Well, folks, it’s the third four-day holiday box office frame in four weekends as MLK Day is Monday and there’s a total of six (yes six) pictures debuting or rolling out in wide release. They are: the Peter Berg directed Boston Marathon dramatic thriller Patriots Day, Ben Affleck’s gangster pic Live by Night, Jamie Foxx action flick Sleepless, inexplicably huge budget and long delayed family pic Monster Trucks, horror entry The Bye Bye Man, and Martin Scorsese’s historical epic Silence. You can experience my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
With this infusion of new product invading the marketplace, it could create a lot of intrigue as to what comes out on top. The four-day frame should mean rather small drops for returnees (Underworld could be the exception) and in some cases, we could see increases.
Hidden Figures got off to a terrific start in wide release. With an A+ Cinemascore grade and rapturous word of mouth, I see a slight increase for it that might be enough to keep it #1, ever so slightly ahead of Patriots Day. I believe that it will have the highest debut of the newbies.
My estimates put Live by Night in sixth with a disappointing debut with Sing and Rogue One in third and fourth. Other newcomers (Sleepless, Trucks, Bye Bye) will be in the 7-8-9 spots as I believe La La Land will post a fifth place showing. This is due to its huge success at the Golden Globes and an expected significant increase in screens next weekend.
Finally, Silence is only debuting on 750 screens and I expect it to fall outside of the top ten.
And with that, my top ten predictions for the long and bustling weekend:
1. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing an increase of 6%)
2. Patriots Day
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
3. Sing
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 21%)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 27%)
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing an increase of 36%)
6. LivebyNight
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
7. Sleepless
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
8. Monster Trucks
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
9. The Bye Bye Man
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
10. Underworld: Blood Wars
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (January 6-8)
In a rather surprising result, Hidden Figures dislodged Rogue One from the top spot with a better than expected $22.8 million. This tops my $19.3M projection. As mentioned, its encouraging audience reaction bodes well for this weekend and beyond.
Rogue One slipped to second after three weeks on top with $22 million, under my $28.2M estimate for a total of $477M.
Sing was third with $20.7 million (under my $25.3M prediction) for a $214 overall tally.
Underworld: Blood Wars, the first new 2017 wide release, posted lackluster results in fourth with just $13.6 million (I was higher at $17.6M). All four previous franchise entries had debuted to over $20M.
La La Land rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $12.8M) to bring its gross to $51M.
The rest of the top ten were all holdovers and were as follows:
6. Passengers: $8.8 million ($80M total). My prediction: $9 million
7. Why Him?: $6.9 million ($48M total). My prediction: $6 million
8. Moana: $6.3 million ($225M total). My prediction: $6.6 million.
9. Fences: $4.8 million ($40M total). My prediction: $6.7 million.
10. Assassin’s Creed: $4.1 million ($49M total). My prediction: $4.2M.
Finally, the critically acclaimed A Monster Calls was ignored by audiences and made just $2 million out of the gate, lower than my $3.4M forecast.
This Sunday evening, the Golden Globes (perhaps the most significant Oscar precursor) airs with Jimmy Fallon hosting. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Globes divide both Picture and the Lead Acting races in two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy.
Here’s how I have each race playing out with the winners predicted. As a side note, I decided to not do my weekly Oscar predictions yesterday and will have an updated post on Thursday next week!
With that, let’s get to the races…
Best Drama
The Nominees: Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight
Analysis: Not an easy prediction as this will probably boil down to Moonlight and Manchester, with both Hacksaw and Lion being potential spoilers (Water is only pic I see as having no shot). The winner of this category will likely vault into a two-way race with La La Land as to what comes out on top at Oscar time.
Best Musical/Comedy
The Nominees: 20th Century Women, Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, La La Land, Sing Street
Todd’s Prediction: La La Land
Analysis: It would be pretty shocking if Damien Chazelle’s ode to Hollywood musicals didn’t win here. I suppose perhaps Jenkins has a dark horse shot, but this is the easiest pick of the bunch to make.
Best Director
The Nominees: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Longergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Todd’s Prediction: Damien Chazelle
Analysis: Jenkins has racked up a slew of precursors and a win for Gibson would be seen as completing a remarkable comeback after multiple personal issues. However, at the end of the day, I believe the La La love will extend to its director.
Best Actor (Drama)
The Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences).
Todd’s Prediction: Casey Affleck
Analysis: Like the Oscar race, this looks to be between Affleck and Washington. I’ll give the former the slight edge as he’s won more precursors and Manchester itself was nominated for Picture, whereas Fences was not.
Analysis: While I wouldn’t totally rule out an Adams or Huppert win, Portman has the edge in her acclaimed role of Mrs. Kennedy.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
The Nominees: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Jonah Hill (War Dogs), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Todd’s Prediction: Hugh Grant
Analysis: Conventional wisdom would point to a Gosling win, but I believe the Hollywood Foreign Press will provide a bit of an upset here and honor Grant. Also – don’t be too shocked if Reynolds manages to surprise.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
The Nominees: Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply), Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Todd’s Prediction: Emma Stone
Analysis: Bening and Streep are long shots, but it would be a rather large upset if Stone didn’t emerge victorious here.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Dev Patel (Lion), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Todd’s Prediction: Mahershala Ali
Analysis: Bridges or Patel are feasible, but Ali has received the bulk of precursor awards and I believe that will continue here.
Best Supporing Actress
The Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Todd’s Prediction: Viola Davis
Analysis: Davis is the clear front runner here and at the Oscars. An upset win (possible for any of these actresses other than Spencer) could dispel that notion, but it probably won’t occur.
Best Screenplay
The Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals
Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight
Analysis: La La and Manchester are in the mix here, but this is probably where Barry Jenkins will get his win and not for direction.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Arrival, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight
Todd’s Prediction: La La Land
Analysis: Tough one and it’s not out of the question to envision any of them winning. I’ll just go La La and see what happens.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls, “City of Stars” from La La Land, “Faith” from Sing, “Gold” from Gold, “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
Todd’s Prediction: “City of Stars”
Analysis: There’s some real heavy hitters here: Justin Timberlake, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and Stevie Wonder with nominations. Yet I think the HFPA honors La La once again.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, Sing, Zootopia
Todd’s Prediction: Zootopia
Analysis: Kubo has a shot and you can never dismiss Disney with Moana. However, there’s another acclaimed Mouse Factory title in the mix and I believe Zootopia gets in.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: Divines, Elle, Neruda, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann
Todd’s Prediction: Toni Erdmann
Analysis: Elle could absolutely win here (and perhaps The Salesman), but I’ll go with Academy favorite Erdmann.
And that does it, folks! I’ll have a post up Sunday night letting you know how well (or poorly) I did. Until then…
The first full weekend of the new year kicks off with three pictures opening wide: Oscar hopeful HiddenFigures, sci-fi franchise entry Underworld: BloodWars, and sci-fi drama AMonsterCalls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio of newcomers here:
Even with the infusion of fresh product, I do not anticipate the two-week old first and second place combo of RogueOne and Sing to change. That said, I do believe Figures stands the best chance at outperforming my estimate.
As for BloodWars, I expect it may be the first Underworld pic of the five to open under $20 million and that puts it in fourth.
LaLaLand is getting a large theater expansion and should hit the top five with Passengers in sixth. The rest of the top ten could be rather tightly clustered with Monster likelyoutsideofthetopten. And with that, a top ten predictions for the weekend:
1. RogueOne: AStarWarsStory
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Sing
Predicted Gross: $25.3 million
3. HiddenFigures
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million
4. Underworld: BloodWars
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
6. Passengers
Predicted Gross: $9 million
7. Fences
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
8. Moana
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
9. WhyHim?
Predicted Gross: $6 million
10. Assassin’s Creed
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (December 30-January 2)
The four-day New Years weekend gave RogueOne its third weekend atop the charts, though it didn’t quite match my expectations. The spin-off took in $65.5 million (under my generous $79.9M forecast) for a still eye-popping $440M total.
Sing was second with $57.2 million, in line with my $56.6M projection for a two-week $180M take.
Passengers was third at $21 million, above my $18.3M prediction for a $66M overall gross.
Moana made $15.1 million for fourth place (higher than my $12.7M prognosis). It’s made $214M.
Rounding out the top five was WhyHim? with $13.1 million, under my $16.1M estimate for a $37M tally.
In sixth, Fences also made $13.1 million (above my $9.8M prediction) for a $32M total.
Oscar favorite LaLaLand expanded its theater count and earned a scorching $12.5 million for seventh (I said $10M). It’s danced to $37M thus far.
Eighth place: Assassin’sCreed with $11.3 million, in range with my $12.2M take for a $42M gross.
The pictures in ninth and tenth were ones I incorrectly had outside my predicted top 10. FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem made $5.6 million (overall earnings: $225M) and ManchesterbytheSea took in $5.4 million ($29M total).
CollateralBeauty was 11th with $5.4 million (I said $5.2M) for a weak $27M gross. OfficeChristmasParty was 12th with $4.5 million (I was a touch higher at $5.8M) for a total of $52M.
We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.
Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Fences (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Silence (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
13. Sully (PR: 12)
14. Jackie (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 9)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Zootopia (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eye in the Sky
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
3. 13th (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 5)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
10. Weiner (PR: 9)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)
7. Paradise (PR: 8)
8. Tanna (PR: 7)
9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 4)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 8)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)
7. Lion (PR: 5)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
9. Sully (PR: 7)
10. Jackie (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Deadpool (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. The BFG (PR: 9)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Moana
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)
4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)
7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 4)
5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Deadpool
Doctor Strange
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: 7)
7. Allied (PR: 8)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
10. Deadpool (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. The BFG (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)
That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Moonlight, Arrival
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.
That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!
An Oscar hopeful expands to wide release next Friday when Hidden Figures rolls out across the country. The true tale of three women (Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae) who were instrumental in the NASA space program in the 1960s has garnered critical praise (92% on Rotten Tomatoes) and is said to be quite the crowd pleaser. Theodore Melfi directs with Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, Jim Parsons, and Mahershala Ali in the supporting cast.
Over the Christmas weekend, Figures figured an impressive $838,000 gross on just 25 screens. That’s a strong $33K per screen average. The pic stands a decent shot at a Best Picture nomination come Oscar announcement time and Octavia Spencer could also receive a Supporting Actress nod.
As I see it, the chances for this to over perform are mathematically greater than the alternative. 20th Century Fox is hoping to attract a sizable female and African American audience and they’ll likely be successful. I believe Figures could even outdo Underworld: Blood Wars, which opens the same day. I’ve got that one pegged at $17.6M. I’ll put this one over it for what would be a #2 debut.
Hidden Figures opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million
For my Underworld: Blood Wars prediction, click here:
We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…
Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 6)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
6. Fences (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Jackie (PR: 12)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, Gold
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Loving (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Trolls
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)
2. 13th (PR: 1)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
5. Gleason (PR: 4)
Other Possibilties
6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 7)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 3)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)
9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Neruda
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
Julieta
Ma’Rosa
The Ardennes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 5)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
8. Silence (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 3)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
4. Deadpool (PR: 5)
5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
Love & Friendship
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 7)
3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
4. Lion (PR: 2)
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Jackie (PR: 3)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana (PR: 4)
9. The BFG (PR: 10)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)
4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)
8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)
9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 5)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Allied
Love & Friendship
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. La La Land (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Allied
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
5. Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 7)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
10. Deadpool (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 6)
7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
A Monster Calls
That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Lion
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Silence
4 Nominations
Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins
2 Nominations
Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book
1 Nomination
Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!
Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.
The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart.
Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.
Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Fences (PR: 5)
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 9)
12. Jackie (PR: 11)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Live by Night (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Silence
Liam Neeson, Silence
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 8)
8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I, DanielBlake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay
Patriots Day
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Fences (PR: 1)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. HacksawRidge (PR: 7)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. Sully (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Indignation
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)
3. Moana (PR: 2)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)
9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th (PR: 1)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 3)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)
7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)
9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sharon Jones
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. Elle (PR: 4)
3. The Salesman (PR: 6)
4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Neruda (PR: 10)
7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)
8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)
10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Man Called Ove
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 7)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. Live by Night (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 6)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 4)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Silence (PR: 5)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 4)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fences (PR: 10)
10. Jackie (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Live by Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)
5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
The BFG
Hidden Figures
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moana (PR: 5)
5. NocturnalAnimals (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)
5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)
9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Live by Night (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Allied (PR: 10)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
4. Sully (PR: 9)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Silence
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 4)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. Arrival (PR: 6)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 7)
7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Captain America: Civil War
That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Lion
4 Nominations
Fences
3 Nominations
Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals
1 Nomination
Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…
Well, the Golden Globe nominations are out and there are some genuine surprises to be had.
Not surprising? Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (the current front runner in the Oscar Best Picture derby) leading all nominees with seven with Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight close behind with six.
Surprising? A total shut-out for Martin Scorsese’s Silence and a better than expected showing for Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.
All in all, my performance guessing the nominees was pretty weak. 64% total in the ten major categories predicted.
Let’s break them down one by one, shall we?
Best Picture (Drama)
My Performance 2/5
Analysis: Ouch. This race threw me for a loop as only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were nominated among my five. The three that weren’t: the aforementioned Silence, Arrival, and Fences. In their place: Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, Garth Davis’s Lion, and David Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water. Truthfully, none of their inclusions are entirely surprising. Having said that, if I thought I’d get three picks wrong, I probably would have thought Pablo Larrain’s Jackie would get in. This race now appears to be between Manchester and Moonlight.
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
Well… a little better. The three I correctly predicted were La La Land, Florence Foster Jenkins, and 20th Century Women. Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply and The Lobster didn’t make it in in favor of Deadpool (!) and Sing Street. Bottom line here? La La is going to win this category.
Best Director
My Performance: 3/5
Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan were got in as I said they would, but Martin Scorsese and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) did not. In their place are Mel Gibson for Hacksaw and the rather surprising inclusion of Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, especially considering the movie wasn’t nominated in Drama.
Best Actor (Drama)
My Performance: 4/5
The only incorrect estimate here is that Viggo Mortensen got in for Captain Fantastic instead of Tom Hanks for Sully. Ironically, I did predict Viggo would be nominated in Musical/Comedy here (I thought Fantastic would fall under that genre). The other nominees that I did get: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), and Denzel Washington (Fences).
Best Actress (Drama)
My Performance: 5/5
Hey, the one and only race where I went 100%! The nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Natalie Portman (Jackie).
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
To me, the surprise is that the Hollywood Foreign Press didn’t nominate the legendary Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply. As mentioned before, I put Mortensen in here, but he ended up getting nominated for Drama. The three I got right: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), and Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins). The two I didn’t: the pretty shocking nod for Jonah Hill in War Dogs and much deserved love for Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool.
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emma Stone (La La Land), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) were all very easy picks to make and they got in. The other two were tougher. I went with Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship and Susan Sarandon in The Meddler, but it was Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply) and Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen) who made the cut.
Best Supporting Actor
My Performance: 2/5
Ouch again. When it comes to Oscar predictin’, this has been the most unpredictable category of them all and that showed with my GG’s performance here. I correctly named Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel in Lion. My picks of Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Issey Ogata (the totally ignored Silence), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) didn’t come to fruition. Instead, we got the surprise nod for Shannon’s Nocturnal costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson along with Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) and Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins).
Best Supporting Actress
My Performance: 4/5
Correct picks were Viola Davis in Fences, Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman in Lion, and Michelle Williams for Manchester. It was Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures that I didn’t get (I said Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women instead). Spencer’s inclusion is a small surprise, as some of the Oscar chatter has had Janelle Monae more likely to get in for Figures than her costar.
Best Screenplay
My Performance: 3/5
La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight are in as predicted. No love for Arrival and Silence. In their place? Hell or High Water and Nocturnal Animals.
And there you have it! I’ll have a post up with final predictions on the winners shortly before Jimmy Fallon hosts the proceedings in January…
Reviews are out today for HiddenFigures and its Oscar chances are becoming (somewhat) more clear. From Theodore Melfi, who last directed Bill Murray to acclaim in St. Vincent, the pic focuses on three African American women (Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae) who were instrumental in the space flights of the 1960s. Other costars include Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, and Jim Parsons.
The most common two words that writers are using for Figures must be music to 20th Century Fox’s ears: crowd pleaser. Early tallies put it at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, though some of the reviews aren’t exactly raves. Still, with audiences possibly responding positively to it, it stands a real shot at a Best Picture nod. It could fit a similar slot to both 2009’s TheBlindSide and 2011’s TheHelp. Melfi seems unlikely to make the cut in the Director race.
Acting categories could provide possibilities in both Supporting races. Henson will be campaigned for in Lead Actress and as has been discussed at length on this blog, that’s an extremely crowded category and she looks unlikely to get in. As for Supporting Actress, word is that Monae stands a better shot than Spencer for recognition. In Supporting Actor, Costner is getting good ink and could factor into a very uncertain race at press time. Figures also could receive an Adapted Screenplay nomination.
This Thursday, I’ll have my predictions updated and it will provide greater guidance on how Hidden figures into it all.
Happy Friday y’all! Readers of my blog are aware that every Thursday for a few weeks now, I’ve been giving you my projections in the eight biggest races for the Academy Awards. Those categories are Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. You can peruse yesterday’s post here if you didn’t catch it:
What about the other categories, though? Well fear not because today is the first day I’m giving you my take on them as well. I’m leaving out (and will continue to leave out) Documentary Short Subject and the short film races in animated and live-action. Why? I don’t know anything about them and it’d be simple guesswork to predict them.
That said, we’ve got a bunch of other races to cover. As I’ve done with the others, I’ll give my 5 predicted nominees and list five other strong possibilities. Let’s get to it!
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. Finding Dory
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince
7. April and the Extraordinary World
8. My Life as a Zucchini
9. Sausage Party
10. Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th
2. O.J.: Made in America
3. Gleason
4. Life, Animated
5. I Am Not Your Negro
Other Possibilities
6. The Eagle Huntress
7. Cameraperson
8. Fire at Sea
9. Miss Sharon Jones
10. The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann
2. Fire at Sea
3. Land of Mine
4. Elle
5. A Man Called Ove
Other Possibilities
6. The Salesman
7. Ma’Rosa
8. The Ardennes
9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
10. Neruda
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. The Jungle Book
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night
7. Lion
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
10. Jackie
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Love and Friendship
4. Live by Night
5. Silence
Other Possibilities
6. Allied
7. Rules Don’t Apply
8. Florence Foster Jenkins
9. Fences
10. Hidden Figures
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Moonlight
4. Lion
5. Hacksaw Ridge
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Jackie
8. Hell or High Water
9. Live by Night
10. Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (only three nominees)
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Other Possibilities
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. The BFG
6. Hidden Figures
7. Star Trek Beyond
8. Suicide Squad
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Silence
Best Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Jackie
5. Moana
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book
7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
8. Hidden Figures
9. Hacksaw Ridge
10. Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land
4. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
5. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls
7. “A Letter to the Free” from 13th
8. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
9. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply
10. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Jackie
4. Live by Night
5. Arrival
Other Possibilities
6. Love and Friendship
7. Rules Don’t Apply
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
10. Allied
Best Sound Editing
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. The Jungle Book
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Patriots Day
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Silence
8. Deepwater Horizon
9. Sully
10. Passengers
Best Sound Mixing
1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Patriots Day
4. Sully
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book
7. Deepwater Horizon
8. Arrival
9. Passengers
10. Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. A Monster Calls
5. Passengers
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. The BFG
8. Star Trek Beyond
9. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
10. Captain America: Civil War
**And that leaves the following breakdown for all movies in all categories getting the following number of nominations (this will be updated every week):
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Silence
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Arrival, Fences, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
5 Nominations
Jackie
4 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, The Jungle Book, Loving, Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Live by Night, Patriots Day, Sully, 20th Century Women
1 Nomination
13th, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Finding Dory, Fire at Sea, Gleason, Hell or High Water, I Am Not Your Negro, Kubo and the Two Strings, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, Love & Friendship, A Man Called Ove, A Monster Calls, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, Passengers, Po, The Red Turtle, Toni Erdmann, Zootopia
Next Thursday – I’ll have my predictions updated in all categories! Until then…
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