Tag: Horror

Bad Samaritan Box Office Prediction

The horror thriller Bad Samaritan arrives in theaters next weekend and it seems to be flying pretty far under the radar. Dean Devlin directs his sophomore pic, but he’s been no stranger to audiences for decades. He was the producing partner of Roland Emmerich and was behind the scenes with efforts including Stargate, Independence Day, and the unfortunate 1998 version of Godzilla. Just last year, he put out his debut – disaster flick Geostorm. That mega-budgeted effort took in a weak $33 million domestically. Compared to what I expect Samaritan to do, Geostorm might be considered a blockbuster.

David Tennant, Robert Sheehan, Carlito Olivero, and Kerry Condon are among the cast members in the home invasion tale that turns into a fright fest. Genre fans have had their fix as of late with A Quiet Place and Truth or Dare.

Samaritan is slated to open on roughly 1800 screens, which is actually higher than Overboard or Tully (the two features opening on the same day). Even with more showings, I’ll project this premieres third of the three new releases in theaters that should be a quiet place of their own.

Bad Samaritan opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million

For my Overboard prediction, click here:

Overboard Box Office Prediction

For my Tully prediction, click here:

Tully Box Office Prediction

Truth or Dare Box Office Prediction

Blumhouse Productions and Universal Pictures are hopeful horror fans will be game for Truth or Dare next weekend. Debuting on Friday the 13th, the film puts a scary spin on the time honored contest that we all familiarized ourselves with in our teens. That’s the target audience that it wishes to reach. Jeff Wadlow, who directed Kick–Ass 2, is behind the camera with a cast including Lucy Hale, Tyler Posey, Violett Beane, Hayden Szeto, and Landon Liboiron.

Originally scheduled to premiere on April 27, the pic wisely moved off that weekend when Iron Man, Black Panther, and other Avengers claimed it. However, the current release date poses its own problems as fellow genre title A Quiet Place will be in its sophomore frame and likely still making noise.

That said, Blumhouse has a knack for turning low-budget fright fests into hits. They’ve just come off a banner 2017 that included Split, Get Out, and Happy Death Day. I don’t, however, feel Truth or Dare will manage that trio’s grosses. I’ll estimate a debut in the mid teens range.

Truth or Dare opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my Rampage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/rampage-box-office-prediction/

A Quiet Place Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, A Quiet Place looks to make a lot of noise at the box office and early indications are that it may well succeed. The horror pic comes from John Krasinski, best known to many as Jim from “The Office”. The director stars alongside his real life spouse Emily Blunt with Millicent Simmonds and Noah Jupe playing their children. The foursome play a family trying desperately to survive in a world terrorized by creatures that attack if you make a sound.

The Paramount release garnered significant buzz when it screened at the South by Southwest Festival earlier this year. Krasinski’s previous directorial outing, comedic drama 2016’s The Hollars, made little impression with moviegoers. Look for his career behind the camera to be on the upswing following this. Critical praise has been vocal and it’s currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The creepy and nearly silent trailers are effective and the marketplace seems primed for a hit in the genre.

Add all that up and I believe the opening for Quiet will be anything but. I could see this debuting between the $26 million achieved by 2016’s Don’t Breathe and the $33 million haul of last year’s Get Out.

A Quiet Place opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million

For my Blockers prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/28/blockers-box-office-prediction/

For my The Miracle Season prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/30/the-miracle-season-box-office-prediction/

For my Chappaquiddick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/30/chappaquiddick-box-office-prediction/

The Strangers: Prey at Night Box Office Prediction

It’s been nearly a decade since Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman were terrorized by sadistic home invaders in The Strangers. The horror flick turned into an unexpected hit early in the summer of 2008 with a $20 million opening and $52 million overall domestic gross.

With a new cast and director in tow, long gestating sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night enters theaters next weekend. Johannes Roberts, who directed his own surprise hit 47 Meters Down just last summer, is behind the camera with a cast led by Christina Hendricks and Martin Henderson.

The question here is rather simple: will audiences have enough of a memory or fondness for the original to turn up? The horror genre has certainly seen its share of impressive performers lately and it could potentially fill the market niche.

That said, I’m skeptical. I’ll estimate that Prey earns less than half of what its predecessor accomplished some 10 years ago.

The Strangers: Prey at Night opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million

For my A Wrinkle in Time prediction, click here:

A Wrinkle in Time Box Office Prediction

For my The Hurricane Heist prediction, click here:

The Hurricane Heist Box Office Prediction

For my Gringo prediction, click here:

Gringo Box Office Prediction

Winchester Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (01/31): I am revisiting my Winchester prediction from $14.1 million to $9.1 million

Helen Mirren goes into horror mode next weekend with the release of Winchester. The supernatural period piece comes from Michael and Peter Spierig, directors of Daybreakers and last year’s Jigsaw. Costars include Jason Clarke, Angus Sampson, and Sarah Snook.

Subtitled The House that Ghosts Built, the Lionsgate release is hoping to bring in genre fans. Horror pics have experienced a good run over the last several months and that could propel this to a more than anticipated debut.

That said, while there’s no competition opening against it, there is a certain football game between New England and Philadelphia on Sunday. The Super Bowl weekend is typically not a robust one at the box office as February heavy hitters wait in the wings.

I’ll project a low to mid teens debut.

Winchester opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million

Happy Death Day Movie Review

Happy Death Day begins with a universal disruption. Not the world suffering a catastrophe or anything of that sort, but the actual Universal logo repeating itself three times. It’s a signal of events to come in this horror version of Groundhog Day from the Blumhouse studio, which specializes in bargain basement budgeted genre pics.

The world as a whole may not be experiencing a crisis, but college student Tree (Jessica Rothe) sure is. Her birthday begins as many do for undergraduates. She wakes up in the dorm room of Carter (Israel Broussard) after a drunken night out. Not remembering the previous evening’s events, Tree makes a hasty exit complete with shame walking. She attends class where we learn she’s carrying on an affair with her professor. Tree doesn’t really gel with her sorority sisters, including her kindly roommate (Ruby Modine).

In fact, unlike most of the heroines in slasher flicks, Tree is a pretty unpleasant person. And she’s not that innocent. So I’ll give a bit of credit to screenwriter Scott Lobdell for changing that up, even if it makes her a smidge tougher to root for. When Tree goes out for another night of frivolity, she’s stalked and stabbed by a figure donning the mask of the university’s mascot.

And then… she wakes up on her birthday again nursing a hangover in Carter’s dorm room. Unlike Bill Murray rising to the sounds of Sonny and Cher, she repeats her day less than 20 times as she tries to figure out who’s knocking her off. Along the way, we learn some of the root causes of her unpleasantness. She’s mourning the loss of her mom for one. That death factors into the mix.

Happy Death Day has a sense of humor, which is often a good thing. Groundhog Day is mentioned as it would seem foolish not to (the title has become synonymous with anything repeating itself). Rothe is convincing as the bratty coed. Director Christopher B. Landon employs a handful of effective jump scares. The 90 minute runtime is a wise choice as the concept may not be able to sustain much more.

This is an easy and brisk watch. The PG-13 rating decision is a curious one and this may have been better served with more of the gore and aforementioned frivolity actually on display. Happy Death Day probably won’t stick in your memory for long, but it’s not a complete disruption of your time.

**1/2 (out of four)

Insidious: The Last Key Box Office Prediction

The first new wide release of 2018 is out next Friday when Insidious: The Last Key enters theaters. This is the fourth chapter in the franchise that began in 2011. Like Chapter 3, it’s a prequel to the events of the first two. In other words, no Patrick Wilson or Rose Byrne (the stars of the originals). James Wan, director and 1 and 2, produces with Adam Robitel behind the camera. Leigh Whannell, who’s served as writer for all of them, costars along with Lin Shaye, Angus Sampson, Josh Stewart, and Bruce Davison.

One factor that could assist The Last Key is the absence of horror flicks in the marketplace at the moment. That said, this franchise has been losing its luster. The 2011 original debuted to $13 million but legged out very nicely for its genre with an eventual $54 million gross. The 2013 sequel was the pinnacle with a terrific $40 million opening weekend and $83 million total tally. Chapter 3 in 2015 premiered to $22 million, but ended up as the lowest earner of the series with $52 million. 

I don’t see a compelling reason why part 4 will rebound. For comparison sake, I could see this performing similarly to 2014’s Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which opened in the first weekend of January to just over $18 million. Like this, that was an entry in a franchise whose steam had dissipated. That number seems to be where Key fits best.

Insidious: The Last Key opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million

 

Oscar Watch: Will Get Out Get In?

Way back on January 29th of this year, I wrote my Oscar Watch post for Jordan Peele’s Get Out, which had just premiered at the Sundance Film Festival nearly a month before its opening.

At the time, I wrote: “The chances of this getting into the Best Picture convo is unlikely. However, depending on level of competition, it could be in the mix for Peele’s Original Screenplay if voters remember it nearly a year after its February 24th domestic debut.”

Of course, since then, Get Out became a box office phenomenon, taking in $175 million domestically. Furthermore, it became a water cooler picture with its focus on racial themes that have often dominated the news.

From late January until this Monday, I have yet to put Get Out in my predicted nine films to be named for Best Picture at the Oscars. However, recent precursor action has done nothing except up its chances.

The National Board of Review named it among their 10 best movies of 2017. Mr. Peele was also honored with Best Directorial Debut. The Critics Choice Awards named their nominees this week and Get Out was among six Picture nominees and Peele made the cut for seven nominated directors. The Washington D.C. Film Critics Association nominated it for Picture, Director, and Actor (Daniel Kaluuya).

So where does Get Out stand now 10 months following my original post? Well, the chances of it getting into the Best Picture convo isn’t unlikely… it’s here. There’s a very good chance that I’ll be predicting its inclusion into Best Picture when I update my Oscar predictions this Monday. Peele wasn’t even in my top 10 listed possibilities for his direction three days ago and he most certainly will be now. Kaluuya has yet to be named in my top ten possibles for Actor. That should change. That said, I still see a nomination for him as unlikely.

Stay tuned on Monday and my Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Jigsaw Box Office Prediction

For seven years in gruesome clockwork fashion every October, the Saw franchise unleashed a new entry that began in 2004 and ended in 2010. After seven years of dormancy, it’s back next weekend with Jigsaw. The Lionsgate release comes from directors Michael and Peter Spierig with Tobin Bell returning as the title character and a cast of relative unknowns.

In 2004, the first Saw pic impressed critics and audiences alike and quickly turned into a sleeper hit. Sequels II-V all subsequently posted low 30s openings before installment VI stopped the gravy train with a $14.1 million debut and $27 million overall gross (all series lows). The seventh pic, Saw 3D in 2010, bounced back a bit with a $22 million debut and $45 million total.

After such a lengthy break, will sequelitis sink in? The answer is probably yes. We have seen these significant layoffs in the genre hurt titles such as Scream 4 and Blair Witch. Additionally, the teens that frequent these pics may not have as much familiarity with the franchise due to the hiatus.

I’ll predict Jigsaw barely manages to avoid a series low premiere with a debut in the $14-$16 million range.

Jigsaw opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million

For my Suburbicon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/suburbicon-box-office-prediction/

For my Thank You for Your Service prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/thank-you-for-your-service-box-office-prediction/

Happy Death Day Box Office Prediction

Timing is sometimes everything at the box office and that factor could boost Happy Death Day to a lively opening. The pic is essentially a horror version of Groundhog Day with a woman waking on the same day that happens to be the date of her demise. Christopher B. Landon, who last made Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, directs with a cast made up of relative unknowns including Jessica Rothe and Israel Broussard.

Death comes from Blumhouse Productions, which specializes in low-budget genre flicks. 2017 has been a very happy year for the studio, with fright pic breakouts Split and Get Out. The budget is reportedly just a teeny $5 million. Regarding its release date, it has the benefit of premiering on a Friday the 13th in October (a good month for the genre). It should also help that It is finally slowing down at multiplexes, so genre enthusiasts may be ready for another horror fix.

High teens to possibly low 20s seems reachable here.

Happy Death Day opening weekend prediction: $20.6 million

For my The Foreigner prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/the-foreigner-box-office-prediction/

For my Marshall prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/marshall-box-office-prediction/