As they frequently do over the Thanksgiving holiday, Disney should reign supreme with an animated effort. In 2025, they’ll do it via Zootopia 2 which follows up the 2016 original. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing. Returning voice work comes from Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Shakira, Idris Elba, Alan Tudyk, Bonnie Hunt, and Jenny Slate. Newcomers to the franchise include Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, and Danny Trejo.
At the 89th Academy Awards, Zootopia won Best Animated Feature against fellow studio competitor Moana and the acclaimed Kubo and the Two Strings. It opened early in the calendar (March) and maintained frontrunner status throughout the long awards season. Reviews were strong with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic.
The sequel is also generating solid critical reaction with 93% on RT and Metacritic at 73. Those numbers are sturdy enough that I’m confident Zootopia 2 has reserved a spot in the Animated Feature quintet. It also has a shot to be victorious like its predecessor. However, I’ve had it ranked in second position behind the cultural juggernaut that is Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters. Overcoming that streaming phenomenon could be a tall order. It might be achievable but leaving it in second feels right unless precursors alter the narrative. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney has owned the Thanksgiving holiday in recent years and that looks to continue when Zootopia 2 arrives November 26th. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing the sequel to the 2016 blockbuster that took home Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. Returning voices include Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, and Shakira. New faces behind the mics are Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, Roman Reigns, and CM Punk.
Last year, the Mouse House smashed the Thanksgiving box office record with Moana 2. That follow-up took in $139 million from Friday to Sunday with $225 million when counting Wednesday and Turkey Day. The previous highest three-day opening was the original Moana (also from 2016) at $56 million.
Zootopia 2 should fall between the Moana‘s in the record books. In a best case scenario, it could threaten part 2. In March 2016, the original exceeded expectations with a $75 million start on its way to $341 million overall domestically. This is widely anticipated to build on that with room to spare.
I’ll project a Friday to Sunday gross between $110 to $115 million and a five-day topping $180 million.
Zootopia 2 opening weekend prediction: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Netflix will have some decisions to make when it comes to campaigning for their various entries at the 98th Academy Awards. As expected, Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite will be part of that process. The political thriller marks the director’s first effort behind the camera since 2017’s Detroit. While it didn’t generate any nominations eight years ago, her previous two (2009’s The Hurt Locker, 2012’s Zero Dark Thirty) scored a win and a nom, respectively, in Best Picture. For Locker, Bigelow became the first female to take the Best Director prize (two more have followed).
Dynamite premiered at Venice prior to its October 10th limited theatrical release and October 24th bow on the aforementioned streamer. The large ensemble cast includes Idris Elba, Rebecca Ferguson, Gabriel Basso, Jared Harris, Tracy Letts, Anthony Ramos, Moses Ingram, Jonah Hauer-King, Greta Lee, Kaitlyn Dever, and Jason Clarke.
Reviews indicate this a return to form for the filmmaker. Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic score are both 88 at press time. Best Picture and Director are certainly possibilities. As I mentioned, Netflix has some other potential Venice screening heavy hitters via Jay Kelly and Frankenstein.
The Hurt Locker‘s noms included Jeremy Renner in Actor while Jessica Chastain was up for Actress in Zero Dark Thirty. Word-of-mouth for Dynamite indicates unlikely possibilities for any of the cast. That said, the Academy could honor the whole group in the new Casting race. Other tech possibilities include Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score and Sound. There’s a shot for Original Screenplay though that competition is already looking packed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Netflix has put out Fixed this week and it marks the first R rated animation effort from Sony. Genndy Tartakovsky, best known for helming the Hotel Transylvania franchise, directs. The voice cast for the tale of a dog about to be neutered includes Adam DeVine, Idris Elba, Kathryn Hahn, Fred Armisen, Beck Bennett, and Bobby Moynihan.
Originally set for distribution by Warner Bros until they cut it loose, Netflix picked up the rights and reviews are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 63% with Metacritic at only 51. If Sausage Party couldn’t break into the Academy’s Animated Feature quintet with better marks, that leaves little hope for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount seeks mega millions at the multiplex as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 arrives December 20th. Based on the hugely successful video games series from Sega, Jeff Fowler is in the director’s chair just as he was for the first two. Ben Schwartz returns to voice the title character with Jim Carrey back as the live-action main antagonist. Other faces behind the mic include Colleen O’Shaughnessey, Idris Elba, and Keanu Reeves while James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Krysten Ritter, Natasha Rothwell, and Shemar Moore are among the in front of camera participants.
Over President’s Day weekend in 2020, the first Sonic took in $70 million over the four-day holiday. It ended up with $149 million as its earnings were disrupted by the pandemic that followed shortly after. In April of 2022, the sequel made $72 million for its start and $190 million stateside.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging suggesting this is the strongest of the trio. Despite direct competition from Mufasa: The Lion King, this should be crowned box office ruler of the pre-Christmas frame. I believe this continues the upward trajectory of the franchise with a high 70s sprint to the number one spot.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opening weekend prediction: $77.6 million
For my Mufasa: The Lion King prediction, click here:
Universal hopes that horror fans board The Last Voyage of the Demeter when it opens August 11th. Based on a chapter from Bram Stoker’s signature novel Dracula, André Øvredal (maker of Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark) directs Corey Hawkins, Aisling Franciosi, David Dastmalchian, Javier Botet, Liam Cunningham, and Woody Norman in the tale of passengers trying to surviving a trip from Transylvania to London.
The Dracula angle could succeed in getting some genre fans out, but this Voyage‘s marketing campaign seems to be lacking. At this point, the studio might settle for a premiere similar to its Idris Elba starrer Beast, which took in nearly $12 million in mid-August last year. It could also debut in range with the vampiric The Invitation, which didn’t reach $7 million a week after Beast opened.
A gross closer to The Invitation as opposed to Beast is where this might land.
The Last Voyage of the Demeter opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
Just like last year, the Marvel Cinematic Universe may land atop the charts over Labor Day weekend. This time around, it’ll be with considerably less money… as in, less than one-tenth of what we witnessed in 2021. Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition (with 11 minutes of extra footage) is scheduled for the widest (re)release of the holiday frame.
Steven Spielberg’s OG summer blockbuster Jaws also returns to cinemas. The only true newcomer is the Regina Hall/Sterling K. Brown satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul,, which is also available on streaming via Peacock.
My detailed prediction posts on each are accessible here:
Let’s start with Jesus as I have its $2.4 million projected Friday-Monday offering potentially falling outside of the top ten. There’s a slight chance it could surprise, but I doubt it.
There’s been a narrative developing for awhile that Top Gun: Maverick could manage to return to first position in its 15th week. During Labor Day, popular holdovers do often expand their gross from the previous frame. I expect that will be the case here. However, I do believe Spidey’s 3000 screens (some IMAX) should allow it to swing back to #1 after it originally debuted last December. This should leave the runner-up spot for Maverick or Bullet Train (they should be close). That’s a far cry from this same period in 2021 when Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings decimated the all-time Labor Day record with $94 million.
Jaws is only on a fraction of the webbed superhero’s venues (about 1200) so the possibilities are limited. My estimate of $3.1 million would probably put it in seventh place.
Current champ The Invitation hardly impressed in its premiere (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade, expect it to be one of the only leftovers that does see diminished returns. It should drop to at least fourth while the five spot could be close between DC League of Super-Pets and Beast.
And with that, let’s do a top 7 outlook and keep in mind these numbers are for the four-day holiday:
1. Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition
Predicted Gross: $7 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. The Invitation
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
6. Beast
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
7. Jaws
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (August 26-28)
I’ll go the obvious route… there weren’t many RSVP’s for YA horror tale The Invitation. This is the first time in 15 months that the #1 pic didn’t manage to make over $10 million. The Invitation stumbled with $6.8 million, below my $8.1 million forecast.
Bullet Train was second with $5.6 million (on target of my $5.5 million call) with an overall take of $78 million.
Top Gun: Maverick was third with $4.7 million (I went with $5.2 million) as the juggernaut has now gathered $691 million. The biggest hit of the year is on a glide path to topple Black Panther ($700 million) next and become the fifth largest domestic earner in history.
Beast had a hefty sophomore drop of 58% for $4.8 million and fourth place. That’s under my $5.7 million prediction. The subpar two-week tally is $20 million.
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, as anticipated, plummeted in its second weekend (its genre is extremely front loaded). After a fantastic $21 million start, Hero fell 78% to fifth with $4.6 million (I was more generous at $5 million). After ten days, it’s taken in $30 million stateside.
DC League of Super-Pets was sixth with $4.1 million (I said $4.6 million) for $74 million in its 5 weeks of release.
Finally, George Miller’s Three Thousand Years of Longing was a pricey dud for MGM. The Idris Elba/Tilda Swinton Djinn fantasy, with a reported $60 million budget, opened in 7th with a mere $2.9 million. I thought it could at least manage $4 million. The studio is certainly wishing they hadn’t spent what they did after that performance.
It’s not that I wished I hadn’t watched Three Thousand Years of Longing, George Miller’s deconstruction of a Djinn’s fulfillment offerings. There are fascinating moments and the maker of the Mad Max franchise will always be good for a visual spectacle. By its conclusion, I wished I’d been more compelled by its narratologist lead Alithea (Tilda Swinton). Early on she expresses that she finds her feelings via stories. That translates to her personal life where she claims to be content being a loner. In her professional life, Alithea basically regales conference attendees and students with her takes about grand tales and the mythology behind them.
While on assignment in Istanbul, she purchases an antique artifact that summons the Djinn (Idris Elba) in her hotel lavatory. The London scholar is soon presented with a predictable request – three wishes for the pointy eared visitor’s freedom. She doesn’t bite because her occupation tells her that the genie story is always cautionary in nature.
Alithea does get what she wants for awhile as the pair converse in their bathrobes. Djinn provides her with his history of being bottled and not bottled. As the title suggests, it’s 30 centuries of anecdotes and they involve harems of plus size concubines and being part of a Solomon and Sheba love triangle. The most effective involves a captive love interest (Burca Golgedar) whose genius inventions are ahead of their time and not proper for her gender to tout.
I will acknowledge that Longing is unpredictable in a frequently fun way as Djinn recounts his unique brand of cautionary tales (Alithea’s not exactly wrong with her gut reaction). The interplay between Swinton and Elba allows for some humorous and highly entertaining passages. When their association rises to a higher level, it’s where I felt Miller and cowriter Augusta Gore’s screenplay doesn’t emotionally land. The lover from the lamp’s past is more spellbinding than his present with Alithea. That makes the third act, in particular, disappointing and made me long for more from this story.
For the first time since May of 2021, we may have a box office outing where no picture tops $10 million. We’re in a bit of a late August spiral as the YA centered vampire tale The Invitation and George Miller’s genie saga Three Thousand Years of Longing debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’m not expecting much out of either. This isn’t a time when studios typically bring out heavy hitters (though it is worth noting that Universal impressed on this same weekend last year with Candyman‘s $22 million haul). I wouldn’t anticipate the newcomers coming anywhere close to that.
My Invitation estimate would give it to #1 spot while Longing could place anywhere from 2-7. I’m thinking #7 is more probable than second as the Tilda Swinton/Idris Elba fantasy seems to be suffering from a quiet marketing campaign.
The runner-up position could be determined by the sophomore drop of current champ Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, which easily surpassed expectations (more on that below). It’s worth noting that its immediate predecessor Dragon Ball Super: Broly experienced a second frame plummet of nearly 70%. Broly actually premiered on a Wednesday before MLK weekend in 2018. In six days, it took in $22 million (similar to Hero‘s three-day mark). Broly only managed $3 million in weekend #2. I think Hero should surpass that, but don’t be surprised it drops in the low 70s.
If so, Beast could stay in second place if it only loses half its audience. While its B Cinemascore grade isn’t great, the lack of competition could mean it avoids a precipitous fall. Bullet Train, Top Gun: Maverick, and DC League of Super-Pets should all hold solidly and that could place them above Longing.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top 7 looking:
1. The Invitation
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
5. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $5 million
6. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
7. Three Thousand Years of Longing
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (August 20-22)
As mentioned, it was a bountiful harvest for Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero as the animated Japanese martial arts fantasy crunched an impressive $21 million. That’s well above my $13.2 million projection. These titles are extremely front loaded so expect a sharp downturn, but that’s a terrific gross and we can anticipate plenty more wide openings for these genre titles.
Idris Elba battled a Beast in the form of a lion and the picture opened in line with most estimates. At $11.5 million (I said $11.3 million), it will hope to match its $36 million budget stateside in coming weeks.
Bullet Train was third with $8 million, rising ahead of my $7 million call. The three-week total is $69 million as it hopes to reach nine figures domestically.
Top Gun: Maverick soared to new heights with $5.9 million, a little under my $6.7 million prediction. In its 13th (!) weekend, Maverick surpassed Avengers: Infinity War to become the 6th largest domestic earner of all time. The tally is $683 million as it looks to top Black Panther‘s $700 million next.
Finally, DC League of Super-Pets rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I went with $5 million). The overall gross after 4 weeks is $67 million.
The easiest way to review Beast is as follows: if you want to watch Idris Elba attempt to cold-cock a lion, you’re in luck! Of course I want to see that and it happens in this survival thriller. The remaining hour and a half surrounding it is a disappointingly low energy affair with a screenplay that borders on laughable at times. The CG isn’t laughable, but I never forgot Elba and his daughters were battling a giant cat of pixelated proportions.
Elba is Dr. Samuels, who travels from America to South Africa for a needed excursion with daughters Meredith (Iyana Halley) and Norah (Leah Sava Jeffries). The family is mourning the recent loss of the matriarch who the doctor was separated from. They aren’t the only mammals grieving. Poachers have taken out a pride of lions, but one survived. That wounded creature (emotionally and physically I suppose) is hungry for revenge.
When the Samuels clan joins an old friend and wildlife biologist (Sharlto Copley) on a nature reserve trip, that vengeful roarer disrupts it. In Cujo style, the title character torments the family in and around their immobile vehicle. The movie itself struggles to get its motor running.
Baltasar Kormakur directs and he’s well-versed in nature tales like Everest and Adrift. His work is sometimes overly flashy or bordering on boring with a jump scare every few minutes to break the monotony. There’s hardly an in-between.
Beast could have coasted on its B flick concept. Ryan Engle’s clunky screenplay gets in the way from its lame family therapy sessions to lines designed for trailers only (“We’re in his territory now!”). The script attempts to push an anti-poaching theme… as evidenced by the youngest daughter at one point exclaiming “God, I hate these poachers!” That kind of subtlety is what you get here. If you want to watch Idris Elba punch a lion, expect to fight through the mediocrity of it all.
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