April 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (04/04): On the eve of their premieres, some changes:

Shazam! from $59.5 million to $52.5 million

Pet Sematary from $28.7 million to $34.7 million

April has sprung at the box office and we have three new wide releases hitting multiplexes: critically hailed DC superhero pic Shazam!, Stephen King adapted horror remake Pet Sematary, and civil rights drama The Best of Enemies with Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/27/shazam-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/28/pet-sematary-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/30/the-best-of-enemies-box-office-prediction/

I’m on the higher end of the range with Shazam!, believing it could reach awfully close to $60 million or over and easily bolting into the top spot. Sematary could also exceed my estimate, but I’ll go high 20s for a second place showing. As for Enemies, I’m not as optimistic and my $5.9 million prediction would put it at #6.

Holdovers Dumbo and Us could be in line for drops close to 50% in their second and third respective weekends with Captain Marvel rounding out the top five.

And with that, my view of the frame ahead:

1. Shazam!

Predicted Gross: $52.5 million

2. Pet Sematary

Predicted Gross: $34.7 million

3. Dumbo

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Us

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

5. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

Box Office Results (March 2931)

Tim Burton’s live action version of Disney’s Dumbo had no trouble hitting #1, but did so with rather mediocre results. Coming off mixed reviews, the elephant tale managed $45.9 million. That’s quite lower than my $55.6 million projection. That’s far less than other recent Mouse Factory renderings of their animated classics.

Us fell to second with a mid 50s dip to $33.2 million. I forecasted more at $38.4 million. Yet the $20 million budgeted horror flick stands at $127 million in just ten days.

Captain Marvel was third with $20.6 million (I said $20.2 million) for $353 million total and $400 million in its sights.

The success story of the weekend was pro-life Pure Flix drama Unplanned, which easily exceeded expectations in fourth with $6.3 million. I was considerably lower at $2.6 million.

Five Feet Apart was fifth with $6.1 million (I said $5.9 million). Tally is $35 million.

With Unplanned reaching the top five, that put Wonder Park in sixth with $5 million – on target with my $4.9 million prediction. The animated feature has earned $37 million.

Hotel Mumbai expanded to nearly 1000 screens and was eighth with $3.1 million compared to my $3.4 million.

Finally, Matthew McConaughey had yet another box office wipeout as The Beach Bum was tenth with $1.7 million (I said $1.6 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Hotel Mumbai Box Office Prediction

The true life action thriller Hotel Mumbai expands nationwide this weekend after its limited engagement over this past one. Recounting the 2008 Taj Mahal Palace Hotel terror attacks in India, the film marks the directorial debut of Anthony Maras. Dev Patel and Armie Hammer headline with costars including Anupam Kher and Jason Isaacs.

Mumbai was originally screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. Over the weekend, it managed a per theater average of over $20,000 on four screens.

That’s pretty decent, but that average should dip significantly as it’s scheduled to hit about 800 this weekend. The number is lower than other new wide releases like Unplanned and The Beach Bum. However, Mumbai could top the grosses of those titles – making it the biggest earning newcomer that isn’t named Dumbo.

Hotel Mumbai opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Dumbo prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/20/dumbo-box-office-prediction/

For my Unplanned prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/unplanned-box-office-prediction/

For my The Beach Bum prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/the-beach-bum-box-office-prediction/