-week domination of Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity is over and it is Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa becoming the only other #1 film in the month of October with an impressive debut. Grandpa earned $32 million in its debut, above my $28.3M prediction. This marks the second highest opening in the Jackass franchise and shows that the series hasn’t even come close to losing any steam.

Gravity fell to the #2 spot with $20.3 million in its fourth frame, slightly below my $21.2M prediction. It currently stands at $199 million and the possibility of reaching $300M domestic is still alive (especially when it starts earning Oscar nominations in the beginning of 2014).

In its third weekend, Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks was third with $11.8 million, slightly higher than my $10.9M estimate. Phillips stands at $70M and should cross the century mark later on.

Ridley Scott’s The Counselor could not capitalize on its all-star cast that included Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem. Riding a wave of mostly negative reviews, The Counselor flopped with only $8 million for a fourth place showing, well below my $13.8M prediction. Moviegoers were simply ambivalent about the pic and I have no doubt that the weak reviews certainly didn’t help.

The Carrie remake received zero help from the Halloween time frame and tumbled 63% in its sophomore frame with only $5.9 million – below my $7.6M estimate. This actually put the horror flick in sixth place and allowed the animated Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 to be #5 with $6.1M.

Outside of the top five, the acclaimed 12 Years a Slave was #8, grossing a robust $2.1 million on only 123 screens. The picture, which is looked at as an Oscar front runner, expands to more screens this Friday.

Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have prediction posts up for next weekend’s trio of newbies: Ender’s Game, Last Vegas, and Free Birds.

Box Office Predictions: October 25-27

Unless it earns less than half of what Jackass 3D took in for an opening three years ago, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa with Johnny Knoxville should knock Gravity off its three week perch of being #1. The weekend’s other newbie is Ridley Scott’s The Counselor with an impressive cast and curiously, a so-so marketing campaign and no reviews at press time. You can read my prediction posts on both newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/jackass-presents-bad-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/the-counselor-box-office-prediction/

Gravity lost about 30% of its audience from week two to three and I’d expect roughly the same for this weekend. A low 30s drop seems likely for Captain Phillips in week three. And, finally, Carrie opened to a disappointing third place showing in its debut and could easily fall over 50% in its sophomore frame.

And with that, my prediction for this weekend’s top five:

1. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

2. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million (representing a drop of 29%)

3. The Counselor

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. Carrie

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Box Office Prediction

For over a decade now, the Jackass franchise has been a mightily profitable one for Paramount and MTV Films. Based on the popular MTV series, Jackass: The Movie opened to $22.7 million in the fall of 2002. Four years later, Jackass Number Two debuted to $29 million. Four years following that, Jackass 3D took in an amazing $50.4 million for its opening.

This Friday brings us Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa in which star Johnny Knoxville portrays said Grandpa, one of the more known characters from the show’s history. This could properly be called a spin-off of the franchise and the trailers claim that it’s all real people reacting to Grandpa’s antics. Bad Grandpa appears to be modeled more after the kind of pics that Sasha Baron Cohen makes.

Bad Grandpa looks to be a true test as to just how hot this franchise still is. A lot of the moviegoers that grew up with Jackass are getting older. Will they turn out? I highly doubt this venture can even approach what Jackass 3D made in 2010. Its enormous opening was way beyond what most thought it could do, but it did have the advantage of higher ticket prices due to the 3D technology.

My gut tells me Bad Grandpa is more likely to debut around the numbers of the first two franchise flicks. It could certainly surprise with a gross north of $30 million but I’m not seeing it. What Bad Grandpa should do is end the three-week reign of the juggernaut Gravity. However, the trend of each Jackass pic opening bigger than the last should end here.

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million

For my prediction on Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/the-counselor-box-office-prediction/