The Conjuring 2 Box Office Prediction

Three summers ago, The Conjuring became one of the most highly regarded horror titles in recent years with critics and audiences alike. Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga return as real life paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren and this inevitable sequel focuses on one of their most famous cases circa London in the late 1970s. James Wan, who directed the original as well as the first two Insidious flicks and last year’s Furious 7, is back behind the camera. His history with horror sequels is pretty great. Insidious made $13 million in its premiere. The sequel made $40 million.

The first entry conjured up a fantastic $41 million opening and topped out at $137M domestically. Warner Bros. would love a repeat performance and they may well get one. Even the critically derided Conjuring spin-off Annabelle took in a robust $37 million for its start. One potential stumbling block: competition is a little more fierce this time around with Now You See Me 2 (another sequel to a sleeper summer 2013 blockbuster) and Warcraft (which will be going for many of the same moviegoers) opening directly against it.

That said, I believe the goodwill left over from the first will get this in the same range of its predecessor for a frighteningly solid start.

The Conjuring 2 opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million

For my Now You See Me 2 prediction, click here:

Now You See Me 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Warcraft prediction, click here:

Warcraft Box Office Prediction

The Darkness Box Office Prediction

Blumhouse Productions specializes in low-budget horror flicks and they’ve got once teed up for early summer with The Darkness, out next weekend. Kevin Bacon and Radha Mitchell star in a tale of a Grand Canyon vacation bringing back a supernatural being. David Mazouz, Matt Walsh, and Jennifer Morrison costar. Greg McLean, who directed Wolf Creek, is behind the camera.

The studio has seen their share of genre successes, including the Paranormal Activity, Sinister, Insidious, and Purge franchises. There’s also been some relative disappointments, such as Dark Skies, Oculus, The Gallows, and The Green Inferno. 

The Darkness doesn’t seem to have much buzz going for it and appears unlikely to light up the box office. I’ll predict this doesn’t reach double digits.

The Darkness opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Money Monster prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/04/money-monster-box-office-prediction/

 

The Other Side of the Door Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s note (Friday, February 26) – due to announced screen count of only about 500, I’m revising my original prediction of $4.1 million to just $2.1 million

British supernatural horror flick The Other Side of the Door opens next weekend and will try to bring in genre fans. Other may find that door closed, as this low budget entry from director Johannes Roberts (who’s helmed a number of scare pics you’ve likely never heard of) seems to be gaining little traction stateside. Sarah Wayne Callies from TV’s “The Walking Dead” and Jeremy Sisto star.

Early reviews have been weak and this probably will be lucky to gross half of what January’s The Boy accomplished with $10.7 million. I’ll say it doesn’t and this should be streaming on VOD quite soon.

The Other Side of the Door opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million

For my Zootopia prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/zootopia-box-office-prediction/

For my London Has Fallen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/london-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

For my Whiskey Tango Foxtrot prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

The Witch Box Office Prediction

When it premiered last year at the Sundance Film Festival, horror pic The Witch received mostly raves (it sits at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes… frighteningly good for that genre). We’ll see how that translates to box office dollars when it opens wide next weekend.

The 17th Century set tale of witchcraft features a cast of relative unknowns and comes from first time director Robert Eggers, who also wrote this critically acclaimed effort. The film has received a rather modest marketing push and anything above double digits would be quite an accomplishment.

Considering its tiny reported $1 million budget, however, A24 Films is poised to see a tidy return on their investment. The Witch should earn anywhere from $4-8 million and I’ll go in the middle range of that spectrum.

The Witch opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million

For my Risen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/risen-box-office-prediction/

For my Race prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/race-box-office-prediction/

The Boy Box Office Prediction

The British set supernatural horror pic The Boy debuts next weekend, attempting to scare up some business for STX Entertainment. Directed by The Devil Inside maker William Brent Bell, this focuses on a creepy doll wreaking havoc on the nanny tasked to care for it (Lauren Cohan). Rupert Evans costars.

Trailers and TV spots for The Boy are a little bit creepy, but I’m not sure how much that will translate to box office dollars. Just last weekend, another horror title The Forest debuted to a respectable $13 million and it seems to me that this could premiere to around that number.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this flops and gets under double digits, but I’ll estimate that The Boy is able to reach close to those Forest grosses.

The Boy opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million

For my Dirty Grandpa prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/14/dirty-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

For my The 5th Wave prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/14/the-5th-wave-box-office-prediction/

The Visit Movie Review

M. Night Shyamalan burst onto the film scene with a trilogy of highly effective pictures that had critics and audiences alike cheering – The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, and Signs. There were comparisons to Hitchcock and Spielberg. The acclaim was earned. With 2004’s The Village, while still a hit, crowds and those like me who write about the medium began to tire of the shocking twist endings and stilted dialogue that populate his efforts (I actually dug The Village quite a bit). Two years later, with Lady in the Water, his fans had tuned out and it was to understand why with that bizarre picture (it’s a disappointment not without some merits in my estimate). 2008’s The Happening was where a new level of low came with the director. It was the first one to me that truly encapsulated the bad M. Night with very little of the good. Worse yet, it was boring.

His return to the genre that made him beloved and also scorned is The Visit. It takes the common occurrence of visiting the grandparents for a week to some serious extremes. There is laughable dialogue that I’m firmly convinced its writer/director wants us to be chuckling at. There are also some genuinely “boo” suspenseful moments. And in what we’ve come to also suspect from its maker, there are decisions with character traits that are just baffling. Some of the other lines intended for comedy fall incredibly flat. The teenage characters don’t sound like teenagers when they speak. And Shyamalan seems to almost be thumbing his nose at the audience with the choice to shoot in found footage form, which has become horror’s most overused cliche in recent times.

The Visit takes a teenage sister (Deanna Dunagan) who loves to shoot her video camera (hence our well worn found footage) and her younger brother (Peter McRobbie) to grandma and grandpa’s remote Pennsylvania home for a week. The catch? They’ve never met them. Their single mom (Kathryn Hahn) had a fall out with them years ago and is reluctant to let her kids spend time there. This leads to the other catch: Grandma (Olivia DeJonge) and Grandpa (Ed Oxenbould) might just be completely bonkers. It starts out somewhat slowly (per usual in this director’s way): creepy games of hide and seek turn to the Grandma’s night terrors or “sun downing” (which would’ve been a cooler title) to… well, let’s just say adult diapers are involved.

There’s the patented Night twist that you’ll see coming, I suspect. Yet that’s not really the point here. With The Visit, Shyamalan seems to be parodying the type of picture he’s become famous and infamous for. And there’s no doubt that some of this worked for me and did indeed produce a knowing smile and raised arm hair from time to time. There’s also no doubt that I found a lot of The Visit to be just way too self-aware and poorly written. Just because it might be sending up found footage doesn’t make it any less cheap looking and, truth be told, we’ve seen it used more effectively. That precocious younger brother fancies himself a rapper and it’s perhaps even more grating than you might be imagining. Shyamalan directed one child actor to an Oscar nomination with his breakout, but the adolescent youngsters here are serviceable at best and horrifying when hip hop is brought into it. It’s DeJonge who brings the creepy goods and those arm hair moments are almost solely due to her.

We have witnessed this filmmaker give us examples of horror/suspense that are first rate and low rate. The Visit, with its tongue in cheek, is written in a manner that’s just as bizarre as the movie’s hosts. There were times I felt like I was right there with what Night was trying to accomplish with the so bad it’s good vibe and others where I felt baffled. It belongs nowhere near what Shyamalan has accomplished early in his career nor in the basement with The Happening (or his later sci efforts The Last Airbender and After Earth). My best compliment for this all over the place experience? This particular happening isn’t boring.

**1/2 (out of four)

Goodnight Mommy Movie Review

The Austrian horror pic Goodnight Mommy gained some fairly significant attention stateside due to its hauntingly effective and hair raising trailer. The trailer is a work of art. The film itself? Well, it’s not without its merits for genre lovers. And it isn’t without its flaws.

Mommy takes place almost entirely at a remote lake house in Austria where the “Mommy” (Susanne Wuest) has just returned back after cosmetic surgery to her face. This leaves her with heavy bandages around her dome that are quite creepy. She is mother to twin 10 year old boys (real life twins Elias and Lukas Schwarz). Upon her return from her mysterious operation, they immediately notice that something seems off with her. She’s more temperamental. It gets to the point where the boys become convinced that Mommy is not Mommy at all and this sets a course from some disturbing set pieces and seriously questionable parenting.

Horror aficionados will likely eat up the sequences involving giant roaches and gut churning uses for Super Glue. However, this just applies to the art house crowd. Goodnight Mommy is by no means mainstream and I suspect many a casual genre fan will be let down. For starters, this is not to be judged by its considerably better trailer. Second, while the arty crowd may not mind the “twist” involved that can perhaps purposely be seen from a mile away, it hindered the process for me.

It’s a nice touch having real life twins play the scared youngsters here and the Schwarz brothers work well together. Wuest capably balances her complex role which alternates between being terrifying and being terrified. The production design with its off kilter and dispassionate home setting is first rate.

All in all, a jaw dropping moment here and there in Goodnight Mommy can’t really overcome the general obviousness of it all. I’ll give directors Veronika Franz and Severin Fiala credit for showing some promise to build on, but this movie will be remembered best for its magnificent preview watched by millions on YouTube and not the final product.

**1/2 (out of four)

Krampus Box Office Prediction

A whole different kind of Christmas comedy hits theaters next weekend when Krampus debuts. This ain’t Love the Coopers, folks. Michael Dougherty, known best for his screenplays for superhero pics X2 and Superman Returns, is behind the camera. This isn’t his first holiday themed horror comedy though. He made the Halloween centric cult favorite Trick r Treat years ago.

Krampus focuses on what may be a very bad Santa with a cast featuring Adam Scott, Toni Collette, and David Koechner. The trailers do inspire some hope. Having said that, the first week of December is not fertile ground for new releases as audiences are mostly preoccupied with Thanksgiving leftovers. Additionally, while movie geeks may be looking forward to this, general audiences will probably stay away.

I believe Krampus will be lucky to reach double digits and will predict that it won’t.

Krampus opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension Box Office Prediction

It’s being billed as the final installment in a successful franchise that began in 2009 and this coming Friday marks the sixth entry in the Paranormal Activity series with The Ghost Dimension. Due to a number of factors, it’s probable that this franchise “finale” may go out with a bit of a whimper.

First off, the found footage horror pic furthers along a series of films that began losing its box office potency with its last effort, The Marked Ones. It opened in January of 2014 to $18.3 million on its way to a meager $32M domestic gross. For comparison sake, 2010’s Paranormal Activity 2 made $40 million out of the gate and ended up at $84M stateside. The third edition was the high point with a $52 million debut and $104M overall haul. The fourth Activity is when things started to decline with a $29 million opening and $53M overall take.

Perhaps even more importantly, The Ghost Dimension is rolling out on far less screens than its predecessors due to Paramount’s decision to release the pic only 17 days after its theatrical release. Many cinema chains have balked at that decision and simply chosen against allowing Dimension to play on their screens. It’s slated to be on about 1400 screens (the fifth entry debuted on over 2800).

Due to those factors, I’m predicting the ceiling for Dimension is low double digits and I’ll actually say it falls just short of that mark.

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

The Green Inferno Box Office Prediction

Known mostly for his one two punch of Hostel pics a few years ago, director Eli Roth is back with The Green Inferno, out Friday. The horror title plants a group of student activists in the Amazon where they’re kidnapped and terror ensues. There are no big names among the cast and it comes with a meager $6 million budget.

The small budget should be a silver lining as I don’t expect big results for this. Inferno was originally scheduled to be released a year ago but financial difficulties with its studio held it back. The marketing campaign hasn’t been too strong and lots of horror fans may have gotten their current fill with The Visit.

Debuting on a relatively small 1500 approximate screens, I believe The Green Inferno will flame out and be ready for VOD quite soon.

The Green Inferno opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million

For my Hotel Transylvania 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/18/hotel-transylvania-2-box-office-prediction/

For my The Intern prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/19/the-intern-box-office-prediction/