Sony is hoping horror fans turn out for ThePossessionofHannahGrace next weekend, but that could be a tall order. The scare fest stars Shay Mitchell, Kirby Johnson, Stana Katic, Grey Damon, and Nick Thune. Diederik Van Rooijen directs.
The morgue set pic could be DOA with genre fans. The post Thanksgiving weekend is traditionally not a strong one for newcomers as audiences continue to feast on leftovers. Opening on around 1900 screens, this could struggle to even hit mid single digits. One comp that seems fair is Incarnate from two years ago, which opened the same weekend to $2.5 million.
I’ll say Grace manages to top that by a little bit and that should mean a debut outside the top five.
ThePossessionofHannahGrace opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
Blumhouse Productions is out with its latest low-budget flick that hopes to generate high dollar figures when Upgrade debuts next weekend. The sci-fi horror revenge pic comes from director Leigh Whannell, best known for his involvement in the Insidious franchise (including directing its third chapter). Logan Marshall-Green, Betty Gabriel (best known as the creepy housekeeper in Get Out), and Harrison Gilbertson are among the cast. Early reviews have been decent as it currently stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Upgrade is slated to open on a rather low 1400 screens and that will limit its potential. I would not anticipate this coming anywhere near the massive successes that Jason Blum and his studio have achieved with titles like the aforementioned Get Out, Split, or Happy Death Day. Instead it appears destined to premiere similar to BH Tilt’s lesser offerings like The Belko Experiment, The Green Inferno, or Incarnate – none of which managed to clear $5 million for their starts.
In the weekend before Rogue One and then a slew of Christmas releases populate the multiplexes, we have two pics opening in wide release: holiday comedy Office Christmas Party and Jessica Chastain political drama Miss Sloane. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Actually, there’s a third film scheduled to come out in wide (or semi-wide) release and that’s Tom Ford’s thriller Nocturnal Animals with Amy Adams and Jake Gyllenhaal. The problem is that I don’t have a screen count on it at press time, so predicting its number is a bit of guesswork. I’ll say it manages $2.3M. However, when its count is released, I reserve to right to change that estimate.
Back to the newbies with theater counts. Office Christmas Party may benefit from being the only comedy out there (Bad Santa 2 has come and gone) and with its recognizable cast, I’ve got it pegged to manage a #2 opening, just behind Moana‘s third weekend.
Fantastic Beasts should slip to third with holdovers Arrival and Allied filling out the top five, with Sloane very close behind.
Here’s how I have the top 6 projected for this weekend:
1. Moana
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
2. Office Christmas Party
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Allied
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. Miss Sloane
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (December 2-4)
The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend is typically a pretty sleepy one at the box office and 2016 was no different.
Disney’s Moana easily held the top spot for the second weekend in a row grossing $28.2 million (on pace with my $28.8M projection). The animated hit has amassed $119M thus far.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held the #2 position with $18.1 million, a bit under my $20.9M prediction for an overall gross of $183M.
Other holdovers held up quite well over the weekend. Arrival was third with $7.2 million (above my $5.9M estimate) for a $73M total. Allied was fourth with $7 million (I said $5.9M for it as well). It’s grossed $28M. Doctor Strange was fifth with $6.6 million (I said $6.1M). The Marvel property stands at $215M.
Last and least, horror pic Incarnate landed in ninth with a blah $2.5 million, though it did manage to just outpace my $1.7M forecast.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Check out the blog tomorrow when my Rogue One: A Star Wars Story box office prediction is posted. Until then…
The first weekend of December will be filled by Thanksgiving leftovers as only one newbie debuts this weekend: supernatural horror pic Incarnate starring Aaron Eckhart. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As you can see, I’m expecting Incarnate to bomb with just a $1.7 million opening, meaning it shouldn’t come close to the top 5.
When it comes to holdovers, Disney’s Moana should easily top the charts in its second weekend. I’m estimating it will lose close to half its opening frame audience. Fantastic Beasts should hold the runner-up spot.
The real drama could be for #3 as I expect Doctor Strange, Allied, and Arrival to each make about the same amount. The post Thanksgiving weekend usually sees pretty large declines for returning product and I expect this year to be no different.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Moana
Predicted Gross: $28.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)
4. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. Allied
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (November 25-27)
As anticipated, Disney ruled the Turkey Day holiday frame as their acclaimed animated title Moana was #1. It grossed $56.6 million over Friday to Sunday (right on target with my $56.4M estimate) and $82 million since its Wednesday roll-out (topping my $77.2M projection). Look for the ‘toon to play well over the next month.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them displayed a far better hold than I gave it credit for at second with $45 million as opposed to my $34.9M prediction. The J.K. Rowling would-be franchise has taken in $156M thus far.
Marvel’s Doctor Strange was third with $13.7 million, in line with my $14M prediction to bring its haul to $205M.
The Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard World War II romantic thriller Allied suffered a ho-hum 4th place showing. It made $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $17.7 million since its Wednesday bow, coming in under my respective forecasts of $14.2M and $21.1M.
Arrival displayed a strong hold in its third frame at #5 with $11.4 million (above my $8.6M prediction) for a $62M total.
Trolls came in sixth with $10.6 million (I went a little higher at $12.7M) for $135M overall.
Audiences greeted Bad Santa 2 with little enthusiasm as it debuted in seventh place to just $6.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $9.1 million since Wednesday, a bit below my guesstimates of $8.1M and $10.8M.
Almost Christmas was eighth with $5.6 million (I said $4.7M) for a $34M haul.
Mel Gibson’s directorial comeback Hacksaw Ridge was ninth with $5.5 million (I said $5.1M) to bring its pleasing earnings to $52M.
I incorrectly had The Edge of Seventeen outside of the top ten in its second weekend. It earned $2.9 million to bring its small gross just over $10M.
That’s because I gave too much credit to Warren Beatty’s return to the big screen in Rules Don’t Apply. The pic debuted with an extremely disappointing $1.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $2.1 million since Wednesday. That’s good for just 12th place and well shy of my $4.8M and $6.3M prognoses.
The first weekend of December is typically a very light frame for new product and 2016 is no different as horror flick Incarnate is the only new offering. From Blumhouse Tilt (a studio that makes their pics cheap and fast), the exorcism tale stars Aaron Eckhart. It’s been a busy year for the lead actor, as he’s already appeared in supporting roles this fall with hit Sully and flop BleedforThis. Brad Peyton (who made last summer’s SanAndreas) is behind the camera and costars include Carice van Houtem and Catalina Sandino Moreno.
Despite a release in European territories last summer, Incarnate has sat on the shelf waiting for U.S. distribution. That’s usually not a sign of confidence from the studio and neither is its dumping ground release date. This should follow the pattern of many other first weekend of December premieres and post extremely low numbers.
Incarnate opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million
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