My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!
Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.
In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).
Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.
In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.
All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.
You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
BestPicture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. A Star Is Born
3. Beautiful Boy
4. Roma
5. First Man
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Boy Erased
8. Backseat
9. Peterloo
Other Possibilities:
10. Mary Queen of Scots
11. Widows
12. Black Panther
13. The Favourite
14. The Front Runner
15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
17. Crazy Rich Asians
18. Old Man & The Gun
19. Bohemian Rhapsody
20. Destroyer
21. Green Book
22. Mary Poppins Returns
23. At Eternity’s Gate
24. On the Basis of Sex
25. Ben Is Back
BestDirector
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Other Possibilities:
6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
7. Adam McKay, Backseat
8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
12. Steve McQueen, Widows
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Back at it again today with my very early Oscar predictions for 2018! We are now at Best Actor.
Yesterday, I discussed the Supporting categories. Earlier today, I posted my initial predictions for Actress. If you missed my take on them, you can peruse them here:
As mentioned in those posts, these are an early bird snapshot of where I see the races before they come into sharper focus beginning next week. That’s when the film festival kicks off and many of the Oscar bait fall titles will be screened for critics. Starting next Thursday (August 30), I’ll begin posting my weekly ranked predictions in the major film categories.
Tomorrow – look for Best Director and my first take on the new category everyone is talking about – Best Popular Film. Best Picture should be up Sunday!
Michael Gracey’s TheGreatestShowman doesn’t burden itself with much historical accuracy or being a full-fledged look at its title subject. Its pleasures are of the surface level variety. At one point, a stuffy critic begrudgingly tells P.T. Barnum that his show has succeeded in bringing joy to people. So does this musical in many moments.
Hugh Jackman is Barnum, an endless promoter who grew up poor and never forgot how he was treated by New York’s elite. He marries his childhood sweetheart Charity (Michelle Williams), who came up with wreath and privilege. After some career misfortune in the 19th century era Big Apple, Barnum develops his greatest idea: a stage experience featuring society’s freaks. This includes a bearded lady (Keala Settle) with a beautifully booming voice and a dwarf (Sam Humphrey) who dresses as a general. He teams up with playwright Phillip Carlyle (Zac Efron), who also hails from the aristocracy but feels more at home among these outcasts. Phillip also finds love of the forbidden kind with the show’s trapeze artist (Zendaya).
While Barnum finally finds the financial success he’s longed for, it doesn’t buy him respect and that’s a consistent through line in the screenplay. Both the wealthy class and hecklers who lurk around the theater believe the freak show atmosphere is a disgrace. Barnum tries to combat this by touring with famed European opera star Jenny Lind (Rebecca Ferguson). Both his family and circus employees feel the neglect.
The brisk 105 minute running time features 11 song and dance numbers that move the plot along, often in montage fashion. Even a cursory Wiki read of Barnum’s grand life reveals that Jenny Bicks and Bill Condon’s script aren’t making a biopic. Like the man it’s about, this picture is style over substance. The message of inclusion and acceptance is unmistakable and frequently touching. Most importantly, the musical numbers (from the team behind LaLaLand) produce plentiful happy feels.
With his theater background, Jackman is more than well suited to play the man in the top hat. He’s the focal point in many of the song and dance interludes. Yet it’s “Rewrite the Stars”, a gorgeously choreographed sequence with Efron and Zendaya, that proved most memorable for me.
A stuffy critic could gripe that a rewrite should have explored more of Barnum’s real existence. However, the joyous vibe while I was watching is enough to justify admission here.
We may be smack dab in the middle of the summer movie season, but Oscar season will be taking shape before we know it. This week, the organizers of the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals have unveiled lineups for the pictures that will be premiering at their events in a few weeks. Many of them are awards hopefuls.
To give you an idea of the importance of festivals when it comes to Oscar nominees, six of last year’s nine nominees premiered at some combination of Toronto, Venice, Telluride, New York, Sundance, or Cannes. Every Best Picture winner from this decade and beyond played at one of them. The last one that didn’t was The Departed back in 2006.
The months of September-December are the fertile ground for most nominated features. Last year, seven of the nine Picture nominees came out in that time frame. In 2016 – it was 8 out of 9.
Beginning in late August/early September, I will begin my weekly Oscar prediction columns. It works like this:
Late August/Early September – first posting of predictions in the categories of Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Months of September and October – weekly Oscar predictions column post covering those 6 categories, as well as Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay. For Best Picture, I will be ranking possibilities numbered 1-25. For other categories, it will be numbered 1-15.
Months of November through announcement of nominations – weekly Oscar predictions column covering every category involving feature films. For Best Picture, I will be ranking possibilities numbered 1-15. For other categories, it will be numbered 1-10.
While these posts are a month away, today I bring you 25 fall awards hopefuls that I suspect I’ll be mentioning frequently. Most of these are premiering at the high-profile quartet of upcoming fests (Venice, Toronto, New York, Telluride). Some aren’t, but could certainly be added to Telluride or New York especially (as they’re more known for surprise screenings).
Let’s get to it!
A Star is Born
The third remake of the musical drama marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper and features a potential showcase role for his costar Lady Gaga. Early word of mouth is already strong.
At Eternity’s Gate
He received a nomination for his supporting work last year for The Florida Project and Willem Dafoe plays Vincent Van Gogh in what could be another awards bait role.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Backseat
Expect Adam McKay’s follow-up to The Big Short to receive plenty of attention. Christian Bale is Cheney with Amy Adams as wife Lynne and last year’s Supporting Actor winner Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Beautiful Boy
Steve Carell plays the father of a meth addict played by Timothee Chalamet, who was nominated last year for Call Me by Your Name.
Ben is Back
Lucas Hedges and Julia Roberts headline this family drama that premieres at Toronto.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Bohemian Rhapsody
Despite some behind the scenes drama in its filming, all eyes will be on Rami Malek’s work as Queen front man Freddie Mercury.
Boy Erased
Perhaps an even larger showcase role for Lucas Hedges is this drama where he plays a homosexual sent to conversion camp. Joel Edgerton directs and costars along with Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe.
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Melissa McCarthy received an Academy Award nomination with her breakthrough role in Bridesmaids. This drama about writer Lee Israel could muster attention for her yet again.
First Man
Director Damien Chazelle has seen both of his efforts (Whiplash, La La Land) nominated for Best Picture and he’s the youngest filmmaker to ever win Best Director. His third pic is a Neil Armstrong biopic starring Ryan Gosling. It opens the Venice Film Festival.
If Beale Street Could Talk
The follow-up to his Oscar winning Moonlight, Barry Jenkins directs this drama set in 1970s Harlem.
July 22
United 93 and Captain Phillips director Paul Greengrass brings his latest to Netflix and it focuses on the 2011 terrorist attacks in Norway.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Life Itself
Premiering at Toronto, this ensemble drama includes Oscar Isaac, Olivia Munn, Annette Bening, and Antonio Banderas.
Mary Poppins Returns
She’s already a contender for A Quiet Place and Emily Blunt could face competition from herself with Disney’s expected monster hit.
Mary Queen of Scots
They were both nominated for Best Actress last year and now Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie star in this historical drama about the title character and Queen Elizabeth I.
Old Man & The Gun
David Lowery directs Robert Redford in the true life tale of a prison escape artist. Sissy Spacek and Casey Affleck costar.
On the Basis of Sex
The documentary RBG could get noticed by the Documentary branch, as could this biopic which casts Felicity Jones as Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Peterloo
Acclaimed British director Mike Leigh returns with this historical 19th century drama.
Roma
This Mexican family drama is Alfonso Cuaron’s first directorial effort since his acclaimed Gravity.
Suspiria
Call Me by Your Name maker Luca Guadagnino shifts gears for this remake of the 1970s horror classic. Don’t be surprised if this receives attention in some technical categories.
The Favourite
The Lobster director Yorgos Lanthimos is behind this historical drama featuring Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz.
The Front Runner
Jason Reitman directs this biopic of failed Presidential candidate Gary Hart with Hugh Jackman cast in the role.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
The Sisters Brothers
John C. Reilly, Joaquin Phoenix, and Jake Gyllenhaal are among the cast in this Western from acclaimed French director Jacques Audiard.
Welcome to Marwen
Steve Carell stars in this unique looking drama from Forrest Gump maker Robert Zemeckis.
Widows
It’s been five years between projects for Oscar winning 12 Years a Slave director Steve McQueen. This heist thriller stars recent winner Viola Davis.
And there’s your very early preview of some titles to keep an eye on over the coming months. Those Oscar posts will start rolling out weekly in about a month! Stay tuned…
The most high-profile Oscar precursor arrives Sunday night when Seth Meyers hosts the Golden Globe awards. Of course, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association operates a bit differently by divvying its major categories (Picture, Actor, Actress) into Drama and Musical/Comedy.
As has been a common theme lately, one of the “Musical/Comedy” entries is a bit questionable – Jordan Peele’s Get Out. To be fair, it is a difficult picture to classify. The Golden Globes can often shed some light on Oscar contenders or solidify front runners. Here are my predictions, race by race, on who and what will emerge victorious and my runner-up picks:
Best Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: The Shape of Water
Runner-Up: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: The Disaster Artist, Get Out, The Greatest Showman, I, Tonya, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Lady Bird
Runner-Up: The Disaster Artist
Best Director
Nominees: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water), Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World), Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Predicted Winner: del Toro
Runner-Up: Nolan
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Tom Hanks (The Post), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
Predicted Winner: Oldman
Runner-Up: Chalamet
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game), Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Meryl Streep (The Post), Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
Predicted Winner: Hawkins
Runner-Up: McDormand
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes), Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Predicted Winner: Franco
Runner-Up: Jackman
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul), Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Predicted Winner: Ronan
Runner-Up: Robbie
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Predicted Winner: Plummer
Runner-Up: Rockwell
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Hong Chau (Downsizing), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Predicted Winner: Janney
Runner-Up: Metcalf
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Lady Bird, Molly’s Game, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Runner-Up: Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent
Predicted Winner: Coco
Runner-Up: Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: A Fantastic Woman, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, Loveless, The Square
Predicted Winner: First, They Killed My Father
Runner-Up: A Fantastic Woman
Best Score
Nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Dunkirk
Runner-Up: The Shape of Water
Best Song
Nominees: “Home” from Ferdinand, “Mighty River” from Mudbound, “Remember Me” from Coco, “The Star” from The Star, “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
Predicted Winner: “This is Me”
Runner-Up: “Remember Me”
I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with how I did! Until then…
A recurring theme in the X-Men universe has been to celebrate being different. This normally applies to the mutants being discriminated against. That’s certainly present in James Mangold’s Logan. However, unlike previous franchise entries, this one strives to be celebrated for its own efforts to be different. It’s a hard R rated venture where Hugh Jackman’s title character has developed a drinking problem and considerably more F bombs in his vocabulary (it’s the first word he utters). His claws shed the kind of blood you won’t witness in a typical PG-13 comic book adaptation.
This is a somber affair with a tone that is legitimately jarring at first. Deadpool may have been the first hugely mainstream R flick of the genre, but that’s all they have in common. Logan is different for sure, but I found that to be cause for celebration only some of the time.
There is little for Logan to be happy about as we open. It’s 2029 and the world’s mutant population is aging. No mutant has been born in a quarter century. The former Wolverine spends his days driving a limo in Texas for fat cats and bachelor parties. He drinks a lot and does his best to hide those infamous claws.
He also serves as caretaker for a frail Professor Xavier (Patrick Stewart), whose brainiac abilities have been threatened by brain disease. Logan is assisted by albino mutant Caliban (Stephen Merchant in a fine performance). Our title hero’s past glories are sought again when he comes into contact with a mutant who isn’t supposed to be exist.
Laura (Dafne Keen) is a young girl with mutations similar to Logan’s. It turns out the military is raising youthful mutants for their own destructive purposes in Mexico. She escapes and Logan is asked to take her to a North Dakota location where others of her kind have set up a safe haven coined Eden. Logan isn’t eager to do so, but soon enough he, the girl, and Professor X are on a savage road trip. Standing in their way is Donald Pierce (Boyd Holbrook), head of a military organization termed the Reavers and Zander Rice (Richard E. Grant), the scientist who’s experimented on the new mutants. In a series that has seen villains both memorable and not, this pair resides more in the latter category.
Logan isn’t really about its bad guys though. It’s more focused on the demons that Logan is battling. Oh… and he’s actually literally battling himself too in the form of a nifty genetically engineered version of himself created by those villains. The toned down story (albeit with plenty of hardcore violence) allows Jackman to go places he’s never entered into before with his signature character. Same goes for Stewart’s Professor X. The movie’s points on being a caretaker may resonate with many viewers not accustomed to seeing it in a comic book adaptation. Both actors give impressive performances, as does young Keen in her often silent work.
Ironically, it’s when we realize that the new mutants have been so inspired by the X-Men tales that came before it that Logan generates its greatest power. In other words, that would be the kind of stories we saw in the previous movies that this strives to be so dissimilar from. The final act is most potent and I felt at times it takes a little longer than it should to get there. When it finally does, Logan provides a fulfilling conclusion to Jackman’s work as Logan/Wolverine as the claws draw to a close.
20th Century Fox waited until the last minute to lift their review embargo off The Greatest Showman, which is out in theaters today. That’s usually not a great sign and that’s been mostly proven. The musical drama featuring Hugh Jackman as circus leader P.T. Barnum is garnering mixed notices and it stands at only 43% on Rotten Tomatoes.
For the last several months, Showman hasn’t been considered much of a factor in the Oscar mix. The reaction out this morning solidifies that notion. Even though it was nominated for Golden Globes in Best Musical/Comedy and Actor for Jackman, I expect neither to be possible when it comes to the Academy. The same, by the way, can be said for Jackman’s more acclaimed work in Logan.
Reviews have noted that Showman is more successful as an exercise in style than substance. For that, it could factor into some technical categories. Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound Mixing are all feasible nominations, but there’s a good chance that never materializes with any of them. The Globes did nominate “This is Me” for Song and Oscar could follow suit there.
Bottom line: The Greatest Showman will not play in the major categories, but down the line technical recognition is still on the table.
Greetings everyone! It’s Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are back. In the past week, we’ve seen SAG nominations (often a better indicator than the Globes when it comes to precursors) released. This week, we’re going to see review embargoes lifted for All the Money in the World (tomorrow) and The Greatest Showman (Wednesday). These are really the final two pieces of the awards puzzle.
Here are the significant developments and changes in my rankings from the last 7 days:
Best Picture remains the same nine nominees, but Phantom Thread is, well, hanging by one with Mudbound, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, and (maybe) All the Money in the World close behind.
Daniel Kaluuya moves up to #6 in Best Actor possibilities. I’m not ready to put him in, but he’s making Franco and Hanks look a bit vulnerable.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve replaced Michael Stuhlbarg with Woody Harrelson.
In Supporting Actress, I’ve replaced Melissa Leo with Octavia Spencer. I nearly went with Holly Hunter for the 5 spot.
In Adapted Screenplay where the fifth slot looks up for grabs, I’ve put in All the Money in the World in for now (replacing Wonder).
The Foreign Language film race released its nine possible contenders. Surprisingly, BPM (Beats Per Minute) and Angelina Jolie’s First, They Killed My Father were left out.
The Visual Effects category named their ten possible films. Left off were Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Beauty and the Beast. I had all four in my top ten possibles, but not in my predicted five.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. The Post (PR: 4)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 7)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder (PR: 5)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)
8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
9. Ferdinand (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Boss Baby
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. The Square (PR: 3)
3. Loveless (PR: 5)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
5. In the Fade (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Insult (PR: 8)
7. The Wound (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Felicite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BPM (Beats Per Minute)
First, They Killed My Father
Thelma
The Divine Order
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: Not Ranked)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 5)
7. One of Us (PR: 7)
8. LA 92 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 6)
10. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
10. Get Out (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Call Me by Your Name
Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonderstruck
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
**Blogger’s Note (12/19/17): A days after my initial estimates, the Academy has announced the seven films that will compete in the category. My updated predictions are reflected here:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
3. Wonder (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
5. Bright (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Ghost in the Shell (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
Logan
The Shape of Water
The Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
It
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Okja (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Beauty and the Beast
Wonder Woman
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 10)
That gives us the following nomination breakdowns:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
The Post
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Lady Bird
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, Wonder Woman, Wonder, Baby Driver, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip
My Oscar picks will be updated next on Christmas Day!
20th Century Fox is hoping moviegoers will be in tune with their offering The Greatest Showman over the long holiday when it opens next Wednesday. The musical period piece casts Hugh Jackman in the role of circus master P.T. Barnum with a supporting cast that includes Zac Efron, Michelle Williams, Rebecca Ferguson, and Zendaya. It marks the directorial debut of Michael Gracey.
Mr. Jackman has found Christmastime success in this genre before five years with Les Miserables. Expectations aren’t quite as high here, but the reported $84 million production will try to bring in an adult female audience that could be slightly under served. Showman received three Golden Globe nods just yesterday for Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy), for Jackman in Best Actor, and for Original Song.
That said, there is some direct competition in the form of Pitch Perfect 3, which arrives two days later and Downsizing, which is also looking to attract an older crowd. I’ll say Showman manages a mid to possibly high teens gross for the four-day weekend that includes Christmas and low to possibly mid 20s for its six-day take.
The Greatest Showman opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million (Friday to Monday), $22.4 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 