Tag: Jack O’Connell

Oscar Predictions: Sinners

Warner Bros appears to have a hit rising on their hands this Easter weekend via Sinners. The 1930s set vampire tale casts Michael B. Jordan as twin brothers returning to New Orleans to face blood sucking nemeses. Hailee Steinfeld, Miles Caton, Jack O’Connell, Wunmi Mosaku, Jayme Lawson, Omar Benson Miller, Li Jun Li, and Delroy Lindo costar.

This is Jordan’s latest collaboration with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler. Many critics are saying this is the filmmaker’s most accomplished work. That’s evidence by its rare 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (after 45 reviews) and 83 on Metacritic.

Sinners is not the type of genre exercise that typically generates awards attention. Yet it might be hard for voters to ignore the praise (and likely incoming box office bounty). For down-the-line attention, Ludwig Göransson’s score is being singled out and he’s already a two-time Academy victor for Black Panther and Oppenheimer. He could certainly be nominated again for his composing. I wouldn’t discount nods in Sound and maybe even Production Design.

So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Sinners Box Office Prediction

Michael B. Jordan reunites with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler on April 18th with Sinners. The vampire tale with an original script from the auteur casts Jordan in dual roles with Hailee Steinfeld, Miles Caton, Jack O’Connell, Wunmi Mosako, Jayme Lawson, Omar Benson Miller, Li Jun Li, and Delroy Lindo providing support.

Reviews are impressive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic. With an Easter release, the forecast is that Sinners takes in $35-40 million for its start. The R rating might slightly limit its potential though that could be negligible. Given the high profile re-teaming of star and filmmaker and buzz that should build considering the critical reaction, I think it might exceed expectations.

Sinners opening weekend prediction: $44.8 million

Back to Black Box Office Prediction

Focus Features hopes audiences don’t say no no no to Back to Black when it arrives stateside on May 17th. Sam Taylor-Johnson, best known for making Fifty Shades of Grey, directs the Amy Winehouse biopic with Marisa Abela as the late crooner. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.

Despite middling reviews (only 38% on RT), Black premiered in the #1 spot in the UK about a month ago. Of course, its earnings should be more impressive across the pond. Stateside audiences might be more ambivalent and the shaky word-of-mouth won’t help.

Rolling out on approximately 2000 screens, this could open similarly to last fall’s Priscilla. It did $5.1 million in its wide release and I’ll forecast that this gets just under that.

Back to Black opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million

For my IF prediction, click here:

IF Box Office Prediction

For my The Strangers: Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

The Strangers: Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Back to Black

Back to Black doesn’t hit domestic venues until May 17th, but the biopic is out this weekend in the U.K. and reviews are available for download. Focused on the life of British crooner Amy Winehouse, Fifty Shades of Grey helmer Sam Taylor-Johnson directs with Marisa Abel as the late singer. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.

Critical reaction is decidedly mixed. Trades like Variety and Hollywood Reporter are mostly positive while plenty of across the pond publications are panning it. The current result is 52% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Like another 2024 musical biopic about a legend gone too soon (Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir in the title part), notices for its headliner are stronger than the picture itself. Abel is being praised and she’s at least a slight threat to contend in Best Actress. Like Ben-Adir, it might be a stretch to make the final cut. Perhaps BAFTA is more doable. Don’t expect Black to factor in anywhere else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

Michael Mann’s first feature in nearly a decade zooms into multiplexes on Christmas Day with Ferrari. Adam Driver plays the automative entrepreneur with a supporting cast including Penélope Cruz, Shailene Woodley, Sarah Gadon, Gabriel Leone, Jack O’Connell, and Patrick Dempsey.

The Neon release (with a budget reportedly approaching $100 million) premiered at the Venice Film Festival early in the fall. Buzz was pretty decent (it’s at 75% on RT), but it hasn’t managed to become a serious awards contender. That kind of chatter could help its numbers. Yet it didn’t materialize.

My suspicion is that Ferrari will fail to make a significant dent in the holiday box office. Competition is fierce and this could get lost in the shuffle. Since it is out on Christmas Day (falling on Monday), this estimate is for that date only.

Ferrari opening day prediction: $2.1 million (Christmas Day estimate only)

For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

For my Migration prediction, click here:

Migration Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Ferrari

It’s been eight long years since Michael Mann has been behind the camera and Ferrari marks his first picture since the 2015 cybercrime flop Blackhat. The Heat maker casts Adam Driver in the 1950s set biopic of Enzo Ferrari and it scored a Venice premiere prior to a Christmas Day theatrical release. Penélope Cruz, Shailene Woodley, Gabriel Leone, Sarah Gadon, Jack O’Connell, and Patrick Dempsey costar.

Early reviews are mostly fresh and it sits at 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. They may not be quite strong enough for it to be a significant awards player. It could sneak into Best Picture depending on competition in the weeks and months ahead. I doubt you’ll see it in my top 10 at my next update on Labor Day. There are openings elsewhere. The Sound (especially), Film Editing, and Cinematography are all possibilities.

I don’t anticipate Driver will be much of a factor in Best Actor. However, Cruz is drawing raves for her work as Enzo’s wife Laura. Neon may have a decision to make whether to campaign for her in lead or supporting (I’m guessing the latter). She could make the cut though competition might be fierce. If she manages a nod, it would mark her fifth after Volver, Vicky Christina Barcelona (for which she won Supporting Actress in 2008), Nine, and Parallel Mothers. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Lady Chatterley’s Lover

In 1928, D.H. Lawrence novel Lady Chatterley’s Lover was banned in the United States and elsewhere due its explicit sexual nature and profanity. Nearly a century later, the latest celluloid version of his work lands in theaters this November before a December Netflix rollout. It played at Telluride over the weekend. This is Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre’s second directorial effort following 2019’s critically appreciated The Mustang. Emma Corrin and Jack O’Connell are the lead lovers with Matthew Duckett and Joely Richardson in the supporting cast.

Early reviews have this at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with particular praise heaped on Corrin/O’Connell’s chemistry (expect to see a lot of them according to the buzz). Corrin is a Golden Globe winner as Princess Di on The Crown and she has a busy autumn as she costars alongside Harry Styles in My Policeman (soon screening in Toronto). I don’t think this is a BP contender, but I’ll be curious to see if Netflix attempts an Actress campaign for their Crown royalty. Perhaps that notion could pick up steam if the streamer feels she’s the best option, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Seberg

Kristen Stewart seems to have found another acclaimed indie role with the premiere of Seberg today at the Venice Film Festival. From director Benedict Andrews (best known for Una), the pic casts Stewart as actress Jean Seberg (best known for 1960’s Breathless), whose career was put in jeopardy by her association with an African-American activist played by Anthony Mackie. Costars include Jack O’Connel, Margaret Qualley, and Vince Vaughn.

Reviews for the film itself are a bit shaky. Yet it’s Stewart once again being singled out for her strong work. The Twilight performer has had a run of applauded roles in titles such as Clouds of Sils Maria and Personal Shopper. The Academy has yet to take notice and I’m skeptical they will here considering competitors in higher profile material. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Unbroken: Path to Redemption Box Office Prediction

This weekend, Harold Cronk (director of God’s Not Dead and its first sequel) has the faith-based war drama God Bless the Broken Road opening in theaters. Next weekend, the busy filmmaker releases Unbroken: Path to Redemption. It is deemed a “spiritual sequel” to 2014’s Unbroken. Pure Flix Entertainment is the distributor and I have a feeling we are about to see one of the largest opening weekend disparities from predecessor to follow-up.

Four years ago, Angelina Jolie made the first entry. It opened on Christmas Day and took in $46 million over the holiday weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $115 million. None of the principles behind that hit are back. Samuel Hunt takes over the lead role that Jack O’Connell played and the supporting cast includes Merritt Patterson, Vanessa Bell Calloway (most known as Eddie Murphy’s arranged wife 30 years ago in Coming to America), Bob Gunton, Gary Cole and evangelist Will Graham (who plays his late grandfather Billy).

I’m not so sure moviegoers are even aware of this sequel’s existence. Redemption is currently slated to premiere on a rather low 1200 screens. I have this weekend’s Harold Cronk movie (Broken Road) estimated at $2.1 million. I’ll bump this one a tad bit more, but not by much.

Unbroken: Path to Redemption opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million

For my The Predator prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/the-predator-box-office-prediction/

For my A Simple Favor prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

For my White Boy Rick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

Tulip Fever Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/25): The reported theater count of only 600 screens has caused my revision to be lowered to $1.9 million.

There’s only new picture opening over the long Labor Day weekend and it’s unlikely to blossom into any sort of hit. Justin Chadwick’s Tulip Fever finally makes it to the big screen with a cast that includes Oscar winner Alicia Vikander, Dane DeHaan, Jack O’Connell, Judi Dench, Christoph Waltz, Zach Galifianakis, Matthew Morrison, and Cara Delevingne.

The reported $25 million production from the Weinstein Company has had a long and delayed journey to the silver screen. Tulip was shot over three years ago and was originally slated to debut in theaters last summer before the studio’s financial woes got in the way. It was then rescheduled for February of this year. Finally, it was supposed to debut this coming weekend before the Weinstein Company chose to release it wide (with little fanfare) just days ago as the sole release over the holiday weekend.

This does not bode well for its chances stateside. Even though there’s little competition, I’d say its best scenario is earning the $6.1 million captured by last year’s Labor Day release The Light Between Oceans (also starring Vikander). However, I’m not convinced it even manages that (a theater count when released will help). For now, I’ll say a debut between $4-$5 million is my diagnosis.

Tulip Fever opening weekend prediction: $1.9 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Hazlo Como Hombre prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/28/hazlo-como-hombre-box-office-prediction/