The Pure Flix drama Unplanned hits approximately 1000 theaters this Friday. Based on a true story, the film is focused on Planned Parenthood employee Abby Johnson, who becomes a pro-life advocate. Ashley Bratcher plays the lead role with God’sNotDead writers Chuck Konzelman and Cary Solomon directing.
This studio that specializes in faith-based efforts has seen its material underperform lately. Titles like Unbroken: PathtoRedemption, LittleWomen, and Indivisible have all fallen under projections in the past couple of years. Unplanned has received some publicity lately due to its R rating (a first for Pure Flix), with some outlets believing that designation is excessive.
Even with that extra attention, I’ll estimate this debuts in the $2-$3 million range.
Unplanned opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million
Blogger’s Note (10/30/18): My estimate for BohemianRhapsody has increased from $31.8M to $41.8M
A flurry of box office activity greets November as three new releases are unveiled. We have the Queen musical extravaganza Bohemian Rhapsody, Disney’s fantasy adventure The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, and Tyler Perry directed Tiffany Haddish comedy Nobody’s Fool. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Rhapsody appears poised to, ahem, be the champion. How much it earns is very much in question. Forecasts have it anywhere between $25-$35 million. Reviews have been mixed, but the band’s fan base and rocking trailers have the potential to make the point moot. The film has the potential to over perform ($40 million is in the cards), but I’m estimating it ends up falling in the middle of current projections. **Note updated above.
As for The Nutcracker, it’s risky to underestimate the marketing power of the Mouse Factory. That said, buzz for this seems curiously muted. While it should have no problem nabbing the runner-up spot, I believe it will do so with less than $20 million.
Tiffany Haddish has had a pair of hits with Girls Trip last summer and Night School just a month ago. The latter had the benefit of featuring Kevin Hart. My prediction for Fool gives it about half of what School made out of the gate. That could put it in a battle for third place with the third weekend of current champ Halloween, with A Star Is Born rounding out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 take on as November comes in:
1. Bohemian Rhapsody
Predicted Gross: $41.8 million
2. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
3. Nobody’s Fool
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
5. A Star Is Born
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
Box Office Results (October 26-28)
As expected, Halloween easily topped the charts for the second weekend in a row with $31.4 million, a bit below my $35.4 million estimate. The latest pairing of Michael Myers and Laurie Strode has taken in $126 million. That already gives it the all-time franchise earner by far (the previous record was 2007’s remake at $58 million).
For the fourth weekend in a row, A Star Is Born held the #2 spot with $14 million, a tad higher than my take of $13.3 million. It’s up to $148 million with $200 million in its sights.
Venom was third with $10.6 million (I was right there at $10.5 million) for an overall tally of $187 million.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.9 million) for $38 million thus far.
None of the newcomers performed well. Hunter Killer managed just a fifth place showing with $6.6 million, not matching my $8.2 million prediction.
Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid90s expanded nationally with middling results in 10th with $2.9 million (I said $3.6 million).
In 12th place was Johnny English Strikes Back with $1.6 million compared to my $1.3 million projection. Faith-based drama Indivisible was 13th with $1.5 million (I said $1 million).
Blogger’s Note (10/25/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my Hunter Killer estimate from $10.2 million to $8.2 million
Jamie Lee Curtis and her long running nemesis Michael Myers should have no trouble topping the box office charts once again as a trio of newcomers enter the marketplace. They are the Gerard Butler action thriller Hunter Killer, Pure Flix drama Indivisible, and Rowan Atkinson comedy sequel Johnny English Strikes Again. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:
Let’s deal with the low hanging fruit first. I don’t expect Indivisible or English to come anywhere near the top 5 with respective estimates of $1 million and $1.3 million.
We also have Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid90s expanding into wide release after a four screen engagement this past weekend. A theater count will be key here, but if it gets 1000 screens I’ll say it hits around $3.6 million (this could rise or fall depending on volume).
Hunter Killer is a trickier proposition. It doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz, but recent Butler pics such as Geostorm and Den of Thieves have both managed to go slightly above projections. It’s tempting to say Killer won’t do double digits, but I’m putting it just over that for what would be a fourth place showing (though it could go higher).
Speaking of killers, Michael Myers and his Halloween sequel slashed its way to the second largest October opening of all time (behind Venom) and second highest horror premiere ever (behind It). I’ll say it dips around 53% for the weekend.
A Star Is Born and Venom seem poised to keep their 2-3 positions with Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween rounding out the top five.
And with that, the top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
Predicted Gross: $35.4 million
2. A Star Is Born
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Hunter Killer
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
5. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (October 19-21)
As mentioned, Halloween achieved near record-setting status this weekend with a fantastic $76.2 million start, right in line with my $75.4 million prediction. It easily soared above the previous franchise record with $50 million to spare. That mark was held by Rob Zombie’s 2007 remake at $26 million.
A Star Is Born kept the runner-up spot for the third weekend with $19 million (I said $19.2 million) to bring its earnings to $126 million.
After two weeks on top, Venom dipped to third place with $18 million (I was a tad lower at $16.9 million) for a three-week tally of $171 million.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween was fourth with $9.7 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $28 million.
First Man continued its disappointing returns in fifth with $8.3 million – under my $10 million take. In two weeks, it’s earned an unimpressive $29 million.
Critically acclaimed The Hate U Give expanded wide with a solid $7.6 million for sixth place, getting past my $6.7 million estimate.
Blogger’s Note (10/22/18): Hours after publication of this post, a theater count of approximately 830 screens was revealed. That means a revision down from $1.7 million to just $1 million
The latest Pure Flix drama Indivisible hits theaters this weekend and the faith-based pic is likely to follow in the footsteps of the studio’s most recent output. It’s the true story of an Army chaplain stationed in Iraq. David G. Evans directs with a cast including Justin Bruening, Sarah Drew, Jason Winston George, Madeline Carroll, and Michael O’Neill. I’m not sure how much of a coincidence it is, but many of the actors here have appeared on the long-running ABC hit “Grey’s Anatomy”.
We don’t have a theater count yet on Indivisible and that will be a determining factor in my prediction. However, looking at recent Pure Flix material, 1300-1600 screens is probable. That would fall in line with four of their releases in the past year: Same Kind of Different as Me, Samson, God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness, and last month’s Unbroken: Path to Redemption. Between those four pictures, their opening weekend grosses ranged between a consistent $1.9-$2.6 million. If this were to debut with less screens that, my forecast will be revised down.
I see no major reason to alter the formula much here. I’ll go on the lower end of that small spectrum since it’s not a sequel like God’s Not Dead and Unbroken.
Indivisible opening weekend prediction: $1 million