A performer known for a groundbreaking comedy sketch show directing a horror film with racial overtones? Get Out is certainly not your typical genre fare nor are its reviews. We’ll see how this mix plays with audiences next weekend. Jordan Peele (one half of Comedy Central’s Key and Peele) is behind the camera for the tale of an interracial couple who visit the girl’s Caucasian parents. They find a history of African Americans disappearing in the community.
Daniel Kaluuya. Allison Williams, Bradley Whitford, and Catherine Keener headline the cast. When Get Out premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January, it did so to many raves and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The electric word of mouth should provide a boost, but I’m skeptical as to how much of one. Traditional slasher horror fans may not know what to make of it and the edgy subject matter may not necessarily bring others in.
That said, I believe a debut in the mid teens is likely which would be a perfectly acceptable roll out.
After nearly 12 years, that creepy contortionist Samara and that deadly videotape returns to the silver screen when Rings debuts next weekend. The horror flick reboots a franchise that began in 2002 with the American version of a 1998 Japanese pic. It was a huge success, followed up by a somewhat lackluster 2005 sequel. The question is whether young audiences who flock to the genre and now older moviegoers who were transfixed by the original turn out.
F. Javier Gutierrez takes over directorial reigns in this follow-up set 13 years after part two. The cast includes Matilda Lutz, Alex Roe, Johnny Galecki, and Vincent D’Onofrio.
Curiously, Rings has been pushed back on multiple occasions. First scheduled for fall of 2015, then spring 2016, and then October – Paramount finally settled for February 2017. The stateside version of The Ring in 2002 started off with a decent $15 million opening before its solid word-of-mouth carried it to a $129 million overall domestic gross. The sequel debuted much bigger with $35 million, but petered out quickly with a $76 million eventual tally.
I don’t expect Rings to come anywhere near the franchise high of Ring Two. There’s also a football game that Sunday that could deter some viewers away. That said, we’ve seen the horror genre outperform expectations twice already in the new year – when The Bye Bye Man took in nearly $16 million out of the gate and Split made $40 million for its start. This could also mean genre enthusiasts may have had their fill in recent weeks. I believe Rings manages to just top $20 million.
Rings opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million
For my The Space Between Us prediction, click here:
The cinematic horror stylings of M. Night Shyamalan returns to theaters next weekend when Split debuts. His latest fright fest stars James McAvoy as a man with multiple personalities who kidnaps three teen girls. Anya Taylor-Joy and Betty Buckley are among the costars acting alongside all of McAvoy’s characters.
Split screened at a couple of film festivals during the fall and early word suggests a return to form for the auteur. The current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 82%. Of course, Shyamalan’s filmography is a checkered one. He sprinted out of the gate with commercial and critical hits such as TheSixthSense, Unbreakable, and Signs. Disappointments from critics and audiences would come with LadyintheWater, TheHappening, and AfterEarth. His previous effort, 2015’s TheVisit, drew mixed reaction from reviewers and crowds yet it debuted with a better than anticipated $25 million weekend and $65M overall domestic take.
In fact, the smallest first weekend from the director since he’s become a celebrity in his own right remains LadyintheWater at $18 million. I incorrectly predicted TheVisit would open under that over one year ago and was proven wrong.
With solid reviews and effective TV spots and trailers, I’ll predict Split gets over that $18 million figure and just shy of $20M.
Split opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my xXx: ReturnofXanderCage prediction, click here:
Horror fans get their first taste of the genre in 2017 as The Bye Bye Man hits theaters next weekend. The low-budget flick finds a group of college students tormented by the title character (Doug Jones). Costars include Douglas Smith, Cressida Bonas, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Faye Dunaway.
Made for just $6 million, Bye Bye is likely to turn a profit no matter what. Scary movies are notoriously tough to predict (they over perform more often than not), yet I’m not sure this will conjure up much business. It could perform similarly to last January’s The Boy, which opened to $10.8M. Bye Bye will have the four-day MLK weekend to try and reach double digits, but I’ll predict it falls just short of that (still managing to easily top its price tag out of the gate).
The Bye Bye Man opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
A home invasion horror flick where the home invaders are kind of the good guys, Don’tBreathe is a pretty nifty and sometimes nasty little experience. It comes from Fede Alvarez, who’s shown himself as a gifted filmmaker in the genre after making 2013’s EvilDead remake.
We open with three Detroit youngsters who earn some pocket change ripping off nice cribs. It’s rather easy work for them because nice guy Alex (Dylan Minnette) has a dad with a home security business, giving him access to precious info. There’s the harder edged Money (Daniel Zovatto) and his gal Rocky (Jane Levy), who Alex has a crush on. Rocky is our central heroine character. She lives in a low income Motor City neighborhood with a very trashy mom, her loser boyfriend, and a sweet younger sister that she wants to show a better life. I half expected Eminem to rap during her background scene.
The trio get a tip on a new property to focus on and it’s not a typical one. The new mark is a military vet who resides in a poor neighborhood where the homes around him are abandoned. Yet they believe there’s a lot of green there as he received a big settlement after his daughter was killed in an auto accident. It’s a large enough potential payout to send them California dreamin’, so off they go.
What they discover is this robbery victim is unlike any other. First, he’s blind. He’s also got a vicious dog and a casa with all kinds of surprises in store. This sets up a scenario where the criminals become the hunted in The Blind Man’s twisted playhouse.
The occupant is played with supreme creepiness by Stephen Lang. A character actor who’s impressed in all kinds of roles, it’s a kick to see him let loose here. As a side note, he was also the best thing in the long forgotten Michael J. Fox/James Woods buddy cop comedy TheHardWay 25 years ago in which he also played one disturbed dude. The rest of the cast looks appropriately mortified during their during their terrible, horrible, no good, very bad burglary. For that reference, look up Minnette’s filmography. I had to in order to remind myself what I’d seen him in before.
There’s some twists that come later and the main one is a demented doozy. With its grindhouse title and lower end budget to match, Don’tBreathe should please slasher enthusiasts with its welcome uncomplicated story. When we are introduced to one character unexpectedly, the levels of plausibility are stretched greatly if you seriously ponder it. However, we don’t go into pics like this holding our breath for that nor should we care. This delivers enough of the goods that we honestly don’t.
The first weekend of December is typically a very light frame for new product and 2016 is no different as horror flick Incarnate is the only new offering. From Blumhouse Tilt (a studio that makes their pics cheap and fast), the exorcism tale stars Aaron Eckhart. It’s been a busy year for the lead actor, as he’s already appeared in supporting roles this fall with hit Sully and flop BleedforThis. Brad Peyton (who made last summer’s SanAndreas) is behind the camera and costars include Carice van Houtem and Catalina Sandino Moreno.
Despite a release in European territories last summer, Incarnate has sat on the shelf waiting for U.S. distribution. That’s usually not a sign of confidence from the studio and neither is its dumping ground release date. This should follow the pattern of many other first weekend of December premieres and post extremely low numbers.
Incarnate opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million
The low-budget horror pic LightsOut comes from producer James Wan, who’s mastered the art of using sound effects to max effect in his Conjuring franchise. Here, director David F. Sandberg and screenwriter Eric Heisserer leave it to their production crew as well to generate the vast majority of scares. In something named LightsOut, you could correctly surmise that the lighting technicians are of key value here. Their work is often impressive.
If only there were a compelling story to match the occasionally nifty crew contributions. The pic opens with an effective intro where a textile warehouse owner meets his demise due to a shadowy female figure who appears only in the darkness. Flash forward to the man’s widow (Maria Bello) living with her grade school age son Martin (Gabriel Bateman) and trying to cope with his death. Her grieving patterns are a bit off kilter as she seems to be conversing with that same otherworldly creature who took her husband away. This overall creepiness leads Martin to seek out his half sister Rebecca (Teresa Palmer). She left years ago due to her own father’s abandonment and Mom’s strange behavior. Together, the siblings uncover a lot of backstory to explain what is happening. Tagging along is Rebecca’s boyfriend (Alexander DiPersia), who gets a gold star for sticking around when the going gets rough.
I give LightsOut some credit for attempting to fashion a narrative that goes out of its way to justify its character’s behavior, particularly with Bello. She veers between pharmaceutically chill and understandably freaked out. It helps that the performances are uniformly solid. A problem here is that once the existence of Diana (she’s the spirit wreaking all this havoc) is addressed, Lights sort of lumbers on with the same scare tactics repeatedly. There’s only so many times the flick of a lighting switch and the boo moment that follows doesn’t become redundant. It’s an issue that plagued the Conjuring sequel with its familiar sound effects jump moments from the original. In the plus column is that director Sandberg keeps it brisk at just 81 minutes. For a horror flick freaky Friday night, you could do a lot worse than this. Still, there’s plenty else that illuminates the genre in superior ways.
Two Halloween frames ago, the low-budget horror flick Ouija had a strong box office game. It opened to $19.8 million on its way to a $50M overall domestic gross. So it’s no surprise that its sequel (or prequel apparently) Ouija: Origin of Evil is in theaters next weekend.
The original cost $5 million. Evil only upped the budget slightly to $6 million, so profitability shouldn’t be an issue for Blumhouse Productions (a studio known for making their projects quickly and cheaply). Mike Flanagan takes over directorial duties from Stiles White and the cast includes Elizabeth Reaser, Annalise Basso, and Henry Thomas (Elliot from E.T.!).
Being the only horror title debuting around Halloween should help here, but I’m not convinced this will open on par with its predecessor. While it’s been a nice 2016 for the genre, Ouija wasn’t exactly considered a classic. A decently fair comparison could be Sinister 2, which opened to just $10 million in the summer of 2015 after the first one made $18 million for its start.
I’ll say Ouija part deux manages a mid teens origin and not high teens.
Ouija: Origin of Evil opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
Seventeen years ago, The Blair Witch Project came out of nowhere and turned into a 1999 summertime smash. The found footage horror pic (we can basically thank it for kicking off that craze) was initially shot for a tiny $60,000 and made $140 million domestically and $248 million worldwide. A year later, a quasi-sequel entitled Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 failed to connect with audiences.
This time around, we have a direct sequel to the original and it was shockingly a secret up until a couple of months ago. The director/writer horror team of Adam Wingard and Simon Barrett have been responsible for some critically acclaimed genre titles such as You’re Next and The Guest. Their latest venture was said to be The Woods and there was even a trailer for it. It wasn’t until this summer’s San Diego Comic Con (where it screened to great buzz) that it was revealed as Blair Witch. Like the 1999 pic, the cast is made up of relative or total unknowns.
Backstory explained, let’s get to its box office potential. First things first – scare tactics have been a bright spot at the multiplexes lately. The Conjuring 2 debuted to $40 million. Lights Out surprised many with a $21 million premiere and Don’t Breathe exceeded all expectations with $26 million out of the gate. That bodes well for this.
One potential concern: will younger viewers feel the connection to a franchise that has laid dormant for over a decade and a half? While the original was a moneymaking sensation, reaction to it was actually polarized and that may have contributed to the mediocre returns of the 2000 follow-up.
That said, I still envision Blair Witch reaching mid to high 20s next weekend with strong word of mouth from its screening helping.
Blair Witch opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million
For my Bridget Jones’s Baby prediction, click here:
If you haven’t heard much about The Disappointments Room – all I can say is that’s something you share with this blogger. It opens next weekend on approximately 1500 screens and I’ll be damned if I’ve seen a TV spot for it yet. That doesn’t bode well.
It does have some recognizable names and faces behind it. D.J. Caruso, maker of Distrubia, Eagle Eye, and I Am Number Four, directs with Kate Beckinsale, Lucas Till, and Gerald McRaney (TV’s Major Dad!) among the cast. It’s written by Wentworth Miller, star of TV’s “Prison Break”. Billed as a horror film, maybe it would stand a decent chance at OK box office dollars if anyone knew much about it. After all, the genre has performed quite well in 2016.
However, Rogue Pictures appears to have little confidence in selling it and I’ll predict there’s lot of disappointment in the rooms of their offices come next weekend.
The Disappointments Room opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
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