The National Board of Review bestowed its annual honors today for the pictures of 2018 and they went green. That means it was a very good day for Peter Farrelly’s race relations drama Green Book and it might have come at just the right moment. It won Best Film at a time when its box office performance has been lackluster and lead Viggo Mortensen got into hot water for remarks at a recent event. The last three winners of the NBR top prize (Mad Max: Fury Road, Manchester by the Sea, The Post) all received Picture nominations at the Oscars (it’s worth pointing out that none of them won).
I don’t expect Green Book to emerge victorious at the Academy Awards, but this does help its case for a nomination. The NBR is also unique in that it names 10 other movies as their favorites beyond the big recipient. The list this year is as follows:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Over the past decade or so, usually 5-7 of those 11 honorees go on to Oscar recognition. In addition to Green Book, I’m currently assuming Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, and A Star Is Born are in. That’s five. I’m also growing more confident that Mary Poppins Returns could manage to reach the final nine or ten nominees. The rest remain question marks. Eighth Grade and First Reformed seem to be gaining steam, but I’m uncertain they’ll get all the way to the top. The three that I believe are least likely are Can You Ever Forgive Me?, A Quiet Place, and Buster Scruggs.
Bradley Cooper took Directing honors for A Star Is Born and he’s already a safe bet for Academy inclusion. His costars Lady Gaga and Sam Elliot took the Actress and Supporting Actor races. All in all, it was a fine day for A Star Is Born. Elliot’s win is a boost for him and it’s a little surprising they didn’t name Green Book costar Mahershala Ali, considering the film’s other successes today.
Speaking of Green Book, the aforementioned Mr. Mortensen took Best Actor. He’s looking good for an Oscar nod, but I still put him behind Cooper and Christian Bale (Vice) when it comes to winning possibilities.
Regina King’s work in If Beale Street Could Talk earned her Supporting Actress and she’s a lock for Oscar inclusion.
Paul Schrader’s original screenplay for First Reformed was honored for the second day in a row after its Gotham Award. For the past couple of weeks, I’ve had Reformed just on the outside of my nominated predictions in that category. I foresee that changing on Thursday when I update them… though I’m uncertain which entry falls out between The Favourite, Roma, Vice, and Eighth Grade. Barry Jenkins took Adapted Screenplay for Beale Street and he’s got a real shot at the gold statue.
The notable snubs on the list are primarily BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, First Man and Vice. However, it’s worth noting again that plenty of movies have missed the NBR cut and managed Oscar glory.
As for some down the line honorees – Incredibles 2 won Best Animated Film, RBG took Best Documentary, and Cold War got Best Foreign Language Film. All seem bound for the final five a couple of months from now.
And there’s your NBR report, folks! The New York Film Critics are on deck next and I’ll have a recap of that one Thursday!
My weekly Oscar predictions are here and there’s been significant developments in the past seven days!
Vice, MaryPoppinsReturns, and MaryQueenofScots have all held industry screenings. All experienced positive word of mouth. Vice jumps four spots in Best Picture and Poppins is just barely on the outside of my predicted nominees. It could continue to climb. Scots is more of a question mark, but it could gather momentum.
Barry Jenkins (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk) enters my Best Director five, replacing Peter Farrelly (GreenBook). The latter slips in several rankings this week due to its lackluster box office performance.
For the first time, Ethan Hawke’s work in FirstReformed is a predicted nominee. He replaces Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate).
Emily Blunt is in for Poppins, vaulting over Yalitza Aparicio (Roma).
In Supporting Actor, it’s Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) back in over Sam Rockwell (Vice).
For Supporting Actress, Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite) returns over Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
5. Vice (PR: 9)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
7. GreenBook (PR: 3)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Widows (PR: 10)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Mule (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Boy Erased
Crazy Rich Asians
A Quiet Place
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)
8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
7. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
10. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Here’s some developments from last week to this one:
On the Basis of Sex screened at the AFI Fest and I believe its Oscar hopes in all categories took a significant dip. We’ll see if it can rebound, but it’s dropped out of contention in Picture, Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer), and Original Screenplay with Felicity Jones falling to #10 in Actress.
Speaking of AFI Fest, Mary Queen of Scots debuts this evening at the fest. By this time next week, I’ll have a much better idea as to its prospects.
Both Supporting categories experienced a change. I’ve moved Sam Rockwell (Vice) back in the top 5 with Adam Driver out. I’ve also put Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) in the predicted nominees with Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) out.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. First Man (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 10)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
12. Boy Erased (PR: 15)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)
14. The Mule (PR: 13)
15. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
On the Basis of Sex
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
9. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 9)
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Widows (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 6)
7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 3)
2. Green Book (PR: 1)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Reformed (PR: 7)
7. Private Life (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
On the Basis of Sex
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Girl (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
8. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
9. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Border (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dogman
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
4. Mirai (PR: 4)
5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 6)
8. Early Man (PR: 5)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Grinch
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)
2. Free Solo (PR: 1)
3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amazing Grace (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
9. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Quincy (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Science Fair
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 8)
7. Widows (PR: 6)
8. The Favourite (PR: 5)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
8. Widows (PR: 6)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cold War (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
7. Roma (PR: 9)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colette (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
A Star Is Born
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 2)
2. The Favourite (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)
5. Vice (PR: 4)
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
10. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Suspiria
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
7. Roma (PR: 6)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 4)
5. Annihilation (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 5)
7. Green Book (PR: 10)
8. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 9)
9. Roma (PR: 7)
10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Suspiria
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)
5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)
8. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
9. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 8)
And that provides the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born
9 Nominations
First Man, The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
5 Nominations
Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Mary Queen of Scots
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, RBG
1 Nomination
Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Widows, The Wife, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Minding the Gap.
Ralph Breaks the Internet is expected to easily hit the #1 spot at the box office over the Thanksgiving holiday. The film is Disney’s highly anticipated sequel to 2012’s Wreck-It-Ralph and reviews are out today.
The verdict? Much like its predecessor, critical notice is strong as it currently stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some early notices say it doesn’t quite match the original, but it’s all pretty much a positive vibe.
As to where that puts Internet in the Oscar race for Best Animated Feature, I’d say it’s almost certainly in. Wreck-It-Ralph also nabbed a nomination in that category, but lost to Disney/Pixar’s Brave. That would appear to be what will happen again as Ralph should get a nod and lose to the heroes of Pixar’s Incredibles 2.
Bottom line: Ralph officially broke into awards chatter today, but studio competition should keep it from achieving gold. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Disney is no stranger to debuting high-profile titles over the long Turkey Day weekend and they’re back at it again with RalphBreakstheInternet. It’s the sequel to 2012’s Wreck–It–Ralph and brings back the vocal stylings of John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, Jack McBrayer, Jane Lynch, and Ed O’Neill. New actors behind the mic include Gal Gadot, Taraji P. Henson, and Alfred Molina. Rich Moore and Phil Johnston direct.
While we’re not in Incredibles2 territory as far as expectations, Ralph is forecasted to easily break into the top spot for the Thanksgiving holiday. The original made $49 million for its start six years ago and ended up with $189 million.
Animated sequels can and have exceeded debut earnings of their predecessors. There’s been several years for kids to watch the original repeatedly and Internet could also appeal to younger adults. As mentioned, the Mouse Factory likes this frame for their drawn efforts. On the high-end, there’s Frozen, which made $93 million over the full Wednesday to Sunday frame ($67 million traditional weekend). On the low-end is TheGoodDinosaur with a $55 million five-day ($39 million three-day). Two years ago, Moana took in $82 million ($56 million Friday to Sunday). Last year it was Coco with $72 million ($50 million three-day).
So where does this fit in? I like it falling in between Disney’s output from the last two years. That means I’m estimating it slightly outshines Wreck–It for the traditional weekend with upper 70s for the whole holiday.
RalphBreakstheInternet opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $79.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Over the weekend, Illumination Entertainment’s TheGrinch dominated the box office with a mid 60s debut. The animated pic continues a string of pleasing grosses for the studio that houses the lucrative DespicableMe/Minions franchise.
Could that mean TheGrinch finds its way into the mix for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars? It’s doubtful. For starters, reviews have been mixed as it currently sits at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. The race is also filling up with Incredibles2 and IsleofDogs with probable reserved spots and the upcoming RalphBreakstheInternet looking to nab one. I feel that other wide release pics like EarlyMan and Smallfoot could also be potential contenders.
Most importantly, while Illumination produces blockbusters, that success hasn’t translated into nominations. Only DespicableMe2 got one, with better reviewed titles like TheSecretLifeofPets and other Despicable efforts left out.
Bottom line: the studio’s Grinch reward will come from its earnings and not awards ceremonies. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions have arrived once again! Some important developments from last week to this one:
Green Book rises and First Man falls. While I still have the latter receiving a Picture nomination, I’ve put in Peter Farrelly (Green Book) over Man maker Damien Chazelle in Director. In Best Actor, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) gets the nod over Ryan Gosling’s work. In Adapted Screenplay, it’s Widows in and First Man out. With Green Book, it now rises to the #1 spot in Original Screenplay over Roma.
The AFI Fest premieres tonight with the world debut of On the Basis of Sex. We’ll have a lot more info on its Oscar viability in just hours. The same festival will bring us the first screening and buzz for Mary Queen of Scots next week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
7. First Man (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 12)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)
13. The Mule (PR: 13)
14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 11)
15. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
9. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robert Forster, What They Had
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 6)
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Widows (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
8. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Leave No Trace
Best Original Screenplay
1. Green Book (PR: 3)
2. Roma (PR: 1)
3. The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
7. First Reformed (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Girl (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 9)
8. Border (PR: 10)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)
10. Dogman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guility
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
4. Mirai (PR: 4)
5. Early Man (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 5)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 10)
8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Night is Short, Walk on Girl
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Science Fair (PR: 5)
9. Quincy (PR: 10)
10. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Price of Everything
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
4. The Favourite (PR: 6)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 9)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Cold War (PR: 5)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Roma (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Colette (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)
10. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. The Favourite (PR: 3)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Vice (PR: 5)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
7. Colette (PR: 9)
8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
10. Suspiria (PR: 8)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Roma (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 5)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 7)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Annihilation (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
5. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Roma (PR: 4)
8. Suspiria (PR: 9)
9. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)
10. Green Book (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
Incredibles 2
Colette
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 10)
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)
10. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
And that breaks down the following number of nominations for each film:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born
11 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book
4 Nominations
Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows
1 Nomination
At Eternity’s Gate, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Annihilation, The Hate U Give, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Early Man, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, RBG, Minding the Gap
My first Oscar predictions in the month of November come with reductions and expansions. I am slimming the list of 25 Best Picture possibilities to 15 and the other major categories from 15 to 10. As you can see, I am also including all of the other feature-length races for the first time from Documentary to Animated Feature to Foreign Language Feature and the techs.
So what are the developments worth discussing? Well…
In these initial projections for all races, A Star Is Born and First Man tie for most nominations with 12 apiece. Truth be told, I’m skeptical that First Man will get there. Its poor box office performance could hinder its possibilities in some races. While I’m relatively confident it will score multiples nods in the technical categories, both director Damien Chazelle and star Ryan Gosling are questionable, even though I currently have them both getting honored.
In Best Picture, BlacKkKlansman rises from 6th to 4th in the list of predicted nominees. It’s a good week in general for the Spike Lee pic as I’m including Adam Driver for the first time in the list of predicted Supporting Actor nominees, replacing Sam Rockwell in Vice.
We got a surprise announcement this week as Kenneth Branagh’s All Is True will open in late December for a qualifying run. The director stars as William Shakespeare in the late stages of his life with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen. I will likely wait for some buzz before possibly listing it as a predicted nominee. In addition to Picture, Director, acting slots, and screenplay – it has the potential in down the line races such as Costume Design and Production Design. It will certainly be one to keep an eye on.
For Foreign Language Feature, Roma is tops in my first predictions while it maintains its #2 spot in Best Picture. Pixar finds itself in familiar territory with Incredibles 2 leading Animated Feature. In what should be a competitive Documentary Feature race, Free Solo starts out at #1 with Three Identical Strangers close behind.
And with that, here’s what November brings as far as Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
12. Widows (PR: 10)
13. The Mule (PR: 12)
14. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place
Eighth Grade
Boy Erased
Leave No Trace
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Poppins Returns
The Hate U Give
Cold War
Ben Is Back
Hereditary
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Widows
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 14)
10. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Rachel McAdams, Disobedience
Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Dianne Wiest, The Mule
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 11)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Boy Erased
Disobedience
The Sisters Brothers
The Wife
Best Original Screenplay
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
7. First Reformed (PR: 6)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)
10. The Mule (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Private Life
Hereditary
Stan and Ollie
Sorry to Bother You
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Girl
5. Capernaum
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning
7. Birds of Passage
8. The Guilty
9. Never Look Away
10. Border
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet
4. Mirai
5. Ruben Brandt, Collector
Other Possibilities:
6. Lu Over the Wall
7. Early Man
8. Night is Short, Walk on Girl
9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
10. Smallfoot
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
4. RBG
5. Science Fair
Other Possibilities:
6. Minding the Gap
7. Dark Money
8. Crime + Punishment
9. The Price of Everything
10. Quincy
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. The Favourite
5. Vice
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Black Panther
9. BlacKkKlansman
10. July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma
2. First Man
3. A Star Is Born
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Cold War
Other Possibilities:
6. The Favourite
7. Black Panther
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
9. Widows
10. Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. First Man
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born
7. Roma
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
9. Colette
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Colette
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Crazy Rich Asians
7. A Star Is Born
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. The Favourite
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan and Ollie
5. Vice
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Star Is Born
8. Suspiria
9. Colette
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. A Star Is Born
5. Incredibles 2
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
7. Avengers: Infinity War
8. Roma
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Roma
8. Incredibles 2
9. Avengers: Infinity War
10. Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. Annihilation
Other Possibilities
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Quiet Place
8. A Wrinkle in Time
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Roma
5. Green Book
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots
7. Incredibles 2
8. Colette
9. Suspiria
10. The Sisters Brothers
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
4. “The Place Where Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give
Other Possibilities:
6. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born
8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG
10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for each feature:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born, First Man
10 Nominations
The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Cold War, Incredibles 2
1 Nomination
Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Colette, Eighth Grade, Ready Player One, The Hate U Give, The Wife, Capernaum, Free Solo, Girl, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ruben Brandt, Collector, Science Fair. Shoplifters, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
My extremely early Oscar predictions for 2018 bring us to something brand new and quite controversial. Yes, I’m talking the category that we will see for the first time at next year’s ceremony: Best Popular Film.
The announcement last month by the Academy of this new race was met with a whole lotta criticism. And even if you weren’t one of the voices on the negative side, the category has caused understandable confusion.
We still don’t know the criteria for a nomination here. Over $100 million at the box office? How wide was its release?
The Academy did clear up one big question. Movies nominated in this category can also be featured in the Best Picture race. It’s a legitimate question as to whether or not that will happen. For instance, AStarIsBorn could be primed for the big race. Yet it seems likely to cross the century mark. How about Incredibles2? It’s a shoo-in for a nod in Best Animated Feature, so will voters acknowledge it in both categories? For now, I’m saying no. Many prognosticators believe this could be the Academy’s way of honoring BlackPanther. We shall see.
Bottom line… plenty of uncertainty here, but here’s my first take on the first year of Best Popular Film.
Best Director and then Picture are up next! If you missed my estimates for the four acting races, you can find them here:
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences dropped a rather big bombshell today with some announced changes to their Oscar telecast. First off, they’re claiming the show will now be just three hours (I’ll believe it when I see it). Additionally, some categories (I imagine numerous tech ones) will be announced live during commercial breaks and then edited into the show later. This probably won’t make the individuals in those races happy, but it should speed up the program.
However, the most noticeable and interesting change is the addition of a new category (something the Academy rarely does). The addition is described as “Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film”. No other details have been provided, but this would appear to be an attempt by the Academy to include blockbusters that haven’t made the cut in Best Picture.
So what does that mean? What is the criteria? That was not announced today and it will be fascinating to see what such criteria is. Could it be a particular gross… say over $100 million domestically? Could it be the number of the theaters a movie is released in? Time will tell and hopefully these details will be revealed shortly. It isn’t even immediately clear that these changes will all be in effect for the 2019 telecast, but I imagine they will be.
Even though nothing is totally clear at press time, that won’t stop me from speculating and asking, “What if this category had been in effect in previous years?”
Before that, let’s start with this year. If there is a Best Popular Film category in 2018, that greatly increases the chances of Marvel’s Black Panther and horror smash A Quiet Place getting nods. There’s also Mission: Impossible – Fallout (the most acclaimed entry in the franchise) or perhaps Avengers: Infinity War. Pixar will certainly see Incredibles 2 nominated in Best Animated Feature, but it could make a play here as well. And we still have fall releases like Mary Poppins Returns and A Star Is Born out there.
There will be plenty of speculation as to whether Black Panther will be the first superhero pic to nab a Best Picture nomination. There is little doubt it would be recognized in this new category.
It’s been discussed on this blog previously about the 2008 Oscars which omitted The Dark Knight in the Best Picture derby. That development was likely responsible for the Academy changing its rule of five nominated films to anywhere between five and ten. Yet it would appear the Academy still isn’t satisfied with major hits being included.
Let’s consider last year. Of the nine Best Picture nominees, only two grossed over $100 million – Get Out and Dunkirk. If the Popular Film category had existed a year ago, I imagine both features would have achieved double nominations. Assuming this new category contains five nominees (something not revealed yet), what would the other three have been? There’s plenty of blockbusters to choose from: Beauty and the Beast, Wonder Woman, It, Logan, Coco, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder, and Baby Driver.
Here’s my best guess of what a Best Popular Film slate would have looked like in 2017:
Dunkirk, Get Out, Logan, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman
And I’m thinking Get Out would have won.
In 2016, you might have seen Deadpool and The Jungle Book as Popular picks.
In 2015, there could have been room for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Straight Outta Compton.
2014? Perhaps Guardians of the Galaxy and Gone Girl.
Heck, let’s go way back. Would Jurassic Park have won Best Popular Film in 1993? I don’t think so. I bet it would have gone to The Fugitive, which nabbed an actual Best Picture nomination.
Of course, there would have been years where Best Picture and Best Popular Film match. 1994 with Forrest Gump. 1997’s Titanic. 2000’s Gladiator. Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003.
Back to today. I would say this new category seems tailor-made for Black Panther. Does that mean its chances for a Best Picture nod are now diminished because voters figure it runs away with this? Perhaps. And that’s why I’m not too wild about this change at the moment. This has the potential to look like a desperate play by the Academy. At the least, it’s an acknowledgment that audience favorites and Academy favorites don’t often match.
That said, let’s see what the criteria is and I’ll judge from there. It’s a new era at the Oscars… one where Bumblebee stands a shot (however remote) at Oscar glory!
