President’s Day weekend has arrived at the box office with three new titles debuting over the four-day holiday frame: Matt Damon’s action epic The Great Wall, Ice Cube/Charlie Day comedy Fist Fight, and Gore Verbinski’s horror thriller A Cure for Wellness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
None of the trio is likely to dislodge the Caped Crusader and his Lego friends from the top perch in its second weekend. In fact, this particular February weekend often sees holdovers experience smallish declines. The Lego Movie dipped just 9% in the 2014 PD weekend and I expect the same type of minor dip for its spin-off.
With the #1 film safely (I think) determined, the rest of the top five is much more unpredictable. Looking over the past few President’s Day weekends, newbies opening in the mid to high 20s is commonplace. This applied to titles such as Unknown, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, About Last Night, and Robocop. I foresee both Wall and Fight falling in this range for a photo finish for #2.
Then there’s Fifty Shades Darker and John Wick: Chapter 2, both in their sophomore weekends. I don’t see Darker having a 74% drop like its predecessor Fifty Shades of Grey experienced (it had a much bigger opening for one thing). However, I could see it losing half its audience easily as grosses for this franchise are front loaded. Wick may lose less than a third of its debut crowd for a solid hold. And that could create another photo finish between these sequels.
This leaves A Cure for Wellness. Strong reviews may have helped this, but it’s not getting them and I’m diagnosing just a low double digits premiere for a probable sixth place showing.
And with that, my top 6 projections for this busy weekend:
1. The Lego Batman Movie
Predicted Gross: $49.4 million (representing a drop of 6%)
2. The Great Wall
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
3. Fist Fight
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million
4. John Wick: Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)
5. Fifty Shades Darker
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
6. A Cure for Wellness
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Box Office Results (February 10-12)
The Lego Batman Movie took the top spot, though not with as much ease as many thought it would. The critically acclaimed animated spin-off grossed $53 million, a decent number but not near the $69M made by The Lego Movie in its inaugural weekend and under my $65.8M projection. That said, as mentioned above, its drop this weekend should be slight.
Fifty Shades Darker opened in second at $46.6 million, in line with my $44.8M estimate. This is far from the $85 million achieved two years back by Fifty Shades of Grey, but it’s actually above some of the predictions from prognosticators in the past week or so.
John Wick: Chapter 2 capitalized on the goodwill left over from the 2014 original with a strong $30.4 million, more than doubling the $14M earned by its predecessor two and a half years back. It easily eclipsed my $20.7M estimate.
Holdovers rounded out the top five with Split dropping to fourth at $9.5 million (I said $8.2M) for a $112M total and Hidden Figures at fifth with $8 million (I said $6.9M) for a $131M overall haul.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Good Sunday all! 15 days from today, the Oscars will air and for the next three Sundays, I’ll be giving you my take on where I see each category standing. This means my winner prediction and each nominee listed in order of likelihood to take their prize.
My final predictions will post on Sunday, February 26 prior to the broadcast the next day. Let’s get to it, shall we?
It’s a bustling weekend of sequels and spin-offs as three new high-profile releases debut: animated spin-off The Lego Batman Movie, risque sequel Fifty Shades Darker, and Keanu Reeves action follow-up John Wick: Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, the trio of newcomers should have no trouble placing 1st-3rd on the charts. Lego is highly likely to come out on top and I’ve got making a bit less than the $69 million earned by The Lego Movie in 2014.
Prognosticators are pegging Fifty Shades Darker to earn about half of the fantastic $85 million made by Fifty Shades of Grey two years ago. That sounds about right.
The original John Wick from 2014 has turned into a cult hit after a decent box office performance and it looks to expand a bit on the $14 million debut of its predecessor.
The newbies should cause M. Night Shyamalan’s Split to fall to fourth place after three weeks at #1. The 5 spot could be a battle between A Dog’s Purpose, Hidden Figures, and Rings, but I’ll give Figuresthe slight edge.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. The Lego Batman Movie
Predicted Gross: $65.8 million
2. Fifty Shades Darker
Predicted Gross: $44.8 million
3. John Wick: Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
4. Split
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 43%
5. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 32%)
Box Office Results (February 3-5)
The Super Bowl weekend is typically a slower one at multiplexes and 2017 was no different. Split managed a three-peat in weekend #3 in the top spot as it grossed $14.4 million. My prediction? $14.4M! Yay! The Shyamalan hit stands at $98 million through the weekend and should pass the century mark today.
Audiences were more interested in Tom Brady’s rings than Rings, which disappointed at second with an unlucky $13 million. I went way higher with $20.3 million. It had been 12 years since the horror franchise was around and ambivalence to it was clearly shown. The pic is likely to experience a large drop in its sophomore frame and plummet right out of the top 5.
A Dog’s Purpose was third with $10.5 million, shy of my $12.5M forecast for a two-week total of $32M.
Hidden Figures was fourth with $10.1 million (in line with $10.7M prognosis) for a $119M overall tally as $150M looks well within its sights.
La La Land rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I said $8.3M) for a $118M haul as it dances its way to probable Oscar glory.
Finally, the oft delayed teenage sci-fi romance The Space Between Us bombed in ninth place with a measly $3.7 million debut compared to my $6.7M estimate.
The first weekend of February brings new titles to the marketplace to compete with holdovers and a football game on Sunday. They are: long gestating horror sequel Rings and sci-fi teen romance The Space Between Us. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, both The Bye Bye Man and Split exceeded their opening weekend expectations (more on the terrific Split earnings below). It’s been a bountiful 2017 thus far for the horror genre and I believe Rings will debut just north of $20M for a first place showing.
The Space Between Us should struggle to reach the top 5 and my mid single digits forecast for it leaves it on the outside. Current #1 and #2 Split and A Dog’s Purpose should slide down a spot with awards hopefuls Hidden Figures and La La Land rounding out the top five.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. Rings
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
2. Split
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)
3. A Dog’s Purpose
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
4. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 24%)
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)
6. The Space Between Us
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
Box Office Results (January 27-29)
If the $40 million opening didn’t convince you, the second weekend of Split solidified director M. Night Shyamalan’s major comeback. The horror thriller took in $25.6 million in its sophomore frame (higher than my $18.5M forecast) to bring its total to $77 million. The century mark is in its sights and it experienced the smallest week 2 decline of any Shyamalan effort since The Sixth Sense.
Despite controversy, A Dog’s Purpose brought in a pleasing $18.2 million for a solid second place showing. This was much more than my $10.3M projection, which I revised down from an original estimate of $17.9M. Should have stuck with my first thought…
Hidden Figures (which won the main SAG prize yesterday) was third with $14 million compared to my $12.8M prediction. The Oscar nominee now stands at $104M.
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter posted a franchise low debut in fourth with just $13.6 million, just below my $14.6M estimate. Look for it to fade fast.
La La Land rounded out the top five with $12.2 million, above my $9.9M guesstimate. Like Figures, it also joined the $100M+ club as it’s made $106M.
xXx: Return of Xander Cage was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.6 million, in line with my $8.9M estimate for a weak tally of $33M.
Sing was seventh with $6.4 million (I said $5.6M) to pad its now $257M take.
Finally, Matthew McConaughey posted a career low wide opening with Gold. It only managed a 10th place debut with $3.4 million (I went higher with $5.4M).
The final major awards ceremony before Oscar takes place tonight on TBS and TNT as the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs. These awards and winners are voted by fellow thespians, so the races are a bit different in the sense that there’s no Best Picture per se. Instead it’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and the five nominated pictures contains one rather glaring omission: LaLaLand, even though it’s the front runner at the Academy Awards.
We do have the other acting races we’re accustomed to, as well as Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. Let’s break each category down one by one with my predicted winners for this evening.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Analysis: The recipient here could solidify its status as Most Likely to Win Best Picture at the Oscars if LaLa doesn’t. I’ll predict the SAG voters give the edge to Barry Jenkins acclaimed drama over Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester, just like the Globes did.
OutstandingPerformancebyaMaleActorinaLeadingRole
Nominees: Casey Affleck (ManchesterbytheSea), Andrew Garfield (HacksawRidge), Ryan Gosling (LaLaLand), Viggo Mortensen (CaptainFantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck
Analysis: The five nominees match five for five with the Academy. Affleck has received the lions share of precursors thus far and I expect that to continue here. Washington is the only other possibility.
Nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (TheGirlontheTrain), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (LaLaLand), Meryl Streep (FlorenceFosterJenkins)
Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman
Analysis: Yes, I’m going for the minor upset here as Stone is the likely front runner. Only the two of them and Streep match the Oscar nods, as SAG honored Adams and Blunt instead of Isabelle Huppert (Elle) and Ruth Negga (Loving).
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (HellorHighWater), Hugh Grant (FlorenceFosterJenkins), Lucas Hedges (ManchesterbytheSea), Dev Patel (Lion)
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Analysis: A win by either Bridges or Patel wouldn’t surprise me, but Ali has picked up a lot of critics prizes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, surprise Globe winner for NocturnalAnimals, isn’t present here.
Analysis: This is a tough one as either of the comic book flicks could win. Still, I’ll go with the only nominated Best Picture at the Oscars. By the way, why Nocturnal is present here baffles me.
And… they’re out! After months of predictions and Oscar Watch posts, the 2016 Oscar nominations were announced this morning. Save for a couple of the technical categories, I must say I’m pretty pleased with my results! Per usual, there were a couple of surprising inclusions and omissions.
Let’s go race by race and see how I did, shall we? I am also including my commentary with each category and, for the first time (!) giving my first predictions on who and what will win…
Best Picture
Todd’s Performance: 9/9 (!)
Analysis: Since the Oscars went to the format where 5-10 Pictures can be nominated, 9 has mostly been the magic number and that held true this time around. There were no surprises here, as evidenced by my perfect score with the biggest race of all. The nominees are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
There are 3 films that stand a chance – La La, Manchester, and Moonlight. Yet there’s no denying that Damien Chazelle’s musical is the front runner, as it tied the record of 14 nominations today along with All About Eve and Titanic.
Best Director
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: There were four easy picks to make and they were all honored: Chazelle (La La), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester), and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival). The fifth slot has consistently been the tricky one in recent weeks and I went with DGA nominee Garth Davis (Lion). The Academy instead brought previous winner Mel Gibson back into their good graces once again for Hacksaw Ridge.
Winner Prediction: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
This one is tougher than Picture. Barry Jenkins has emerged victorious in a number of precursors. Ultimately I’m forecasting that Picture and Director will match in honoring Chazelle’s return to the Hollywood musical.
Best Actor
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: The five performers recognized today have been the most likely to get in for about a month, at least. They are: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw), Ryan Gosling (La La), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), and Denzel Washington (Fences). It played out as such.
Winner Prediction: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Actor is essentially a two man race between Affleck and Denzel, but the Manchester lead has racked up the lions share of other awards show and I feel Oscar will follow.
Best Actress
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Let’s get the four women I got right out of the way: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). No surprises there, but what was a bit startling was the omission of Amy Adams in Arrival. I had her ranked third out of five possibilities. Then – my sixth (Annette Bening, 20th Century Women) and seventh (Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train) place alternate picks didn’t make it in. That slot was filled with #8 – Ruth Negga in Loving. Not a huge shock as Actress has been packed for some time, but I thought Negga getting it would replace either Huppert or Streep. Not so.
Winner Prediction: Emma Stone, La La Land
I could see Stone, Portman, and maybe even Huppert taking the statue, but I’ll give Stone the gold.
Best Supporting Actor
Todd’s Performance 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’ll give myself a hearty pat on the back for this as Supporting Actor was a tough race to wrap your head around this year. The nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals).
Winner Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Ali has won the bulk of precursors and this is the safe pick. That said, this is often a race where upsets happen and I could see Bridges, Patel, and possibly Shannon standing a chance.
Best Supporting Actress
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’ll give myself a softer pat on the back with this one as the five expected nominees held court. They are: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester).
Winner Prediction: Viola Davis, Fences
Of all the acting races, this is the easiest to project as Davis has been the front runner for months and remains so.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: As expected – Arrival, Fences (which some had on the fence), Lion, and Moonlight are in. I had Nocturnal Animals getting a nod, but the writers chose Hidden Figures instead.
Winner Prediction: Moonlight
The Barry Jenkins picture is a heavy, heavy favorite here.
Best Original Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Analysis: I correctly predicted Hell or High Water, La La Land, and Manchester by the Sea. I was a bit surprised to see Captain Fantastic left off, not as much so for dark horse pick I, Daniel Blake. In their place: The Lobster and 20th Century Women.
Winner Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
Kenneth Lonergan’s script is the favorite, but don’t discount a La La sweep factoring in here. Hell or High Water is a potential upset pick.
Best Animated Feature
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: I went with a bit of an upset pick with Pixar’s Finding Dory… and you usually don’t associate this category not including that studio’s work. Instead, The Red Turtle got in along with predicted nominees Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, and Zootopia.
Winner Prediction: Zootopia
Disney is likely to see their blockbuster take the prize, though Kubo could be lurking.
Best Documentary Feature
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, and 13th were correct estimates while Fire at Sea nabbed a nod instead of Cameraperson.
Winner Prediction: I Am Not Your Negro
This is a tough one as O.J. and 13th also stand decent chances.
Best Foreign Language Film
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Tanna got in instead of predicted The King’s Choice. Other nominees: Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, and Toni Erdmann.
Winner Prediction: The Salesman
The safe money could be on German comedy Erdmann, but I’m leaning toward Iranian drama The Salesman. I could switch back before showtime.
Best Cinematography
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: My Nocturnal Animals love bore no fruit again as my first alternate Lion was nominated. Other nominees: Arrival, La La Land, Moonlight, and Silence.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
I’ll go with the probable Best Picture winner, but Moonlight and Arrival are possibilities.
Best Costume Design
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I guess I know my costumes as I correctly predicted Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, and La La Land.
Winner Prediction: Jackie
The La La love could extend here and possibly even Colleen Atwood’s work for Fantastic Beasts, but I’ll go Jackie.
Best Editing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Hell or High Water got in as opposed to Manchester. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
This category often matches Picture and it should here, too. Hacksaw and Arrival have shots.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Todd’s Performance: 1/3
Analysis: Not so good… There were seven possibilities out of three nominees and I only was able to get Star Trek Beyond right. In place of Deadpool and Florence Foster Jenkins are A Man Called Ove and Suicide Squad.
Winner Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
I guess I’ll go with it since it’s the only one I named correctly. This could change…
Best Original Score
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Analysis: Jackie and a legitimately unforeseen Passengers got in instead of Florence Foster Jenkins and Nocturnal Animals, along with La La Land, Lion, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
The musical should win here, but Lion could possibly be an upset winner. Not likely though.
Best Original Song
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Expected nominees got in like the two from La La (“Audition” and “City of Stars”), Moana‘s “How Far I’ll Go”, and Justin Timberlake’s Trolls chart topper “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”. I went with “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street but the voters surprisingly chose “”The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story, a tune that was never even on my radar.
Winner Prediction: “City of Stars” from La La Land
It’s won the Golden Globe and should take this one.
Best Production Design
Todd’s Performance: 2/5
Analysis: Damn production designers! This one threw me for a loop as I only got Arrival and La La Land right. I whiffed on Jackie (which I was certain would get in), Nocturnal Animals (again), and Silence. In their place: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail, Caesar!, and those darn Passengers.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
La La should have this wrapped up over the competitors.
Best Sound Editing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Sully got in here instead of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, along with Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, and La La Land.
Winner Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
Could be La La, Arrival, or even Deepwater, but I’ll give this to Hacksaw for its lone win.
Best Sound Mixing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Surprise nod here for 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benghazi. I had Sully picked. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Rogue One.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
Hard to imagine La La not taking this one.
Best Visual Effects
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Deepwater Horizon and Kubo and the Two Strings made it in as opposed to Arrival (bit surprised there) and Fantastic Beasts (not as much so). Other nominees: Disney trio Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, and Rogue One.
Winner Prediction: The Jungle Book
This could be a close one with Rogue, but I’ll predict Mowgli and his amazing CG animals pals.
That leaves this official breakdown of nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Arrival, Moonlight
6 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
4 Nominations
Fences, Hell or High Water
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Jackie
2 Nominations
Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Passengers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
1 Nomination
Allied, Captain Fantastic, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fire at Sea, Hail, Caesar!, I Am Not Your Negro, Jim: The James Foley Story, The Jungle Book, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, The Lobster, Loving, My Life as a Zucchini, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Sully, Tanna, 13th, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Toni Erdmann, Trolls, 20th Century Women, Zootopia
And HERE is my current WINNER breakdown:
9 Wins
La La Land
2 Wins
Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
1 Win
Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, I Am Not Your Negro, Jackie, The Jungle Book, The Salesman, Star Trek Beyond, Zootopia
And that (whew) does it for now! You can rest assure I’ll be back shortly before the big ceremony to make final winner picks. Until then…
Three new titles debut this weekend, but none in the trio may dislodge Split from a second weekend atop the charts. The newbies are: sixth and presumably last franchise pic Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, family friendly pet tale A Dog’s Purpose, and Matthew McConaughey vehicle Gold. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
We’ll begin with Resident Evil. While all other entries in the series have managed over $20 million (except for the first in 2002), the near five-year gap between sequels should hurt this, similar to how it just hurt Underworld: Blood Wars. Still, a second place showing looks probable.
That brings us to A Dog’s Purpose. Based on a hugely successful bestseller, I had this pegged at nearly $18 million until last week when a TMZ story alleged very questionable animal handling practices on set. My feeling is that the story has gotten big enough to hurt this significantly and I now have it barely topping double digits.
As for Gold, middling reviews could hinder this one and I’ve got it outside the top five with mid single digits.
Returning champ Split had a much larger than expected debut (more on that below). Even if it dips more than 50% (typical for horror titles), I still see it remaining #1.
xXx: Return of Xander Cage had an unimpressive opening and I expect it to fall from #2 to #6. That’s because both Hidden Figures and La La Land should reap the benefits of Oscar nominations. La La, in particular, looks poised to receive the most Academy nods of any picture in history tomorrow morning and that could contribute to a bump.
And with that, my top 8 predictions for this weekend:
1. Split
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 53%)
2. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
3. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 19%)
4. A Dog’s Purpose
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 18&)
6. xXx: Return of Xander Cage
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 55%)
7. Sing
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
8. Gold
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (January 20-22)
On the weekend that we just had, maybe it’s somewhat appropriate and ironic that the #1 movie in America is titled Split. And the M. Night Shymalan pic rocketed out of the gate with a fantastic and unforeseen $40.1 million, more than doubling my teeny $19.6M estimate. This is the director’s fourth highest domestic debut, trailing Signs, The Village, and The Last Airbender. It puts the director, who’d been on a downturn until 2015’s low-budget The Visit performed well, on even more of an upswing.
xXx: Return of Xander Cage managed a middling $20.1 million in second, under my $25.4M prediction. The Diesel power is clearly stronger with his Fast and Furious franchise.
Two-week champ Hidden Figures was third with $15.7 million (a bit above my $13.7M forecast) for $83M thus far.
Sing was fourth with $9 million (I said $8.4M) to bring its tally to $249M.
Fifth place belonged to La La Land with $8.4 million (not matching my $11.4M estimate) for an $89M total. Still, as mentioned, its Oscar bump could be forthcoming.
Rogue One was sixth with $7.2 million (I said $7.8M) for a $512M haul.
#7 – Monster Trucks in weekend #2 with $7 million (I said $6.2M). Total gross: $22M.
#8 – Patriots Day, also in weekend #2 of wide release with $5.7 million (I said $7.2M). Total gross: $23M.
#9 – Sleepless in its sophomore frame with $3.4M and #10 was The Bye Bye Man, also with $3.4M in weekend 2. My respective guesstimates were $4.3M and $5.9M.
The Founder with Michael Keaton opened to stale results with $3.4 million in 11th, a bit shy of my $4.1M estimate.
Finally, two other newcomers posted low numbers as 20th Century Women expanded wide and made $1.4 million (I was higher with $2.8M) and faith-based dramedy The Resurrection of Gavin Stone earned $1.3 million (I said $1.6M).
Well, here we are folks! After four months of (almost) weekly columns predicting the nominees and dozens of individualized Oscar Watch posts, the Academy Award nominations will be officially announced on Tuesday, January 24th around 8:30AM Eastern time. These are my final predictions. I’ve pontificated all year on who and what these nominees might be, so we’ll keep this simple. I’m listing my predicted nominees in each race as well as a first and second alternative. On Tuesday evening, I’ll have a post up recounting how I did.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
First Alternate: Martin Scorsese, Silence
Second Alternate: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
First Alternate: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Joel Edgerton, Loving
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
First Alternate: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Second Alternate: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Original Screenplay
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: The Lobster
Second Alternate: Toni Erdmann
Best Animated Feature
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Zootopia
First Alternate: The Red Turtle
Second Alternate: The Little Prince
Best Documentary Feature
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
First Alternate: Gleason
Second Alternate: The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
The King’s Choice
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
First Alternate: My Life as a Zucchini
Second Alternate: It’s Only the End of the World
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
First Alternate: Silence
Second Alternate: Love & Friendship
Best Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hell or High Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond
First Alternate: A Man Called Ove
Second Alternate: Suicide Squad
Best Original Score
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Jackie
Second Alternate: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Original Song
“Audition” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
First Alternate: “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: “Faith” from Sing
Best Production Design
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Second Alternate: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Sully
Second Alternate: The Jungle Book
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: Deadpool
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: The BFG
That gives yours truly the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
10 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hell or High Water, Jackie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Captain Fantastic, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
1 Nomination
Elle, I, Daniel Blake, Finding Dory, Kubo and the Two Strings, My Life as a Zucchini, Zootopia, Cameraperson, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, The King’s Choice, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann, Allied, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sing Street, Deepwater Horizon, Sully, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book
And there you have it – my FINAL (yikes) Oscar predictions! Check back on Tuesday for the postmortem.
As if the six films crowding the MLK four-day weekend wasn’t enough this past frame, there are now five more hitting theaters in wide release on Friday. They are: Vin Diesel action sequel xXx: Return of Xander Cage, M. Night Shyamalan horror thriller Split, Michael Keaton led Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, comedic drama 20th Century Women with Annette Bening, and faith-based pic The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Mr. Diesel is likely to rule the weekend, though a higher than expected gross for Split would not surprise me (reviews are good and so are the TV spots). The three and four spots should be filled with two awards hopefuls already doing brisk business: two-week champ Hidden Figures and Best Picture front runner La La Land.
As for The Founder, it’s only debuting on 1100 screens which should hinder its potential. My $4.1 million estimate puts it just outside the top 10. I anticipate both 20th Century Women ($2.8M forecast) and Gavin Stone ($1.6M prediction) to be pretty far outside my projected 10.
And here is that top 10 from where I see it:
1. xXx: Return of Xander Cage
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
2. Split
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
3. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 22%)
5. Sing
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
7. Patriots Day
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)
8. Monster Trucks
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)
9. The Bye Bye Man
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)
10. Sleepless
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (January 13-16)
Those ladies from NASA held onto the top spot for the second weekend in a row as Hidden Figures topped the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend with earnings of $27.5 million. This is a bit above my predicted figure of $24.1M and brings its tally to $61 million.
The animated Sing was second with $19 million (past my $16.4M estimate) as it stands at a pleasing $238 million total.
LaLaLand sang and danced its way to third place one weekend after cleaning up at the Golden Globes. It earned $17.7 million (I was lower with $13.7M) and its total is at $77 million, barreling towards $100M as Oscar nominations are due next week.
RogueOne: AStarWarsStory was fourth with $16.8 million (I was close with $16.4M). The highest grosser of 2015 padded its gross to $501 million.
The top four did not include a single one of the six newbies that entered the marketplace. The biggest grosser of that group was surprisingly low-budget horror pic TheByeByeMan. It earned an impressive $15.2 million, well beyond my $8.8M projection.
Kiddie flick MonsterTrucks opened in sixth with $14.1 million. The good news? That was better than my $10.1M guesstimate. The bad news? It still had an inexplicable $115M budget and is a sizable flop.
PatriotsDay with Mark Wahlberg posted an unimpressive debut in seventh with $13.7 million, nearly $10M under my $23.6M prediction. It did garner an A+ Cinemascore so its best hope is for low drop-offs in the coming weekends.
The Jamie Foxx action thriller Sleepless premiered in eighth with a rather sleepy $9.7 million, on pace with my $10.3M take.
Underworld: BloodWars dropped to ninth in its sophomore frame with $7.2 million, just above my $6.6M projection. It’s made $25 million thus far.
Passengers rounded out the top ten with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The total is $90 million as it looks to top the century club.
Perhaps the biggest stunner of the weekend was the dismal performance of Ben Affleck’s LivebyNight. The gangster drama which received middling reviews bombed in 12th place with just $6 million, less than half of my $13.2M prediction.
Finally, Martin Scorsese’s Silence also flopped as it widened its release. The faith centered passion project for the celebrated director made just $2.3 million in 16th place, not quite reaching my $3M forecast.
Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…
In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).
On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.
Here’s how I see it all right now…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 7)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Fences (PR: 4)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Silence (PR: 6)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Jackie (PR: 14)
15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)
18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Paterson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Fences(PR: 3)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. Silence (PR: 5)
10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Zootopia (PR: 9)
10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)
7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)
8. Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
April and the Extraordinary World
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. Gleason (PR: 4)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. 13th (PR: 3)
5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)
7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 10)
10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)
7. Tanna (PR: 8)
8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
9. Paradise (PR: 7)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
7. Silence (PR: 6)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Live by Night (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Alice Through the Looking Glass
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
4. Arrival (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Silence (PR: 5)
8. Lion (PR: 7)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Deadpool (PR: 3)
3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jackie (PR: 5)
8. The BFG (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hidden Figures
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
9. Allied (PR: 6)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
5. Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 6)
7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Allied (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Captain America: Civil War
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
9. Deadpool (PR: 10)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Allied
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 5)
7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)
9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion, Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie
2 Nominations
Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.
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