The Divergent Series: Allegiant Box Office Prediction

Shailene Woodley and company are back next weekend in The Divergent Series: Allegiant, the third entry in the YA adaptations from author Veronica Roth. The dystopian sci fi pic arrives in the same March slot as its predecessors, 2014’s Divergent and last year’s Insurgent. Director Robert Schwentke is back behind the camera and costars include Theo James, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Naomi Watts, Jeff Daniels, Octavia Spencer, and Zoe Kravitz.

Second installment Insurgent saw a slight dip from the first entry. While Divergent debuted to $54 million and eventually grossed $150M domestic, Insurgent opened at $52 million with an overall $130M tally. Reviews for Allegiant haven’t been kind… it sits at 0% currently on Rotten Tomaotes and I look for its returns to continue diminishing. Even the third and fourth Hunger Games pics saw dips from the first two and this should follow suit.

I’ll say this first Allegiant (the second part arrives in March 2017) will be the first of the series to fall below the $50M mark out of the gate with low to mid 40s being more probable.

The Divergent Series: Allegiant opening weekend prediction: $43.7 million

For my Miracles from Heaven prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: April 10-12

Only one newcomer is going against the second weekend of Furious 7 as the romantic drama The Longest Ride debuts, based on the Nicholas Sparks bestseller. You can find my detailed prediction post on it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/04/the-longest-ride-box-office-prediction/

I will readily admit that Ride has the potential to open bigger than my prediction. My estimate comes from the belief it will barely outdo the last Sparks adaptation, The Best of Me, which underwhelmed in its performance last year. Still, it could also serve as shrewd counter programming to Furious 7. As predicted, however, I have it landing in third.

There is no doubt that Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its massive and record setting debut this past weekend (more on that below). It’s sure to suffer a healthy decline in weekend #2, but little else could be expected after opening so big.

I have the animated Home remaining #2, though it could find itself in a close race with Ride. As for the rest of the top five, I have Cinderella remaining in fourth, as it should suffer a smaller decline than Get Hard.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $56.5 million (representing a drop of 61%)

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. The Longest Ride

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

4. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (April 3-5)

The seventh edition of the Fast and Furious franchise raced into the history books with the heftiest April opening in box office history with an astounding $147.1 million, speeding beyond my $117.4M prediction. That is good for the ninth largest premiere of all time. The series has been on an incredible hot streak lately. Paul Walker’s final screen appearance also may have added a curiosity factor for some.

Dropping to second was Home in weekend #2 with $27 million, a bit below my $29.3M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale has done well so far with $95 million in the bank.

The critically panned Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy suffered a big drop in its sophomore frame with $13.1 million, under my $15.4M prediction. It’s earned $57 million and is highly unlikely to reach the century mark.

Cinderella was fourth with $10.1 million, on target with my $9.8M projection. The Disney live-action adaptation stands at $167M. Insurgent was fifth as it also grossed $10.1 million (just under my $10.9M prediction). Its three-week total is at $103M and it will surely gross less than its predecessor Divergent. 

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 3-5

It’s Easter weekend at the box office and Furious 7, the seventh installment of the wildly popular Fast and Furious franchise, looks to set the all-time April opening weekend record and mark the largest debut of 2015 so far. My prediction has it managing both. My detailed prediction post can be read here:

Furious 7 Box Office Prediction

With Furious being the only new player this weekend (any direct competitors smartly got out of the way), that just leaves holdovers. Dreamworks animated Home had a much higher premiere than anyone (especially me) anticipated. It should dip by the low 40s in its sophomore frame.

The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard also experienced a solid opening, but it looks poised for a heftier fall in weekend two. Insurgent and Cinderella should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $117.4 million

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (March 27-29)

As mentioned, the animated Home surpassed everyone’s expectations with a stealthy $52.1 million debut, rocketing beyond my meager $24.6M projection. Clearly, family audiences were ready for something new and decided there was no place like Home this weekend.

Get Hard had a solid opening with $33.8 million, a bit above my $30.3M prediction. On the flip side, it earned a mediocre B Cinemascore grade and was savaged by critics, so it seems destined to fade pretty quickly.

Last week’s champ Insurgent fell to third with $21.5 million in weekend #2, a bit below my $24M estimate. It is currently lagging behind the pace that its predecessor Divergent accomplished and the two week total stands at $85 million.

Cinderella was fourth with $17 million, under my $19.1M projection. The Disney hit’s total is currently at $149 million.

The critically lauded indie horror pic It Follows opened fifth with a commendable $3.8 million on just 1200 screens, outpacing my $2.7M prediction.

In sixth was Kingsman: The Secret Service at $2.9 million, just under my $3.5M projection. Its total is at $119 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 27-29

The last week of March brings two titles to the multiplex that could easily place first and second: the Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard and Dreamworks animated flick Home. You can peruse my detailed projections on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/21/get-hard-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/21/home-box-office-prediction/

Get Hard should rule the weekend unless its quite negative reviews give it a softer opening (so to speak) than expected. Home should manage an OK debut for an animated pic.

As for holdovers, Insurgent opened a little lighter than anticipated and it should lose more than half its audience in weekend two, like predecessor Divergent did. Cinderella should place fourth in weekend #3 while nearly two month old Kingsman: The Secret Service may stay at the five spot.

And with that, my projections for the weekend’s top five:

1. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $30.3 million

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (March 20-22)

As mentioned, YA sequel Insurgent came in a bit lower than expected with $52.2 million, under my generous $62.1M prediction and slightly under what Divergent accomplished a year ago. This is certainly not a huge letdown for the studio, but most prognosticators had this debuting higher than the original.

Cinderella dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $34.9 million, just below my $36.9M projection. The Disney live-action hit has amassed $122 million in ten days.

Liam Neeson’s action dud Run All Night was third in weekend #2 with $5 million, in line with my $5.6M estimate. It’s made just $19 million so far.

Neeson’s Taken director stumbled with The Gunman, Sean Penn’s action thriller which flopped with just $5 million out of the gate, below my $6.8M prediction.

Kingsman: The Secret Service managed to stay in the top five with $4.6 million. I incorrectly didn’t include it in the top five. Its total stands at $114 million.

Finally, faith based drama Do You Believe? bombed with a paltry $3.5 million for sixth place. Many similar themed pictures debuted to bigger than expected results in 2014 and I incorrectly believed this would, estimating a $12.3M opening. Oops.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 20-22

For the second weekend in a row, a big budget blockbuster geared towards the female audience will likely dominate a B action movie with Liam Neeson connections. YA sequel Insurgent comes out a year following its predecessor Divergent and I have it debuting to even bigger numbers. The Gunman comes from the director of Neeson’s Taken and stars Sean Penn. The wild card newbie is faith based drama Do You Believe?, which could carry on the recent tradition of these types of pics premiering with larger than anticipated results. You can find detailed prediction posts on all three newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/insurgent-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/the-gunman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/do-you-believe-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect Insurgent to easily top the charts. Disney’s live action Cinderella retelling should be #2 after its very strong rollout this past weekend (more on that below). I anticipate it’ll drop in the mid 40s range.

I have Do You Believe? posting healthier numbers than The Gunman, which has been the victim of some pretty brutal reviews so far. The underperforming Liam Neeson thriller Run All Night should round out the top five after its muted opening this last weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $62.1 million

2. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $36.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

3. Do You Believe?

Predicted Gross: $12.3 millon

4. The Gunman

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. Run All Night

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results (March 13-15)

Well, call me the belle of the ball this weekend! Disney’s Cinderella got off to a terrific start with $67.8 million. My prediction? $67.8 million! Holla!! Female audiences turned out in droves for the acclaimed feature. Having a short film from the Frozen team airing before it probably didn’t hurt either.

The news was not near as good for Liam Neeson as Run All Night stumbled with just $11 million, a little short of my $12.1 million. Reviews were OK but having this arrive so soon after Taken 3 was probably a misstep.

Kingsman: The Secret Service was third and it’s posted solid holds from week to week. I incorrectly had its outside the top five but it earned $6.2 million to boost its current cume to $107 million.

Focus and Chappie each made $5.7 million for fourth and fifth, right around my respective projections of $5.6 million and $6.1 million. The Will Smith caper has made a middling $43 million while Chappie stands at a weak $23 million. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was sixth with $5.6 million, in line with my $6 million estimate. It’s made $18 million through two weeks.

And that will wrap it up for now…. Until next time!

 

 

Divergent Movie Review

Divergent exists because of The Hunger Games. While it may be based on its own series of popular YA novels (which were probably also “inspired” by the Games books), it’s the success of Jennifer Lawrence and company that made this possible. Imitation isn’t always so bad if you can find a somewhat interesting way to do it. Yet for the most part, despite a solid effort from the actors involved, Divergent often feels dull, way too familiar, and poorly paced.

In a dystopian future (of course), the city of Chicago now looks like District 12 and society is divided into five needlessly complicated factions where at age 16, citizens must choose where they wish to belong. There’s a faction for smart people and brave people and selfless people and so on. As we open, Beatrice (Shailene Woodley) is about to take her test to find out where she belongs, as is her brother Caleb (Ansel Elgort). You take the test to show where to go, but have free will to join another group. You can also be considered divergent, which means you don’t fit into any faction. The powers that be don’t like the free will thinking of that subgroup and kill them. Beatrice turns out to be just that and must hide it from everyone. She joins Dauntless (the brave law enforcement team) to the surprise of her parents (Tony Goldwyn and Ashley Judd), who are involved in the government ruling selfless faction. Brother Caleb joins the smart people group. Katniss volunteers in place of her little sis… oh, wrong movie.

If this all sounds more complicated than it needs to be, you would be correct. Soon enough, though, we’re in known territory with training sequences that take Tris (she shortens Beatrice) on a physical and mental journey. There’s also several shades of Inception in the proceedings, as part of the training involves dream like worlds and reading minds.

One of Tris’s Dauntless superiors is Four (Theo James) and he becomes her love interest who may have some easily predicted secrets of his own. There’s also Woodley’s Spectacular Now boyfriend Miles Teller as a weasel of a faction member. This is in addition to Shailene’s romantic counterpart Elgort as her brother. So while there’s no love triangle, our lead actress’s filmography makes things kinda awkward.

Kate Winslet leads the smart people faction, who have evil designs on taking over the government themselves. This puts Tris in the position of needing to protect her family while furiously protecting her true divergent nature.

The plus side of Divergent is really with Woodley. She’s a fine actress and she provides a better performance than the material. Same goes for James and most of the other personnel. That’s pretty much where the compliments stop. Some of the action is OK, but Divergent is just so routine. The look and feel borrow way too heavily from the aforementioned other franchise. They even cast Hunger Games costar Lenny’s daughter Zoe Kravitz as Tris’s BFF (best faction friend).

There is an admittedly nifty sequence where Tris simulates flying, albeit in a different way than her costar Winslet did in that movie about a boat and an iceberg. Divergent tries too hard to emulate The King of the YA Adapted Films and hits its own metaphorical ‘berg.

** (out of four)

http://youtu.be/336qJITnDi0

Insurgent Box Office Prediction

Opening a year after the hit Divergent, Insurgent is the second picture in a series of wildly popular YA novels penned by Veronica Roth. Stars Shailene Woodley, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Theo James, Kate Winslet and Zoe Kravitz are back in the mix, along with newcomers to the franchise Naomi Watts and Octavia Spencer.

While this series will likely never do Hunger Games level numbers, the original opened to an impressive $54 million last March on its way to a $150 million domestic haul. It doesn’t hurt that Woodley, Teller, and Elgort have kept themselves firmly in the public eye with recent commercial and critical hits such as The Fault in Our Stars and Whiplash.

The big question is whether or not Insurgent manages to open larger than its predecessor. My gut feeling is that it will, even though competition among female fans will be considerable with Cinderella’s second weekend. I believe this will manage to break the $60 million mark out of the gate.

Insurgent opening weekend prediction: $62.1 million

For my prediction on The Gunman, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/the-gunman-box-office-prediction/

For my Do You Believe? prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/do-you-believe-box-office-prediction/